Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BobLawblaw]

[Paashaas]

Cool/Scary.  This could cause the west to start considering an adversarial stance towards Bitcoin.  Which we all know would be foolish.  But still...

Iran is bypassing the dollar and other currencies by using bitcoin which creates new economic opportunities, this will not be unnoticed by other countries, it has to start somewhere.

The digital Euro, Dollar and Yuan are coming and the Chinese want to replace the Dollar with Yuan as the new world reserve currency.( big reset?) Exiting times ahead, cAPSLOCK.

[bitebits]

Also there are large drops in difficulty due to end of rainy season in China.

This puts downward pressure on price.

This difficulty my gear earns 1 btc for the entire 2 weeks

But with a 15% drops in diff next 2 weeks

I earn 1.15btc

this means as a  miner I have a spare 0.15btc due to higher earnings which I can sell off.

Thus downward pressure on price from miners for the next 17 days.


besides the expected .15 increase in coin for a 1 btc miner there are huge fees.

https://www.blockchain.com/explorer?utm_campaign=dcomnav_explorer

blocks
654662 over 2.8 coins in fees
654661 over 2.5 coins in fees
654660 over 2.6 coins in fees

huge amounts note ant pool made 2 of those blocks more then 5.3 coins in fees they pocket and can sell instantly  thus more downward price pressure.

So whales sitting on 50 million in profit
and big pools getting huge fees

both point to us going down in price.

Also there are large drops in difficulty due to end of rainy season in China.

This puts downward pressure on price.

This difficulty my gear earns 1 btc for the entire 2 weeks

But with a 15% drops in diff next 2 weeks

I earn 1.15btc

this means as a  miner I have a spare 0.15btc due to higher earnings which I can sell off.

Thus downward pressure on price from miners for the next 17 days.


besides the expected .15 increase in coin for a 1 btc miner there are huge fees.

https://www.blockchain.com/explorer?utm_campaign=dcomnav_explorer

blocks
654662 over 2.8 coins in fees
654661 over 2.5 coins in fees
654660 over 2.6 coins in fees

huge amounts note ant pool made 2 of those blocks more then 5.3 coins in fees they pocket and can sell instantly  thus more downward price pressure.

So whales sitting on 50 million in profit
and big pools getting huge fees

both point to us going down in price.

But if miners shut down, you own a larger part of the hashrate. You therefore receive more bitcoins per slower block. Yes?
Additionally fees are higher so you receive a higher miner fee per block.

I don't see why this would cause downward pressure. Doesn't it level out? And when the difficulty adjusts in four days or so you even benefit from your larger share in the hashrate.

Interesting, there must be an Excel sheet out there doing the math.

[JayJuanGee]

RE Saylor...he plomped $170 mil of his OWN money into the corn as well.
https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1321422012380753921

the guy knows how to DCA,  

I literally don't know what I would do if I was sitting on a $60m profit.

sell 10%, use $6 mil-that's easy.

Hahahaha... then you could sit back and relax to have your $6 million in cold "hard" cash and thereby be able to draw your $240k per year / $20k per month in passive income - not that you needed to withdraw $6 million in order to feel such comfort-levels, but to each his own.

By the way, you could have just left the $60 million in the fund, and drew 10x my above numbers.... $2.4 million per year / $200k per month... minor details...

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1321464188271763463

Lopp: Acquire more bitcoin before @michael_saylor buys them all.

Michael Saylor: Once you understand #Bitcoin, you go to bed each night with anxiety, feeling chronically short.

I know that many of us mere mortals have difficulties understanding how anyone could feel that they do not have enough bitcoin if they have close to 18k of them and also own overwhelming majority in a company that owns more than 38k BTC... Just have difficulties understanding how that quantity might not feel like enough.  Or is it just me?

[Phil_S]

I feel no anxiety whatsoever.

[PoolMinor]

BTC difficulty now: 19,997,335,994,446

BTC Difficulty 2013 June (Just after I started mining): 19,339,258

1 million times more 

[ivomm]

Observing $13 600 and rising. Shorts are not safe. $14K incoming  

[cAPSLOCK]

13880 Well within the channel we now inhabit.

Once that is breeched 14k will be taken out forcefully.  Once we are solidly north of 13880 I think money starts rushing in.

Whether we dip again after that is up for grabs... But I say since we bounced off the trend line on the way up pretty hard that once we breech it we are likely headed north pretty quick.

