Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[serveria.com]

I'm schocked about Swiss cocaine abuse.

After the event we're not allowed to discuss here the country we'll choose as a location for the said event will quite (un)expectedly enter this top.  

[serveria.com]

I quote this from my difficulty thread as the moderator may delete it.

Today btc is down.  For a trader it may be good or bad depending on his bets.
For a hodler it is a buy the dip chance.

For me I now earn more btc mining eth at nicehash then I did yesterday. So it is a hedge for me.

It always allows me to continue my fun buy and hold at PayPal as I will buy $20 more on my PayPal account.

I think the majority of the first S19 batches are already online and have been for a month or so. I could be wrong, but I don't think there will be any more coming online till January now.

I can't complain, this means we have about 8 weeks of good profitability regardless of what the price might or might not do, this should make up a bit for all the losses which many of us have been facing with the 17 series gears. .

Current difficulty status

Current Pace:   88.2848%  (1311 / 1484.97 expected, 173.97 behind)
Current Difficulty:   19997335994446.11
Next Difficulty:   between 17688830739610 and 17942127621555
Next Difficulty Change:   between -11.5441% and -10.2774%
Previous Retarget:   October 17, 2020 at 5:34 PM  (+3.6234%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 8:42 AM  (in 5d 7h 38m 22s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 2:10 PM  (in 5d 13h 5m 31s)

BTC price is making new highs, currently at $13777, which is great, if we break that 14k level, we should head straight to 16k, with difficulty dropping >10% is just too good to be true as Phil said.

Yeah I can sell a bit today and hedge if it crashes .
What is Nice is if it goes up I also do okay.
Since I earn more which makes up for the sale.

Concededly, I am NOT mining, so I do not have the same kinds of "hands on" and personal experience as you guys, yet I am having some troubles understanding the degree to which any kind of meaningful changes in mining difficulty are taking place.  When I look at the difficulty measurements, I mostly see minor fluctuations, especially if such measurements are made over each of the adjustment periods.

https://btc.com/stats/diff

So, currently, the difficulty estimator is showing that the next adjustment of difficulty is currently projected to be down about 5.91% in 5 days and 8 hours.... and I know that those projections can end up changing, too.. but even if such downward difficulty projection plays out, it still keeps difficulty higher than it was 4 adjustments back - on 9/7.

From a non-miner perspective, the adjustments to difficulty do not seem to be very great, significant or material, even if miners are reporting on the ground that these kinds of adjustments have a lot of meaningful impact on their own profitability - coupled with short-term UPpity BTC price moves?

Miners have to micro manage.

Forget all costs except power.  Power is paid in cash not BTC.

Monthly bills are common

So a 2 week difficulty is about 1/2 of your bill time.

Next jump is -10% and it lasts for 14 or even as much as 16 days if it is a big drop.
Since we know that rainy season prices ended for power in China the jump after this one will be -3 to +3 (estimate)

I know 28-32 days of good difficulty are coming.  I can micromanage those days. I can turn an almost certain profit for that time period.
In my case I am a 4 man team with a small team. On great months we make 8000 a month on shit months we make 2000 a month.

That is usd profit. Last month we made 2600 usd.
The projected profit based on difficulty will be 1.1 x 1.03 = 1.133 x 1 higher than last month.

This allows me a cash out choice of 345 worth of coin into fiat

2600 x 1.113 = 2945

2945-2600 = 345   and be cashed and we can still hodl the same 2600 usd worth of coin we held last month.

What kills miners is over expanding and not hodling some of the profit.

I always need to study my:
 
cash
coins
gpus
asics
debt

 vs the diff the next 2 diff and the current price along with 20% lower price and 20% higher price.

This lets me know if I need to sell some coin buy some gear sell some gear.

Look at a model with 8k a month for 12 months = 96k
Look at a model with 2k a month for 12 months = 24k

play with debt number.
play with diff number.

We have some time had 6 months of flat diff = good time to expand your mining gear

Hey I'd like to start mining ETH just for fun. What are the specs of the GPU rig you could suggest? Nothing fancy just a budget GPU. Any hints?

[ivomm]

[editet out]

Hey I'd like to start mining ETH just for fun. What are the specs of the GPU rig you could suggest? Nothing fancy just a budget GPU. Any hints?

Today AMD announced new cards 7nm navi 2. I expect 6800 xt to be the best for mining with price starting from $550. The navi 1 radeon vii was a beast with around 100 Mh, so I guess something like 150 Mh for 250 W. It is comparable with the asic miners, so for the next year this will be the card to go for mining.

