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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25877002 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
marcus_of_augustus
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February 10, 2020, 12:57:26 AM
Merited by Lambie Slayer (1)

https://twitter.com/IsChinar/status/1225642223506579457

... wow, the US health workers on the evacuation flight are wearing fully recirculating (independent oxygen) biohazard suits. Definitely not Just the Flu Bruh.

edit: and backs up the airborne claim.
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February 10, 2020, 01:04:42 AM

They are being supercautious because they don’t know what they are dealing with.

Doesn’t prove or disprove anything.  

Am watching the cases in Western jurisdictions closely.  So far no explosions of infection from the French or German cases.  

Given the amount of air travel from Hong Kong and Singapore, cases currently are surprisingly low.
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February 10, 2020, 01:06:58 AM

https://gnews.org/107513/

Unusual activities before the epidemic
The U.S. government will investigate the stock market manipulations took place before the Wuhan epidemic including (but not limited to):

“Exists” from Stock Exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong.
short-selling
People with knowledge of the viral attack sold a large number of stocks to American, European and Saudis investors. Many people who sold their stocks include Jiang Zhicheng (the grandson of Jiang Zeming, the former president of China), Meng Haijin (the daughter of Meng Jianzhu), and Gao Yanyan, etc.
Li Ka-shing, a pro-CCP tycoon in Hong Kong, unloaded a significant portion of his stock holding after Nov 12, a move he did not take during the Hong Kong pro-democracy protests.
Many Chinese business tycoons have been shorting stocks and selling stock holdings to foreigners while keeping their mouths shut since Nov 12, 2019.


I don't know about the veracity of Miles Guo's theories but we do know that Li Ka-Shing has been heavily involved in bitcoin in the past. If he was exiting Chinese stocks as Miles says then it is possible he was entering bitcoin/gold flight capital assets. There was a good pump in bitcoin mid-late Oct. .... hmmm was that another Li Ka-shing and co. pump?.

Cant think of a better way for The Beijing Boyz to stash their wealth than Bitcoin. Smiley
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February 10, 2020, 01:09:23 AM

The SEC doesn’t give a fuck about what happens on the Chinese stock markets. It’s laughable that they would investigate.  

And the Trump administration is trying to pump Xi up, not knock him down. That commentator is a joke. 
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February 10, 2020, 01:11:09 AM

They are being supercautious because they don’t know what they are dealing with.

Doesn’t prove or disprove anything.  

Am watching the cases in Western jurisdictions closely.  So far no explosions of infection from the French or German cases.  

Given the amount of air travel from Hong Kong and Singapore, cases currently are surprisingly low.

That's what I'm watching too. I can only hope that every other countries systems can handle this better than the Chinese and being that they are more open than the Chinese, not punishing doctors etc we might have a chance. And seem to be taking things more seriously as well.

However, take Singapore as an example. They have 40 cases currently. Apparently Hubei/Wuhan had the same on the 17th of January then in the next 2 weeks things exploded. We definitely still need to wait and see before judging how things go outside of China.
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February 10, 2020, 01:11:15 AM

The SEC doesn’t give a fuck about what happens on the Chinese stock markets. It’s laughable that they would investigate. 

yeah, a lot of stuff on that site seemed off
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February 10, 2020, 01:13:40 AM

The statistics coming out of Hong Kong definitely looks suspicious. The Singaporean case studies are very detailed. They seem to be taking contact tracing quite seriously. So far, they seem to be truthful but hard to tell.
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February 10, 2020, 01:14:23 AM

marcus_of_augustus
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February 10, 2020, 01:14:33 AM

They are being supercautious because they don’t know what they are dealing with.

Doesn’t prove or disprove anything.  

Am watching the cases in Western jurisdictions closely.  So far no explosions of infection from the French or German cases.  

Given the amount of air travel from Hong Kong and Singapore, cases currently are surprisingly low.

I agree. Western cases are way lower than what you would expect from airborne transmissions, unless none of the Western cases contracted outside of China and we haven't had our true Western "Typhoid Mary" yet. Those cruise ships are like petri dishes so I don't know how much you can draw from that, but it's spreading like wildfire on there, whatta nightmare cruise.
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February 10, 2020, 01:15:33 AM
Merited by AlcoHoDL (1)

I got my $3k number by extrapolating....
....
333,333.333333

hodl for 300k

I predicted a low of $3k about a year and a half ago and the next high around $300k..

