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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26392003 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
fillippone
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January 29, 2020, 10:05:06 PM
Last edit: January 29, 2020, 10:38:14 PM by fillippone

Dear Wo'ers.
I stumbled on a very intresting thread on Twitter.
My italian friend Giacomo Zucco was triggered, so I decided to share:

[PAXOS+COINJOIN]Your privacy is a threat to exchange business?#deletepaxos

TL,DR: Exchange punishing users because they do CoinJoin Rounds AFTER they withdraw their funds.

Basically you have to be really careful: everyone want to put their greasy hands on your precious coins.




Well this is just another highlight of the fact there is a fungability issue.

I think that no one can deny fungibility is the main/only issue in bitcoin protocol (forget scaling, that is bullshit).
This is why there is so much research in that direction.

Edit: fixed horrible quoting
jbreher
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January 29, 2020, 10:05:47 PM
Last edit: January 29, 2020, 10:34:25 PM by jbreher

Bittrex hasn't fucked me...yet

Bittrex has been OK for me for trading.

For getting value out.... not so much.

do tell

I just did.

They'll do it. Fairly reliably. But only for trivial amounts. Unless they've had a recent change of policy.



Edit: Just went to check. Yes, they have had a change of policy. At least in terms of data I need to divulge in order to use the site:

Hueristic
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January 29, 2020, 10:06:16 PM

Do we really want to send them to coinbase? I understood they've been naughty in assisting agressive nutrino chainalyasis/analytic tactics.

Genuinely curious. What _exactly_ do you think they are doing to aid chainalysis? Divulging private customer data?


They divulged mine.



So you have no proof that they are using such data to nefarious ends? That's certainly what it appears you are saying.

Your closing statement is topologically identical to 'Google/Amazon/Facebook is consolidating power to break and prevent privacy in all aspects of life'. Which could be a true statement, but I bet there is not one in a hundred persons reading this that does not deal with at least one of those organizations from time to time.

I do but I will not share.
jbreher
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January 29, 2020, 10:07:29 PM

Do we really want to send them to coinbase? I understood they've been naughty in assisting agressive nutrino chainalyasis/analytic tactics.

Genuinely curious. What _exactly_ do you think they are doing to aid chainalysis? Divulging private customer data?


They divulged mine.

Ouch.

Which data? That required by the jurisdiction in which you are domiciled? Or something actually nefarious?
JayJuanGee
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January 29, 2020, 10:48:51 PM

Another bull flag move to $9,800 looks possible this evening, even if my gut feeling is for some more consolidation/correction before higher highs.

Preserve your gut within its current status, even if it feels a bit uncomfortable for you, on a personal level...

In other words, take one for the team... we don't want anymore bear calls from you... NONE....

You will thank me later.

 Wink

Bears are part of the game. I am still not all in.

Can I order a flash crash to $5500 please?

Stahp it.....


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January 29, 2020, 11:11:26 PM

Seems to me that you are referring to a few important principles that any investor into bitcoin needs to keep in mind,

So the principles that you seem to be suggesting in regards to bitcoin would be 1) don't invest any more than you can afford to lose, 2) live within your means and 3) attempt to build your BTC portfolio over time - without trying to rush it with too many risky practices.

Regarding getting these kinds of returns with any other investment, I don't really buy that.. and again, did I say fuck alt coins?  

I never mentioned altcoins. That would be something else personally. In fact, I do not ever invest into altcoins, I merely get paid in them, so all my altcoins (or most of them) were earned.

Even if you were not emphasizing alts, you mentioned them sufficiently enough in order for the matter to be addressed in my response, and my response is not merely at you, but instead an attempt to address the whole issue.. and surely an opportunity for me to assert, several times, that the same principles regarding investing into bitcoin do NOT necessarily apply to alts unless the system is considerably tweaked in terms of the need to have to watch your investment a whole fucking a lot more.

Here's your words:

>>>>>>>You'd think someone who "earned" almost all his coins, (and alts)<<<<<<<<

which is enough for me, to attempt to address the matter.


The important principles are those that have long been said in the traditional fiat investing world which include what you said and bunch of others, eventually anyone long enough in the space should figure out or learn the hard way.

Sure, probably the best teacher is experience, but we do not each have to get fucking reckt in order to attempt to learn strategies in order to attempt to avoid getting reckt.

