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Question: Price prediction for the May 21 weekly close:
<$20,000 - 6 (7.5%)
$20,000 - $22,000 - 0 (0%)
$22,000 - $24,000 - 2 (2.5%)
$24,000 - $26,000 - 3 (3.8%)
$26,000 - $28,000 - 7 (8.8%)
$28,000 - $30,000 - 11 (13.8%)
$30,000 - $32,000 - 17 (21.3%)
$32,000 - $34,000 - 8 (10%)
$34,000 - $36,000 - 6 (7.5%)
$36,000 - $38,000 - 3 (3.8%)
$38,000 - $40,000 - 2 (2.5%)
>$40,000 - 15 (18.8%)
Total Voters: 80

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25619751 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (160 posts by 2 users with 9 merit deleted.)
gappie
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September 18, 2020, 10:38:31 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Toxic2040 (1)

Quote
According to Saylor, the second main objection outsiders have is "what about the volatility?"How is an asset a store of value if it can have double-digit days up or down?

Saylor retorts that volatility is falling, and he's not wrong. Bitcoin was volatile in 2017 at the peak of retail mania. This year, we've seen a prolonged period of low-volatility consolidation.

Part of the reason for decreased volatility is the activity of institutions like MicroStrategy. Institutional money entering an asset class dampens volatility in both directions.

Quote
Saylor states that he was "in the market for every minute" for several days, presumably using advanced trade execution services to ensure that this massive purchase of Bitcoin didn't move markets. In fact, he claims that MicroStrategy's purchase dampened volatility in Bitcoin markets instead of causing price swings.

Apparently MicroStrategy was in the market for weeks buying incremental amounts on a daily basis without moving the market. We can assume that this also helped to dampen downward price movements. How do we foresee this kind of institutional demand impacting on the downward volatility in the coming months? Can we possibly expect a reduced percentage drop after the next 4-year ATH in 2022/23? The typically 80% draw down could be reduced to <50% in the next bear market?

This revelation makes me reconsider how much I might be willing to sell near this cycle top.
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September 18, 2020, 11:35:51 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1)



The dude is slurping on the pipe
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September 18, 2020, 01:28:02 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)



The dude is slurping on the pipe

what feelings after water  Wink

#Bitcoin relative strength index (RSI) almost 3 years <65. Do you think we will stay there forever .. or do we enter a >65 period next?

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1306888161625243649
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September 18, 2020, 01:50:55 PM

Domain Registration Service NameCheap Now Accepts Bitcoin Via BTCPay.

Quote
The Los Angeles-based domain registrar service Namecheap on September 17th announced that it will be supporting Bitcoin payments made through BTCPay, an open-source, self-hosted cryptocurrency payment processor focused on security, privacy, and censorship-resistance. Namecheap's decision to integrate BTCPay comes after a number of the service's customers said they preferred that payment processor over its competitor BitPay, which Namecheap has long supported. Smiley

This is great news. I have used them and expressed dissatisfaction with the fact that they're using BitPay. I had to install an electrum wallet just to pay for my hosting.
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September 18, 2020, 02:25:45 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1)



The dude clearly found a hidden BTC’er on his trip
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September 18, 2020, 02:31:21 PM
Merited by infofront (1)

Presented with no comment:



On track...  This weekend I think:

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September 18, 2020, 02:41:54 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2)

https://twitter.com/ki_young_ju/status/1306659823656734720/photo/1

Seems like a pretty good indicator of when the whales are about to short the price right into the ground, or to let it sail to new highs....

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September 18, 2020, 02:42:14 PM

4 hours ago

7,493 #BTC (82,332,860 USD) transferred from unknown wallet to #Bitstamp

1 hour ago

7,492 #BTC (82,594,291 USD) transferred from #Bitstamp to unknown wallet

Whale just moving his coins  Grin
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September 18, 2020, 02:42:22 PM



The dude clearly found a hidden BTC’er on his trip

I promise I am not him!
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September 18, 2020, 03:11:10 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (8)

we shall see, not selling anything, only buying.


+1 WOsMerit

There is nothing wrong with using and or selling bitcoin when you need to..that what it is for imo. That being said, I find great pleasure using it as a incredibly secure store of value.



------

https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1306636046948610049

Quote
We acquired 21,454 BTC via 78,388 off-chain transactions, then secured it in cold storage with 18 on-chain transactions.  #Bitcoin scales just fine as a store of value.


+1 WOsMerit

 Roll Eyes


------

Domain Registration Service NameCheap Now Accepts Bitcoin Via BTCPay.

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The Los Angeles-based domain registrar service Namecheap on September 17th announced that it will be supporting Bitcoin payments made through BTCPay, an open-source, self-hosted cryptocurrency payment processor focused on security, privacy, and censorship-resistance. Namecheap's decision to integrate BTCPay comes after a number of the service's customers said they preferred that payment processor over its competitor BitPay, which Namecheap has long supported. Smiley

+1 WOsMerit


------

Bakkt volume made another ATH.



