Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

Explanation

buddy lets get a good lift tonight. 25k would be good.

[1715203521]

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[1715203521]

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[1715203521]

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[TheJuice]

23 never felt so good.

[Gachapin]

For the time I have been involved in Bitcoin 5 conversions are actually not that many, but as I wrote before I'm not doing it actively...

And of course, in case sirazimuth doesn't talk about being in BTC to anyone irl, I could certainly understand that his count is 0.
But otherwise being in this space for 8 years without infecting anyone with the BTC-virus is a bit difficult to understand for me  ...especially since BTC is such a grand innovation...

Maybe my contrast was largely intended to suggest that getting someone into bitcoin might still cause questions regarding how committed they happen to be../.and yeah maybe we are quibbling.. and I know that I touched some folks in regards to my bitcoin discussions with them, and in some of those cases, we are not in very good touch, so I wonder how committed that they might be in regards to if they ever bought bitcoin or if they held onto bitcoin that they said that they bought.

I understand. For sure many newcoiners might not have the battle tested diamond hands that many WOers have.

When it comes to my surrounding I make it very clear that BTC is not a get-rich-quick vehicle.  So most of my "conversions" have a time horizon of many years, some even 10-15 years.  And I guess I couldn't expect more than that from a newbie.

Of course, I know that these kinds of people exist - but I find people to NOT want to commit to such long time horizons, even if they say that they are ready, willing and able to do it.  

When I got into bitcoin (in late 2013) I was thinking 1-2 years minimum... and so I was not even so strict upon my lil selfie as to really lock myself in, and frequently, since about 2017/2018, I tell people that the investment thesis is so much stronger now than it was in 2013, that any of us should be able to attempt to conceptually lock ourselves into a 4-10 year or longer investment time horizon right from the start of getting into bitcoin.  I am telling people that because I think that my own conviction has adjusted but also I think that the actual investment justifies the ability to get into it with a 4-10 year or longer investment time horizon.  

When I talk with people about this 4-10 year or longer investment timeline, they say the right words like "yes, that sounds right" but I really don't get the sense that anyone really wants to commit to anything that long.. and even 2 years is feeling like a long time for them.... of course, there can be circles in which people have more confidence and are able to show more enthusiasm.. but normies seem to have a lot of reluctancies to really buckle into a long term investment plan that includes bitcoin as one of the components.. whether that is a low allocation such as 1% of their total quasi-liquid investment portfolio or something more aggressive up to 25%.

Maybe my recent interactions are skewing my judgement a bit, because I know that between late 2015 and early 2019, I had quite a few more interactions with people who were more apparently inwardly motivated towards establishing and maintaining a longer term investment thesis in bitcoin, and some of those people were already somewhat predispositioned towards bitcoin by the time that I had spoken with them as compared with folks who seem to be getting a vast majority of information from me or from the contrasting misinformation that they seem to be getting off of mainstream media sources.

I didn't have any time horizon when I came to Bitcoin.  It was an experiment, not an investment.

Over the years I learned more about what I got into, and that helped me to get a longtime view.
So like you I developed a longterm view over time.  And I see many other newbs for whom that process is similar.

I remember the first (rather young) guy I "converted" complaining after a year that he'd "only" doubled his money and has not gotten rich yet.  After hearing such an ungrateful bs, I gave him a proper bat slapping.  And he's been a diamond hand holder for many years ever since.

Maybe my surrounding is just special (which I don't believe).  But I guess it's more about how I talk to people approaching me.  

I definitely make sure to tell them as much as I can about the extreme suffering most hodlers endure(d) during 80-90 % down turns.  And boy I have some emotional damage to share  

After having repeatedly presented this disclaimer absolutely unambiguously, only then I tell them about the possibilities Bitcoin gives you (technology-wise), all while reminding them constantly that everything could go to zero anytime (I know that is almost impossible, but I want them to take the full responsibility for their decision).