I surely don't proclaim to be an expert about any of this, so surely I am talking from my own experiences, but I learned quite early in life that I should be trying to use time to my advantage and that I should always live within my means and also attempt to be stacking away small parts along the way.   I was doing that about 30 years before I started in Bitcoin, and surely I made a lot of mistakes along the way, but there were quite a few mistakes that I avoided too, by attempting to think through my own situation in terms of my own needs regarding consumption versus investment and what kinds of assets I was more willing to take risks on and surely attempting to measure risks can be really difficult too...



Stuff about SWR, compounded interest, dollar cost averaging, being consistent ... be that, if you act like you are investing for your retirement like a lot of other people would using low fee index funds or something close to a total stock market fund, VTSAX or BlackRock's equivalent, or even just a basic S&P 500 ... and you treat bitcoin exactly the same way, and keep doing the same thing for the next 20 years, yes, you will get rich as much as you like by the time you need to cash it out, if you never touch it until then.

I had to look up SWR, and see that it is "safe withdrawal rate."

O.k. largely there are some truths in what you say above in terms of trying to figure out asset classes and how to allocate, but also sometimes in the beginning you just have to start out with one or two investments because it is NOT really worth spreading out your investment, and thinking too much about SWR, in the beginning would be way too premature because you are so damned embedded into just accumulating and building bare basics and also probably just figuring out how to manage your cash flow to figure out how much is safe to invest without over doing it.  A lot of the mistakes of beginner investors is that they get into investing into too many fucking things.. and they gotta get their lives in order first to figure out whether they safely can invest $10 per week or if they have enough cashflow that they will be able to invest $50 per week..

And, also, just trying to control impulses not to consume too much.  I don't need to buy a new car, and maybe a scooter will do or a bicycle, at least for a few years while I am building my nest egg.  How about living in shared dwellings rather than having a place to myself, can save a whole hell of a lot of money to make a few extra dollars available for investing.. and just making sure that the investor has enough cash for emergencies that are almost inevitable to come up.. especially if you do not adequately prepare or think about the matter.   Of course some people might have mommy and daddy that will bail them out, but sometimes there is a certain comfort to NOT having to employ that option (if you have it) or keeping that option for the really BIG screw ups, if they happen.. which some people do live on the edge more and more and end up employing those kinds of emergency options too often so that they get kind of fucked when they keep getting into those kinds of pickles and then don't have those kinds of options including sometimes the benefits that can come from building up credit too...

That's what I was trying to say anyway. But no.. Very few will actually do this even after reading this post. I'll try to do it myself, but I have other problems I have to deal with at the moment, like trying to survive.

For sure that is true.. for sure, it takes a long ass time to build your investment, even when there is an investment that is as good as bitcoin, but if guys (and gal) try to rush their investment, the odds of getting fucked, even by bitcoin, increase stupendously.... Again, fuck alt coins... did I mention that, yet?   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
JayJuanGee
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January 29, 2020, 11:19:32 PM

Another bull flag move to $9,800 looks possible this evening, even if my gut feeling is for some more consolidation/correction before higher highs.

Preserve your gut within its current status, even if it feels a bit uncomfortable for you, on a personal level...

In other words, take one for the team... we don't want anymore bear calls from you... NONE....

You will thank me later.

 Wink

Bears are part of the game. I am still not all in.

Can I order a flash crash to $5500 please?

I think a flash crash to sub $6K is a bit much to ask, maybe better chance of ordering of a slow grind back down to continue to bear trend over the next few months, until the halving with an eventual break of $6K. While looking bullish, we still haven't made a higher high (above $10.5K) or the long-term downtrend from $20K (lined up at $10K), and therefore topping out and breaking key support (probably $8.2K and $7.2K levels) would definitely indicate a continuation of the bear trend (lower highs and lower lows). That said, the chances of sub $6K are becoming increasingly less as time moves on, about $100 a week based on the 200 Week MA (currently at $5266).

Just because price is looking extremely bullish, is above the 200 Day MA, broken out of a bear channel, above the MA ribbons and guppy on the Weekly, and given a hash ribbons buy signal on all time-frames (as well as many other bullish factors)... it still doesn't fully negative the bearish structure of lower highs and lower lows.

I liked your earlier gut, better.

You must have taken a gut pill or something, and screwed everything up?    Cry Cry Cry
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January 30, 2020, 12:17:44 AM
Merited by Bitcoinaire (1)

Visiting the "Speculation" section of this forum...it's like shooting fish in a barrel. It's no fun.

98% of the visitors seem to be English 2nd or 3rd language and all they do is compare the price to 2018 or 2019.

I guess everyone who was here in 2013 got so wealthy they had no reason to be on a forum anymore. Too bad, there were some decent conversations then.

