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Question: October Closing Price:
<$59,000 - 10 (18.5%)
$59,000-$60,000 - 1 (1.9%)
$60,001-$61,000 - 1 (1.9%)
$61,001-$62,000 - 2 (3.7%)
$62,001-$63,000 - 7 (13%)
$63,001-$64,000 - 6 (11.1%)
$64,001-$65,000 - 4 (7.4%)
$65,001-$66,000 - 3 (5.6%)
$66,001-$67,000 - 2 (3.7%)
$67,001-$68,000 - 1 (1.9%)
>$68,000 - 17 (31.5%)
Total Voters: 54

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25468116 times)
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Paashaas
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January 14, 2020, 04:49:40 AM

Pump it!
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soxxx
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January 14, 2020, 04:50:05 AM

now

now it is our time
Bitcoin is inevitable.
jupiter9
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January 14, 2020, 04:51:14 AM

18th January pivot. We should be looking at btc on this day. On this date possible reversal until the next pivot.
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January 14, 2020, 04:52:55 AM



Not trying to shill altcoins but LTC has clearly broken out of its downward channel, and ETH is doing the same. Sentiment is clearly changing...

If shitcoin sentiment is changing why hasn't wankcoin broken out of its downward channel yet?

https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/wankcoin

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January 14, 2020, 05:32:44 AM

I don't have much hopes for the rest of 2019, but maybe we'll get out of that cursed range by January.



Observing January...

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January 14, 2020, 05:55:39 AM

now

now it is our time
Bitcoin is inevitable.

That's my ™ That would be 100.000 satoshis thank you  Angry
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January 14, 2020, 06:05:23 AM

It's a sign! Activity 90...Merit 9....Jupiter 9.posts 90...90=9+0=9....9=9....9=9....9999   9+9=18 ...18=1+8=9
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January 14, 2020, 06:18:39 AM

You have to reach 8750 to attack 9000, let's go !
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January 14, 2020, 06:49:53 AM


Gawd I luv these!



...

jsyk... I took the liberty to bump your post over to the Cryptsy thread . Hope you don't mind.




Thanks, I didn't want to catch up on that thread just to see if it had been posted there yet.



Welp was hoping to observe 9k but 8.5 seems to be a long battle and gotta observe some ZZZzzzzzz


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January 14, 2020, 06:54:26 AM
Last edit: January 14, 2020, 07:21:48 AM by JayJuanGee

I already said I am not expecting (hoping, yes) any more 5x-10x in a single year anymore.

I believe that I understand what you are saying, bitserve, but you better tone down the bullishness a bit.   Shocked

What I am suggesting is that two years in a row of 10x would still be a 100x, and even the most bullish of bitcoin prognosticators are not projecting anything like that... gosh that could put us in the $300k to $600k price range in two years (depending on foundational BTC price bouncing off point).


In fact I would prefer if we reach the stage in which Bitcoin stops crazily overshooting and overdumping afterwards for a more "sane and healthy" price growth instead.

Yes.. I recognize your rhetorical point.... In other words, you don't really expect a disappearance of bitcoin price overshooting.  I know that you are just making such world view assertions in order to fantasize a little.    Wink

I didn't say anything about 10x two years in a row... and that's not how it works. Do a 10x one year and next one will just implode, as always.

I am referring that I don't expect 5x-10x in a single year.... Which is exactly what I wrote Tongue

I will concede that I may have inadvertently created a strawman argument in order to attempt to construct the most bullish argument out of your words, and in the end, I became too excited and ended up exaggerating your words.

So, if you are saying no more 5x to 10x runs in any single year, then the most we could expect would be a series of 4.99x annual runs.

Let's say 4.99x in each of the next 3 years?  I could live with that, and let's start with the beginning of 2020... yeah, the starting point is a bit random, but it seems to be as good as any.  No?

Scenario 1:
January 2020 = $7,175

January 2021 = $7,175 (x 4.99) = $35,157.50

January 2022 = $35,157.50 (x 4.99) = $175,436

January 2023 = $175,436 (x 4.99) = $875,425.25

January 2024 = $875,425.25 (90% correction) = $87,542.50

I am not trying to concede that your proclamation of putting a limit on how much we could go up in any single year has any kind of profound meaning, but I am still saying that even with your ball park estimations of future limitations, we don't need 5x to 10x per year or more in order to prosper quite greatly in bitcoin.

I would be even willing to concede that the amount of magnification could go down each year, in a bull run, and we would still be doing quite well.  Let's try 4.99x then 3.5x and then 2x... then retrace thereafter.

