Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Toxic2040]

*sniff*  *sniff*   something in the air..

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[Toxic2040]

Reminds me of my new drinking game. Every morning there isn't a spectacular crashy pull back I take a shot.

Good job you can still remember it!

I'm honestly beginning to fear that my retirement years are going to be spent running out first thing in the morning for a covfefe and 6 pack of beer, and loafing in this thread all day.

There are worse fates..
Managing a crypto estate is like work..at least for now. In the future it will become mostly automated thru sentient AI's and not nearly such a burden.

[bones261]

Reminds me of my new drinking game. Every morning there isn't a spectacular crashy pull back I take a shot.

Yes, these days without a big pullback have left me with several bids that are being left in the dust. Oh well, each bid only represents about 1% of my holdings, so overall the 99% of my holdings are looking better. I won't be inventing any drinking games though, to celebrate. I have been on the wagon since 2009.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Reminds me of my new drinking game. Every morning there isn't a spectacular crashy pull back I take a shot.

Good job you can still remember it!

I'm honestly beginning to fear that my retirement years are going to be spent running out first thing in the morning for a covfefe and 6 pack of beer, and loafing in this thread all day.

I fail to see the problem.

[gentlemand]

Reminds me of my new drinking game. Every morning there isn't a spectacular crashy pull back I take a shot.

Good job you can still remember it!

I'm honestly beginning to fear that my retirement years are going to be spent running out first thing in the morning for a covfefe and 6 pack of beer, and loafing in this thread all day.

I fail to see the problem.

It will be an education as The People witness one man's descent into dementia and incontinence in real time.

[jojo69]

Reminds me of my new drinking game. Every morning there isn't a spectacular crashy pull back I take a shot.

Good job you can still remember it!

I'm honestly beginning to fear that my retirement years are going to be spent running out first thing in the morning for a covfefe and 6 pack of beer, and loafing in this thread all day.

that seems to be a pattern

I'm seriously hoping the longer days and sunlight are going to help

[jbreher]

you might be confusing 'smartness' with something else entirely ... idiots educated beyond the level of their intellectual capacity is not a new phenomena .... probably the internet has just created a swag more of these dangerous fools .... case in point take jbreher with his dunning-kruger tendencies now leading him to write in overly-eloquent verbiage to convey trivial, and usually erroneous, meandering thoughts; then hops on his high-horse about a computer science and networking design matter that is clearly well-outside his grasp, and follows up to defend his bruised ego by championing a cause that is clearly to his economic detriment ... that fact alone encapsulates educated beyond their intelligence.

You're adorable. Here - have a merit.

[JayJuanGee]

So it looks like we were just in the first sell off/bear trap phase. Nice.

If you are referring to this one,






then such an assessment seems very plausible.  Sure, we don't know for sure until after the fact and maybe a few years later, but seems like a pretty decent case that we are in "first sell off/bear trap phase"..... or another scenario could be that within the next few months BTC prices go up to somewhere between $50k and $100k, and then thereafter in the end of the year or early next year fall down into a  "first sell off/bear trap phase" that brings us down for a more sustainable down market and lasts a year or more until after the 2020 halvening...   I don't really know, but I could see one more up before having a decent sized down that plays out over 2018.

[jojo69]

ether can stop tanking any time here...dammit

[Toxic2040]

JJG..I see your chart and raise you sir.

[cAPSLOCK]

ether can stop tanking any time here...dammit

Truly looks like a bit of an un-flippening going on IMO...  

I expect a bit of a pushback around 11850.  Wonder if we will make it there.

[JayJuanGee]

inb4 MSM 'The bitcoin bubble is back'
~
(volume is too low)

Fuck!!!!!


From my overview of the situation (whatever the fuck I know?), BTC trade volume looks pretty great, especially for a weekend!!!

[jbreher]

What do y'all do when you are asleep or otherwise AFK and a sudden bout of volatility wipes a wider hole in your spread?

Just rebuild it when you get BTK (back to keyboard). No worries.

[bones261]

ether can stop tanking any time here...dammit

Truly looks like a bit of an un-flippening going on IMO...  

