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Question: Did we reach the bottom already?
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25879705 times)
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eddie13
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February 10, 2020, 02:59:55 AM
Merited by Last of the V8s (1)

I respect your theory of dollar cost averaging and "investing" over time and all that stuff and would say that is quite a safe strategy, but your style/theory doesn't apply to everyone..


Trading is also NOT a way to accumulate BTC or wealth.
trading should not be a means to accumulate BTC
Trading is also NOT a way to accumulate BTC or wealth.
trading should not be a means to accumulate BTC
you should not be planning on building your BTC wealth based on trading

This is a good thing to tell newbs but I don't consider it true for me at all..
I have only ever bought $100 worth of BTC in my life!!! In 12/2017 at the same time I sold about .8 BTC for $$.. Thinking about buying some back..
I have NOT "bought in" to BTC/Crypto EVER.. Ever ever..

In 2014 I got 0.01BTC for FREE from a friend sent to my Cryptsy account.. That's all.. Just 0.01BTC worth around $5..
Between then and the time Cryptsy crashed I traded that 0.01 BTC into over 2 BTC.. Trading ONLY.. Thousands of trades bro.. I wish that never would have ended..
I sold a decent chunk of that for car parts like an idiot @ <$500/BTC.. So stupid..

Traded Polo mainly for a while after that.. Handle there was "SatSnatcher".. Scalping satoshis.. Always scalping satoshis..
Went into arbing altcoin exchanges for a while.. Made meager profits..
Then I made some nice profits TRADING XCP assets, lol..
Think I did about 400% gain on what I put into Huobi...

Dude I have probably LOST on 2,000+ trades easy across many many exchanges, but won more that I lost with a good risk/reward ratio..

99% of ALL crypto I have ever owned has ALL been made trading exchanges.. ALL OF IT!! I've never bought anything..

I got into crypto TO TRADE.. I didn't know shit about crypto, didn't know shit about trading either, but I wanted to try trading, and I fell in love with Bitcoin..

You don't have to believe me but I'm telling you that that is the god's honest truth..

Check the date of this post I made..
I started with .01 BTC and made over 14,000% profit my first season (winter) trading.. Thousands of trades..
One of my first few posts on Bitcointalk..
And when I said that I meant that I increased my BTC stash by 14,000%, not $$ or anything else..
I have always only traded to increase my BTC stash no matter what, no mater what that meant in $..

 
You can say all you want that "Trading is NOT a way to accumulate BTC" but that just is not correct 100% of the time..
Trading has been MY way of accumulating BTC and I am proof otherwise..

I have never made much of shit lending here or with signatures or anything.. Anything I have made on Bitcointalk is very insignificant.. I haven't been paid for a signature here in YEARS..

"Investing" $20 a week into BTC seems silly to me WHEN I SHOULD BE TRADING..

I am not very risk-adverse..
I have been poor, I have been homeless in a shelter, I have been to jail, I have lost everything, I've been there..
I look back on it now as a fun and adventurous time of my life.. It taught me that I can do almost anything.. I can bicycle through a city in a blizzard.. I can hike miles.. I'm confident that I could be dropped off in any city in America with absolutely nothing and figure out how to make it work..
I can hardly believe what all I can do if I just decide to do it.. I can come back from anything..

I have also worked some of the most demanding jobs imaginable.. I can go work 100 hours a week across the country if I want to, on remote well locations, and bank.. I've worked in the Detroit ghetto where few dare to go, and you eat lunch at bulletproof Taco Bells that have obviously been shot up a time or 2, shots all still in the glass.. I'm not scared to do it again if I need to, but I don't like to spend my life that way..
Just another excellent adventure, but it gets unpleasant after a while..



That is a good thing that you are able to live without a lot of expenses, and likely means that it should be easier to reach your goal.
I am a very self-reliant person.. What most people spend money on I do myself..
I can work on/fix almost F'n anything.. I'm a bit of a collector of tools..
I also don't waste my money buying trash..
I only like to buy things that last forever, are useful, and hold value, as much as possible.. I like classic/vintage stuff over modern junk anyway so it works well..


ideology should not be your central motivator
Some things are more important than money..

As far as Debt..
I have plenty of assets other than Bitcoin that could easy be sold to pay off all of my debt..
I could sell less than half my cars alone and be debt free.. I don't owe a cent on my property and it is worth many times what my "debts" are, or cars..
I could go work like a slave for a couple months and pay it..
No big deal..
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February 10, 2020, 03:00:54 AM

I don't get why people still follow someone like masterluc who is not willing to post his analysis here for constructive criticism. The shine has worn off that particular penny IMO. That being said I expect any correction to stop at the weekly 20 MA. Let's see who is correct. Do I get a hat if I win?
I for one often report about masterluc here. He was the first analyst to impress me with his long term prediction. I agree he's lost his edge, but I also think there's little damage to hear his more recent short term calls - even if they're off more often than not.

