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Question: Closing BTC Price June 28:
$0 - 0 (0%)
<$7,000 - 0 (0%)
$7,000-$7,499 - 0 (0%)
$7,500-$7,999 - 0 (0%)
$8,000-$8,499 - 0 (0%)
$8,500-$8,999 - 0 (0%)
$9,000-$9,499 - 1 (25%)
$9,500-$9,999 - 2 (50%)
$10,000-$10,499 - 0 (0%)
$10,500-10,999 - 0 (0%)
$11,000-$11,499 - 0 (0%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 0 (0%)
>$12,000 - 1 (25%)
>$20,000 - 0 (0%)
Total Voters: 4

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21230837 times)
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pleaseexplain
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February 18, 2018, 03:57:18 AM


Let's assume (for the third or fourth time, I know) that this is the last time we see quad-digits. Dangerous, I know, but I get impatient.

Since my last update, this means Da Bears only managed to erode into a single doubling floor, extending the $5k to $10k floor by 21 more days, for a total of 121 days since we last saw $5k.

For reference, the Mt Gox correction eroded three presumed doubling floors ($640, $320, $160), taking over three years to reestablish these support levels.

Projecting from trend, I'm thinking another 90 days until we establish $20k as a new floor, maybe around mid-May.

$10k marks the 12th Bitcoin doubling floor since $2.50 in 2012.
The shortest doubling floor was 39 days from $20 to $40.
The longest doubling floor was 546 days from $80 to $160 post-Mt Gox.

As a HODLer, I prefer charting floors vs all-time highs. ATHs are too transient and susceptible to FUD, making them more suitable for rektees traders.  Grin

Go Bitcoin Go!



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2834180.msg29061043


this chart is great. it shows lots of things but mainly the benefits of not selling and even if you buy at a 'worst possible time"  it all comes right
eg if you only got into bitcoin at the height of the goxxing and spent $5,000 at a $1000 price it would have given you 5 bitcoins. It would take about 3.5 years for the price to recover to that point and another 0.5 years for it to be at $10,000.

 ie your $5000 has in 4 years become $50,000 or the equivalent of an 80% annual compounding interest rate if the money was in the bank and during that period the banks would have only given you say a 3% compounding rate. No wonder they are scared.
It makes it a "no brainer" that for all - big and small- that you have at least some of your savings in bitcoin.

Is my arithmetic reasonably accurate?
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somac.
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February 18, 2018, 03:57:56 AM

Damn good to see bitcoin making up some ground vs the alts. I'll be much happier when it is around 50% and bitcoin is at 50k  Grin

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February 18, 2018, 04:03:00 AM

I'll just leave this here.

JayJuanGee
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February 18, 2018, 04:21:21 AM
Last edit: February 18, 2018, 05:19:49 AM by JayJuanGee

The other is much more significant if you care to delve into it. As hype about innovation crests over the peak on it move towards the productivity plateau you can clearly see where we are at with blockchains. The hype about bitcoin arriving is past us now..heading towards that plateau ahead of us in the future. But look what is trailing..how many of these upcoming innovations will need bitcoin and the blockchain to fully realize their potentials? A great many I say..all those next gen apps that we are just now dreaming up use cases for. Whether it be peer to peer decentralized immutable ledgers like bitcoin or permissioned one used for controlling autonomous vehicles lets say. The shear amount of "things" that will benefit from this literally boggles my mind man...

Woops, my bad!!!!   In part, hey if I would have seen "Blockchain" on the first glance at the chart on the other side of the hype peak, I might have rebelled a bit more strongly.. and called your the bear...  Tongue Tongue

Anyhow, whatever the various relationships between technologies, there is going to be symbism between them and they are going to likely feed off of each other in various ways that cannot be predicted with any kind of precision regarding possible winners or losers, including attempting to determine where they are at, exactly, in their own hype curve.