Scenario 2:
January 2021 = $7,175 (x 4.99) = $35,157.50 (same as scenario 1)

January 2022 = $35,157.50 (x 3.5) = $123,051.25

January 2023 = $123,051.25 (x 2) = $246,102.50

January 2024 = $246,102.50 (90% correction) = $24,610.25


But hey bitserve, we know that bitcoin does not even work in a slow and steady kind of manner like that, and we should not be expecting it to work in a slow and steady manner.  

More likely would be that Bitcoin would go through an outrageous upward explosion and then downward collapse beyond expectations... so yeah, it might be a bit much to expect any BTC bull market to last longer than 2 years... so maybe we had nearly 1x in 2019 already, so we can only expect one more year? or two more years from here at the best?  Maybe smaller corrections, too (such as 75%?), which would put us at these kinds of scenarios (that build off of scenarios 1 and 2 above).

Scenario 1a:
January 2021 = $7,175 (x 4.99) = $35,157.50 (same as scenario 1 and 2)

January 2022 = $35,157.50 (x 4.99) = $175,436 (same as scenario 1)

January 2023 = $175,436 (75% correction) = $43,859

Scenario 2a:
January 2021 = $7,175 (x 4.99) = $35,157.50  (same as scenario 1, 1a and 2)

January 2022 = $35,157.50 (x 3.5) = $123,051.25 (same as scenario 2)
 
January 2023 = $123,051.25 (75% correction) = $30,762.81


Or an even more bearish scenario would cause the bull run to be smaller and the correction to come sooner, but likely to be smaller, too.

Scenario 1b/2b:
January 2021 = $7,175 (x 4.99) = $35,157.50 (same as scenario 1, 1a, 2 and 2a)

January 2022 = $35,157.50 (70% correction) = $10,547.25

2x? 3x? Maybe even 4x? Yeah, why not, in a very lucky year... much more than that and there you have another bubble pop and subsequent dump.


O.k.... even with your concessions that bitcoin could go beyond 5x in one year, we are ultimately asserting similar things, even while you are striving to be even more conservative than me regarding NOT getting your hopes up too much.  I can appreciate that perspective, for sure.

But... maybe that's exactly what will happen. Once more. But even if it does, there must be a point in which it doesn't do it anymore. And sooner or later it will come.


Of course, it seems logical that the explosive bursts in the upwards direction are going to become less able to be sustained, but does not mean that they are NOT going to happen for a while.  Yeah, maybe we are not going to experience another 78x in two years.  So what?  We don't need 78x in two years in order to do quite well in bitcoin.  We also don't need lame ass limitations of less than 5x in order to have meaningful and reasonable price growth (and discovery) in a still immature market that is still getting figured out by more and more people, institutions and governments.

I already said I am not expecting (hoping, yes) any more 5x-10x in a single year anymore. In fact I would prefer if we reach the stage in which Bitcoin stops crazily overshooting and overdumping afterwards for a more "sane and healthy" price growth instead.

That'll only happen once BTC's speculative nature has generally been priced in. In other words, in the "late adopter" phase. After mainstream adoption, after dinosaur institutions are balls deep into crypto, etc.

Price and adoption are directly linked, so as long as most people/institutions haven't adopted it yet, it will continue being extremely speculative.

Exponential adoption necessitates exponential gains. The next bubble will melt your face off. Wink

Even if I don't really expect it, I will really welcome it if it does Wink

Even if there are no "face melting" levels, we have no real reason to believe that something close to "face melting" does NOT have decently good odds of happening.  And, fuck alt coins.  They might seem to have more pumpening potential, but that pumpening is not sustainable.  So, we should be considering any "face melting" potentiality with consideration of downside risk too...  

In other words, even if one man's face melting does not reach that level for another, we should still be able to continue to appreciate bitcoin's asymmetric bet while considering the downside risk, too... and so what, if performance goes down, a bit.. those expectations of GREATER pumpenings can really distract folks from keeping their eyes on the prize.. in this case, king daddy... not suggesting that you, bitserve, are playing into any of those nonsense arguments that come from various shitcoins that appeal to their lower market cap allowing for greater pumpening potential, even while they are crap.. but this is a public thread, so remains worthwhile to refer to those nonsense talking points when folks are lamenting about the seeming lack of upside pumpening potential in bitcoin.
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January 14, 2020, 06:59:11 AM
Last edit: January 14, 2020, 08:12:02 AM by dragonvslinux
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seems to be hesitating a bit right at the highest possible interpretation of the channel top...
The RSI on the daily is at 65, I think we have enough juice left in the tank to break this. Also the break of the pennant has a target of $8700. I think its going to happen.


Good call and agree, looks like we have broken out of the bearish channel now, at least from my best fit line, RSI still as room to go overbought* >70. If you use the wicks and not the candle bodies, than arguably we "could" still be in the channel, or modify the new one, but this is becoming less and less likely every $100 upwards that passes.