And I think you could get a hat even without winning, if you want it.
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February 10, 2020, 03:14:38 AM

It is really difficult to say, for sure, or even to lecture someone else for taking a zero position in regards to bitcoin.

It is almost as if you have no spare income whatsoever.. or no view of the future or no ability to save.

So, maybe if you don't have any savings and only debt, then it would be better to get your debt paid off first and to establish yourself an ability to save... and if you have absolutely not enough money to put away that you can afford to not think about, then maybe you cannot be in bitcoin.. even if that is a mere $20 per month... or some low level like that.

There are usually ways that even really poor people are able to stack some investments away, and maybe the only exception would be if a person believes that he is not going to live more than a few years, so really in a liquidation phase of his life and liquidating most if not all assets.


You are absolutely right. My financial acumen is very low. In fact it is an absolute train wreck.  Cheesy However, the only way that I can reasonable participate in the BTC economy is to earn it. I'll have to participate in a signature campaign, probably. I could resort to using my desktop to mine shitcoins. But that usually resorts in losses or very small returns, especially since my GPU is only a 1070.

I remember you had similar circumstances in 2015-ish.... so it's not like there is anything that I can say that is likely to influence you in any kind of way... I mean, you have been around the forum, and fairly active in the forum, except for the last couple of months or so...

Of course, we are writing in a public thread, so we are not engaged in some kind of private and personal conversation, and surely readers of this thread are not necessarily going to understand your particulars - not that I really claim to know them either.

Actually, I give very similar suggestions to everyone who seems interested in bitcoin and that is just to establish some kind of stake in bitcoin and to continue to just do what you can to get a stake, but certainly any person has to both want to get into bitcoin and to have his/her finances in sufficient order.. and surely having finances in order is one of the more important parts. 

The other relatively BIG category of person that I run into that talks about bitcoin that seems to justify NOT getting into bitcoin is that the person who is largely just liquidating assets and not really seeming to be interested in investing for the future... which seems to suggest that s/he already has sufficient cashflow from whatever investments that s/he had made over the year and just is living off of the income from that and drawing down whatever principle remains in those investments.
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February 10, 2020, 03:15:53 AM

Then..................................

"There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!"

"My feelings, as usual, we will slaughter them all."

"Our initial assessment is that they will all die."

"No I am not scared and neither should you be!"

"We will welcome them with bullets and shoes."

"They're not even [within] 100 miles [of Baghdad]. They are not in any place. They hold no place in Iraq.

"They fled. The American louts fled. Indeed, concerning the fighting waged by the heroes of the Arab Socialist Baath Party yesterday, one amazing thing really is the cowardice of the American soldiers. we had not anticipated this."

"God will roast their stomachs in hell at the hands of Iraqis."

"They tried to bring a small number of tanks and personnel carriers in through al-Durah but they were surrounded and most of their infidels had their throats cut."

"I can say, and I am responsible for what I am saying, that they have started to commit suicide under the walls of Baghdad. We will encourage them to commit more suicides quickly."


Now.........................

via Imgflip Meme Generator
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February 10, 2020, 03:30:02 AM
Last edit: February 10, 2020, 03:58:39 AM by Gyrsur

  Bitstamp AYH    10,199.85 USD  


EDIT: adjusted to the correct Bitstamp AYH (source: Bitstamp)
{"high": "10199.85000000", "last": "10093.40", "timestamp": "1581306819", "bid": "10084.94", "vwap": "10106.19", "volume": "4525.11553999", "low": "9999.21000000", "ask": "10093.38", "open": 10173.51}
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February 10, 2020, 03:31:37 AM

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12307276

... airborne confirmed in MSM, because they never run fake news  Roll Eyes
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February 10, 2020, 03:32:40 AM
Merited by Cryptotourist (1)

The oracle has spoken btw, masterluc says $6k is incoming.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ME0DngUr-Short-term-analysis-ending-diagonal/

Tldr; If it goes to $11k, this prediction becomes invalid. If not, $6k.
*If this happens I am going all-in.

Masterluc can go take a flying fuck...

Sure $6k is possible..

just like $1.5k was possible in late 2018/early 2019.... but it did not happen.
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February 10, 2020, 03:33:13 AM

adjusted levels because of the new AYH.

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February 10, 2020, 03:59:12 AM

Pro tip for free: at some point in a bull run BTC price will touch the weekly 20 MA. Use that as a low risk entry. Takes patience, just put in your buy order and adjust.
Thank you  Grin So this would be around ~ $9K right ?

More like $8.2-8.4k right now but it will probably get closer to 9k later on if it keeps going up without a correction.



*Btw, it never touched 20 WMA when it started going up from $3.8k to $14k so it might not be as valid as BitcoinNewsMagazine thinks. LFC's idea is probably a better one. Buy while you still can.

