Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[eXPHorizon]

[1701272008]

1701272008

[1701272008]

1701272008

[1701272008]

1701272008

[1701272008]

1701272008

[1701272008]

1701272008

[1701272008]

1701272008

[Gachapin]

just a thought:
there is a possibility that the next halving bullrun arrives later than usual.  almost everyone seems to expect a normally scheduled bullrun... and that alone should actually be enough of a reason for it not to happen.  On top of that we might face some medium-term price pressure from the US Gov. sitting on 200k BTC, and from some of the 140k Gox coins...

The 2021 bull market was expected after the halving and it did arrive. Halving was in May and in November we were already at a new ATH.

the point for me is when after the halving.
Last time it started actually earlier than expected (not around eoy like usual).

Are you saying that people weren't expecting a pump in 2020 after halving?

I'm saying that with every cycle it gets more unlikely that the bullrun follows the expected schedule with evermore people expecting said schedule.
You could already see that the last bullrun started a bit earlier, and that it had an almost double top. quite different from what most people expected.

So I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get what most people expect this time. But what do I know...

Interesting...

So this is what I wrote in another thread

Have you noticed that there are 2 main types of analysts?
Type 1: The pattern is repeating.
These guys look for something in the past and think it's going to happen again. Some examples of their thinking:
Last time the bitcoin bear market took 400 days, so we're going to be in a bear market for at least that long.
In the last bull market bitcoin made 20x the former ATH so this time it's gong to do the same.
Last time bitcoin lost 75% in the bear market so this time it will also do it.

Type 2: This time is different.
These guys contradict type 1 analysts by looking for things that can mess up their predictions.
But this time we're in a recession.
But this time we're also in a stock bear market.
But there's a war in Ukraine.
But this time bitcoin can't go 20x because there's too many altcoins that take away from the total market cap.
In the last bear market there was no FTX.

A few minutes later I go through the thread and find exactly what I was thinking about. The "this time it's going to be different" prediction.

I have to disappoint you.  That wasn't my prediction you found there.
 
When I described my statement with "just a thought" and "there is a possibility", I hoped it to be obvious that it's not a prediction.  I was merely brainstorming some thoughts.

So you support the theory that we can't all be rich, so if there's a large enough group thinking that bitcoin will go up, it will go down, so that the majority can be squashed and the one that swims against the current can win. I could give you a number of cases in the history of bitcoin where this wasn't the case. For instance, after falling 60-40k, at least half of the traders felt like this couldn't be the end and more likely a correction before another move up, and it was. If you bought at 30k, or held through the correction, there was a new ATH just around the corner. It wasn't the high most of us expected, but it was a new high.

I hope I don't misunderstand you.  But you will always find examples where the expectations of the majority came true.  But that's not the common situation in markets.  Otherwise John Doe would just follow the herd and be rich, which obviously is not the case.

Everyone getting rich might be a rather childish idea, but Bitcoin is probably the best shot to achieve that.
Probably by hodling. Certainly not by timing market movements.

This looks to me like a final attempt to put a pressure on the price and capitulate on the mood.

[philipma1957]

Here is some good fud.


https://www.yahoo.com/gma/italy-government-convenes-talks-amid-100155034.html


I am so lucky to be off pasta for life. (due to Diabetes)


best part of the article is  below:  

"...The price of pasta rose for two consecutive months, by 17.5% in March followed by a 16.5% rise in April – when compared to the same periods a year earlier, according to the Italian National Institute of Statistics.

This is despite the falling price of durum wheat, which has dropped by 30%, according to officials. ..."


That is fucked up.




BTW my Jumbo eggs have $2.12 a dozen from a high of $6.99

[JayJuanGee]

just a thought:
there is a possibility that the next halving bullrun arrives later than usual.  almost everyone seems to expect a normally scheduled bullrun... and that alone should actually be enough of a reason for it not to happen.  On top of that we might face some medium-term price pressure from the US Gov. sitting on 200k BTC, and from some of the 140k Gox coins...

