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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21578618 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (143 posts by 33 users deleted.)
mymenace
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February 16, 2018, 11:15:58 PM

In terms of awareness it is probably 1998 but adoption wise it is probably around 1995 with just the university kids on the Net. Cool colleagues have just started trading crypto but the rest is still ignoring it. Some probably will the rest of their lives  Grin

It makes sense. Almost everybody has already heard of Bitcoin the same as Internet in 95-97. But way less than 1% got/use, so it is 93-95 in that.

Also in terms of development it is like when we only had telnet, ftp, email and irc (I always considered gopher useless).... and everything was command line/shell only.

It was the development of HTPP what transformed it into something "ready" for mainstream people.

I think we still lack that "http" of Bitcoin... but LN is surely a step in the right direction.

And it was major players like AOL what helped in its adoption... I am not sure Bitcoin already have its "AOL" or if we could consider Coinbase to be the equivalent.


I thought that bitcoin is the HTTP.. and everything get's built upon bitcoin.. no?

No. HTTP is a higher layer (lower than HTML though). Bitcoin/Blockchain is more like TCP/IP (it's just an analogy).

Higher layers are the next step towards user ergonomy. We need more of those in which blockchain would be just an underlaying transparent lower level layer.... and "Bitcoin" will be *ALL* that.

Maybe even some additional layers in which BTC is converted to "stable" DIGITAL fiat via sidechain atomic swaps.


yeah i like that

IP = Blockchain

replace the IP addresses with encrypted blockchain addresses

decentralize the ip layer - web 3.0 is here

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JayJuanGee
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February 16, 2018, 11:21:48 PM

In terms of awareness it is probably 1998 but adoption wise it is probably around 1995 with just the university kids on the Net. Cool colleagues have just started trading crypto but the rest is still ignoring it. Some probably will the rest of their lives  Grin

It makes sense. Almost everybody has already heard of Bitcoin the same as Internet in 95-97. But way less than 1% got/use, so it is 93-95 in that.

Also in terms of development it is like when we only had telnet, ftp, email and irc (I always considered gopher useless).... and everything was command line/shell only.

It was the development of HTPP what transformed it into something "ready" for mainstream people.

I think we still lack that "http" of Bitcoin... but LN is surely a step in the right direction.

And it was major players like AOL what helped in its adoption... I am not sure Bitcoin already have its "AOL" or if we could consider Coinbase to be the equivalent.


I thought that bitcoin is the HTTP.. and everything get's built upon bitcoin.. no?

No. HTTP is a higher layer (lower than HTML though). Bitcoin/Blockchain is more like TCP/IP (it's just an analogy).

Higher layers are the next step towards user ergonomy. We need more of those in which blockchain would be just an underlaying transparent lower level layer.... and "Bitcoin" will be *ALL* that.

Maybe even some additional layers in which BTC is converted to "stable" DIGITAL fiat via sidechain atomic swaps.

O.k....   Your earlier point makes more sense, now.  Thanks for the ELI5 clarification, which is good for me, and may help out some others too with these ongoing assertions of fitting analogies.
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February 16, 2018, 11:31:19 PM
Merited by bones261 (2), JimboToronto (1), Wekkel (1), Torque (1), Bitcoinaire (1)

Bitcoin bears are betting against a known limited supply of bitcoin. Bitcoin bulls are betting against an unknown unlimited supply of fiat.

/thread (for today)
bones261
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February 16, 2018, 11:56:17 PM

It would be really nice if F2Pool decided to help us clean up this garbage in the mempool. This hard line they have set up of only verifying tx at 5sats/byte and above really irks me. Roll Eyes
conspirosphere.tk
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February 17, 2018, 12:04:54 AM

When Wall Street and corporations start singing the praises of Bitcoin ETFs, hedge fund investors can begin to invest directly through those vehicles, and Mom and Pop suddenly find a Bitcoin ETF as part of their company's Mutual Fund 401k portfolio offerings... then look the fk out.

A question is if the Big Swinging Dicks will trade mostly BTC or every sort of shitcoins.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-02-15/bitcoin-volatility-sparks-surge-crypto-hedge-funds
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February 17, 2018, 12:07:43 AM

Wasn't the internet fairly unpopular until 2012ish

what?
BlindMayorBitcorn
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February 17, 2018, 12:20:33 AM

Bitcoin bears are betting against a known limited supply of bitcoin. Bitcoin bulls are betting against an unknown unlimited supply of fiat.