So in short my pitch is:
You will take a lot of shit and suffering. It might all be futile. There is no guaranty for any gain. Seeing the proper results will take many many years. Tech-wise BTC is a new paradigm for humanity. Your decision.
... and it seems to work


 

[JayJuanGee]

When I got into bitcoin (in late 2013) I was thinking 1-2 years minimum... and so I was not even so strict upon my lil selfie as to really lock myself in, and frequently, since about 2017/2018, I tell people that the investment thesis is so much stronger now than it was in 2013, that any of us should be able to attempt to conceptually lock ourselves into a 4-10 year or longer investment time horizon right from the start of getting into bitcoin.  I am telling people that because I think that my own conviction has adjusted but also I think that the actual investment justifies the ability to get into it with a 4-10 year or longer investment time horizon. 

When I talk with people about this 4-10 year or longer investment timeline, they say the right words like "yes, that sounds right" but I really don't get the sense that anyone really wants to commit to anything that long.. and even 2 years is feeling like a long time for them.... of course, there can be circles in which people have more confidence and are able to show more enthusiasm.. but normies seem to have a lot of reluctancies to really buckle into a long term investment plan that includes bitcoin as one of the components.. whether that is a low allocation such as 1% of their total quasi-liquid investment portfolio or something more aggressive up to 25%.

Maybe my recent interactions are skewing my judgement a bit, because I know that between late 2015 and early 2019, I had quite a few more interactions with people who were more apparently inwardly motivated towards establishing and maintaining a longer term investment thesis in bitcoin, and some of those people were already somewhat predispositioned towards bitcoin by the time that I had spoken with them as compared with folks who seem to be getting a vast majority of information from me or from the contrasting misinformation that they seem to be getting off of mainstream media sources.

Agreed in a more general way, the concept of along term investment is that long term definition has turned into a couple of years where I would go further and say it’s at minimum 10 yrs to 30 yrs. It almost lines up to a mortgage term and that’s how I see long term in any investment. In relation to btc and the first ones in is there any on chain data would could get a gauge on how much stuck to at least 10yrs holding.

Yes.. I don't disagree with you in terms of "the longer the better," yet a lot of times when we are talking with no coiners or precoiners who are scaredy cats, I think that one of the main messages should be "just get the fuck started," so when we get into discussions about how to think about the "investment" into BTC in terms of timeline, I both trying to suggest some optionality to the matter, but I don't want to scare them off with such a lofty minimum timeline that they are not even going to attempt to seriously consider the matter.. and it is quite likely that they already have some stupid-ass nonsense in their head that mixes up bitcoin with shitcoins, so they cannot even appreciate what the fuck bitcoin is.. which anyone with any kind of superficial clue to the concept of "crypto" or however they might have already heard about bitcoin cannot stop themselves from making those kinds of logical connections in their head to "get in" and then "get out".. they tend to be so focused on figuring out the "getting out" part that they hardly even are mentally capable of motivating themselves to even get in...

Don't get me wrong.  From the start of my getting into BTC, I had always attempted to have at least a couple of ways to get out any time that I would want to, even though I had not really expected that I would need to exercise my "getting out" option, I continuously have wanted to make sure that I preserve various ways that I am able to get out of bitcoin - if needed.  I try to suggest the same kinds of thinking to anyone who I suggest to get into bitcoin, and I suggest that they start out with one kind of specific location of getting BTC, and then work up their abilities to have at least a couple ways of being able to get out, if they need to.. and yeah, I have found it to have tended to be quite a lot of work to keep the "getting out" avenues available (even if those getting out avenues are not acted upon)... ..

Another thing is that people want to make things easy for themselves, and I cannot really blame them.. so if they are thinking about various ways to get started, then they might start out by setting up some kind of an account that allows them to get in and out of bitcoin and allows them to transfer out for self-custody (whether they exercise that option, too), and then maybe they just start to get worried about how much money they would feel comfortable to put in, and then if they have to take the additional step to figure out self-custody, then that is more work.. So, each of us who have been in bitcoin for a while realizes, that it takes a bit of time investment to take each of these steps in terms of setting up accounts and setting up various wallets and then making sure that we are sufficiently secure and then also making sure that we do not end up rug-pulling ourselves in the event that we do not spend enough time to set something up properly. 