[Last of the V8s]

In reaction to today's historic stock market plunge, the @federalreserve is - AT THIS SECOND - providing a massive liquidity injection, seen here:

https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1321476308631646208

[El duderino_]

Some have asked how much #BTC  I own. I personally #hodl 17,732 BTC which I bought at $9,882 each on average. I informed MicroStrategy of these holdings before the company decided to buy #bitcoin  for itself.

https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1321422012380753921?s=21

#boss

[serveria.com]

Some have asked how much #BTC  I own. I personally #hodl 17,732 BTC which I bought at $9,882 each on average. I informed MicroStrategy of these holdings before the company decided to buy #bitcoin  for itself.

https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1321422012380753921?s=21

#boss

#fuckingwhale 

[OutOfMemory]

Holy shit, you guys are still here? Amazing. Haven't checked bitcointalk in years.

& you seem you have had the same password all those years   
watch out 

I always appreciate it when old members suddenly appear out of nowhere. Like ancient druids dripping in at stonehenge the day before full moon.

Hehe, indeed. Were passwords compromised somewhere along the way? I'm only able to log into old stuff because I have a password manager. All my shit is unique/max length random characters.

No worries, i just wanted to point out that it's a good idea to change passwords from time to time.
If you didn't check by in years, you likely didn't get the password changed (yet).
I have an abandoned account here as well, left it for opsec reasons, but changed the pass to a long, unique random string too but i didn't save it anywhere.

But you're totally right that it's the day before the full moon.

My moon app tells me it's about two days to go.
The old druids, so it's said, were to meet in their sacred places at full moon, and they were "called" by the spirits at the exact date. No appointments made.
My statement was more a satiric expression of bitcoin's next ATH (Q4 2021, if somebody would ask me)...

Have a nice time and welcome back  

[TryNinja]

Luckily @tryninja bot is smart enough to limit to one notification per post.

Could we find an arrangement to send 1 Merit to fillippone every 24 seconds or so?

#nohomobutsexissex

Vibrator Massage mode is coming soon™

[Paashaas]

https://twitter.com/AvantiBT/status/1321546835232632832

https://avantibank.com/bank-charter-granted/

[friends1980]

https://twitter.com/AvantiBT/status/1321546835232632832

https://avantibank.com/bank-charter-granted/

So now they're officially subject to all the rules which were the reason for creating BTC in the first place. Yippee fucking yay.

[machasm]

Hey I'd like to start mining ETH just for fun. What are the specs of the GPU rig you could suggest? Nothing fancy just a budget GPU. Any hints?

As Ivomm said the new Rex 6xxx cards are due to be released on the 18th Nov and I am sure that they are going to be great performers.
That said, it is likely that the current crop of cards will be flooding eBay with bargains galore.
The 5700 xt will yield around 57 to 58 Mhs.
So a 6 gpu rig will get you around 340 Mhs or so.
If you donm't ind spending a fair wedge of money then wait for the 6xxx series but if you want a cheaper rig then you can't go wrong with the 5700 or 5700 xt.
I have a 6 GPU rig with 6 powercolor red dragons and it makes me around 0.1 Eth every 4.5 days.

https://imgur.com/gallery/t1FHfII

[Hueristic]

Ended up here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zs5NOrYYV2s

AGAIN...And Again...and again...

[Hueristic]

I'm schocked about Swiss cocaine abuse.

Looks like I found my Vacation list.

[goldkingcoiner]

https://twitter.com/AvantiBT/status/1321546835232632832

https://avantibank.com/bank-charter-granted/

So now they're officially subject to all the rules which were the reason for creating BTC in the first place. Yippee fucking yay.

When "be your own bank" is SEVERLY misunderstood  

[philipma1957]

I quote this from my difficulty thread as the moderator may delete it.

Today btc is down.  For a trader it may be good or bad depending on his bets.
For a hodler it is a buy the dip chance.

For me I now earn more btc mining eth at nicehash then I did yesterday. So it is a hedge for me.

It always allows me to continue my fun buy and hold at PayPal as I will buy $20 more on my PayPal account.

I think the majority of the first S19 batches are already online and have been for a month or so. I could be wrong, but I don't think there will be any more coming online till January now.

I can't complain, this means we have about 8 weeks of good profitability regardless of what the price might or might not do, this should make up a bit for all the losses which many of us have been facing with the 17 series gears. .

Current difficulty status

Current Pace:   88.2848%  (1311 / 1484.97 expected, 173.97 behind)
Current Difficulty:   19997335994446.11
Next Difficulty:   between 17688830739610 and 17942127621555
Next Difficulty Change:   between -11.5441% and -10.2774%
Previous Retarget:   October 17, 2020 at 5:34 PM  (+3.6234%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 8:42 AM  (in 5d 7h 38m 22s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 2:10 PM  (in 5d 13h 5m 31s)

BTC price is making new highs, currently at $13777, which is great, if we break that 14k level, we should head straight to 16k, with difficulty dropping >10% is just too good to be true as Phil said.

Yeah I can sell a bit today and hedge if it crashes .
What is Nice is if it goes up I also do okay.
Since I earn more which makes up for the sale.

