Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

Do we really want to send them to coinbase? I understood they've been naughty in assisting agressive nutrino chainalyasis/analytic tactics.

Genuinely curious. What _exactly_ do you think they are doing to aid chainalysis? Divulging private customer data?

Yes

[1701705830]

1701705830

[Arriemoller]

A reporter today (or yesterday) was interviewing some biotech exec.
Exec: "We got the sequence on Jan 9, so we can now start working toward a vaccine".
Reporter: So, when it would be ready, then (implying that he, like, downloaded a pdf file and expecting a "curing" app any minute, lol)?
Exec: it usually takes 10 years, but with some "acceleration" with the help of the government, it could be done in 4 years.
Reporter: just sitting there in silence, basically. It was 'amusing' to see.

Based on H5N1 (which is really bad) it should take about 6 months tops.

Or maybe just three months.

https://www.zmescience.com/medicine/is-there-a-coronavirus-vaccine/

[makrospex]

A reporter today (or yesterday) was interviewing some biotech exec.
Exec: "We got the sequence on Jan 9, so we can now start working toward a vaccine".
Reporter: So, when it would be ready, then (implying that he, like, downloaded a pdf file and expecting a "curing" app any minute, lol)?
Exec: it usually takes 10 years, but with some "acceleration" with the help of the government, it could be done in 4 years.
Reporter: just sitting there in silence, basically. It was 'amusing' to see.

Based on H5N1 (which is really bad) it should take about 6 months tops.

Or maybe just three months.

https://www.zmescience.com/medicine/is-there-a-coronavirus-vaccine/

Interesting times, indeed.
What i am really waiting for is a profile of which and how many people typically die from nCoV, which ages, health status, social status and so on.
Could be a huge downshift in human life expectation numbers if too much goes wrong within the next six months.

[Gyrsur]

new AYH confirmed at $9444.0 on Bitstamp. the whale(s) seems to like funny figures like 444 or 666.

please no bart again!


(*) Bitstamp data timeframe 2h

this level currently does have some impact on the way above because it's the 38.2% retracement from the ATH at $19666 (100.0%) down to 2018 AYL at $3122.3 (0.0%). it's the biggest picture if you zoom out and should have also the most importance.


(*) Bitstamp data timeframe 1w

[Phil_S]

Coronavirus has spread to Finland.

Hopefully it won't survive saunas/alcohol.

[HairyMaclairy]

The 2% tail emission on Monero is too high, meaning it is not a deflationary asset.  

If it is not deflationary, then it underperforms as a store of value.

Tail emission in May 2022, when all 18.4 million Monero are mined, is 0.6 XMR per two minute block.

(0.6 x 30 = 18 XMR/h) x 24h x 365d = 157.680 XMR / year tail emission.
(157.680 / 18.4 million) x 100 = 0.85% inflation the first year. And then declining each year which probably amounts to less then is lost in tragic boating accidents.

Gold nowadays has an inflation (flow) of about 1.6%. Even in the first year of tail emission about two times as high as Monero. Gold has proven itself over a very long period to be a reliable store of value.

Think it is rather short sighted to just say: no hard cap so no store of value. And you have to remember Bitcoin is still an experiment in the grand scheme of things. Little Monero is experimenting as well and pays a small price for a guaranteed miner incentive + flexible block size (=scaling).

I am not going to argue altcoins here, but don’t only listen to the ones yelling the loudest (that is a comment to newbies reading, not you).

If you take into account lost Monero and remove those from available supply, the effective inflation rate is much higher.  If 30% of Monero are lost by May 2022, then the inflation rate is 1.2%.  The inflation rate is MUCH higher than Bitcoin which has absolute scarcity.  

Inflation may even increase if the rate of lost coins exceeds tail emissions. 

[makrospex]

Coronavirus has spread to Finland.

Hopefully it won't survive saunas/alcohol.

Bad news there. Viruses are tough as shit. Only UV-C radiation is quite effective at killing germs, bacteria and viruses (and all animals and humans, with enough watts per square centimeter of exposed skin, over exposure time).

[Arriemoller]

China no like joke.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/28/denmark-refuses-apologise-china-coronavirus-cartoon/

[Arriemoller]

Coronavirus has spread to Finland.

Hopefully it won't survive saunas/alcohol.

Bad news there. Viruses are tough as shit. Only UV-C radiation is quite effective at killing germs, bacteria and viruses (and all animals and humans, with enough watts per square centimeter of exposed skin, over exposure time).

