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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25463862 times)
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JayJuanGee
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January 14, 2020, 08:30:39 PM

CME did more BTC Options volume on Day 1 than Bakkt did today.
RIP Bakkt
Hardly knew you

Tiny bit early to judge, nonetheless gutting for Rekkt Bakkt

Bakkt trades options eventually settling into real Bitcoins.
CME   trades options eventually settling into shitcoin US Dollars.

Difference is not trivial.

Usual self-promoting ad:
Everything you wanted to know about BTC options but were afraid to ask!

Yeah, but in practice, is it really true?  Are we making a distinction without a difference?

Does BAKKT really have the bitcoins that they proclaim to have?

This is a naive question, bringing me some interesting other question, I will later try to answer.

Go for the naive part: Bakkt has the Bitcoin? YES.
How do I know? Contract specification.

When you own a future, you are constantly (well, at COB) called to margin your positions. This means that when you open a position in a future you are required to post a certain amount of cash along your position. You cannot open a position if you haven’t a big enough amount of cash in a collateral cash balance at the exchange. This amount is set by the exchange to cover the daily variation of the underlying (BTC, in this case, but this mechanism is valid for any underlying). At the end of the trading day this cash  balance is adjusted to reflect the P&L of the future position: money is poured in if your future position has gone in the right direction, otherwise the exchange take from this account the daily loss (and transfer it to your counterpart). In case the residual cash balance is lower than the initial margin, you are called to refill your margins (the infamous “margin call”, or to close forced into closing the position). This means two things: firstly the exchange has no credit risk: every counterpart has a daily margining so their exposure is not too big, second the P&L is actually credited daily in the exchange, so frauds are very limited.
So, can BAKKT exit scam you? Very unlikely, as this is the opposite way this business works (also:  BAKKT and maybe CME would suffer a tremendous reputation as risk putting their own existence at risk in case of a default).

The hard part in all this reasoning: is this margining all done in BTC? As per my explaination it should. But I don’t remember anything like that in the product specification. I wil check later, when real life settles a litttle bit.
I am going also to put this answer in my future related thread, as it is a point I would have liked to cover, but I actually didn’t.

Thanks for the explanation.

I doubt that my question is as naive as you had proclaimed it to be, but hey time will tell if there is screwing around with what are supposed to be BTC reserves in such a way that they cannot be settled after BIG runs that might go on for extended periods of time, and the BIGGEST of tests would be periods in which bitcoin prices keep going up beyond expectations... including something like a period in June 2017 to December 2017 when, largely, the BTC top ended up being about 3x to 5x higher than the most bullish of expectations, and there could even be fuel in which we end up experiencing even more bullish runs when these kinds of BIG money are more in place and they want to screw over shorters in such a way that goes way the hell beyond expectations..

real world tests that might involve 10s of thousands of bitcoins over several months that are continuing to run against expectations and necessity to actually pay up rather than what it says on paper about what is supposed to happen.
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BITCOIN. BUY&HODL!


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January 14, 2020, 08:32:03 PM
Merited by suchmoon (4)




1. Finding a local bottom. Should be at 1300-3000 range.

2. As it dropped fast - as it should bounce fast to retest lost $6000 level and log trend at around 10000-20000. 2019-2020 AD.

3. Then it should fall back to ~6000 support. This should happen up to 2020 AD.

4. Go to new highs. Beyond 2020 year.


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/
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January 14, 2020, 08:41:15 PM

The Bitcoin SV pump is based on CSW's saying that the bonded courier actually showed up with the tulip trust keys. In other words, he says he's now in possession of 1 million or so BTC (half of which is supposed to go to the Kleimans).

https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-craig-wrights-courier/

If only there were a way for him to prove that they keys arrived and that he truly is (along with Kleiman) Satoshi.

If only...

So is he saying it will be like back to the future? So some guy who says "we were betting at the office if someone would be at this crossroads in 2020"
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nothing to see here


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January 14, 2020, 08:44:03 PM
Last edit: January 14, 2020, 09:05:26 PM by makrospex

Has anybody here ever bought BSV?

Please, be honest guys. I could do with a good laugh.