By the way, I have some funds that recently I had transferred to a new wallet, and my back up system for that is incomplete and far from secure because the back up is stored in the same place as the primary.. so it makes me worried to have such a system, and it is something that I keep telling myself that I am going to finish the set-up and then I am going to move the back ups to more than one location.. similar to my other set ups, so sometimes we know that we have some security holes or even some we are fucked if our house burns down holes because we have failed to geographically separate our primary and our back up... and yeah if it is valued at $100 or $200 then it might not be a BIG deal if we ended up losing it, but if starts to become potentially life-changing amounts, such as 0.21 BTC or even 3x that amount, then we might start to think.. "holy fuck, that's a lot of money/value in one spot that is not sufficiently backed up."

10 merit for ivomm

But should also DE-merit for bear prices in the good content….

What you talkin bout Willis?

Your choice of course, and surely it is likely that some guys and gal will likely get worried about receiving a mindrust treatment when they share too much that is contrary to what many of us consider to be best practices.  As you likely realize, I prefer to speak in terms of hypotheticals, yet of course, some of my assertions describe how great life is going and blah blah blah, so maybe a little more complaining might be in order? even for yours truly?

No mindrusting here
But the powder was too damp
I made no killing
#haiku

We already know a famous saying from a famous person, I cannot remember who "slow and steady wins the race.".... so in that regard, there is no needs to make no killins... so in that regard.. golly gee whiz Wally**, we had nearly 7 months of bargain prices.. and I am not even saying that the bargain prices are over, yet....   



**now I know from where comes the name - Eddie.   
 

[Hueristic]

10 merit for ivomm

But should also DE-merit for bear prices in the good content….

What you talkin bout Willis?

I guess the serious investors won't ignore this obvious fact. If an asset during his bear cycle is outperforming the other assets by a lot, it is a no-brainer where they should put some money. So, even with the lack of good news and with a low volume BTC could stabilize around 30K this year and 40K next year.

Its the reason I didn't merit that post.

[Tipeform$]

Bitcoin price up 23k....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022:

1. 7 MA crossing 25 MA.
2. Bitcoin broke the resistance trendline.
3. End of Bear Market, bottom is in.

pls don't jinx it 

oh really?? More time to buy at cheap if I jinxed it. 😂

Hahahaha

Anyone who knows anything about dee cornz still voting (hoping/praying) for downity?

Of course, we never completely purge ourselves from the fence sitters, the low coiners and/or those who failed/refused to sufficiently/adequately stack up and pee pare their lil selfies for Uppity in the past 7 months or so.

For that reason, it surely would be lovely to see my lil precious go into "punishment mode" .. .hahahaha we've seen that kind of thing happen several times in previous years, and surely it is not anything that can be relied upon, but it surely tends to be joyous during those sometimes when it has happened to have happened... and I cannot even see right now as being a bad "set-up" to go down up such a path... not even saying that I give very many shits if I happen to get some extra bonus pleasures during such events when they happen and they really do not seem to be outside of the cards for anyone who happens to know anything bout cornz.

#Bitcoin is the best performing asset in the world this year, according to latest data by Goldman Sachs

https://twitter.com/home?utm_source=homescreen&utm_medium=shortcut
I guess the serious investors won't ignore this obvious fact. If an asset during his bear cycle is outperforming the other assets by a lot, it is a no-brainer where they should put some money. So, even with the lack of good news and with a low volume BTC could stabilize around 30K this year and 40K next year.

Yes, BTC is the best performing asset to hold (that's why I'm 98% in), but isn't this comparison is a bit cherry picked ?  We are only 3 weeks into the year and just had a mini bullrun out of the lows in this time frame...

