Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jbreher]

...chained orders...

I have been experimenting with JJG (and jbrher)s chained order strategy on the BTC/ETH pair.

Perhaps I am being dense...but I am just not getting it.

It goes down, I am buying ETH every 0.001, ok fine, then it goes back up and I am selling ETH at the exact same prices...it looks like a total wash to me.

Did I miss something in the explanation?

You remove the "other side" order at the point you just filled, otherwise they will cancel out for sure.
Example: you have orders each 500$.
Sell at 8500 on the way up, but remove "buy at 8500 on the way down". Next you'll buy will be at $8000.
Same for the opposite direction, buy at $8000 on the way down, remove "sell at $8000 on the way up".

That's why you have a gap between your top buy and your bottom sell that is 2x your base interval. The gap is where the profit is made.

Admittedly, in my most comprehensive explanation, I explicitly left the reason for such 'as an exercise for the reader'. Perhaps I should have stated it.

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[starmman]

Trading is very slow for me over the last 24 hours or so - I'm filling only a couple of orders an hour - usually its 20-30 orders and hour.

Where is all the action at?

you must be a bot

A starbot

Or maybe I just picked the wrong coins to trade in this month. Everything seems pretty slow to me - I should probably reduce my margins.

[jbreher]

You can tweak the amounts, and/or you can tweak the gaps (leaving two rather than one, for example).
You can realign the whole ladder by a few dollar points (under the $500 step size, in the example I made).

But right, if you don't do that, that's the way I understand it too - you harvest your latest top when you reach a bottom, and vice versa.

Thanks for helping me brainwrap that.

It seems to be more of a risk management strategy than anything.  Most of the transactions are cancelling out with zero risk while ensuring that you are right there on a reversal.

The method I explained earlier harvests the volatility. True, in a monotonic move, your profit is minimal. Greater volatility however increases your quantity of profitable trades.

Your only real risk is that it runs off in a huge move that exhausts your supply of one side of the pair.

That is possible, if you don't have sufficient assets to ride out any macro move. Which is why I have only a small percentage of my crypto in my trading stash.

[JayJuanGee]

Trading is very slow for me over the last 24 hours or so - I'm filling only a couple of orders an hour - usually its 20-30 orders and hour.

Where is all the action at?

you must be a bot

A starbot

Or maybe I just picked the wrong coins to trade in this month. Everything seems pretty slow to me - I should probably reduce my margins.

I am happy with a few orders filling in a day, and I am thinking that in the future, I would likely be happy with a few orders filling per week.

I also don't play around with margin trading because it seems too risky, just on the face of it seems like a kind of gambling to me, unless there are ways to just employ it as a hedge... but seems too complicated for the most part. 

Largely, I am happy with just preserving the status quo of my BTC holdings (which I guess is mostly just an attempt at preservation of principle) and counting on long term BTC price appreciation for accumulation of wealth, rather than practices that feel like gambling (and certainly any kind of margin trading would feel like gambling to me).   

[moneyForjam]

really interested to see what will happen at the 8190-8160 area

[JayJuanGee]

Your only real risk is that it runs off in a huge move that exhausts your supply of one side of the pair.

That is possible, if you don't have sufficient assets to ride out any macro move. Which is why I have only a small percentage of my crypto in my trading stash.

jbreher:  I don't know if you response adequately outlines what you actually would do in such a extreme downwardly volatile situation.  Are you suggesting that at certain price points you would stop buying, or do you just change the amounts and the increments?

Let's just concede that our recent price run of BTC went up to $20k, and you had been pretty much selling incrementally all the way up to nearly that price point.  Therefore you had accumulated a decent amount of a stash of fiat to buy back BTC all the way down to $6k, which was about a 70% price correction. 

How much further down could the BTC price go before you would stop buying?  Were you prepared for 85%, which would have been around $3k?  or 90%, which would have been around $2k? or 95%, which would have been around $1k? or 97.5%, which would have been around $500?
 
Let's talk real world numbers and the extent of your plan past 70% down.... We did get to witness 70% down in the real world and numbers like that really do put stresses on a large number of plans, and some folks had to rethink their plans and even to completely change their plans because they might not have been psychologically or financially prepared for anything much beyond 35% (which in this case was around $13k).  We actually witnessed several live participants of the WO thread panicking around 35% correction.. and even if they did not completely panick they engaged in a kind of conduct that was a bit contrary to having had a good plan that they could actually follow in the real world of bitcoin, which involves downward price corrections that go beyond rational expectations..