OK, here is my good laugh:  Cheesy

No, srsly:

I sold my BCH asap, six days after the fork, IIRC.
So i would not even have had "free" BSV.

As a part of a small trade, to help someone (...) out with some satoshis, really peanuts to most of you - and as a sign of good will - i bought BSV up to 20% of my past BTC "trading stash", which was in the tenths regions, and sold them with a little gain, around 10-15% percent up, about two weeks later when the market wasn't as "trading-friendly" any more. I cut the total gain in half and sent one half off to the receivers wallet, one half was left at the exchange. Fun fact: I received about the same amount by theymos for my art piece later. If some of you believe in Karma...

That's it. I wouldn't buy BSV for hodling, never ever.

EDIT: another classic: My first BTC transaction, as a test, was hijacked by a trojan and - of course - lost.
0,01 at $3k price levels, but still... I was glad that it happened so early, learned a lot by that and it wasn't a really big loss (in fiat equivalent, back then).
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nothing to see here


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January 14, 2020, 08:54:42 PM

Username beginning with D ?

I may disclose some private information about myself here more than occasionally, but never about anybody else.
Sorry

EDIT: I see some support at $8.7k
LIKE  Grin
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January 14, 2020, 08:59:34 PM

What is this?  Like, three fucking hours without an AYH?

what the fuck?
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nothing to see here


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January 14, 2020, 09:01:35 PM

What is this?  Like, three fucking hours without an AYH?

what the fuck?

Some BTC going into alts?
Wait for the return  Wink

EDIT: Is "alts" even appropiate any more in WO?
Alternatives? "s(c)ats", "shitoshis", "craps", "wankers" ... ?
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January 14, 2020, 09:05:18 PM

I'm just glad that LTC seems to have finally turned the corner

daddy's got bags
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January 14, 2020, 09:21:57 PM

Daddy better get new bags soon. Roll Eyes
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January 14, 2020, 09:23:58 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

CME did more BTC Options volume on Day 1 than Bakkt did today.
RIP Bakkt
Hardly knew you

Tiny bit early to judge, nonetheless gutting for Rekkt Bakkt

Bakkt trades options eventually settling into real Bitcoins.
CME   trades options eventually settling into shitcoin US Dollars.

Difference is not trivial.

Usual self-promoting ad:
Everything you wanted to know about BTC options but were afraid to ask!

Yeah, but in practice, is it really true?  Are we making a distinction without a difference?

Does BAKKT really have the bitcoins that they proclaim to have?

This is a naive question, bringing me some interesting other question, I will later try to answer.

Go for the naive part: Bakkt has the Bitcoin? YES.
How do I know? Contract specification.

When you own a future, you are constantly (well, at COB) called to margin your positions. This means that when you open a position in a future you are required to post a certain amount of cash along your position. You cannot open a position if you haven’t a big enough amount of cash in a collateral cash balance at the exchange. This amount is set by the exchange to cover the daily variation of the underlying (BTC, in this case, but this mechanism is valid for any underlying). At the end of the trading day this cash  balance is adjusted to reflect the P&L of the future position: money is poured in if your future position has gone in the right direction, otherwise the exchange take from this account the daily loss (and transfer it to your counterpart). In case the residual cash balance is lower than the initial margin, you are called to refill your margins (the infamous “margin call”, or to close forced into closing the position). This means two things: firstly the exchange has no credit risk: every counterpart has a daily margining so their exposure is not too big, second the P&L is actually credited daily in the exchange, so frauds are very limited.
So, can BAKKT exit scam you? Very unlikely, as this is the opposite way this business works (also:  BAKKT and maybe CME would suffer a tremendous reputation as risk putting their own existence at risk in case of a default).

The hard part in all this reasoning: is this margining all done in BTC? As per my explanation it should. But I don’t remember anything like that in the product specification. I will check later, when real life settles a little bit.
I am going also to put this answer in my future related thread, as it is a point I would have liked to cover, but I actually didn’t.


Well then what are the addresses?
JayJuanGee
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January 14, 2020, 09:39:04 PM
Merited by dragonvslinux (1)

That's my bullish input for all you moon boys anyway.

Not going to win too many friends in these parts by referring to peeps here (and assumingly HODLers and accumulators) as moon boys.  But, hey, do what you feel that you must.