I expect a bit of a pushback around 11850.  Wonder if we will make it there.

My brief stint with Ether was actually with the token, the DAO. Didn't end well for me...

[infofront]

Reminds me of my new drinking game. Every morning there isn't a spectacular crashy pull back I take a shot.

I'm not sure if that's very healthy in the long run. There's bound to be vastly more non-spectacular pull back days than the converse.

No, it's just a game. I can stop anytime I want.

The last time I said that I ended up clocking 1800 days of playtime into a single game.

World of Warcraft?

[jbreher]

So, when are we going to hit $1,000,000?

Let's project.  

If we assume the average doubling floor time of 6 months over the last 5 years (including the 2014-2015 bear market):

$20k Aug 2018
$40k Feb 2019
$80k Aug 2019
$160k Feb 2021
$320k Aug 2021
$640k Feb 2022
$1.28MM Aug 2022

Three and a half more years.

If the doubling time persists at 3 months (the approx. average of the last three doublings), then just under two years. Mid 2020.

Wow.

You lot that like to sell your BTC in increments to buy back, take note that you don’t run out.  

Using the numbers above, even should there be no volatility to be harvested (as if), I'm good through 2022.

[JayJuanGee]

*sniff*  *sniff*   something in the air..

I think that it is overcooked bear, perhaps?   

[Searing]

Reminds me of my new drinking game. Every morning there isn't a spectacular crashy pull back I take a shot.

Good job you can still remember it!

I'm honestly beginning to fear that my retirement years are going to be spent running out first thing in the morning for a covfefe and 6 pack of beer, and loafing in this thread all day.

I retired (could retire w/o cryto hoard...but when BTC hit 10k ...as a backstop I am trying never to use..I was like out of excuses).

Anyway, retired 1/14/18 and it is now 2/17/18....

and you have pretty much nailed this first month at least........

then again, hard to do 'projects on the house' when you are mining scrypt-pow yet...and keep tripping over stuff that makes you some coin (garlicoin as an example...gotta love
them knc titans and scrypt-n)

so yeah, it is pretty much 'loaf city' till I start to make less money, mucking with real world house fix stuff..then maybe, I can take a vacation and/or work on the house

(then again it is winter and cold as f*ck outside also)

So yeah, you pretty much 'nailed it'

gonna have to work on how to 'structure' my 'leisure time' .....besides crypto

brad

[JayJuanGee]

Reminds me of my new drinking game. Every morning there isn't a spectacular crashy pull back I take a shot.

Yes, these days without a big pullback have left me with several bids that are being left in the dust. Oh well, each bid only represents about 1% of my holdings, so overall the 99% of my holdings are looking better. I won't be inventing any drinking games though, to celebrate. I have been on the wagon since 2009.

Ultimately, you have to be prepared for the possibility that your buy orders will get left behind forever and ever, and that you are mostly emotionally neutral to the scenario that they get left behind forever and ever.  

If you are not mostly emotional neutral that your buy orders get left behind forever and ever, then you likely are "playing" (trading) with too large amounts, and you need to reduce your amounts until they reach such a level that you are largely emotionally neutral about them getting left behind forever and ever.

The reality of the matter is that in a large number of cases, your buy orders are not going to get left behind forever and ever, but you should not care nor think too much about it...  

By the way, recall that the first time around on the way up from $890 to $19,666 (that took about 9 months to play out), seems like we had a fewer than 5 retracements that were 27% or greater, and I believe that the maximum retracement was 40%-ish in mid-September from $4,980 to $2,970.  So under that actual real life application, there were a lot of folks who left a lot of buy orders on the table on the way up - however, there are ways to deal with such including from time to time, the increments and the amounts of those left behind buy orders can be shuffled around in order to make them much more profitable in the event that a downturn comes and, especially during what ended up being our 70% retracement from $19,666 to $5,921.  And, also, sometimes you can decide to use some of that money and just completely take it off the table in a practice that Rptiella had referred to as "raking" in his SSS thread.

[rolling]

Korea is leading this thing again as they did during the entire run up to 19666. That is a good sign. There are no trading games to be had when there is real demand for a finite resource.