Yes.. a lots of things "could happen."

I am not very convinced about your prognostication... if that's how we might label your above Nostradamus wannabe attempt?

My statement was clearly preceded by the remarks "just a thought" and "there is a possibility".  Why would you wanna label that as a Nostradamus prognostication, when it's clearly not a prediction?

What else is there to do during "times like these?"  

These are the interwebs....

"We" are not supposed to be getting along too much.


Accordingly, if you are not going to pick a fight, then I will.

 


 

So I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get what most people expect this time. But what do I know...

Probably not very much.

 
That was a lay-up, no?

we could have that in common when it comes to knowing the future

Yous got's ur lil selfie a decently good point there.

200 weekly MA defended for now, the bleeding has stopped for the moment. Feels like we’re on a knife edge, will the US default or will the debt limit be lifted?

The halving is less than a year away but we are going to get volatility before it I think.

Pepper your angus.

Halving Event is one of the most awaited events for Bitcoiners but seems like these days something is going in a wrong mode in the Bitcoin Discussion there maximum of comments and topics referring to some sort of Issue Ordinals and they are even linking it with fundamental destruction of ideas (In Bitcoin). What I picked up is this is going to be a controversial topic again and be going to be one of the most Hot trend named Ordinals VS BTC

https://ibb.co/0r5B5gn

Oh?


So this time "we" are going to die for sure?


You must be new here.

This here supposed battle regarding ordinals/inscriptions/et al is no worse than any previous battles in which there would not be asymmetric information in regards towards bitcoin's future, unless dumbasses were thinking that bitcoin is dead at every turn of events (spike in onchain transaction fees, clogging of the blockchain..  need for an emergency "blocksize increase" blah blah blah).





Accordingly, good luck if you are failing/refusing to pee pare ur lil selfie for UPpity.....


aka HFSP.


**By the way, just like always, there is plenty of ongoingly positive information out there in the world about bitcoin that shows that the investment thesis for my lil precious is not any getting weaker with the passage of time.. and in fact is more likely continuing to get stronger.. for those who are ready, willing and/or able to actually sort the wheat from the chaff.

200 weekly MA defended for now, the bleeding has stopped for the moment. Feels like we’re on a knife edge, will the US default or will the debt limit be lifted?

The halving is less than a year away but we are going to get volatility before it I think.

Pepper your angus.

I like a bit of salt and rosemary on my Angus.

But if the US defaults it will be a first in history.

Depends upon the definition of "default."

For sure uie pooie no doesn't need to worry..



UR Ibonds are "safu."

Well If you brought BTC in Feb Mar Apr 2021 you are pretty cut up.

price was 39k to 67k to 49k for those months

Yes.. "we" should follow ur strategy, no?

Good thing that you (Philip) sold those BTC that you were buying around that early 2021 time for a little below $20k in mid-to-late 2022, and bought Ibonds in the $16k-ish territory in around late 2022 (including recommending that other forum members do the same as you).

[HI-TEC99]

...

BTW my Jumbo eggs have $2.12 a dozen from a high of $6.99

[sirazimuth]

ftfy

(he might have bought them from me,  )

[JayJuanGee]

When I described my statement with "just a thought" and "there is a possibility", I hoped it to be obvious that it's not a prediction.  I was merely brainstorming some thoughts.

That's what she said.

So you support the theory that we can't all be rich, so if there's a large enough group thinking that bitcoin will go up, it will go down, so that the majority can be squashed and the one that swims against the current can win. I could give you a number of cases in the history of bitcoin where this wasn't the case. For instance, after falling 60-40k, at least half of the traders felt like this couldn't be the end and more likely a correction before another move up, and it was. If you bought at 30k, or held through the correction, there was a new ATH just around the corner. It wasn't the high most of us expected, but it was a new high.

I hope I don't misunderstand you.  But you will always find examples where the expectations of the majority came true.  But that's not the common situation in markets.  Otherwise John Doe would just follow the herd and be rich, which obviously is not the case.