Sorry, that BTC prices are moving against your anticipations  Cry...... Not really. Tongue

It's ok I'm not looking for friends, just to learn from others  Tongue

Fair enough.  I am similar in regards to merely attempting to share information and sometimes even be combative in terms of ideas that might be taken too personally from time to time, when they are meant to be substantive assertions.

So sometimes if any of us calls another a dumbass or some other inflammatory assertion, it may be attempting to exaggerate a substantive assertion rather than any kind of personal attack.

You're right, it did go against how I anticipated though, not going to deny that  Wink

The trouble with any assertions of price direction is attempting to assign the right probabilities and even then still getting the matter wrong.  So, even though I have seen recent analysis from you that were going in both directions, I had concluded that you were anticipating more down rather than up, but cannot really fault you for that, just picking on you a bit.  Your analysis do not tend to be too unreasonable, so it can be difficult to disagree when you at least attempt to back them up and even allow for reasonable anticipations that the price might move against your predictions from time to time.


Lucky I didn't get rekt™ shorting really.

I would hope that most experienced short term traders do anticipate losing on trades from time to time, and sure some traders will win more often than others or protect their position more than others.

I surely don't proclaim to be a short-term trader, even though I engage in practices that are similar to short-term traders by creating both buy orders or sell orders, but I rarely will adjust my trade orders based on my expectations of price movements because I barely have any confidence regarding my own expectations that go much beyond a few percentage point changes in one direction or another and usually NOT enough for me to change my behaviors much if any. 
 

Didn't realise moon boys was offensive though, I thought anyone who believes a $100K BTC is possible in the near future was a moon boy by default. We're all moon boys? Maybe men still get offended by being called boys I dunno, I forget to keep check of these things.

I am not exactly sure why it is offensive either, but I can tell by reading it that it is problematic to be generalizing and using diminuitive terms that lump everyone into the same category while suggesting that you are not in that category.

Your first comment did not seem to include yourself into the "moon boy" category, so it seemed that you were referring to others in this thread, and maybe even criticizing one of the prominent lauded qualities of folks in this thread, which is the BTC HODLer and accumulators.

I do believe that there are all kinds of variations in the expectations of thread participants regarding how far and how fast they expect BTC to arrive at certain price points, including how much certainty is assigned to such predictions.  Sure, some of us talk about those ideas more than others, but even with that opinions vary amongst members and even vary within the same member if asked during a dip or a pump or even with the passage of time. Look at mindrust, he is all over the place, and that is part of his human endearingness, but he still seems to be attempting to follow a practice to maximize his accumulation of BTC.. and even doing some dumb things (or having some dumb ideas) along the way and trying to learn from that.  His learning teaches many of the rest of us and allows us to learn or even share some of our own mistakes or even some of our bad thinking in regards to our bitcoin strategies or even figuring out if we might need to control our emotions a bit more or to have some more emotions.. including getting carried away.. including yours truly from time to time.. 

Yeah, some of us can become quite stubborn or even abrasive in our presentation of ideas (including yours truly), but there is still a lot of variation, even with HODLers and accumulators... and surely a lot of us here share another commonality, which are disinclinations towards people talking down the BTC price, so in that sense maybe we can be considered moon boys in that regard, but you can likely appreciate that many active participators in this thread come to this thread and investing into bitcoin in order to want to see bitcoin succeed, so there seems to be some cognitive dissonance when people are participating in a thread like this but talking against bitcoin, so that remains part of the reason why bears are going to naturally have a harder time and more of a need to back up their statements of certitude.


Maybe moon men would be more appropriate, but doesn't have the ring to it.

Probably more about the way you say it rather than what you say... and yeah, I am not always the nicest chap in the thread, and I surely have received my share of criticisms and even deeply felt dislikes by some members, but some times points can be made without adding insults... I would agree that if your comment had seemed to include yourself as a fellow moon boy, then with that kind of tone, then it would NOT have been as offensive.. but you know that you were using the term as a differentiator and even a kind of dig rather than suggesting that you were in the same group, and maybe even a bit of an emotional dig because BTC's price is continuing to have upwards pressures that might continue to go against your short term expectations.