Yeah, there is going to be hype and over hype and under-appreciation of various technologies and their contributions to society and their potentials, but clumping bitcoin in  with "blockchain" and then trying to clump it in with various other technological innovations misses A BIG CHUNK of something that is differentiating about bitcoin specifically in the way that bitcoin is a decentralized system that has NEVER  ever been seen by the world.  That is called paradigm shifting in such a way that various other technologies are going to be playing off of bitcoin - and not really the other way around because bitcoin also has been bred with a honey badger, and does not give a fuck.

Anyhow, before I have an aneurysm, as you implied to be within the realm of possible reasons why you were holding back on my delicate nature a little bit, I will yield for a moment in the event that I may not need to rant any more on this point.. that bitcoin and blockchain are not the same thing.....



HELLLOOO
OOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!










o.k.. couldn't help myself..

I'm good..



I'm good.
Toxic2040
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February 18, 2018, 05:19:52 AM

You drunk fuck..have another.   Cheesy

I clearly spoke of each..well..I clearly implied something about each but I think you misunderstood me. That chart is not a financial graph..its purely about excitement over time. You could say that there is apparent correlation between hype and price but that really wasn't where I was going. Its about when something becomes popular and how long after that fact something useful is developed. I was using the example between the two charts to illustrate how early we really are...still. As far as bitcoin and blockchain..what ever..I get that..they are different. You can yell at me louder if you wish if thats what you want to do tho...
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February 18, 2018, 05:28:21 AM

So, when are we going to hit $1,000,000?

Let's project.  Smiley

If we assume the average doubling floor time of 6 months over the last 5 years (including the 2014-2015 bear market):

$20k Aug 2018
$40k Feb 2019
$80k Aug 2019
$160k Feb 2021
$320k Aug 2021
$640k Feb 2022
$1.28MM Aug 2022

Three and a half more years.

If the doubling time persists at 3 months (the approx. average of the last three doublings), then just under two years. Mid 2020.

Wow.




You lot that like to sell your BTC in increments to buy back, take note that you don’t run out.  

Using the numbers above, even should there be no volatility to be harvested (as if), I'm good through 2022.


Hahahahahaha.. jbreher... I don't mean to pick on you or to be stalking you, too much, but are you confessing that you are gonna run out of BTC if BTC prices were to go straight up to $1.28 million?    

I could not really blame you for running out of BTC in that kind of a scenario because seems that no matter what there are going to be some price corrections along the way.. there is almost no such thing as straight up, even going up 5x without a significant price correction wold be quite amazing, but going up from here to $1.28 million would be more than 110x, and surely there would be several pretty decently-sized price corrections in there to help any of us incrementalists to stack up our holdings in order to prepare for BTC price destinations higher than $1.28 million.

Re-read. Through 2022.
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February 18, 2018, 05:37:39 AM

Such retrace.  Much drop.  Wow.

It can go down to 10350 and bounce.
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February 18, 2018, 05:41:50 AM

Such retrace.  Much drop.  Wow.

It can go down to 10350 and bounce.

Up the stairs, down the toilet  elevtor shaft.
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February 18, 2018, 05:47:41 AM

Such retrace.  Much drop.  Wow.

It can go down to 10350 and bounce.

Up the stairs, down the toilet  elevtor shaft.

It was bouncing above and below $10k for days during the week. It could be bouncing above and below $11k for days during the coming week.

It was below $8k a week ago, so $10k in seven days isn't so bad.
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February 18, 2018, 05:55:12 AM

Here we go 'round the prickly pear...She'll break your heart every time.
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February 18, 2018, 06:03:06 AM

Such retrace.  Much drop.  Wow.

It can go down to 10350 and bounce.

Up the stairs, down the toilet  elevtor shaft.

It was bouncing above and below $10k for days during the week. It could be bouncing above and below $11k for days during the coming week.

It was below $8k a week ago, so $10k in seven days isn't so bad.