+1 WOsMerit


------


monetized value

value has been residing in the analog world since value existed. since the historical process of digitization started in the 20th century it was only information that got digitized. which already changed the world, changed our everyday lives and our lives as a whole. everything that got digitized transformed into something that could be utilized orders of magnitude better compared to its analog state. the velocity of digital information dwarfs anything analog. digitization today is the equivalent of industrialization of the 19th century, a true world changer.

I am not saying that digital stuff wasn't valuable or valued before 2009. software vendors had and have ways sell digital products for money, that is not the point. any transformation of value itself to the digital realm can only happen through a vehicle that possess digital scarcity and bitcoin is the only digital scarce asset known so far. with the invention of digital scarcity in 2009 it is now possible for value itself to migrate into the digital world.

monetary value is just information. no one knows today how much of the analog monetary value will end up getting digitized. how much analog information is moving around today? how much went digital?


there is trillions and trillions of analog monetary value. there are only 21 million digitally scarce bitcoin. this will be fun to watch unfold as a hodler of bitcoin.





+2 WOsMerits



------

morning charts


still hodling

#dyor


1h


4h

#stronghands
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September 18, 2020, 03:25:05 PM

11K kaboom! :-D gogogooo//^$$$
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September 18, 2020, 03:47:31 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), cAPSLOCK (1), ivomm (1), julian071 (1)

proudhon + gembitz = BULL!

Honfirmed!
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September 18, 2020, 04:33:41 PM
Last edit: September 18, 2020, 05:02:51 PM by VB1001
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


www.wohats.com

I was always curious to know the number of hats/year of registration.

(The year of registration in the forum has nothing to do with the date they decided to wear a hat)

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September 18, 2020, 04:49:00 PM
Merited by jbreher (1), infofront (1)

[...] the confirmed fact that bitcoin has been in a confirmed downtrend for ~4 years because people have realized it doesn't work well.

That comes off as incredible—actually, idiotic to people who actually use Bitcoin.  Have you ever actually tried it?

I don't think this is true science and math

I am in Bitcoin because, in my confirmed empirical experience, the banking system “doesn’t work well”.  Sending and receiving money with banks is painful.  They demand piles of dox, they make you jump through hoops, transactions randomly fail because some “anti-fraud” system got tripped, they set limits (!) on how much money you can send and receive (!!)...  WTF?  How does anybody actually use this!?

That is my experience with banks.  Yes, with real, legal info—freely offering them everything short of a cavity search.  If you have ever had (e.g.) a genuine transaction declined with a “please call our fraud department (and wait on hold like an obedient dog awaiting Master’s attention) ‘for your protection’ (LOL)” message, then it is your experience, too—just perhaps, you didn’t take full cognizance of it, because you are used to being abused.

People’s continued submission to banks is either a global pandemic of masochism, or perhaps mass Stockholm Syndrome.  The banking system is horrible.  People are psychologically conditioned to accept it by the very nature of its arbitrary and perpetually shifting rules—otherwise stated, a mindfuck.  If a free man from the distant past time-travelled to the present and had a pile of bank forms and “KYC” demands shoved in his face, his first response would be indignation:  “Just who do you think you are to demand this of me?”  Banks are degrading to their “customers”.

Bitcoin works.  No doxing, no asking permission, no jumping through hoops like a trained circus animal for the privilege of using your own money.  Your.  Own.  Money.  How many people even know what that means anymore?

I enjoy actually using Bitcoin.  Sending and receiving money is so easy!  With the push of a button, I transact with anybody, anywhere in the world!  Wheeee!  It’s so simple and downright fun that sometimes, I spam testnet/regtest transactions to myself for sheer pleasure.

This is proven science and math.

Go, Bitcoin, go!
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September 18, 2020, 04:51:53 PM

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September 18, 2020, 05:45:37 PM
Last edit: September 18, 2020, 06:02:20 PM by Torque
Merited by vapourminer (1), Biodom (1)

https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1306636046948610049

Quote
We acquired 21,454 BTC via 78,388 off-chain transactions, then secured it in cold storage with 18 on-chain transactions.  #Bitcoin scales just fine as a store of value.

TBH, I'm not sure why the Bitcoin community is high-fiving each other over this revelation.

I mean sure, it's exciting that a corporation has figured out how to take a large long position in BTC without rocking the boat. I'm sure that other corporations will begin to follow suit in the coming 3-6 months or within the year. The more institutional corporate hodlers, the better. This is overall good news.

But look, if the straight-laced corps with good intentions have figured out how do this, then so can the nefarious Wall Street whale traders as well as other country's seedy deep pocket whale traders (China, Russia, Germany, England, etc). These guys have hundreds of millions $$$, if not billions $$$, at their disposal too. And the difference is that they don't have to make any public announcements, or get their respective legal teams and corp shareholders involved to fight through a bunch of red tape and months of wrangling before they do it. They can and will take up such positions covertly. These types will be the first to dump all their btc at the top of the next bubble, for sure. This is not so great news.
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September 18, 2020, 05:53:38 PM

https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1306636046948610049

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We acquired 21,454 BTC via 78,388 off-chain transactions, then secured it in cold storage with 18 on-chain transactions.  #Bitcoin scales just fine as a store of value.