Regarding my current short-term BTC expectations, I don't really know what to think. It is feeling kind of bullish, but I understand that the upwards movement can stop at any time.  And, we surely cannot ignore what is going on in the alt coin space and/or considerations regarding whether those pumpenings are going to end up affecting BTC price dynamics.. fuck.. you never really know.  The whole space could continue to pump for a while, or it could just implode.. I could implode proportionately or it could implode with inverse correlations.  Who the fuck expected that scam coin Bcash sv to pump 200%.. and yeah, folks like jbreher or even some of the other bcash supporters will be gloating, but still those outrageous moves can end up wreaking all kinds of havoc in the short term that is not really easy to predict with any degree of certainty, and I suppose that most of the experienced and successful traders will be hedging in various ways to the extent that they do not have a large amount of insider knowledge about some material event(s).
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January 14, 2020, 10:22:54 PM

What is this?  Like, three fucking hours without an AYH?

what the fuck?

BSV———> that is a WTF situation........

People losing there mind  Roll Eyes people will lose some more wealth.......
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January 14, 2020, 10:24:31 PM

Btw ... did anyone saw 1917 already ?? I have to wait till Thursday but I’m so excited  Cheesy
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January 14, 2020, 10:32:17 PM

Btw ... did anyone saw 1917 already ?? I have to wait till Thursday but I’m so excited  Cheesy
Critical drinker watched it last night and couldnt wait to do a non spoiler review of it.
Lets say he gave his "did not puke" approval for it.

You will enjoy my dude friend! Grin
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January 14, 2020, 10:35:32 PM

The Bitcoin SV pump is based on CSW's saying that the bonded courier actually showed up with the tulip trust keys. In other words, he says he's now in possession of 1 million or so BTC (half of which is supposed to go to the Kleimans).

https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-craig-wrights-courier/

If only there were a way for him to prove that they keys arrived and that he truly is (along with Kleiman) Satoshi.

If only...


You mean prove, cryptographically that he is Satoshi Nakamoto by signing a message?

That’s asking for too much Wink

To be fair...he may not know how to do that.

Can someone explain that to him so he can prove he's Satoshi?

So when he subsequently fails to move any coins or sign any messages, how are the (what are we calling SV believers these days? Morons? Is it morons?) morons going to explain it?


how do you call a con that succeeds in making the con-artist gobs of money....

"The Sting"

Quote
Dr. Wright notifies the Court that a third party has provided
the necessary information and key slice to unlock the encrypted file, and Dr. Wright has
produced a list of his bitcoin holdings, as ordered by the Magistrate Judge, to plaintiffs today.

...there was also a note attached saying "Hi this is Dave and i'd like to say that CSW is real Satoshi and all of these BTC belong to him and i don't have a claim to any of it so my brother shouldn't even attempt to sue. Roll Eyes

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536/gov.uscourts.flsd.521536.376.0_1.pdf

Sounds like he took his time to come up with a list of possible Satoshi's public addresses. Hopefully they'll publish it, so internetz could scrutinize them. Don't hold your breath waiting for any proof that he actually has any private keys. He'll drag this out till the end of trial, even then when he looses and ordered to pay, he has about a year to transfer all of his IP under nChain and his assets under his wife, declare bankruptcy and good luck to Kleiman trying to collect on the judgement. He's job is to keep the myth alive as long as possible, without any proof that he has access to private keys
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January 14, 2020, 10:36:08 PM

What is this?  Like, three fucking hours without an AYH?

what the fuck?

BSV———> that is a WTF situation........

People losing there mind  Roll Eyes people will lose some more wealth.......

I've also heard good reports.  I am sue the Dude will approve, or maybe abide Wink

It's on my list, too.
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January 14, 2020, 10:36:10 PM

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January 14, 2020, 10:39:35 PM

C'mon Bitcoin, just one more AYH tonight, do it for Jojo?
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January 14, 2020, 10:44:51 PM

C'mon Bitcoin, just one more AYH tonight, do it for Jojo?
Which Jojo? The one from Bad boys  Cool https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhQCvplbkQs
or the boomerang gal Grin ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADzksV0mOmI
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January 14, 2020, 10:46:16 PM

nice

BS  V   sold at .042


ca  CHING
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