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Question: Did we reach the bottom already?
Yes - 60 (50%)
No, it's coming later this year - 44 (36.7%)
No, it's coming next year or after - 16 (13.3%)
Total Voters: 120

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25879689 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 5 users with 9 merit deleted.)
fillippone
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February 09, 2020, 09:49:52 PM

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

Reward-Drop ETA date: 12 May 2020 06:07:14

92 days to go gentlemen.

The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins.

Gentle reminder, in case anyone forgot...
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February 09, 2020, 09:52:35 PM

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

Reward-Drop ETA date: 12 May 2020 06:07:14

92 days to go gentlemen.

The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins.

Gentle reminder, in case anyone forgot...

You never know, some clueless NOCOINERS drop in to annoy us from time to time Wink
eddie13
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February 09, 2020, 09:56:15 PM

Fuck, I am too drunk to determine who won. At first instance it looks like it was eddie13. Is that right?

P.S.: On other news... WE ALL WON Tongue
I believe so. I'm 8 seconds slower. Congratz eddie13

If, after sobriety has been reclaimed, and/or rigorous examination of the photo finish determines me the winner, the address in my profile is good Smiley
-redacted-

https://youtu.be/qR7U1HIhxfA <needs a BTC remix..

I suggest addresses be communicated via PM. It makes it all too easy to link user to address (receiver and sender).

Yeah... But in fact the receiver address is indeed eddie13 profile bitcoin address and the sending address is in fact a virgin (no previous history) address I publicly used here to receive the Vegeta prize from LFC and also an address I have "staked" here in the forum.

So both are already completely username linked addresses and should be treated as such with no real need to hide it.

@LFC I hope you don't mind I funded my silly game (and maybe some others in the future) indirectly from your pocket lol
Hey that makes you a sponsor I guess!  Grin

If he would have requested it via PM I would have gladly obliged but other than that I'm not trying to be all anonymous, especially over $10...
It's too late by years for eddie13 to be anon.. I'll go under the radar some day if I feel I need/want to..
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February 09, 2020, 10:00:31 PM
Last edit: February 09, 2020, 10:16:14 PM by Gyrsur
Merited by OutOfMemory (1)

I have found the levels. Might be we will see some retracement from dirty shorters. be prepared and #BTFD. #nohomo



Quite mildly.
The median of the daily uptrend channel is at about $9.900 at the time. Let's see if this even gets touched.
EDIT. 4th day above the median line, by the way.
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February 09, 2020, 10:04:03 PM

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

Reward-Drop ETA date: 12 May 2020 06:07:14

92 days to go gentlemen.

The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins.

Gentle reminder, in case anyone forgot...

You never know, some clueless NOCOINERS drop in to annoy us from time to time Wink

Be ready for hordes of nocoiners flooding the gates of Bitcointalk.org when halving and ATH come.
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February 09, 2020, 10:06:01 PM
Last edit: February 09, 2020, 10:16:22 PM by eddie13


... yes, this is new ... up to now the narrative was spreads in droplets like the flu. wash hands, cover your mouth when coughing and nose when sneezing keep 6 feet separation, etc, etc. If true every droplet can essentially vapourize and spread in a fine dust-like plume wherever the wind takes it, ie. it's far more contagious than the flu, not just a little bit more.

It also explains why they lock-downed Wuhan on relatively low numbers of cases. And the other cities/regions.

Could be BS though, hope it is.

Wouldn't this imply that their was specific foreknowledge of the virus back when iirc the official narrative was they weren't even sure it was human-human transmissible?

I hope it is BS too, and am leaning towards it being BS, because I have never heard of any other contagion that can be contracted at "hundreds of meters"..

No, it's not unheard of this is why measles is so contagious ... it has R_o ~ 14

It's due to specific property of diameter of the virus, it's survival time outside the body, droplet size it is in solution with (type of fluids and coughing induced), air temperature, humidity, air turbulence, etc, i.e. much physics. Measles can spread from one end of a football stadium to another or linger in the air in a room for up 2 hours after being exhaled by the carrier.

edit: and yes would imply foreknowledge.


https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/409903O/respiratory-protection-against-biohazards.pdf


According to 3m CoV is about .125 uM in size.. so not so small..