Jinx?

[OROBTC]

...

I just received my bitpay debit card, today I will activate it (can't on the iPhone app for some reason).  THIS will mean that I now have an easy off-ramp to sell BTC if/when I want to, it will even work for getting FIAT$ at regular bank ATMs.  I'll report back, perhaps at a new thread as well, once I have test-fired it.

This also means that for us non-tekkies that we have relatively easy on and off ramps for Bitcoin to/from cash.  This is important.  With bitpay and LibertyX, I have been able to make it much easier for me to get in and out EASILY (and CHEAPLY) whenever that might become an issue.  Without having to use exchanges...

As more such services come out, more new users will enter the Bitcoin Ecosystem!  They will have confidence that it is somewhat easy to use.  We will see more and more users enter, big and small.  

And more and more will BUY & HODL.  Confidence that "normal" people can get in and out is vital.

[NONE of my few rich relatives are into (AFAIK) Bitcoin, they are missing out, but some will see the light soon]


^--- TL/DR?  Expect BTC to keep moving up (over time).  The numbers tossed around here may actually happen...  

1% of our net for us wimpy conservative thinkers (also older), a higher percentage for the bold.


Edited

[d_eddie]

Leave of absence, my friends. Busy with life. A few people around me were hit by this virus, but they've all recovered or are recovering.

Looking forward to more loitering here. Hopefully soon.

Go bitcoin go!

[bitebits]

I know that many of us mere mortals have difficulties understanding how anyone could feel that they do not have enough bitcoin if they have close to 18k of them and also own overwhelming majority in a company that owns more than 38k BTC... Just have difficulties understanding how that quantity might not feel like enough.  Or is it just me?

Bigger pockets, bigger goals. That’s all. He is mortal like you and me, and we have both experienced first hand you can never have enough bitcoins. Once you reach your number you start thinking about the next one shortly after. Soon at the ATH there will again only be regrets not buying more.

And add some FOMO feelings to the mix. He has never been through a bear market before, not even a proper dip.

[bkbirge]

I know that many of us mere mortals have difficulties understanding how anyone could feel that they do not have enough bitcoin if they have close to 18k of them and also own overwhelming majority in a company that owns more than 38k BTC... Just have difficulties understanding how that quantity might not feel like enough.  Or is it just me?

It's not just you. At that level it seems less about bringing freedom and securing a future than it does about collecting the world's wealth into yet another segment of the uber rich. A sort of tech version of the Cantillon Effect. I'm not saying I wouldn't do the same if I had the resources but it's kind of kicking sand in the BTC narrative of equality and opportunity for the unbanked. Just more of the same story of the rich getting richer, anyone arguing otherwise maybe isn't looking at it from the point of view of the masses. Wherever you land on that argument I'm guessing that level of accumulation isn't something most of us would make public.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

1% of our net for us wimpy conservative thinkers (also older), a higher percentage for the bold.

Bro, national fiat currencies & traditional investments/savings are going to tank hard in the short to medium term future. You need to be WAY more invested in BTC than1%.

[FullNode]

Bitcoin adoption could reach 90% by 2030, investment firm founder claims
Adoption started slow but has ramped up with the passage of time.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-adoption-could-reach-90-by-2030-investment-firm-founder-claims

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

I am having a feeling that we may have below $13k

Let's hope I am wrong.

[Biodom]

I know that many of us mere mortals have difficulties understanding how anyone could feel that they do not have enough bitcoin if they have close to 18k of them and also own overwhelming majority in a company that owns more than 38k BTC... Just have difficulties understanding how that quantity might not feel like enough.  Or is it just me?

Bigger pockets, bigger goals. That’s all. He is mortal like you and me, and we have both experienced first hand you can never have enough bitcoins. Once you reach your number you start thinking about the next one shortly after. Soon at the ATH there will again only be regrets not buying more.

And add some FOMO feelings to the mix. He has never been through a bear market before, not even a proper dip.

Absolutely..in fact many rich, who are buying just now, will probably consult with Winkelvoss bros during the bear.
The bros (and Palihapytia) appear to run it up and down one-two times already.
Winkelevi-going from 2bil to "measly" 300mil must have hurt.
Remember that "billionaire" character from "Silicon Valley" show:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9Bg4UU76so

"why the f-k I smoke so many cigars?"