[babanana]

It seems the "old ones" doesn't understand what bitcoin is or the whole cryptocurrency. The so called experts are also old and calling all fud against bitcoin. Yet almost all crypto enthusiasts are the younger generation, mid 30's and below. There is the barrier. The technological gap between old and young. Give it a few years when we "young" are the old, then we'll see it flourish.

Early 30's here.  

[JayJuanGee]

really interested to see what will happen at the 8190-8160 area

Like I already said, newbie, it does not matter until it gets down to $7k-ish or perhaps $6,666... then we are fucked... that is if it gets there.  

[moneyForjam]

Your only real risk is that it runs off in a huge move that exhausts your supply of one side of the pair.

That is possible, if you don't have sufficient assets to ride out any macro move. Which is why I have only a small percentage of my crypto in my trading stash.

jbreher:  I don't know if you response adequately outlines what you actually would do in such a extreme downwardly volatile situation.  Are you suggesting that at certain price points you would stop buying, or do you just change the amounts and the increments?

Let's just concede that our recent price run of BTC went up to $20k, and you had been pretty much selling incrementally all the way up to nearly that price point.  Therefore you had accumulated a decent amount of a stash of fiat to buy back BTC all the way down to $6k, which was about a 70% price correction. 

How much further down could the BTC price go before you would stop buying?  Were you prepared for 85%, which would have been around $3k?  or 90%, which would have been around $2k? or 95%, which would have been around $1k? or 97.5%, which would have been around $500?
 
Let's talk real world numbers and the extent of your plan past 70% down.... We did get to witness 70% down in the real world and numbers like that really do put stresses on a large number of plans, and some folks had to rethink their plans and even to completely change their plans because they might not have been psychologically or financially prepared for anything much beyond 35% (which in this case was around $13k).  We actually witnessed several live participants of the WO thread panicking around 35% correction.. and even if they did not completely panick they engaged in a kind of conduct that was a bit contrary to having had a good plan that they could actually follow in the real world of bitcoin, which involves downward price corrections that go beyond rational expectations..

*yawn*
I will start buying at 2k and stop buying at 1k

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

*yawn*
I will start buying at 2k and stop buying at 1k

The question is not for you, newbie, because if you read the contents of the post and the set up, we are already assuming an incrementalist practice of buying on the way down.

You assume a different kind of gambling scenario, when it appears to be a pretty big stretch to assume that this correction would be 90% to 95%... and that you would wait to buy in that range.. because it seems pretty unlikely to reach such range, so your odds of winning seem pretty low... still in the less than 5% arena.. so it seems to me.

[moneyForjam]

really interested to see what will happen at the 8190-8160 area

Like I already said, newbie, it does not matter until it gets down to $7k-ish or perhaps $6,666... then we are fucked... that is if it gets there.  

Please speak for yourself. When price gets to 6666, and you r fucked, can I have your merits ?

Personally, I'm selling the up bounces.

[Neo_Coin]

[Karartma1]

May I please get September 1st 2018? Nobody got September and I love September. Since I am a latecomer I will donate the entire sum if it happens to be me. Sounds good?

If you snatched the prize from somebody who would have otherwise won, I don't think they'd be too pleased about that, even if you do donate your windfall. You're working with new information now that wasn't available to the other participants, so you shouldn't be allowed to compete.

One of the reasons (there are more) I picked 28/08/2018 is because it also covered a good part of September.
If it is allowed to pick new dates now, it should also be allowed to change the previous picks too. Maybe even the ones that already "lost" because maybe (or surely) they would have picked a later date now.

Fair enough, I actually agree with you both. My bad I was not around to pick a date to participate in mic's contest. I'll keep that date in my mind though  

[flynn]

May I please get September 1st 2018? Nobody got September and I love September. Since I am a latecomer I will donate the entire sum if it happens to be me. Sounds good?

If you snatched the prize from somebody who would have otherwise won, I don't think they'd be too pleased about that, even if you do donate your windfall. You're working with new information now that wasn't available to the other participants, so you shouldn't be allowed to compete.

One of the reasons (there are more) I picked 28/08/2018 is because it also covered a good part of September.
If it is allowed to pick new dates now, it should also be allowed to change the previous picks too. Maybe even the ones that already "lost" because maybe (or surely) they would have picked a later date now.

Fair enough, I actually agree with you both. My bad I was not around to pick a date to participate in mic's contest. I'll keep that date in my mind though  

Beside, It's far easier to guess now than a month ago.

[marcus_of_augustus]

I ain't 'playing victim'. There is a wide gulf from permissionless innovation that you don't happen to care for, and outright lying in order to besmirch character.

I understood the first sentence, but I couldn't make sense of the second. Care to explain?