/thread (for today)





Wasn't the internet fairly unpopular until 2012ish

what?

bones261
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February 17, 2018, 12:24:41 AM
Last edit: February 17, 2018, 12:41:13 AM by bones261

Wasn't the internet fairly unpopular until 2012ish

what?

Yes, I remember back in 2011 when I could only write letters in longhand to loved ones and rely on the Pony Express for fast delivery. I also had to walk to work, 10 miles in the snow. Uphill both ways!
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February 17, 2018, 12:32:48 AM

wow, such se reflechier, wisdom in the last pages, no shouting, no war , unreal
but a good read  Smiley


boring is what it was
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February 17, 2018, 12:39:50 AM
Last edit: February 17, 2018, 01:10:49 AM by JayJuanGee
Merited by d_eddie (1)

By the way, as opposed to JJG's implementation, so to say, of this system, you do seem to have a ladder of sells/buys already set up, and you do your maintainance by removing debris - that is, orders at the same price but on the opposite side of the one just executed. At least, that is the way I understand it.

Nope. Standing buys at regular intervals below the current price, and standings sells at regular intervals above the current price. Two-interval gap in between. There is no removing to be done. When a sell executes, enter a corresponding buy at cheaper price. When a buy executes, enter a corresponding sell at a higher price.


Yep... I think that you make the above point fairly clearly, jbreher, and that is once the buy/sell orders are set up, then when you are employing the incrementalist trade (or step trading) practice, you just sit back and add orders as previously set orders fill and rake in the money from those orders filling (whether you are taking your profits in BTC or fiat is your choice).

Mistakes
I think that this is a decent place to bring up that practicing the employment of your incremental trading strategy can really help to make the whole process become almost self-propelled because you kind of get into a groove.. yet, if we are humans, from time to time, we are going to make mistakes, and I suppose the same could be true if we were attempting to program bots (which I do not use), we might end up programming some aspect of the bot incorrectly which causes a screw up in our intention.

Since both jbreher and I are attempting to apply our system manually, I am sure that jbreher has had some similar experiences as me in which he has made mistakes in entering his buy/sell orders, and if he catches the mistake before it executes, then no harm, no foul.   On the other hand sometimes, mistakes are made that cause either an immediate execution of the order or you do not notice the mistake until after the mistaken order had already executed.. perhaps putting in too large of an order or accidentally making a market buy/sell when you had meant to set up a limited order.  

Probably about 1-3 times per month I make some kind of mistaken order that executes before I can catch it and causes me to have to restructure some aspects of my buy/sell orders in order to make up, in my mind, for my mistake(s). In those cases, I restructure my orders in such a way that allows me to either profit from the mistake or at least to largely neutralize the mistake (which might merely be my own mental framework and ability to move on from the mistake).

I will outline a mistake example from yesterday.

Yesterday, when BTC prices reached $10k, I had several BTC sell orders execute, and I had been getting a bit anxious so I had actually lowered some of my BTC trading price intervals in order that: 1) I could get some more BTC trading action and 2) to attempt to make up for inability to sign into GDAX, but I surmised that my outstanding preset BTC sell orders on GDAX are still going to trigger without my ability to verify if they had triggered because I cannot sign into GDAX's service (those fucks).  

So, after one of my BTC sell orders executed at just below $10k, I had intended to create two buy orders around $9k - one buy order just above $9k and the second one at about $9,300.  When I entered the just above $9k order, I accidentally typed in $10,xxx, which caused an immediate market buy order at the then price of $10,028... and I said to my selfie, "fuck!!   I had just sold at $9,9xx, and now I just bought a decent portion (about 1/4 of the total) of that back at $10,028."

My ballpark remedy for my mistake involved on the buy end setting only one buy order, instead of two, in the lower $9,0xx range and lowering that buy amount if the BTC price were to go down to those levels.   My remedy on the sell end was to remove two of my upper sell orders at $10,4xx and $10,9xx and to parcel out my sell orders into 5 sell orders that would more than adequately make up for my mistaken buy at $10,028, if BTC prices were to go up.. Therefore my new sell orders were adjusted to be spread out and set at $10,2xx, $10,4xx $10,7xx, $10,9xx and $11,2xx.  

I feel good about my ballpark remedy for my mistake, and I have become neutral in my own mind regarding the direction of BTC prices.  Accordingly, in my mind, I consider my mistake to be remedied no matter which way BTC prices go.  If BTC prices go up, then I profit by the way I set my additional sell orders, and if the BTC price goes down, I buy less BTC, and consider my $10,028 to have been a buy that adds to my BTC accumulation (which I am trying to achieve anyhow).  I consider my whole accidental buy of 1/4 of my $9,9xx sell amount at $10,028 to have been largely neutralized by my removal of one of my buy orders and decreasing the buy amount on my other buy order at $9,0xx.  