The $3k low prediction held up pretty well and I'm no less confident in the 300k prediction since then, with about the same seriousness that I was saying "BTC to $10k" in 2014-2015..

I think $100k would be quite a conservative prediction for the peak after this next halving..

Nice prediction, interesting to hear you think it'll go to $300K next cycle. With most people believing that prices will only go 5-10x from ATH ($10K0-200K) until topping out, given the similarities with the recent 2012 style correction, I think we could be leading up to a much larger bubble top than 2018. I don't just mean higher, I mean more parabolic and for longer than 2017. Think 2012 leading into 2013 with a harsh "fake top" correction around $100K. Fiat collapse style parabolic, all the signs are there to take Bitcoin to an incomparable value with fiat.

I'm not sure it will go to 300k but I don't doubt it..
I get the 300k number very simply by comparing the previous ATH of 20000 to the one before that which was 1200.. If it does the same thing again..
20,000/1200 = X/20,000 = 333,333.333333

It would go to 333k just by repeating the past.. But it does not necessarily have to exactly repeat the past.. Could be higher or lower..

I really like this Etoro commercial actually..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSnAUHTyksY

That commercial is about exactly the reason I HODL, but if you look at the entire price history of BTC, it has done that same thing over and over again many more times than even the commercial shows, further reinforcing the pattern..

My long term BTC HODL TA is very simple and my short term TA is extremely short term being more based on instinct and watching the books live than anything the charts have done..

The way I actually like to "trade" I don't use charts much at all, but rather watch the books.. But I prefer to trade smaller/medium sized markets that are not on too many exchanges so you can see the entire market by watching only 1 2 or 3 exchanges..

I haven't really "traded" BTC/Fiat all that much.. Maybe only around 500 trades mostly on Huobi and some on Gdax..
Man I loved Huobi so much with it's 0% trade fees.. So perfect for my trading style of just trying to scalp small changes..
Hated Gdax with it's high fees and insane market maker bots that I couldn't really compete with..
It was pretty easy trading BTC at that time too when okcoin, huobi, and btcc were obviously leading the market so you didn't have to watch the rest of the exchanges really..
It's also almost cheating to trade a bull market like that, lol..

I don't even know what exchanges I can trade anymore..


Observing BTC looking fine at 10158..
marcus_of_augustus
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February 10, 2020, 01:20:38 AM
Merited by d_eddie (1)

The SEC doesn’t give a fuck about what happens on the Chinese stock markets. It’s laughable that they would investigate. 

yeah, a lot of stuff on that site seemed off

... but super-entertaining and it's always good to hear all the fringe stuff ... it's how you get to become an early adopter Wink
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February 10, 2020, 01:24:56 AM
Merited by eddie13 (1)

Ordered a crane for the Ocean Builders factory from China.

They had previously pushed back the delivery date. At first we figured they were just making excuses. Today they said it will be delayed longer because all factories in their area are shut down due to the virus.
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February 10, 2020, 01:26:20 AM

They are being supercautious because they don’t know what they are dealing with.

Doesn’t prove or disprove anything.  

Am watching the cases in Western jurisdictions closely.  So far no explosions of infection from the French or German cases.  

Given the amount of air travel from Hong Kong and Singapore, cases currently are surprisingly low.

It does proves that while they dont know everything, what they do know is scaring them shitless while they tell everyone else to relax and buy moar stocks.  Smiley

Say you live next to a zoo, in the black of night you hear something that sounds like a tiger roaring and bushes rustling near you.

You don't know exactly what kind of animal it is or if its chasing you. You don't console yourself that since you arent completely sure whats going on that its no worse than the flu. You run like a motherfucker.
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February 10, 2020, 01:26:37 AM

The statistics coming out of Hong Kong definitely looks suspicious. The Singaporean case studies are very detailed. They seem to be taking contact tracing quite seriously. So far, they seem to be truthful but hard to tell.

Yep Hong Kong can't be trusted, their citizens will tell you that.