Look this could simply be a July 2019 move. Which means lots of down time for a while.

Huh? Do you even understand what happened or where we were at in July 2019?  By the time we got to July 2019, 3.5x BTC price rise had just taken place over a 3 month period.  I saw July 2019, and this ain't no July 2019... even if our current BTC price were to end up correcting back down to $16k-ish from here.

Or maybe it is simply going back to a nice level for mining.

Or maybe you are allowing dreams to get in the way of your BTC price dynamics analysis?

A big farm with 5 cent power and 25 watt gear.  And debt along with overhead of building workers maintenance  was in serious trouble a while back.

100 th made 6 usd  a day. burns   80kwatts or 4 usd at five cent power.  nets 2 dollar a unit but then add in building cost, loans ,salaries ,gear maintenance they were under water.

they kind of needed 4 cent power or no loans.

same 5 cent power setup today makes 7.87 a day burns 4 dollars  nets 3.87 per unit  before all other costs.

10000 units is 38,700 a day vs 20,000 a day.

10000 units could have cost 60 million or maybe as low as 15million

38,700 a day = 14,125,500 a year. vs 7,300,000 a year.

Yeah, but who cares?  You think that mining costs drive the price dynamics of my lil precious?

23 never felt so good.

Yep.. we keep revisiting here.. so it's gotta make a person wonder.

10 merit for ivomm

But should also DE-merit for bear prices in the good content….

What you talkin bout Willis?

I guess the serious investors won't ignore this obvious fact. If an asset during his bear cycle is outperforming the other assets by a lot, it is a no-brainer where they should put some money. So, even with the lack of good news and with a low volume BTC could stabilize around 30K this year and 40K next year.

Its the reason I didn't merit that post.

Hahahaha .. fair enough.. .. I had to go back and merit dee doodz for such subtle wittenings.

And by the way.. yeah, I might have clicked my "send" merit button too soon too.. especially when thinking about "stable BTC" prices, as if that were an actual thing that any of us should consider amongst any kind of "meaningful" high level of probability that it is even worth mentioning... yeah... sure, "stable" prices coudl end up happening, but largely seems like an outlier event that is hardly worth mentioning it.. unless we are somehow obsessed with focusing our mental energies on "fringe" cases and then treating them as if they were anywhere even close to 50 or greater odds of actually taking place.

[Biodom]

It's funny, but it seems that I can report that bitcoin changed my mentality.
I used to zoom in and out of investments and 1-2 years was "long term" for me (especially since after 12mo it is long term tax treatment in US).
Lo and behold, now that I used to hodl bitcoin, I also tend to do the same with stonks, sometimes even against my best judgment.
Not sure how to deal with it..maybe by randomly selling small amounts of weak performers, haha.

TL;DR bitcoin hodling changes you

[philipma1957]

Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022:

1. 7 MA crossing 25 MA.
2. Bitcoin broke the resistance trendline.
3. End of Bear Market, bottom is in.

pls don't jinx it 

oh really?? More time to buy at cheap if I jinxed it. 😂

Hahahaha

Anyone who knows anything about dee cornz still voting (hoping/praying) for downity?

Of course, we never completely purge ourselves from the fence sitters, the low coiners and/or those who failed/refused to sufficiently/adequately stack up and pee pare their lil selfies for Uppity in the past 7 months or so.

For that reason, it surely would be lovely to see my lil precious go into "punishment mode" .. .hahahaha we've seen that kind of thing happen several times in previous years, and surely it is not anything that can be relied upon, but it surely tends to be joyous during those sometimes when it has happened to have happened... and I cannot even see right now as being a bad "set-up" to go down up such a path... not even saying that I give very many shits if I happen to get some extra bonus pleasures during such events when they happen and they really do not seem to be outside of the cards for anyone who happens to know anything bout cornz.