Surely, in this actual situation, I do come out better if BTC prices go up, but since I am in this whole BTC accumulation business for the long term, and I have been valuing my wealth in bitcoin (as Adam Meister says) and I am not bothered by some additional BTC that I ended up accumulating because in the long run, I do consider that my goal is to accumulate BTC and that in the long run, BTC prices are going to go up much beyond my $10,028 mistaken purchase price (which was buying back about 1/4 of the amount that I had sold at $9,9xx)..***

Hopefully, this example outlines one approach that an incrementalist (step) trader might employ to deal with a mistake that would allow:  1)  to potentially profit from the mistake, and 2) to largely mentally move on from the mistake, while allowing the BTC price to come to his/her position rather than taking some more drastic (or risky gambling) measure that might either lock in losses or cause too much gambling of the holdings or stress.


*** actually another way of characterizing my BTC buy mistake is that I had sold 1/4 less than I had originally planned. because I bought 1/4 of the amount that I sold back right away, so that would have been a net selling of 1/4 less BTC.
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February 17, 2018, 01:05:11 AM
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It would be really nice if F2Pool decided to help us clean up this garbage in the mempool. This hard line they have set up of only verifying tx at 5sats/byte and above really irks me. Roll Eyes

... it's not really that surprising, for a long time now the default in the bitcoin core (satoshi) client has been to treat TX with fees 5 sat/byte and lower as spam. In fact, I think the default setting is to not even relay TX with 5 sat/byte or less fee.

Those defaults may need revisiting now that value is at ~$10k per btc (or ~10cents for a regular 225 byte TX). It's been a shortcoming for a long time that 'spam' TX need defining by default/hardcode selections in the client network (bitcoin network has no way to know external valuations trustlessly) but a functioning fee market is showing a way to removing those completely now ... think of them as 'training wheels'.
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February 17, 2018, 01:17:42 AM

It would be really nice if F2Pool decided to help us clean up this garbage in the mempool. This hard line they have set up of only verifying tx at 5sats/byte and above really irks me. Roll Eyes

... it's not really that surprising, for a long time now the default in the bitcoin core (satoshi) client has been to treat TX with fees 5 sat/byte and lower as spam. In fact, I think the default setting is to not even relay TX with 5 sat/byte or less fee.

Those defaults may need revisiting now that value is at ~$10k per btc (or ~10cents for a regular 225 byte TX). It's been a shortcoming for a long time that 'spam' TX need defining by default/hardcode selections in the client network (bitcoin network has no way to know external valuations trustlessly) but a functioning fee market is showing a way to removing those completely now ... think of them as 'training wheels'.

I guess that I will give them a pass. Some of the transactions with the low fee getting confirmed are really suspect anyway. Who really needs to combine 20+ UTXO, that are all exactly 17562 sats or some nonsense? They look suspect to me, but I suppose they could be legit.
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February 17, 2018, 01:20:20 AM

What do y'all do when you are asleep or otherwise AFK and a sudden bout of volatility wipes a wider hole in your spread?
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February 17, 2018, 01:26:19 AM


[...Shit happens...]


Yup Sad
Last of the V8s
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February 17, 2018, 01:35:12 AM

https://research.checkpoint.com/jenkins-miner-one-biggest-mining-operations-ever-discovered/
maybe found one of the mystery xmr miners/botnets
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February 17, 2018, 01:47:14 AM

Is there noone observing the fucking walls or what?  Huh
Last of the V8s
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February 17, 2018, 01:48:04 AM

bit of a leg up to 10335. unexpected?
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February 17, 2018, 01:52:18 AM

bit of a leg up to 10335. unexpected?

Donno, maybe a rekt short. The longer it sustain this levels more shorters will be getting liquidated even if just because of high interest on the margin.

A good healthy cascading upwards is what we are all waiting though....
BlindMayorBitcorn
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February 17, 2018, 01:54:13 AM

bit of a leg up to 10335. unexpected?

We had a 2 minute spot on Ellen today. I expected more.
I don't want to be a poor sport, but Richard Heart might have had a point. Wall street is just selling to mainstream audiences now, first CNBC, now daytime television. What's left? Where's the next gangster payout for yours truly?  Huh
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February 17, 2018, 01:56:11 AM

I watch this thread so that I wouldn't have to watch the walls.
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