Sure it did early in the last bull run. If you want to be assured of getting filled just adjust your buy price up a few percent above the weekly 20 MA. Later in a bull run you need to use oversold indicators.



Why are our lines different than each other though? Did you mean 20 WMA or 200 WMA or something else?, kinda confused. Sorry, small screen, now i see

The oracle has spoken btw, masterluc says $6k is incoming.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/ME0DngUr-Short-term-analysis-ending-diagonal/

Tldr; If it goes to $11k, this prediction becomes invalid. If not, $6k.
*If this happens I am going all-in.

Aids-Flu guarantees we never reach Bargain prices such as 6k again. 11k in less than a week imo.
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February 10, 2020, 04:05:48 AM

Don't get mad at Luc.

He doesn't say it is going go to $6k without any conditions.

He says it will happen if it stays under $11k which is a pretty valid guess imo. I'll buy more tomorrow to help to invalidate this TA. If you want the same thing, you should too.

This thing won't go to $100k by itself, somebody has to buy it from $10k and $20k... $60k... and all the way up to $100k. Believe it or not, Some will even buy it at $100k.

This time BTC is going to $350-$450k so LOTS of peeps are going to jump in at $100k and further up.  Cool

Bruh, I think 350-450k might be a bit ambitious for this cycle. That kind of price will come in 2025 or something a year after the 2024 halving.

Just my opinion but obviously would love you to be right.

Nice hypothetical LFC.

What you going to do, if serveria ends up being correct, and you sold most of your coins below $150k?

Hey, I know that I am giving you some shit because you said that you are ONLY selling half, but is that how it is going to go down, and are you going to be content with yourself if BTC prices 2-4x beyond your most bullish of expectations? 

Are you financially and psychologically prepared for such a possibility, I mean if you sell 1/2 of your BTC at somewhere in the $100k (even sub $100k territory?)? 

Of course, we should be prepared for the outrageous scenarios, including that the top might only get to $65k, and even I am quite skeptical of anything beyond $200k for this cycle, but I surely will have enough bitcoin if such a thing were to happen. 

I am planning to skim off BTC all the way up whether it stops at $15k, or $35k, or $65k or $600k or whatever, and even I have some trouble appreciating what I am going to do with all of the cash that is going to be generated from my skimming off sales, so I don't feel any need to sell higher quantities (percentages of my portfolio) of BTC in order to have more than enough cash from any possible bullrun that might happen.
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February 10, 2020, 04:10:21 AM

Be ready for hordes of nocoiners flooding the gates of Bitcointalk.org when halving and ATH come.

What's the best defence against a nocoiner: burning oil, flaming arrows, a good ol' pitchfork?

(I know some nancy-boy will respond with knowledge and fine argument!)

Dragonstone.
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February 10, 2020, 04:15:47 AM

Don't get mad at Luc.

He doesn't say it is going go to $6k without any conditions.

He says it will happen if it stays under $11k which is a pretty valid guess imo. I'll buy more tomorrow to help to invalidate this TA. If you want the same thing, you should too.

This thing won't go to $100k by itself, somebody has to buy it from $10k and $20k... $60k... and all the way up to $100k. Believe it or not, Some will even buy it at $100k.

This time BTC is going to $350-$450k so LOTS of peeps are going to jump in at $100k and further up.  Cool

Bruh, I think 350-450k might be a bit ambitious for this cycle. That kind of price will come in 2025 or something a year after the 2024 halving.

Just my opinion but obviously would love you to be right.

That is not a prediction actually, that's pure maths (if the growth rate stays the same).  Grin

John?  Is that you?

Didn't McAfee say the same stupid thing? 

In late 2017, McAfee said that it is pure math that bitcoin is going to 1/2 $million by end of 2020 - then a few weeks later, he upped his prediction price to $1million, and then in the end of 2019, while maths did not seem to be going his way, he retracted his whole statement and suggested that he was engaging in hyperbole that no one should have taken seriously.
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February 10, 2020, 04:48:57 AM
Merited by Cryptotourist (1)

I got my $3k number by extrapolating....
....
333,333.333333

hodl for 300k

I predicted a low of $3k about a year and a half ago and the next high around $300k..

The $3k low prediction held up pretty well and I'm no less confident in the 300k prediction since then, with about the same seriousness that I was saying "BTC to $10k" in 2014-2015..

I think $100k would be quite a conservative prediction for the peak after this next halving..

Many of the extrapolation results of 2017's bubble top were between about $40k and$50k iirc.?
Just for comparison, if you know or remember better, please let me know.


Huh?

The vast majority of peeps were predicting between about $3k and $7k for 2017.  Of course, there were guys like adam predicting $32k, and there were some $10k folks, but these super bullish predictions were not really the norm.  There were a lot of bearish predictions too.. like we already reached the top... blah blah blah..