#Bitcoin is the best performing asset in the world this year, according to latest data by Goldman Sachs

https://twitter.com/home?utm_source=homescreen&utm_medium=shortcut
I guess the serious investors won't ignore this obvious fact. If an asset during his bear cycle is outperforming the other assets by a lot, it is a no-brainer where they should put some money. So, even with the lack of good news and with a low volume BTC could stabilize around 30K this year and 40K next year.

Yes, BTC is the best performing asset to hold (that's why I'm 98% in), but isn't this comparison is a bit cherry picked ?  We are only 3 weeks into the year and just had a mini bullrun out of the lows in this time frame...

Look this could simply be a July 2019 move. Which means lots of down time for a while.

Huh? Do you even understand what happened or where we were at in July 2019?  By the time we got to July 2019, 3.5x BTC price rise had just taken place over a 3 month period.  I saw July 2019, and this ain't no July 2019... even if our current BTC price were to end up correcting back down to $16k-ish from here.

Or maybe it is simply going back to a nice level for mining.

Or maybe you are allowing dreams to get in the way of your BTC price dynamics analysis?

A big farm with 5 cent power and 25 watt gear.  And debt along with overhead of building workers maintenance  was in serious trouble a while back.

100 th made 6 usd  a day. burns   80kwatts or 4 usd at five cent power.  nets 2 dollar a unit but then add in building cost, loans ,salaries ,gear maintenance they were under water.

they kind of needed 4 cent power or no loans.

same 5 cent power setup today makes 7.87 a day burns 4 dollars  nets 3.87 per unit  before all other costs.

10000 units is 38,700 a day vs 20,000 a day.

10000 units could have cost 60 million or maybe as low as 15million

38,700 a day = 14,125,500 a year. vs 7,300,000 a year.

Yeah, but who cares?  You think that mining costs drive the price dynamics of my lil precious?

23 never felt so good.

Yep.. we keep revisiting here.. so it's gotta make a person wonder.

10 merit for ivomm

But should also DE-merit for bear prices in the good content….

What you talkin bout Willis?

I guess the serious investors won't ignore this obvious fact. If an asset during his bear cycle is outperforming the other assets by a lot, it is a no-brainer where they should put some money. So, even with the lack of good news and with a low volume BTC could stabilize around 30K this year and 40K next year.

Its the reason I didn't merit that post.

Hahahaha .. fair enough.. .. I had to go back and merit dee doodz for such subtle wittenings.

And by the way.. yeah, I might have clicked my "send" merit button too soon too.. especially when thinking about "stable BTC" prices, as if that were an actual thing that any of us should consider amongst any kind of "meaningful" high level of probability that it is even worth mentioning... yeah... sure, "stable" prices coudl end up happening, but largely seems like an outlier event that is hardly worth mentioning it.. unless we are somehow obsessed with focusing our mental energies on "fringe" cases and then treating them as if they were anywhere even close to 50 or greater odds of actually taking place.

JJG

mining sets the floor price.

I have followed for years and bottoms come in just about right on spot to :

5-6 cent power
and top of the line gear.

basically we hit that in november .

I 100% agree that mining does not set the top of the bull run.

But time and time again mining is what set the foundation level for the bottom.

please note flash crashes are excluded as the have been followed by v style recovery.

[Biodom]

Hahahaha .. fair enough.. .. I had to go back and merit dee doodz for such subtle wittenings.

And by the way.. yeah, I might have clicked my "send" merit button too soon too.. especially when thinking about "stable BTC" prices, as if that were an actual thing that any of us should consider amongst any kind of "meaningful" high level of probability that it is even worth mentioning... yeah... sure, "stable" prices coudl end up happening, but largely seems like an outlier event that is hardly worth mentioning it.. unless we are somehow obsessed with focusing our mental energies on "fringe" cases and then treating them as if they were anywhere even close to 50 or greater odds of actually taking place.

<a big snip>

JJG

mining sets the floor price.

I have followed for years and bottoms come in just about right on spot to :

5-6 cent power
and top of the line gear.

basically we hit that in november .