A close above $8,500 (0.5 fib retracement from $3.1-$14K move) would open the floodgates for $9.1K where the 200 Day MA resistance is lined up.
Looks like we might need to consolidate for a few days to a week, turning old resistance into support. Either that, or moonshot to $9K+  Tongue

I'm still eyeing up a short for tomorrow if price gets rejected by the 0.5 fib & 100/200 Day MAs on CME futures chart though  Cheesy



I've changed my chart and instead extrapolated 100&200 MA bear-cross breakdown from the BTCUSD chart, giving a higher target of $6200 level.
With the stop loss at $9100 (BTCUSD 200 Day MA), this would be now be a 1:3 risk-reward (rather than a 1:2).

*Don't listen to anyone telling you the RSI is "close to overbought" as being a bearish sign. Between 60-70, the RSI is BULLISH and nothing else.
Disclosure: Long-term bull hodler, short-term bear trader.
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January 14, 2020, 07:43:09 AM

Well, this is what is was waiting for.
Turned bullish a couple of days ago, shortly after i placed my bearish bet in the Dude's game.
You win some, you lose some  Grin

We had some relatively fast pumps in the last months, followed by corrections short time later, that led to an even lower price (considered "manipulation" by some), while the rise of the last two weeks followed a nice bottoming, and also it's less of a steepness compared to the more massive pumps of Q3/Q4 2019.
Now i'dlike to see continuation until the end of January and a slight increase of overall volume would be great, too.

What if we no more decline before or around halving, if the price rise is mainly "trading the halving"? Correction (or mini bear market) in Q3/Q4 2020?
Maybe also pre-heating of post-halving FOMO, when the corn may explode and McAfee finally saving his dingdong?

Obsering $8.540 atm
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January 14, 2020, 07:45:07 AM

Peter Schiff finally says something relevant.
Quote
The actual national debt grew by over $1.2 trillion in 2019. That's just over $100 billion per month. The rise in 2020 will be even greater. If we really had a good economy, the deficits would be getting smaller, not larger.
https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1216876516375699456

Wow, insane numbers! Thats like 3.33 billion per day to prop up markets while very few understand or care.  This ends poorly.
Run for the exit while its still possible. BTC
makrospex
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nothing to see here


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January 14, 2020, 07:59:00 AM

Peter Schiff finally says something relevant.
Quote
The actual national debt grew by over $1.2 trillion in 2019. That's just over $100 billion per month. The rise in 2020 will be even greater. If we really had a good economy, the deficits would be getting smaller, not larger.
https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1216876516375699456

Wow, insane numbers! Thats like 3.33 billion per day to prop up markets while very few understand or care.  This ends poorly.
Run for the exit while its still possible. BTC


There's even more bad news on the climate change as well.
Oceans seem to heat up much faster than expected. Tax payers will be milked, and the industry would have to compensate loss on the commercial and transport sectors (with the help of our wisdom-eating leaders, inflating the dollar even more).
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00376-020-9283-7
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January 14, 2020, 08:38:28 AM

Wow, insane numbers! Thats like 3.33 billion per day to prop up markets while very few understand or care.  This ends poorly.
Run for the exit while its still possible. BTC

Considering that NASA budget is about $20 billion per year...  going into debt at $100 billion per month rate is bananas.

Not sustainable, in the long run.
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January 14, 2020, 09:14:29 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Wow, insane numbers! Thats like 3.33 billion per day to prop up markets while very few understand or care.  This ends poorly.
Run for the exit while its still possible. BTC
Not sustainable, in the long run.

Not sustainable at all. It's like a drug for them; they use it once and just can't stop after that
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January 14, 2020, 09:31:20 AM

"Bitcoin Price Rallies 3.7% to Hit 2-Month High"
Quote
The price of bitcoin (BTC) has risen once again after a successful launch of CME’s bitcoin options surpassed rival Bakkt on its BTC futures contracts in the first day of trade volume.
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-rallies-3-7-to-hit-2-month-high
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January 14, 2020, 09:40:13 AM

CME did more BTC Options volume on Day 1 than Bakkt did today.
RIP Bakkt
Hardly knew you

Tiny bit early to judge, nonetheless gutting for Rekkt Bakkt
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January 14, 2020, 09:42:04 AM
Merited by jojo69 (1)

Wow, insane numbers! Thats like 3.33 billion per day to prop up markets while very few understand or care.  This ends poorly.
Run for the exit while its still possible. BTC
Not sustainable, in the long run.

Not sustainable at all. It's like a drug for them; they use it once and just can't stop after that

They have no choice,really.
infinite growth is a myth. A myth too many still believe in.
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January 14, 2020, 09:56:52 AM

This is fine.

But still we need to surpass $8.7K.

A page before you where Ok for 8.5K  Kiss
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