Sometimes I go on twitter, where all the "crypto experts" joined in 2017 or 2018 and try to save people from themselves. I tell them things like "people said the exact same thing, using the exact same chart back in 2011 and again in 2014 and then again 2015 and you are making the same mistake they did." But it doesn't help. They are destined to miss out on the next bull run and wind up exactly where they are.

It's pretty amazing after 10 years of bull, there are still people like Tone Vays who are poor.

I hope anyone reading on this thread who is newer than 2015 just buys as much of BTC as you can and just hold for the next 3 years. Thats all you have to do. 3 actions (one of which is a non-action).  Buy as much as you can. Hold for 3 years. Then sell if you'd like.

So easy. But the hardest skill in the world for the majority of people.
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January 30, 2020, 12:33:59 AM


I guess everyone who was here in 2013 got so wealthy they had no reason to be on a forum anymore.

That's not true for all old timers.

There seem to be a lot of posters who automatically assume that if you've been around for a long time you're fooking loaded which must make those who know the truth groan.

yeah was almost amusing in a way till one gets tired of it, and ive only been doing it since 2011.

i mined btc with gpus in 2011-12 or so. sure, got some corn. at like $2 USD per btc. big deal. well of course now but then..

i remember testing various wallets and OS distros, blew some stuff up. so 5 btc in a wonky wallet? pfft just forget about it, not worth the 10 minutes to fix it. pool held back? just go to another pool. exchanges wiping out, shady shovel salesmen, hardware/software failure, being stupid. etc

im surprised i managed to keep anything really.



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January 30, 2020, 12:38:19 AM

I spent some time in Japan recently and learned that most toilets come with drinking fountains.  This is truly ingenious. 



you would NOT want to drink from any toilet i use. actually you wouldnt want to drink water anywhere within 30 feet or so. rough estimate that, i may give a safer minimum distance later

Why, is this similar to you using a toilet?



Are this bloke's services required after you've finished?

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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 30, 2020, 12:59:04 AM



eeeeww
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January 30, 2020, 01:40:16 AM


So that's a no then?
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January 30, 2020, 02:00:47 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1), Icygreen (1)

Just having a look at recent history and thinking out loud, Last time we were here was mid June 2019 but price got all bubbly and ran past 10k quickly.
Then finally and reluctantly fell from 10K in September.  Seems logical to expect more resistance into 10K this time vs. the bubbles that blazed  through times before. Only difference now is it would appear that not so many people care this time, Google trends show bitcoin interest at a low for the past 12 months. https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=bitcoin&geo=US

According to the charts I'd expect resistance but Bitcoin loves to surprise.
Do we retrace now, closer to 10K, or does it get bubbly well past 10K?
Some sideways for a week or 2 would be welcomed.

I agree that we should hope for a more gentle rise.

I think we should see price action that resembles 2015-2017 but I think on a slightly faster time scale.  The longer it takes for the parabolic rise to start, the longer it will go I think.

That said there are some fundamental differences.

Firstly, Bitcoin is a household word now-a-days.  Most people think the bubble happened at the end of 17, and the run to 13kish was a giant dead cat bounce.  But when they realize that BTC is making a new run for it they will pile in like crazy.

The next hurdle will be when fees explode.  As much as I think scaling on chain is a mistake, it is going to be a powerful narrative once fees become expensive.  Most of us have been through the bock size debates and reached our conclusion.  But retail will be charmed by the whole "LOW FEES" and "THIS IS THE NEXT/REAL BITCOIN" arguments.  So we should see the big blockers come out of the woodwork.  We might even see orchestrated attacks on the Bitcoin blockchain again as well.

Relevant questions are:

-How much difference will segwit make (and the slight block increase) this time around?
-Hopefully most exchanges are batching transaction now?
-How ready are Layer 2 networks?
     -I think Liquid can take a lot of pressure off in terms of intra exchange traffic
     -Will LN be ready enough to start to work?
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January 30, 2020, 02:09:31 AM

So to answer the enormous question on everyone's minds right now, is it a block halving or block halvening? Google claims that more users are interested in the halving, rather than the halvening, regardless of the latter's grammatical incorrectness. It's safe to assume that Google's user's do not care of grammatical correctness. More relevantly, searches for the halving event recently reached an all time high. Searches for the halvening didn't reach all time high.