I read that alcohol kills it, and temperatures above 57 degrees C.

[Stavri]

50 day moving avarage and 200 day moving avarage is getting closer. Bitcoin jumped up till x3 when last time that happened. Hope we can see the same movement this time 

[Phil_S]

Election season in USA is always amusing, but also a bit scary...

[makrospex]

Coronavirus has spread to Finland.

Hopefully it won't survive saunas/alcohol.

Bad news there. Viruses are tough as shit. Only UV-C radiation is quite effective at killing germs, bacteria and viruses (and all animals and humans, with enough watts per square centimeter of exposed skin, over exposure time).

I read that alcohol kills it, and temperatures above 57 degrees C.

Not corona viruses, afaik.
Best source i found on a quick search: https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/480245-fda-tells-purell-that-its-products-cant-treat-or

High temperatures kill viruses, correct. But you need exposed viruses and for a longer time. UVC kills within seconds with a quartz lamp of 30w quoted power and a distance of a few centimeters. If a human could survive a raised core temperature of 60° celsius for an hour, this would be an easy cure. But that isn't the case.
The problem is, the virus is carried in a life supporting environment, the body, and spread by attaching to drops (mucosa) and skin particles outside.

EDIT: The tradeoff of using UVC on the human skin is that it does way more harm to viruses (and bacteria) in a short exposure time than to the human skin, but it's still dangerous. Not many lamps out there that suppress ozone generation, too. One has to research a lot about the safe usage of these lamps before he knows how to avoid endangering human health with them.

A low power directional uvc light source above any door in public areas, directed at the handle from above, would be a huge help in exposition prophylaxe. I saw these hanging over the counters of some fast food restaurants already. Hospitals and airports, all public builings could benefit from that but there's the human affinity to dumbness on the other side of the equation. Putting on masks and feeling safe...

[makrospex]

Election season in USA is always amusing, but also a bit scary...

Roach in jail?
Image the vacuum of fake news in WO  

[HairyMaclairy]

OK, corn. Need you at $20k ASAP pls. Would like to rescue Rick from wage slavery. Shit is getting fucking retarded at his job, yo.

Sheeit.

Hey now.  I thought it was $10k.

[FullNode]

City of Zermatt Switzerland Now Accepts Tax Payments in Bitcoin

https://cointelegraph.com/news/city-of-zermatt-switzerland-now-accepts-tax-payments-in-bitcoin/amp

[serveria.com]

OK, corn. Need you at $20k ASAP pls. Would like to rescue Rick from wage slavery. Shit is getting fucking retarded at his job, yo.

Sheeit.

Not selling a single satoshi at $20k. If I wanted to sell @$20k would have sold back in 2017. Have to charge my "hodling fee" so I guess I'm selling some limited q-ty at $50k at least.  

[serveria.com]

Voted >$350,000 in the poll    call me a retarded bull and moonboi.

[serveria.com]

Coronavirus has spread to Finland.

Hopefully it won't survive saunas/alcohol.

... and death metal!   

[makrospex]

Voted >$350,000 in the poll    call me a retarded bull and moonboi.

If you win, i'll send you another 0.01 BTC  

[bitebits]

If you take into account lost Monero and remove those from available supply, the effective inflation rate is much higher.  If 30% of Monero are lost by May 2022, then the inflation rate is 1.2%.  The inflation rate is MUCH higher than Bitcoin which has absolute scarcity.  

Inflation may even increase if the rate of lost coins exceeds tail emissions.  

The beauty of an 'opaque blockchain' is that you can't even do a guesstimate how many coins are lost. Your argument that lost coins increase the real inflation rate (flow versus stock) applies equally to Bitcoin. It is however likely that way less Monero private keys are lost since Bitcoin mined its first block in 2009 and was completely new to the world, while Monero launched in 2014. People learn.

Bitcoin is inflationary until the last block with a reward is mined in 2140. The current inflation rate is 3.87%, after the halvening it will be roughly 1.8%. It takes another halvening for Bitcoin to roughly match the Monero inflation rate, not considering it is likely that more Bitcoins are lost than Moneros.


Better arguments why Bitcoin is a (way) better SoV than any other coin is the first mover advantage. The highest network security by (a seemingly ever increasing) hashrate. An unmatched peer reviewed code by some of the best developers in the space, etc. I know where I would store the majority of my wealth.

Do hope though that over time Bitcoin's fungibility gets the priority and attention it deserves, something that could be holding Bitcoin back becoming a true or wider adopted SoV IMHO.