Concededly, I am NOT mining, so I do not have the same kinds of "hands on" and personal experience as you guys, yet I am having some troubles understanding the degree to which any kind of meaningful changes in mining difficulty are taking place.  When I look at the difficulty measurements, I mostly see minor fluctuations, especially if such measurements are made over each of the adjustment periods.

https://btc.com/stats/diff

So, currently, the difficulty estimator is showing that the next adjustment of difficulty is currently projected to be down about 5.91% in 5 days and 8 hours.... and I know that those projections can end up changing, too.. but even if such downward difficulty projection plays out, it still keeps difficulty higher than it was 4 adjustments back - on 9/7.

From a non-miner perspective, the adjustments to difficulty do not seem to be very great, significant or material, even if miners are reporting on the ground that these kinds of adjustments have a lot of meaningful impact on their own profitability - coupled with short-term UPpity BTC price moves?

Miners have to micro manage.

Forget all costs except power.  Power is paid in cash not BTC.

Monthly bills are common

So a 2 week difficulty is about 1/2 of your bill time.

Next jump is -10% and it lasts for 14 or even as much as 16 days if it is a big drop.
Since we know that rainy season prices ended for power in China the jump after this one will be -3 to +3 (estimate)

I know 28-32 days of good difficulty are coming.  I can micromanage those days. I can turn an almost certain profit for that time period.
In my case I am a 4 man team with a small team. On great months we make 8000 a month on shit months we make 2000 a month.

That is usd profit. Last month we made 2600 usd.
The projected profit based on difficulty will be 1.1 x 1.03 = 1.133 x 1 higher than last month.

This allows me a cash out choice of 345 worth of coin into fiat

2600 x 1.113 = 2945

2945-2600 = 345   and be cashed and we can still hodl the same 2600 usd worth of coin we held last month.

What kills miners is over expanding and not hodling some of the profit.

I always need to study my:
 
cash
coins
gpus
asics
debt

 vs the diff the next 2 diff and the current price along with 20% lower price and 20% higher price.

This lets me know if I need to sell some coin buy some gear sell some gear.

Look at a model with 8k a month for 12 months = 96k
Look at a model with 2k a month for 12 months = 24k

play with debt number.
play with diff number.

We have some time had 6 months of flat diff = good time to expand your mining gear

Hey I'd like to start mining ETH just for fun. What are the specs of the GPU rig you could suggest? Nothing fancy just a budget GPU. Any hints?

Sent a pm to you.

[philipma1957]

[editet out]

Hey I'd like to start mining ETH just for fun. What are the specs of the GPU rig you could suggest? Nothing fancy just a budget GPU. Any hints?

Today AMD announced new cards 7nm navi 2. I expect 6800 xt to be the best for mining with price starting from $550. The navi 1 radeon vii was a beast with around 100 Mh, so I guess something like 150 Mh for 250 W. It is comparable with the asic miners, so for the next year this will be the card to go for mining.

He can start today with a 5600xt like this

https://www.amazon.com/MSI-Radeon-RX-5600-XT/dp/B08CKDLN91/ref=sxts_sxwds-bia-wc-p13n1_0?

mounted to a board like this

 https://www.ebay.com/itm/Onda-B250-D8P-D4-Ver-1-00-12-GPU-Mining-Motherboard-with-CPU-and-4GB-DDR4-Bundle/233761067107?

and a decent psu like this

https://www.ebay.com/itm/CORSAIR-RMx-Series-RM850x-CP-9020180-NA-850W-ATX12V-EPS12V-80-PLUS-GOLD-Certif/302647528762?


this would be a mining rig with room to expand down the road.

my thread here has a lot of info


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5144362.0


you can opt for mining rigs
you can opt for gamer/miner rig.

[Biodom]

rig-only if you have a place to put it outside or in the basement.
IDK, maybe they make more silent cards now. I am running only one card now- just for kicks.
Somehow multiple cards are always too loud for me (after a while).

RE Saylor...he plomped $170 mil of his OWN money into the corn as well.
https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1321422012380753921

the guy knows how to DCA,  

[xhomerx10]

rig-only if you have a place to put it outside or in the basement.
IDK, maybe they make more silent cards now. I am running only one card now- just for kicks.
Somehow multiple cards are always too loud for me (after a while).

RE Saylor...he plomped $170 mil of his OWN money into the corn as well.
https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1321422012380753921

the guy knows how to DCA,  

 If by DCA you mean Dollar Cost Annihilating, then I totally agree
 

[JayJuanGee]

Don't know if you were tracking the BTC/SXP correlation, it was really high for a while.

I was tracking that it did not exist, but lots of normies were talking about it, as if it existed.

In the last few days it detached, BTC flew higher while SPX is crashing. Good for hopium while we're waiting for the highest BTC monthly close in its existence.

How could it detach, if it did not exist?

 

[Syke]

RE Saylor...he plomped $170 mil of his OWN money into the corn as well.
https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1321422012380753921

the guy knows how to DCA,  

I literally don't know what I would do if I was sitting on a $60m profit.