Singapore though, is the best we have. Close to Asia, rich, a government that is pretty honest and does look after it's people despite being authoritarian in nature, fantastic health system, plenty of travel from China before being stopped, and very urban. This is the one to watch I reckon.
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February 10, 2020, 01:28:06 AM

The SEC doesn’t give a fuck about what happens on the Chinese stock markets. It’s laughable that they would investigate.  

yeah, a lot of stuff on that site seemed off

... but super-entertaining and it's always good to hear all the fringe stuff ... it's how you get to become an early adopter Wink

Yep, we have made a lot of money wearing tin foil hats round these parts.  Cheesy

The SEC does care about the family members of these oligarchs who live here, go to school here, etc, and trade in our markets.
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February 10, 2020, 01:32:38 AM
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He had felt that he did not quite have enough in BTC to sell during the last price rise to $20k, but I think that he got more frustrated than you, LFC, in terms of his NOT really wanting to talk or think about the BTC price falling matter... because that would just bring him further from NOT having enough to just retire...  so largely just preferred to HODL through it all, as far as I understood to be what he was doing.

It takes a quite a bit of balls just to HODL through and to try not to think about the cyclical matters too much....

That is basically where I'm at..

I really have barely any BTC compared to most of you, which at the current price is not life changing either way, so I might as well just HODL..

I haven't made/accumulated much BTC since before the $20k peak, as my ways of accumulation are mostly eliminated by the modernization/regulation of exchanges shutting down/shutting me down, so it just is what it is..

If you have a long enough timeline, let's say 10 to 15 years, then you should be able to accumulate a decent amount of value in BTC.  When I first started in the workplace, I did not presume that I would be able to make any kind of fortune or anything like that in less than 20 years, and 30 years was a more realistic target to be able to say fuck you and to retire or whatever..   With BTC, it seems possible to be able to accomplish such status in a shorter period of time (I mean shorter than 30 years), but it does NOT mean that it would be realistic to conclude that you could reach such status in less than 10 years... especially if you have to build up your wealth yourself rather than already coming from wealth that is handed to you on a silver platter and with a silver spoon... (no recommendation towards actual silver, intended)


Even the dollar cost average website (chart) shows that you do not need a large investment, as long as you are consistently investing through time.... so for example investing $20 per week for the past 4 years is still going to get you 2.5 bitcoins by now....

https://dcabtc.com?sd=2016-02-09&sda=4_years&f=weekly&d=4_years&ac=2000&c=true



Though, my retirement goal ambitions are much lower than most, I am satisfied with a more modest way of life, being a countryboy and all..
I don't need a $1mm estate and $500 dinners.. I only need a couple hundred K to become financially secure..


That is a good thing that you are able to live without a lot of expenses, and likely means that it should be easier to reach your goal.


I think in my entire crypto career I have cashed out about 1.6 BTC for probably just under $10k total.. And I do regret it, but still have a bit more than that..
Most of what I have I have held from under $500..

Well, if you already a bit more than a couple BTC, then you have a strong base to build and to continue to preserve.  Some people are going to be struggling just to get 1 BTC.. so if you already achieved that, you just keep building upon it without doing anything stupid.. just build and accumulate BTC.. or stack sats.

I haven't ever really been in the position to "invest" into BTC, so all I have is what has been hard earned behind my keyboard, and I try to keep it..

You cannot buy $20 of BTC per week or something modest like that?  Of course, you don't need to have that much, but $20 seems kind of achievable for quite a few people... but you do what you are able to do, and if that is only $5 per week, then so be it.  It all adds up if you stick with it.


I have a bit more BTC $ at current value than I have debt though, so their may be hope..

Of course, sometimes debt can be used for a variety of purposes, so yeah, if your debt is costing you a lot, then you might need to get some of that in order in your life, but if your debt is making you money or getting put to solid investment purposes where you are earning more than it costs you to service the debt, then that kind of debt is NOT necessarily a bad thing to figure out how to play to your advantage... or just to work towards reducing it, if you know that such ongoing debt is costing your more than it is worth.


But, I am a BTC believer from a libertarian/anarchist point of view, so their is that keeping me HODLing too..

Even though ideology should not be your central motivator, it is o.k. to believe that you are investing in what you consider the "right" kinds of things.  There are quite a few of us who have some of those kinds of motives that can justify part of our investment motives, but it should not be the central driver.. the central driver regarding how we invest should be attempting to improve our own personal situation with the passage of time and attempting to engage in behaviors that we believe to maximize our returns given the totality of our individual considerations including our cash flow, other investments, views on bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance and our skills and time to research and to manage our portfolio.