Certainly. MoA stated that I engaged in spamming in order to cripple Bitcoin Segwit. Of course, I have done nothing of the sort. As might be deduced from the fact that MoA was unable to provide a single shred of evidence for such an accusation. Ergo, MoA was lying. Likely in order to besmirch my character.

how about this ... just piss off you duplicitous tosser? This is no longer 'your' bitcoin after you have now pitched your tent at the Bcash shit-show circus along with Peter_R, the other daft thinkers and outright sociopath control freaks ... why do you really keep slinking back around here, to preach to us the error of segwit ways and straying from the One True Vision of Satoshi?? it's really kind of stalky and a bit creepy.

"besmirch your character" it's an anonymous internet forum you plonker, who cares about your non-existent character?

.... and after all that I didn't say YOU specifically engaged in spamming just that you were from the cohort of Bcash idiots that were cheering on, encouraging and engaging in a myriad of despicable attacks on bitcoin, including spamming, to pump their shitcoin Bcash.

The amount of half-truths, lies, misinformation-spreading, slander and personal attacks against people in real life the deluded 'hard-fork now!' cultists have engaged in is disgusting, maybe heal thyself physician? Or are you just projecting the worst traits of your Bcash partners elsewhere to ease your conscience?

[Majormax]

really interested to see what will happen at the 8190-8160 area

Like I already said, newbie, it does not matter until it gets down to $7k-ish or perhaps $6,666... then we are fucked... that is if it gets there.  

Please speak for yourself. When price gets to 6666, and you r fucked, can I have your merits ?

Personally, I'm selling the up bounces.

You have a plan, and that is good.  

Taking a view that $2000 would be the bottom, and $1000 would indicate failure of BTC. Those levels have some basis in the historical charts, if you view the whole price history of BTC as 5 big waves.

The 5 highs can be estimated at 3x to 10x the previous high, but more accurately, the lows can be estimated just above the preceding high. That gives the $2000 and $1000 levels.

It is only one way of viewing it, but better than choosing more arbitary levels.

[moneyForjam]

I ain't 'playing victim'. There is a wide gulf from permissionless innovation that you don't happen to care for, and outright lying in order to besmirch character.

I understood the first sentence, but I couldn't make sense of the second. Care to explain?

Certainly. MoA stated that I engaged in spamming in order to cripple Bitcoin Segwit. Of course, I have done nothing of the sort. As might be deduced from the fact that MoA was unable to provide a single shred of evidence for such an accusation. Ergo, MoA was lying. Likely in order to besmirch my character.

Oh dear! this guy sounds like hes in your naughty cnorner?

how about this ... just piss off you duplicitous tosser? This is no longer 'your' bitcoin after you have now pitched your tent at the Bcash shit-show circus along with Peter_R, the other daft thinkers and outright sociopath control freaks ... why do you really keep slinking back around here, to preach to us the error of segwit ways and straying from the One True Vision of Satoshi?? it's really kind of stalky and a bit creepy.

"besmirch your character" it's an anonymous internet forum you plonker, who cares about your non-existent character?

.... and after all that I didn't say YOU specifically engaged in spamming just that you were from the cohort of Bcash idiots that were cheering on, encouraging and engaging in a myriad of despicable attacks on bitcoin, including spamming, to pump their shitcoin Bcash.

The amount of half-truths, lies, misinformation-spreading, slander and personal attacks against people in real life the deluded 'hard-fork now!' cultists have engaged in is disgusting, maybe heal thyself physician? Or are you just projecting the worst traits of your Bcash partners elsewhere to ease your conscience?

[d_eddie]

I guess nobody cares about this: http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/11/investing/lagarde-bitcoin-regulation/index.html

Wow was 8000 the new bottom retest?

Where’s Smokey the Bear?

Maybe that IMF statement was too pathetic sounding?

Why would anybody give a rat's ass about regulation when decentralized exchanges are on the horizon? For the very first time in history regulators won't be able to dictate their rule upon citizens.

Decentralized exchanges need fiat on/offramps too, so they can be choked or leashed by regulation. That's the one issue that still makes me give a ratt's ass.

But wouldn't that be peer to peer also? Ie a private person sending money to another private person through Paypal or SEPA or Swish or whatever. Impossible for any bank or government to connect with a selling or buying of crypto.

You're correct, Arriemoller. But they've got automatic bank information exchange all over already, so they can at least be leashed by governments threatening banks if they don't playy watchdog on you. Your bank becomes your enemy. Uh, "becomes"?  

[HairyMaclairy]

TA confirms 1 Doge = 1 Dog

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

TA confirms 1 Doge = 1 Dog

What if someone hacks the markets and changes 1 Doge to 0 Doge?