Suggestion: Let's roll with the grammatically incorrect phrasing of the block halving, rather than halvening, for the benefit of google searches.
(Even my spell checker wants to call it the halving, take the hint)

halvening, halving?
the same search - but google gets
to know YOU better





#tinfoil
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January 30, 2020, 02:27:21 AM
Last edit: January 30, 2020, 02:47:21 AM by HI-TEC99
Merited by BobLawblaw (1)

Coronavirus has spread to Finland.

These are the cities most ‘at risk’ of seeing cases of coronavirus.

Quote
    Bangkok
    Hong Kong
    Taipei
    Seoul
    Tokyo
    Singapore
    Phuket
    Osaka
    Kuala Lumpur
    Macau
    Denpasar Bali
    Sydney
    Chiang Mai
    Melbourne
    Los Angeles
    New York
    Dubai
    Nha Trang, Vietnam
    London
    Ho Chi Minh City
    Nagoya
    Kota Kinabalu
    Phnom Penh
    Krabi
    Manila  
    Siem Reap
    Paris
    Jakarta
    Kaohsiung
    Frankfurt


The study the list came from is here.

https://www.worldpop.org/events/china

https://www.worldpop.org/resources/docs/china/WorldPop-coronavirus-spread-risk-analysis-v1-25Jan.pdf
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January 30, 2020, 03:05:28 AM
Merited by mindrust (2)

According to Lee, an emerging Bull waking up ..

Quote
Bitcoin moved back above its 200-day moving average on 1/27... positive milestone and reinforcing 2020 shaping up to be great year for $BTC #bitcoin

- whenever BTC >200D, win-rate (6M forward) jumps to 80% and essentially "re-entering" bull market (>200D)



Twitter: https://twitter.com/fundstrat/status/1222566246455160832

Quote
Lee has also stated that Bitcon’s year-to-date gain of 26% represent the largest of any major asset class, with the cryptocurrency’s use as a safe haven asset being a likely contributor. It’s also worth noting that BTC price has moved up further since this tweet.

Quote
Bitcoin is best performing asset class YTD +26%... demand for "safe haven" is boosting Bitcoin and arguably, #Bitcoin is seen as a better "safe haven" than $Gold #gold

- Gold is up a decent 3% vs a whopping 26% for Bitcoin


Twitter: https://twitter.com/fundstrat/status/1222301926936715265

Source: https://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-is-re-entering-a-bull-market-fundstrats-tom-lee-confirms/
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January 30, 2020, 03:12:58 AM

Breaking the old all time high will signal to the plebs that bitcoin is not dead and actually alive and surging. Money will once again pile in and the good times will be back.
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January 30, 2020, 03:21:21 AM

There's lots of speculation that china is downplaying the actual figures too, it's probably much higher.

Coronavirus


https://twitter.com/StockBoardAsset/status/1222688399607332864
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January 30, 2020, 04:11:36 AM

Do we really want to send them to coinbase? I understood they've been naughty in assisting agressive nutrino chainalyasis/analytic tactics.

Genuinely curious. What _exactly_ do you think they are doing to aid chainalysis? Divulging private customer data?
I'm not accusing them of anything illegal however since Coinbase acquired Neutrino, now they have the largest on ramp and customer base with chainalysis rolled together. Not only is it a honeypot for leaks, its recreating the same privacy invasive, centralized practices familiar in today's banking. While understanding the merits of such, I prefer to support smaller privacy focused on ramps in efforts to avoid ultimately enslaving the population with an 'all seeing' Gov. Bitcoin.
To answer your question directly, Coinbase is consolidating power to break and prevent privacy in Bitcoin.  #deletecoinbase

So you have no proof that they are using such data to nefarious ends? That's certainly what it appears you are saying.

Your closing statement is topologically identical to 'Google/Amazon/Facebook is consolidating power to break and prevent privacy in all aspects of life'. Which could be a true statement, but I bet there is not one in a hundred persons reading this that does not deal with at least one of those organizations from time to time.
You' are correct, no proofs from me. I'm unable to afford the luxury or patience to await proof so I must rely on intuition, experience and history (Sometimes referred to as logic) If that condemns me to your special snowflake pile, oh well, I guess I'll have to live with that Roll Eyes
As a society we've already given our private lives to Facebook, our data to Google and our shopping habits to Amazon.  I'm guilty but unprepared to drive the final nail into the coffin relinquishing our financial privacy simply because I was duped into the previous.
 I'm not sure what point you'd like to make with your closing statement. Are you saying that since we've already given some of our information to these corps, giving the rest shouldn't be a problem? Perhaps until proven otherwise?
   
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January 30, 2020, 04:40:44 AM

Daily update Corona virus outbreak:



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