Yeah, in retrospect, 2017 might seem all clear, but largely the BTC price move in 2017 went about 3x to 5x beyond expectations....

Now, after reaching $19,666, did people expect 2-3 years to get back to $19,666... I don't think so... Many folks were considering resuming another top, like what happened in 2013.. two tops... but yeah, in retrospect, we see that double top performance did not happen.
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February 10, 2020, 04:52:30 AM
Last edit: February 10, 2020, 05:23:50 AM by Paashaas
Merited by Lambie Slayer (1)

You need more than 800 corpses that's for sure..

edit: these numbers comes close to the Tencent leak.





https://twitter.com/inteldotwav/status/1226267582740811777

Anything burning fuel produces SO2, including my truck.  

In a quarantined city where no one is working...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- The number of coronavirus cases worldwide has reached 40,000, death toll surpasses 900.

- 10 new cases in Hong Kong, 3 new cases in Singapore; 6 patients in critical condition.

- Spain reports country's 2nd case of coronavirus on Mallorca.

- First wave of Chinese businesses going bankrupt.

- KFC worker is diagnosed with coronavirus as company shuts thousands of restaurants in China.

- WHO Director-General warns "we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg".

- Exiled Chinese billionaire says true death toll closer to 50k, 1.5 million infected.

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February 10, 2020, 05:07:01 AM

Amazon censors book titled “A History of Central Banking and the Enslavement of Mankind”:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/technology/amazon-bookstore-nazis.html
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February 10, 2020, 05:23:44 AM
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Still early days...
https://cointelegraph.com/news/vaneck-report-illustrates-why-institutions-should-hold-bitcoin
Quote
An in-depth comparison of the features of the United States dollar, gold and Bitcoin contained in the report also suggests that Bitcoin has more of the features that are desirable from an asset that serves as money than gold itself.

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February 10, 2020, 05:26:35 AM

Dragonstone.

The best defence is a good offence defence.
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February 10, 2020, 05:39:04 AM
Merited by marcus_of_augustus (5), vapourminer (1)

I think you guys might be overestimating the pump value on BTC that the China Virus has..

If I was a Chinese guy and had a lot of extra money, sure, putting it into Bitcoin would probably be a good idea rather than holding it in CNY or Chinese stocks..

If I was a Chinese guy with some Bitcoin but not a lot of extra money, I'd be selling the crap out of Bitcoin to buy prepping supplies like food and water to hold up for months without needing to go out..


If this was happening where I live.. I would probably be trading some/much of my Bitcoin for a bunch of 5.56Coin, .308Coin, ParabellumCoin, food, and other supplies, if I needed to..

If this was threatening me, I wouldn't be too concerned about making money on Bitcoin, unless I had so much money I didn't need it all for supplies..

Me personally, I am pretty well prepped already..
I'm a bit of a collector of useful things, so I already have some decent preps like power generation equipment in many forms, offgrid heat, masks/respirators, radios, hunting/fishing supplies, Likely EMP proof vehicles, etc.. etc..  
Actually I think I even have everything lying around to build a Steam Powered Electricity Generator, to turn anything from wood to Used Tires into electricity, if I wanted to..

If it's time to buy a load of food and gasoline, top up, in this current market I wouldn't need to dip into my Bitcoins to buy these things, nor would it be the most convenient way..


Just saying.. I'm not sure that a Pandemic would be 100% good for Bitcoin..
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February 10, 2020, 05:59:51 AM
Merited by bones261 (4), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), eddie13 (1), Cryptotourist (1)

^^^ I agree with much of what you say, it's not clear that bitcoin or gold really benefit in a shtf situation, it depends on the severity. A medium-level hit that upsets the economic apple cart sees safe haven assets do well, in a high severity event that has you scrounging for scraps against your neighbour 'asset' and 'values' become nebulous concepts.

However, in the early stages of exogenous shocks like this coronavirus there is a lot of uncertainty so safe haven assets tend to do well in the short-medium term until things become clearer. Also take note here that there is a subtle difference between a 'flight to safety' and 'flight capital' although they may have overlap.

If you are genuinely fleeing from a effed-up situation, e.g. war, plague, riots, revolution, capital controls, etc and you want to liquidate your assets and take your liquidity with you, or send it on ahead, that is flight capital, bitcoin excels at this function btw, gold is good but heavy and modern border controls (KYC/AML) make it much less useful.

A widespread shift of capital into safe haven assets due to some event or crises in the markets can be called a flight to safety and a range of assets can be useful in those situations.

Bitcoin, imho, is the premiere asset for flight capital today and can also serve somewhat as a safe haven asset, but that is much less proven as it still carries too much risk and volatility to be considered a flight to safety.
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February 10, 2020, 06:03:23 AM

Big dump..
WTF just happened?
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