I 100% agree that mining does not set the top of the bull run.

But time and time again mining is what set the foundation level for the bottom.

please note flash crashes are excluded as the have been followed by v style recovery.

1. Approximately..and typically one month or month and a half of declining difficulty sets the bottom (during usual markets, not a calamity).
2. I still hold readily deploy-able funds to buy the flash crash or a sudden dip...it is much more my style vs DCAing, but to each their own.

[philipma1957]

<a big snip>

JJG

mining sets the floor price.

I have followed for years and bottoms come in just about right on spot to :

5-6 cent power
and top of the line gear.

basically we hit that in november .

I 100% agree that mining does not set the top of the bull run.

But time and time again mining is what set the foundation level for the bottom.

please note flash crashes are excluded as the have been followed by v style recovery.

1. Approximately..and typically one month or month and a half of declining difficulty sets the bottom (during usual markets, not a calamity).
2. I still hold readily deploy-able funds to buy the flash crash or a sudden dip...it is much more my style vs DCAing, but to each their own.

I have done difficulty posts for years in the mining section as I use your ideas and some others to help determine bottoms for BTC.

So we apparently left the bottom but we could test it again which is why continued investment in mining gear and long term growth of it is very important to have rising btc foundation setttings.

[Gachapin]

Swift Ends Cryptocurrency Access to Global Marketplace
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/cryptocurrency/swift-ends-cryptocurrency-access-to-global-marketplace/


For real?  Only 100k+ transactions to exchanges are allowed from 1st Feb. ??

No more Bitcoin for the small guy?

[philipma1957]

Swift Ends Cryptocurrency Access to Global Marketplace
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/cryptocurrency/swift-ends-cryptocurrency-access-to-global-marketplace/


For real?  Only 100k+ transactions to exchanges are allowed from 1st Feb. ??

No more Bitcoin for the small guy?

Good for miners. Interesting development.

Next step is banning oil and coal to mine.

So a miner with 400kwatts of solar is still safe I wonder who that could be?

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I didn't have any time horizon when I came to Bitcoin.  It was an experiment, not an investment.

Well?  Maybe you were traumatized by your entry date?  If we were to use your forum registration date to approximate your entry into bitcoin date, then for sure those were dramatic times... the day before the hardfork...   I could appreciate how anyone newly coming into bitcoin might have some pause at that particular time... like? What the fuck is going on?  And some of the exchanges were even saying that they were not going to allow transactions for several hours around the fork time because they were not sure what was going to happen.. which all makes sense from an exchange perspective and surely could inpire uncertainties from anyone freshly coming into bitcoin, even if we do not account for your other particulars.

Over the years I learned more about what I got into, and that helped me to get a longtime view.
So like you I developed a longterm view over time.  And I see many other newbs for whom that process is similar.

Even within the minority group of folks who at least somewhat favorably disposed or inclined to give it a chance (and look into it), there can be a variety of paths, including variations in regards to the extent that any of us might believe going down the shitcoin path might be part of our initial investigation (and/or due diligence) journey.

I remember the first (rather young) guy I "converted" complaining after a year that he'd "only" doubled his money and has not gotten rich yet.  After hearing such an ungrateful bs, I gave him a proper bat slapping.  And he's been a diamond hand holder for many years ever since.

Wow.. you have influences over people.    I remember quite a few fairly powerful arguments in 2017-ish in this forum and some other places that I was posting in regards to shitcoiners who were pumping their bullshit by asserting that their coin had gone up 2x or 3x or even 4x as much as BTC, and grandpa coin BTC had little to no UPpity potential because it had already matured and had been on the market for 7 years or more.. so no pumpamentals.. so in that regard, I am like ongoingly arguing to say things like :"holy fucking shit, we have BTC going from $250 to $1k in a year (that's 4x), and then we ended up at $2,500 and that is 10x, and then you know that the price kept going up to $19,666 (which is 78x), and I am supposed to be disappointed because at various points in that journey some shitcoin was going up faster than BTC?  Those were ridiculous ways to try to propagandize various shitcoins and to proclaim that bitcoin was inferior blah blah blah..  