Not so bad? Quite great actually, even too fast I think. Though the rollercoaster ride is fun and educating at the same time.
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February 18, 2018, 06:04:41 AM

Such retrace.  Much drop.  Wow.

It can go down to 10350 and bounce.

Up the stairs, down the toilet  elevtor shaft.

It was bouncing above and below $10k for days during the week. It could be bouncing above and below $11k for days during the coming week.

It was below $8k a week ago, so $10k in seven days isn't so bad.

Not so bad? Quite great actually, even too fast I think. Though the rollercoaster ride is fun and educating at the same time.

It's the broken jaw of our lost kingdoms. We're doomed.
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February 18, 2018, 06:39:36 AM
Last edit: February 18, 2018, 06:54:37 AM by JayJuanGee

You drunk fuck..have another.   Cheesy

I clearly spoke of each..well..I clearly implied something about each but I think you misunderstood me. That chart is not a financial graph..its purely about excitement over time. You could say that there is apparent correlation between hype and price but that really wasn't where I was going. Its about when something becomes popular and how long after that fact something useful is developed. I was using the example between the two charts to illustrate how early we really are...still. As far as bitcoin and blockchain..what ever..I get that..they are different. You can yell at me louder if you wish if thats what you want to do tho...
What !!!!!!!
You!!!!!
Talking !!!!!!
About !!!!!!
Willis?!!!!!!




 For some reason, I felt prompted to yell.... Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

 Your subsequent explanation seems to concede that we are in the early stages of bitcoin's adoption; however,  I conclude, to my own health detriment, that your chart seems to suggest that we are past the hype cycle in BTC and all matters are downhill from here.. I can see it visually on your chart.   And, from my perspective, I doubt that we are going downhill from here whether we are talking about hype or we are talking about adoption, or we are talking about development or we are talking about financial.
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February 18, 2018, 06:42:13 AM

Quote
Quote
I'll also take the opportunity to rant a bit. Out of those four I mentioned, one is AWOL, one is dead, and the other two are fervent supporters of Bitcoin over BCash. Bitcoin is much more closely aligned with the original cypherpunk principles that elevate privacy and decentralization.
It's not even worth discussing. A forkcoin more or less signed into existence by an agreement of a few commercial enterprises and kept alive by a single conglomerate through the use of dubious tactics...

That was aimed at the handful of bcash supporters/sympathizers here. Are you reading all this jbreher?  Wink

Yep. I simply do not agree that Bitcoin Cash is centralized any more than Bitcoin Segwit in any meaningful way. I realize that there is an oft-repeated narrative that Ver and Wu have made every significant decision in regards to Bitcoin Cash, but this view is utterly ignorant bullshit. And if all y'all would venture outside of this echo chamber of a walled garden, you'd likely realize that latter point as being the truth of the matter


You expect way too much from biased ppl. It is a very hard task to get over the typical position talk most investors are trapped into after they ve done a similar hard decision to invest. It is getting into a cult state and such forum cannot help out much here....

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February 18, 2018, 06:56:24 AM

Sheeit. Lookin' like we may be droppin' below $10k again at this rate.
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February 18, 2018, 06:57:08 AM

rolling
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February 18, 2018, 07:03:48 AM

It is a little mind boggling that anyone would sell during the weekend knowing they could sell for 10-20% more on Monday. Can a bear explain the mentality?
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February 18, 2018, 07:51:35 AM
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It is a little mind boggling that anyone would sell during the weekend knowing they could sell for 10-20% more on Monday. Can a bear explain the mentality?
Most people are not super cool trading geniuses like you. That goes for high rollers too.
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February 18, 2018, 08:51:55 AM

[imghttps://i.imgur.com/UElSNKh.jpg[/img]


Yeah, but who would believe a story like that from a dead guy?
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February 18, 2018, 08:52:58 AM
Last edit: February 18, 2018, 10:11:44 AM by jojo69
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hmmmmmm

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