I think I have 0.12BTC riding 1:1 on the Trump election, Trump wins, so that will be the biggest loss/gain for me in quite a long time..

Betting is a dumb-ass fuck way to invest or to consider investing or possible returns.  Yeah, you might get lucky, but you might not.  Once you have built a decent investment and you have accumulated, sure you can play around with betting, but betting should not be central to any accumulation strategy... and only employed after you have reached decently large reserves that you can "play around" with.

I really should get back into trading, but all the shit in trading I have been through, and narrowly escaped, is almost like PTSD to me, and I just can't Sad
I tried Binance for a bit and they just shut me down too Sad
Can't seem to find a signature deal..
Don't know wtf I'm going to do to satisfy my accumulation urge yet but I'm looking..

Trading is also NOT a way to accumulate BTC or wealth.  The best ways to accumulate  BTC/wealth is DCA and buying on dips.  Once you get to a stronger accumulation level and establish a decent position that is relativley strong, then you can fuck around with trading.. The trading should only come after you have established a strong BTC position and ONLY with a small amount of your BTC holdings, -----  i.e. trading should not be a means to accumulate BTC because then you are just employing or developing a gambling mindset, which sounds like you have already tried that and have not been successful with it, so why continue with such nonsense when it does not really work for you, as you already indicated?

I, personally, swing trade in order to attempt to insure my portfolio from downside BTC price moves, and sure that results in more BTC accumulation, but trading was not the way that I accumulated my BTC.  

I largely accumulated my BTC between 2013 and 2015 buy buying on dips and DCAing...  So I was decently well established before I sold any single BTC and I never sold a BTC that was not already in profits...   Sometimes also, during 2013 to 2016, I would kind of panic whenever I sold any BTC because I constantly wanted to make sure that I would be able to buy back any BTC that I sold during that time.

 And, if I had been younger when I got into BTC (or if I was just starting to invest), I would have likely been planning to DCA into BTC for 15 years or longer, but before 2013, I had already been DCAing into other kinds of traditional investments for nearly 30years, so I already had built a decent amount of capital to be able to move from my traditional investments into BTC... that took well over a year for me to establish my initial BTC stake based on a kind of transfer and reallocation of wealth from traditional investments into BTC and then to just continue to accumulate BTC for another year or so after I felt that I had made my transfer into BTC even though I had already felt that I had a decent initial stake within a bit more than the 1st year of transferring money from other investments into BTC.

Punchline is that unless you are some kind of professional trader or you are really methodic and dedicate a long to time very conservative and the establishment of fool proof strategies (and there are some out there if you really know how to figure it out), you should not be planning on building your BTC wealth based on trading... because, again, that is a gambling perspective, which is likely to result in tears of pain rather than tears of profit..  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy.
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February 10, 2020, 01:33:14 AM

Rick and I are heading to Cabo for a few days.
Expecting $10k BTC/USD by the time we return.

Just returned to a dreary, rainy Dallas. That BTC price tho !

Good thing you missed the Dallas Renegades game, it wasn't pretty. Smiley
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February 10, 2020, 01:42:02 AM



fucking hell


time to short
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February 10, 2020, 01:56:02 AM
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)

naah

10K Tuesday or Wednesday

Yep, around Feb 12th, if this channel holds up:

Jupiter9?  Is that you?

Nope. If i were him, i'd be like:
Beware! "2020/02/20"...important date, the prophet of blah had his first ejaculation on a 20th feb. too, the prove is, it's written in the stars of the electric universe.

Or similar...

Try harder Wink


EDIT: Good night at $9.794 #thisissomehint

Are you going to be an asshole in this inkarnation as well?

I try not to, really.
Being sarcastic doesn't make me an asshole.
It would make me an asshole if i intended to hurt someone, though, but that's never my intention.


Just to be clear.

Texting lacks communication of emotions, in contrast to speaking. That's one of the main causes for fuzz on the interweb.
One just can't be sure to "read" his communication partner's intentions. The error rate is around 80%.

That's just saying that you and you alone decides when you are an asshole.
You can say anything, write anything, and do anything.
As long as you claim that you did not intend to hurt anyone, it's ok. Other peoples feelings are irrelevant.


Now you're either projecting OR you are on the 80% side of communication.