Measles Virus Particles
"The sizes of MeV-like particles were distributed
between 50 and 1000 nm and the major distribution peak was found for particles with diameters of
350-400 nm"
https://www.osaka-med.ac.jp/deps/b-omc/articles/532/532daikoku.pdf


350nm=0.350um so measels is about 3X the size of CoV on average?
But possibly some are as small as 0.05um?


"""""
Let's just hope it isn't going to be TEOTWAWKI
JimboToronto
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February 09, 2020, 10:21:47 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


ppl group 0: mined/bought at any price --> sold never

I'd rather be on the other groups than taking my coins to my grave.

All that wealth don't mean shit when you are dead. At some point you should want to cash out if not, something isn't right there.

You just don't "cash out" all at once.

You sell bits as needed to pay for the good life, retaining the bulk to perpetuate it.
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February 09, 2020, 10:21:52 PM

I feel fine
bitserve
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February 09, 2020, 10:23:29 PM

Never sell all your BTC. Even if life requires you to raise cash please try to keep some you can afford to lose for that next parabolic rise in price.

I have always considered you a somewhat conservative (and many times correct) TA analyst. So, let me ask you this question, do you assign a good probability of BTC reaching or even exceeding $100K during the next couple of years? Really would like to know you opinion.

Thank you for the kind words. I have found Fibonacci extensions to be very valuable in projecting price action. Times have changed since the last parabolic rise and history does not have to repeat itself. Bitcoin still reigns with highest market cap and first mover advantage. I give odds about 60% that we will see a new ATH within the next two years and the first Fibonacci extension projection is at $24166.



There are some hurdles to overcome first. Ten grand is a significant first psychological barrier then when that falls and holds on volume we can start thinking about a new ATH. Times have changed and futures on bitcoin may tend to dampen a new parabolic rise. I don't see prices higher than $25000 impossible though, just lower probability over the next year or two.

The next higher Fibonacci extension past 1.27 is the 1.618 at $29,890. I don't think $100,000 is impossible within the next two years, just low probability. I would be happy with steady growth and adoption with real use of the Lightning network. Thirty thousand in three years but I could be too conservative: would be glad to be proven wrong.

Thanks for the info. Yeah, it makes sense and also is in line with your usual conservativeness. Good enough for me even if I do also hope for maybe even higher prices. We will see... "soon"... years pass a lot faster during a bull market
Olegya199
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February 09, 2020, 10:26:30 PM

Don't get mad at Luc.

He doesn't say it is going go to $6k without any conditions.

He says it will happen if it stays under $11k which is a pretty valid guess imo. I'll buy more tomorrow to help to invalidate this TA. If you want the same thing, you should too.

This thing won't go to $100k by itself, somebody has to buy it from $10k and $20k... $60k... and all the way up to $100k. Believe it or not, Some will even buy it at $100k.

This time BTC is going to $350-$450k so LOTS of peeps are going to jump in at $100k and further up.  Cool

Bruh, I think 350-450k might be a bit ambitious for this cycle. That kind of price will come in 2025 or something a year after the 2024 halving.

Just my opinion but obviously would love you to be right.

Maybe, but I have penciled in $70K-357K range ($350 is at the border, obviously) based on prior stats.
The median of $70-357K is about $213K, which is my best case scenario for the moment.
S2F predicted 6K level for the last cycle, we went about 3-3.5 times that in 2017.
If $100K is the average for the next cycle, then 300-350K is a similar size spike (followed by a 'plunge' to about $50-60k at the local bottom).
I really like your analytics, man! I hope you're a prophet and you will be. Wink
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February 09, 2020, 10:26:58 PM

You need more than 800 corpses that's for sure..

edit: these numbers comes close to the Tencent leak.





https://twitter.com/inteldotwav/status/1226267582740811777

Anything burning fuel produces SO2, including my truck.  
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February 09, 2020, 10:49:38 PM

via Imgflip Meme Generator

Coronavirus=Govs downplay or lie and print more money to calm markets=Moon
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February 09, 2020, 10:52:56 PM

I got my $3k number by extrapolating....
....
333,333.333333

hodl for 300k

I predicted a low of $3k about a year and a half ago and the next high around $300k..