Maybe my surrounding is just special (which I don't believe).  But I guess it's more about how I talk to people approaching me.  

Of course, there can be various demographic matters in which can cause you to have some different kinds of audiences, and maybe even different assessments in regards to your conversion success rate.

I definitely make sure to tell them as much as I can about the extreme suffering most hodlers endure(d) during 80-90 % down turns.  And boy I have some emotional damage to share  

For sure, I don't believe in ONLY sharing upside... even though it is o.k to talk about both, and surely the world-experiences of people can sometimes affect how any of us might talk with someone about bitcoin, including attempting to figure out what they already know or believe.

After having repeatedly presented this disclaimer absolutely unambiguously, only then I tell them about the possibilities Bitcoin gives you (technology-wise), all while reminding them constantly that everything could go to zero anytime (I know that is almost impossible, but I want them to take the full responsibility for their decision).

So in short my pitch is:
You will take a lot of shit and suffering. It might all be futile. There is no guaranty for any gain. Seeing the proper results will take many many years. Tech-wise BTC is a new paradigm for humanity. Your decision.
... and it seems to work

Yeah.. it seems that we might cover some similar materials, from an informational sense.

[edited out]

JJG
mining sets the floor price.

I have followed for years and bottoms come in just about right on spot to :

5-6 cent power
and top of the line gear.

basically we hit that in november .

I 100% agree that mining does not set the top of the bull run.

But time and time again mining is what set the foundation level for the bottom.

please note flash crashes are excluded as the have been followed by v style recovery.

Yeah.. believe what you like.  I already mentioned several times that I think that those folks who are trying to figure out bitcoin price moves based on hash are like the cave dwellers looking at shadows.. so it is not like you are going to convince me that there are needs to reconsider the power of the difficulties and hash costs in terms of BTC's price direction blah blah blah... even if you now try to Monday morning quarter back and make some adjustments to theorize about the bottom may or may not be in blah blah blah.

Yes.. .cost of hash is one factor that affects BTC price... but it is a pretty teenie tiney weenie ass factor.. so don't miss the forest for the trees while you are analyzing those various shadows (including wondering what Jay Powell might gonna say?) to strive to find correlations and then subsequently find some kind of way of asserting causation from your gobble-dee-gook lackings.. ..

In udder wurds.. you do you... and you are likely going to get push back.. but whatever that's your choice if you want to keep making those kinds of largely non-substantiated claims.. then go ahead.... another analogy is the dog tail one.. what wags the tail/dog?  Do you need a hint..?  [insert cat]  

I have done difficulty posts for years in the mining section as I use your ideas and some others to help determine bottoms for BTC.

Good for uie pooie..

merely because no one gave you push back does not mean that your proclamations about bitcoin price following hash mean shit.... Lot's of folks have similar nonsense theories about BTC price dynamics, and they tend to be full of shit if they are suggesting that price follows hash..

So we apparently left the bottom but we could test it again which is why continued investment in mining gear and long term growth of it is very important to have rising btc foundation setttings.

Good luck with that.

It might work, and it might not.  It appears quite inadequate and incomplete even if you believe it a lot.

Swift Ends Cryptocurrency Access to Global Marketplace
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/cryptocurrency/swift-ends-cryptocurrency-access-to-global-marketplace/

For real?  Only 100k+ transactions to exchanges are allowed from 1st Feb. ??

No more Bitcoin for the small guy?

Good for miners. Interesting development.

Next step is banning oil and coal to mine.

So a miner with 400kwatts of solar is still safe I wonder who that could be?

Why would it be good for miners?   You think that striving to cut off small players from the banking/bitcoin system is good for miners?  That's ridiculous.