Fine, paid a lot of fees to miners (good boy)...honestly, I don't see a need to make 78K tx to get "just" 21K btc.
That's just being a bit severely paranoid. Why not buy some otc in chunks?

Did you not notice the “off-chain” part?  Ridiculous...

He paid fees for 18 on-chain transactions to miners.  Smart man.  He made ≈4355 Bitcoin transactions per tx that actually paid miner fees!

Off-chain transacting is the way of the future—the global public ledger is for secure synchronization of off-chain protocols.

Admittedly, I may be mixing issues and making too many assumptions there.  “Off-chain” could mean on a centralized exchange.  It could also mean Lightning Network, which is what I meant by “the way of the future”.  Or it could mean any number of other things.  (Just thinking aloud, perhaps he scooped up a bunch of WBTC, then redeemed it—LOL, that would also be “off-chain” in this context.)

Yes, what he calls off-chain looks like simple buying on exchange, and not even otc.
Pretty bizarre, actually:
https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1306940165160656897

nullius
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September 18, 2020, 05:55:24 PM

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September 18, 2020, 06:20:10 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1)

TBH, I'm not sure why the Bitcoin community is high-fiving each other over this revelation.

Left door:  Group psychology.
Right door:  Desire for bullish news, due to skin in the game.

What looks like probably a large long-term holding is good news.  0.2% of the total current BTC supply just moved from dumping bears and knife-juggling day-traders to cold storage.  Good.

Something else that does not seem to have been mentioned:  MicroStrategy is effectually dumping dollars.  Their big “cash reserve” is now much smaller; they are no longer HoDLing the dollar.  Hmmm...  As a dollar bear who has been warning people to dump dollars, I am thinking about what, of course, Saylor will not say even if (if) he is thinking it, too.

I mean sure, it's exciting that a corporation has figured out how to take a large long position in BTC without rocking the boat. I'm sure that other corporations will begin to follow suit in the coming 3-6 months or within the year. The more institutional corporate hodlers, the better. This is overall good news.

I myself tend to distrust institutional corporate holders; but there is nothing that I can do to stop them.

The more adoption by businesses (= the economically significant money in the productive economy, i.e. outside the extractive, destructive financial sector) and individuals (= attracts business), the better.

But look, if the straight-laced corps with good intentions have figured out how do this, then so can the nefarious Wall Street whale traders as well as other country's seedy deep pocket whale traders (China, Russia, Germany, England, etc). These guys have hundreds of millions $$$, if not billions $$$, at their disposal too. And the difference is that they don't have to make any public announcements, or get their respective legal teams and corp shareholders involved to fight through a bunch of red tape and months of wrangling before they do it. These types will be the first to dump all their btc at the top of the next bubble, for sure. This is not so great news.

That is similar to why I did not share the excitement about CME, etc. in late 2017.  And I was right...



Sometimes, simpler is better to avoid missing the point:

Quote
78,388 off-chain transactions
18 on-chain transactions.

Fine, paid a lot of fees to miners (good boy)...

He paid fees for 18 on-chain transactions to miners.  Smart man.

I should have avoided my speculation obiter dictum on what he meant by “off-chain”.
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September 18, 2020, 06:31:02 PM

https://twitter.com/michael_saylor/status/1306636046948610049

Quote
We acquired 21,454 BTC via 78,388 off-chain transactions, then secured it in cold storage with 18 on-chain transactions.  #Bitcoin scales just fine as a store of value.

TBH, I'm not sure why the Bitcoin community is high-fiving each other over this revelation.

I mean sure, it's exciting that a corporation has figured out how to take a large long position in BTC without rocking the boat. I'm sure that other corporations will begin to follow suit in the coming 3-6 months or within the year. The more institutional corporate hodlers, the better. This is overall good news.

But look, if the straight-laced corps with good intentions have figured out how do this, then so can the nefarious Wall Street whale traders as well as other country's seedy deep pocket whale traders (China, Russia, Germany, England, etc). These guys have hundreds of millions $$$, if not billions $$$, at their disposal too. And the difference is that they don't have to make any public announcements, or get their respective legal teams and corp shareholders involved to fight through a bunch of red tape and months of wrangling before they do it. They can and will take up such positions covertly. These types will be the first to dump all their btc at the top of the next bubble, for sure. This is not so great news.

Well i sort of see this as how you look at it.

Sure "bad actors" will take positions as well... after all Bitcoin is for all people.  Even people that hate it?  As it is said "Bitcoin is for enemies".

But I do NOT think MicroStrategy's position building had no effect on coins.  It might have had less than it would at market. But what it did was pull liquid coins away from people selling them.  There are 3X,XXX less of those now.

How could this be bad?

- Well selling pressure from miners could rise a little now assuming other whales are not in the background buying up OTC.

But that's just it.  If this keeps happening then market prices will suddenly start to lok good even WITH slippage, and you know what happens then.

I do not see how we can play "there goes the neighborhood" when bad guys start buying... That's what this was designed for. 
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