The $3k low prediction held up pretty well and I'm no less confident in the 300k prediction since then, with about the same seriousness that I was saying "BTC to $10k" in 2014-2015..

I think $100k would be quite a conservative prediction for the peak after this next halving..
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February 09, 2020, 11:20:21 PM



Anything burning fuel produces SO2, including my truck.  

Traffic and industry about standing still in wuhan, just to remind you...
Still, these calculations are, if source parameters are verified, speculative at best.

I got my $3k number by extrapolating....
....
333,333.333333

hodl for 300k

I predicted a low of $3k about a year and a half ago and the next high around $300k..

The $3k low prediction held up pretty well and I'm no less confident in the 300k prediction since then, with about the same seriousness that I was saying "BTC to $10k" in 2014-2015..

I think $100k would be quite a conservative prediction for the peak after this next halving..

Many of the extrapolation results of 2017's bubble top were between about $40k and$50k iirc.?
Just for comparison, if you know or remember better, please let me know.
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February 09, 2020, 11:25:00 PM


Confirmed!
Thank you!

All them long days of manual trading paid off in them quick clicking skills I guess Smiley

Indeed. Managing to beat a previous Vegeta winner (Icygreen) by a full 8 seconds is certainly impressive!

Well done. Very well done.
I blame spotty internet of SE Asia  Cheesy Wink
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February 09, 2020, 11:28:29 PM

I got my $3k number by extrapolating....
....
333,333.333333

hodl for 300k

I predicted a low of $3k about a year and a half ago and the next high around $300k..

The $3k low prediction held up pretty well and I'm no less confident in the 300k prediction since then, with about the same seriousness that I was saying "BTC to $10k" in 2014-2015..

I think $100k would be quite a conservative prediction for the peak after this next halving..

Yes, 100k is the "Hodler's Guarantee"(confirmed by over 100 twitter accounts intelligence agencies) and the floor for the next moon. The ceiling for moon is probably in the 250-400k range.
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February 09, 2020, 11:32:45 PM


And Welcome Back bones261!

Just to let everyone know. I am doing great. Sorry to worry some people. I'm just for all intensive purposes a nocoiner now. I'll try to check in more often. We shall see.

Sometimes, in life, the priorities are what force us to make certain decisions, that's how it is, there is no more.

It is really difficult to say, for sure, or even to lecture someone else for taking a zero position in regards to bitcoin.

It is almost as if you have no spare income whatsoever.. or no view of the future or no ability to save.

So, maybe if you don't have any savings and only debt, then it would be better to get your debt paid off first and to establish yourself an ability to save... and if you have absolutely not enough money to put away that you can afford to not think about, then maybe you cannot be in bitcoin.. even if that is a mere $20 per month... or some low level like that.

There are usually ways that even really poor people are able to stack some investments away, and maybe the only exception would be if a person believes that he is not going to live more than a few years, so really in a liquidation phase of his life and liquidating most if not all assets.

It may be the case, but you can also have an unexpected unforeseen and you need liquidity, then you have to act, if for this you have to part with part of your investments, do it, you will have more opportunities to return to the market when your financial situation is stabilized.
If you can cover the unforeseen or economic urgency without borrowing better.

I am somewhat sympathetic to these kinds of possibilities, especially, if a person is still learning how to invest and how much to invest; however, a central strategy with investing into potentially volatile assets is NOT to invest more than you can afford to lose in order that you are never forced to cash out at a time that is NOT somewhat of your choosing.... so in that regard, it is way better to be forced to cash some out when the price is going up rather than going down or at a position in which your asset has lost money.

Of course, some emergencies are beyond expectations too, but if you are NOT overinvesting, then you should already have an emergency fund in order that you do not have to tap into your investments - unless it is at a time that is somewhat at your own choosing and the investment(s) are somewhat profitable.

This is part of the reason that it tends to take years and years and years for many people to build up their investment funds... and of course, if you only have $20 per month to invest it is going to take way the fuck longer to build up a decent amount of capital as compared to having $2k or more per month.