By the way, this whole thing (attempt at a world-wide attack) must have been contrived at the Davos WEF (World Economic Forum) banking conference .. .. and so will underground be the next way forward for the normies in cryptos (and bitcoin)?  Will more peer to peer develop?  Will other other on-off ramps be developed and come available for normie access?  Are they ONLY going to be restricting "on-ramps" but not "off-ramps", so far?

[ChartBuddy]

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[Gachapin]

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I didn't have any time horizon when I came to Bitcoin.  It was an experiment, not an investment.

Well?  Maybe you were traumatized by your entry date?  If we were to use your forum registration date to approximate your entry into bitcoin date, then for sure those were dramatic times... the day before the hardfork...   I could appreciate how anyone newly coming into bitcoin might have some pause at that particular time... like? What the fuck is going on?  And some of the exchanges were even saying that they were not going to allow transactions for several hours around the fork time because they were not sure what was going to happen.. which all makes sense from an exchange perspective and surely could inpire uncertainties from anyone freshly coming into bitcoin, even if we do not account for your other particulars.

Interesting that you mention this.  Actually, I only registered to this forum to write my opinion on the fork, in 2017.
....guess who was the guy posting right after me.. you  

Before that I was just reading the WO, for years.
But in 2017 the times were crazy, and for the first time I felt the urge to share my opinion fwiw.

Over the years I learned more about what I got into, and that helped me to get a longtime view.
So like you I developed a longterm view over time.  And I see many other newbs for whom that process is similar.

Even within the minority group of folks who at least somewhat favorably disposed or inclined to give it a chance (and look into it), there can be a variety of paths, including variations in regards to the extent that any of us might believe going down the shitcoin path might be part of our initial investigation (and/or due diligence) journey.

I'm doing my best to expose the shittiness of shitcoins to newbs I talk to, that's for sure.

I remember the first (rather young) guy I "converted" complaining after a year that he'd "only" doubled his money and has not gotten rich yet.  After hearing such an ungrateful bs, I gave him a proper bat slapping.  And he's been a diamond hand holder for many years ever since.

Wow.. you have influences over people.    I remember quite a few fairly powerful arguments in 2017-ish in this forum and some other places that I was posting in regards to shitcoiners who were pumping their bullshit by asserting that their coin had gone up 2x or 3x or even 4x as much as BTC, and grandpa coin BTC had little to no UPpity potential because it had already matured and had been on the market for 7 years or more.. so no pumpamentals.. so in that regard, I am like ongoingly arguing to say things like :"holy fucking shit, we have BTC going from $250 to $1k in a year (that's 4x), and then we ended up at $2,500 and that is 10x, and then you know that the price kept going up to $19,666 (which is 78x), and I am supposed to be disappointed because at various points in that journey some shitcoin was going up faster than BTC?  Those were ridiculous ways to try to propagandize various shitcoins and to proclaim that bitcoin was inferior blah blah blah..  

Everyone has influence over others.  Most of the time people sense if they are wrong and they just need somebody who tells it to their face (me included).
And sure, any new "get-rich-quick" story is probably the most effective to lure in and fleece newbs.  

Maybe my surrounding is just special (which I don't believe).  But I guess it's more about how I talk to people approaching me.  

Of course, there can be various demographic matters in which can cause you to have some different kinds of audiences, and maybe even different assessments in regards to your conversion success rate.

demographic goes from age 29 to 65, male and female(only one though), from low-wager to $millionaire.
So for 5-6 people quite the spectrum.

I definitely make sure to tell them as much as I can about the extreme suffering most hodlers endure(d) during 80-90 % down turns.  And boy I have some emotional damage to share  

For sure, I don't believe in ONLY sharing upside... even though it is o.k to talk about both, and surely the world-experiences of people can sometimes affect how any of us might talk with someone about bitcoin, including attempting to figure out what they already know or believe.

many of them have already heard the stupid talking points from media and shitcoiners.  So I try to be a reasonable voice the best I can.
And I guess they feel that I don't wanna sell them anything. ...owning BTC is in one's self interest

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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