Everyone getting rich might be a rather a childish idea, but Bitcoin is probably the best shot to achieve that.
Probably by hodling. Certainly not by timing market movements.

For sure some ongoing consistency and persistency is likely needed in regards to dee cornz.. which largely would involve either ongoing BTC accumulation.. or buying (could be a kind of lump sum approach?) and waiting for a long enough period of time... and even though there are no guarantees, the asymmetric bet regarding the UPside likelihood of bitcoin's price dynamics remains quite strong, if not amongst the strongest of investment asset classes that is currently and widely available to most of the world's population... even though there are likely quite a few people who do not actually realize what bitcoin is (so that would be the asymmetric informational component of it).

[sirazimuth]

True Bitcoin community #Few.

The twin bro...

GO BITCOIN

[Biodom]

Last week was too much in the meat space for me...it's nice to finally relax a bit, I hope.

For now, I am ignoring bitcoin's ups and downs, but have some "dry powder", which I am eager to deploy at some point between now and the halving (occurring in April 2024, most likely).

Asked AI to make a trip itinerary...it derped...did not "know" when particular museums are closed and whatnot, which IS publicly available data.
Soooo...much improvement is still needed, but, otherwise, the rest of the itinerary was OK.
I will be using more of it to do some mundane (or best half-prompted tasks) in the future.

I give 10% to the probability of something weird happening in finances in the next 2-3wk, albeit the default probability is only 1% last time i checked.
Higher odds from me because D's and R's are not really talking much and TS is a bit old and not very 'dynamic' to say the least.

Eggs being $2.12 vs  above $6...wow. A major 'deflation'  .
I wonder if housing would do the same? Currently, people are just not lowering the prices and hope for the best.
In the area somewhere close a couple of houses sit at unrealistic prices almost 6 mo already.

[Negotiation]

Yes.. "we" should follow ur strategy, no?

this is reality.

[nutildah]

Fake Chi-rubber plant
Green plastic watering can
And it wears him out

[Sim_card]

Yes.. "we" should follow ur strategy, no?

this is reality.

This is how it will end up for those that invested in shitcoins and those who take bitcoin to be a scam and save all their money in traditional banks
 

[Torque]

OT:

I love how most of the major news outlet websites subtly enlarged both their font sizes as well as the white space around their article headlines and photos (so that they can post less articles per day and still fill up the screen).

As if some of us viewing on the PC wouldn't notice (news flash: I did). I guess phone-only viewers wouldn't really notice.

Just more proof that the main stream media industry is slowly dying and losing money along with everything else.

Pretty soon most of those news articles won't even be written by a real human anymore.

[somac.]

I don't know if anyone has seen the fees recently but they are back down to low double digits. Why? Because high fees are not currently sustainable, too small a market. No intervention is required on the fee front for probably decades, if ever, the free market will sort it via good old supply and demand. The solution to high fees is high fees.

[goldkingcoiner]

I don't know if anyone has seen the fees recently but they are back down to low double digits. Why? Because high fees are not currently sustainable, too small a market. No intervention is required on the fee front for probably decades, if ever, the free market will sort it via good old supply and demand. The solution to high fees is high fees.

Its back to around 5 bucks. Price is going to shoot up once the normies realize the panic is over.

[hisslyness]

very quiet around here without chatbuddy! Peeps going elsewhere for the hourly pricing?

[AlcoHoDL]

Only one haiku?
Wall Observer lost its way?
It's fucking Sunday!

#keepingthefaith

[hisslyness]

Silence, buddy gone!
Bitcoin price posting no more...
Peeps seek new sources?

[d_eddie]

Rainy Mother's Day
Quality time with mommy
While there is still time




#haiku

[xhomerx10]

Yes.. "we" should follow ur strategy, no?

this is reality.

*xhomerx10 looks at his clothes and surroundings

 Huh.  Guess I'm doing it wrong.