Woke up to $10.061 today. Coffee tasted much better, somehow  Grin

I must admit that I do find it a bit entertaining to see you guys going back and forth on this topic, but really, OutOfMemory, you are being too nice to be engaging with the emotions of Arriemoller... but whatever, do what you want... there could be some entertainment value in the back and forth for some folks...    Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

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February 10, 2020, 02:35:10 AM


And Welcome Back bones261!

Just to let everyone know. I am doing great. Sorry to worry some people. I'm just for all intensive purposes a nocoiner now. I'll try to check in more often. We shall see.

Sometimes, in life, the priorities are what force us to make certain decisions, that's how it is, there is no more.

It is really difficult to say, for sure, or even to lecture someone else for taking a zero position in regards to bitcoin.

It is almost as if you have no spare income whatsoever.. or no view of the future or no ability to save.

So, maybe if you don't have any savings and only debt, then it would be better to get your debt paid off first and to establish yourself an ability to save... and if you have absolutely not enough money to put away that you can afford to not think about, then maybe you cannot be in bitcoin.. even if that is a mere $20 per month... or some low level like that.

There are usually ways that even really poor people are able to stack some investments away, and maybe the only exception would be if a person believes that he is not going to live more than a few years, so really in a liquidation phase of his life and liquidating most if not all assets.

You sound like a lucky man who can always save no matter what.

Having a family, childcare costs, travel to work costs, feeding them all is not as easy as you imply. You are frequently making choices what to sacrifice for the greater good.  It isn't the kids childhoods they need to be put first.

Of course there are going to be times in which cashflows are more pressed than other times, but if you project your cashflow ahead, then you can adjust for the UPs and the DOWNs in your cashflow along the way.  My starting out income was really small for many years, but I always still saved and invested, and i did so in very conservative ways throughout my life... of course, my income has increased too through the years and that is NO small part to the savings and investments all along that gives more options and more abilities to do more things and to consume more things.

Every person is going to employ a different method for projecting their cashflow.  When I was just leaving home and I was first on my own, I only needed to project 3 to 6 months in advance because my life was NOT very complicated and I could keep even less than a $300 cushion in my cashflow and still feel like that gave me enough flexibility, but as my economic obligations became more complicated and I employed a variety of different tools, including employment of debt/credit and got involved in businesses that had uncertain cashflows, I generally felt more comfortable projecting my cashflow quite a bit further in advance, such as 18-24 months in advance and projecting with a $1,500 or more cushion.

Of course, if I always tried to have a cash cushion in my cashflow, and the more uncertainties the more cushion, I would also have different kinds of expenses that would be projected and different kinds of income, and of course there are uncertainties with any of those that are going to vary with people, and sometimes I would have to draw from various kinds of pools of money (investments or savings) in order to make sure that I maintained whatever was my cashflow cushion, but as the years went by, my investment pools became larger and larger and more diverse, so it would become easier to figure out which pool to draw money and how to balance or how to prevent from even having to move money around.

I was always choosing which investment (pools) were the first ones on the list to draw from in the event of emergencies.  

When you project your cashflow ahead, you can see cashflow shortages coming way the fuck before they become an emergency, and maybe the first line of defense would be to change spending or to move the payment of certain bills or to spread things out or just NOT to invest as much for several months until the cashflow seemed to be back to a more normalized state, or sometimes money would need to be moved around with calculations based on which funds were the best ones to use based on fees or interest rates or opportunity costs towards adjusting for seeming emergencies that were seeming to come up... and of course, living within your means is one of the best ways to have a lot of different cash funds and options too.. including not buying new things all the time and not going on 4 vacations a year.  

There are a variety of ways to make sure that you have money to invest, that you have your cashflow projected in advance, that you make sure that you have a cushion that is appropriate to your circumstances.. including really poor people.... but if you are staying poor for a really long time without improvement to the funds that you have available and you are not making various kinds of investments and savings, then that might be a sign that you are NOT doing things right and you need to tweak your systems in order that you get your cashflow in order.

TLDR: Sure, there might be some luck involved with managing cashflow and being able to invest and save on mostly an ongoing basis, but there is also a lot of preparation and ongoing management of income and expenses and making sure that you are living well within your means in order that you have money left over for investing and you are NOT investing beyond your abilities to keep emergency funds and a sufficient cash cushion for your situation.
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