[Stavri]

All global markets are red today. Everything is negative...

US elections are about to start. France, Netherlands and Germany are entering to lockdown.

Bitcoin is still looks very strong. Looks like getting power from the chaos.

[philipma1957]

Also there are large drops in difficulty due to end of rainy season in China.

This puts downward pressure on price.

This difficulty my gear earns 1 btc for the entire 2 weeks

But with a 15% drops in diff next 2 weeks

I earn 1.15btc

this means as a  miner I have a spare 0.15btc due to higher earnings which I can sell off.

Thus downward pressure on price from miners for the next 17 days.


besides the expected .15 increase in coin for a 1 btc miner there are huge fees.

https://www.blockchain.com/explorer?utm_campaign=dcomnav_explorer

blocks
654662 over 2.8 coins in fees
654661 over 2.5 coins in fees
654660 over 2.6 coins in fees

huge amounts note ant pool made 2 of those blocks more then 5.3 coins in fees they pocket and can sell instantly  thus more downward price pressure.

So whales sitting on 50 million in profit
and big pools getting huge fees

both point to us going down in price.

Also there are large drops in difficulty due to end of rainy season in China.

This puts downward pressure on price.

This difficulty my gear earns 1 btc for the entire 2 weeks

But with a 15% drops in diff next 2 weeks

I earn 1.15btc

this means as a  miner I have a spare 0.15btc due to higher earnings which I can sell off.

Thus downward pressure on price from miners for the next 17 days.


besides the expected .15 increase in coin for a 1 btc miner there are huge fees.

https://www.blockchain.com/explorer?utm_campaign=dcomnav_explorer

blocks
654662 over 2.8 coins in fees
654661 over 2.5 coins in fees
654660 over 2.6 coins in fees

huge amounts note ant pool made 2 of those blocks more then 5.3 coins in fees they pocket and can sell instantly  thus more downward price pressure.

So whales sitting on 50 million in profit
and big pools getting huge fees

both point to us going down in price.

But if miners shut down, you own a larger part of the hashrate. You therefore receive more bitcoins per slower block. Yes?
Additionally fees are higher so you receive a higher miner fee per block.

I don't see why this would cause downward pressure. Doesn't it level out? And when the difficulty adjusts in four days or so you even benefit from your larger share in the hashrate.

Interesting, there must be an Excel sheet out there doing the math.

Yes lets say these 14 days I earned 1 btc and can hodl 0.5 btc from that.

Next 14 days I earn 1.15 btc

So I know I have .15 btc excess

This allows me to sell it and not lower my btc. hodl of .5btc.

So every miner knows they can sell a bit extra and still hodl the same .5btc so .15 btc extra of every btc can be sold.

as for pools that keep most if not all of the fees. antpool makes 20 blocks a day so 20 x 2 = 40 btc extra each day income for a while puts downward price pressure.

this is all short term until next jump.

https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Latest Block:   654684  (32 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   85.7778%  (1501 / 1749.87 expected, 248.87 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   19298087186262.61                           
Current Difficulty:   19997335994446.11                           
Next Difficulty:   between 17181497331477 and 17340842618679
Next Difficulty Change:   between -14.0811% and -13.2842%
Previous Retarget:   October 17, 2020 at 11:34 AM  (+3.6234%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 2:39 PM  (in 4d 0h 25m 45s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 6:17 PM  (in 4d 4h 3m 52s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 16d 4h 4m 26s and 16d 7h 42m 34s

 
we are going to do a 16 day jump not 14


just because this downward pressure is happening now does not mean fomo won't happen.

So on Nov 2 this particular factor leaves us. it only lasts
Thur
Fri
Sat
Sun
Mon

The actual hash rate has dropped 20 to 33% since the 17th
the diff is reflecting 14% of it as the drop was gradual and the diff shows the peak and the lowest and average.

but today's hash rate is 97-101 eh accord to this

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#3m

[hv_]

I missed I was too low on that poll.

This time I voted we go under 13k.

Bear 

Bearnance

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeldelcastillo/2020/10/29/leaked-tai-chi-document-reveals-binances-elaborate-scheme-to-evade-bitcoin-regulators/

[FullNode]

Master xhomerx10 is this image valid to make a hat?
I would like to wear an authentic xhomer hat,soon
Thanks in advance