I am trying NOT to be overly judgmental about anyone because I know that people make mistakes and there are a decent number of folks who are in their 50s and 60s and older and have NOT really established an investment fund, even though they may have been engaged in what they considered to be investing strategies for 20 or more years of their lives.  Everyone is likely going to make some mistakes along the way, too, especially if managing their own portfolio, and I stick to my guns on the points that the more conservative strategies are going to tend to be the strongest, especially if measuring to show the building of profits and the size of the portfolio over 20-30 or more years of investing.

Maybe part of my point, too, is that there may be more abilities to make some mistakes when you are in your 20s; however, by the time, you are in your 30s you do not have as much time to be making mistakes and you have to have started to build some kind of stash that continues to build.

I had always taken at least 10% of my income and put it into investing, and I kind of hate to admit that some of my college loan money was used for investing too, even though there were some years that I did NOT really have much of an income.. and there were some years that my college loans were greater than my total assets and my investment funds, but my investment fund continued to build even though there was times that on paper my networth was negative.  So maybe taking out loans for education has to end up with a job that pays way more than the extra amounts of the loans, and I could see where some of that might go bad, but still seems that if you want to get out of the ratt race, you gotta continue to build the investment funds that would also include being covered for various emergencies that can happen (and will happen).   
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February 09, 2020, 11:35:12 PM
Last edit: February 09, 2020, 11:49:49 PM by dragonvslinux
Merited by eddie13 (1)

I got my $3k number by extrapolating....
....
333,333.333333

hodl for 300k

I predicted a low of $3k about a year and a half ago and the next high around $300k..

The $3k low prediction held up pretty well and I'm no less confident in the 300k prediction since then, with about the same seriousness that I was saying "BTC to $10k" in 2014-2015..

I think $100k would be quite a conservative prediction for the peak after this next halving..

Nice prediction, interesting to hear you think it'll go to $300K next cycle. With most people believing that prices will only go 5-10x from ATH ($10K0-200K) until topping out, given the similarities with the recent 2012 style correction, I think we could be leading up to a much larger bubble top than 2018. I don't just mean higher, I mean more parabolic and for longer than 2017. Think 2012 leading into 2013 with a harsh "fake top" correction around $100K. Fiat collapse style parabolic, all the signs are there to take Bitcoin to an incomparable value with fiat.
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February 09, 2020, 11:37:19 PM
Merited by Cryptotourist (1), OutOfMemory (1)



Anything burning fuel produces SO2, including my truck.  

Traffic and industry about standing still in wuhan, just to remind you...
Still, these calculations are, if source parameters are verified, speculative at best.

I got my $3k number by extrapolating....
....
333,333.333333

hodl for 300k

I predicted a low of $3k about a year and a half ago and the next high around $300k..

The $3k low prediction held up pretty well and I'm no less confident in the 300k prediction since then, with about the same seriousness that I was saying "BTC to $10k" in 2014-2015..

I think $100k would be quite a conservative prediction for the peak after this next halving..

Many of the extrapolation results of 2017's bubble top were between about $40k and$50k iirc.?
Just for comparison, if you know or remember better, please let me know.

Yes, I remember well once we hit 20k the pumpers and latecomers all started calling for 40k "soon" and possibly in just days or weeks. I think 20k came so fast that most were shocked and the euphoria was real so they just decided to come up with a new price target off the cuff and 40k was the go to target bc it was double the 20k milestone that created massive euphoria and got the attention of the world.

Miner fees became insanely expensive and the bubble bursted as newbs were shocked it cost 15 dollars to move a few hundred bucks worth of bitcoin, they just couldnt understand why the CEO of Bitcoin would raise the price of fees Roll Eyes. IMO this started the bear market. Once you reach certain bubbly heights it doesnt take much to prick it.

Hopefully scaling solutions will prevent that this time around. Hopefully.....
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February 09, 2020, 11:44:00 PM

Be ready for hordes of nocoiners flooding the gates of Bitcointalk.org when halving and ATH come.

What's the best defence against a nocoiner: burning oil, flaming arrows, a good ol' pitchfork?

(I know some nancy-boy will respond with knowledge and fine argument!)
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