Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[RayX12]

Seems like there are big fast pushes down followed by a slow movement upwards followed by another big push down. It's that trickle upwards that shows what most of the market sentiment is. The big pushes down are either big sell offs or someone trying to make some money on a short.

Confirmed!

[Last of the V8s]

https://www.tensorcharts.com/
ooh nice the bottom right 'trades counter' shows proportion of market buys to sells over a period

[d_eddie]

Seems like there are big fast pushes down followed by a slow movement upwards followed by another big push down. It's that trickle upwards that shows what most of the market sentiment is. The big pushes down are either big sell offs or someone trying to make some money on a short.

Confirmed!

Yes, I called them shaking gestures. I wonder if the current one is separate from what happened a few hours ago, or if both together should count as one.

However called, down we go again. A higher low? I'm playing wait and see.

[Last of the V8s]

Seems like there are big fast pushes down followed by a slow movement upwards followed by another big push down. It's that trickle upwards that shows what most of the market sentiment is. The big pushes down are either big sell offs or someone trying to make some money on a short.

Confirmed!

Yes, I called them shaking gestures. I wonder if the current one is separate from what happened a few hours ago, or if both together should count as one.

However called, down we go again. A higher low? I'm playing wait and see.

[TERA2]

BTFD only applies to sharp high volume drops - not the slow preamble before it.

[Last of the V8s]

BTFD only applies to sharp high volume drops - not the slow preamble before it.

conceded. not yet but soon

[d_eddie]

BTFD only applies to sharp high volume drops - not the slow preamble before it.

Indeed. At the moment I'm nursing my hedging short. With the gentle swings of today, I managed to up its entry by ~120, while making a small profit. I'd like to buy some corn at the bottom, if I only knew where it is - or when. Just one of these two pieces of data would go a long way.

Care to suggest anything from your different - but respectable - vantage point?

[TERA2]

I dont have a good idea what will happen from here - only a wild guess that the old channel lines that are now at 2K and 3K (and will later be higher) will eventually play a significant role and will either trigger the next bull run or will grind on it for 1-2 years before failing.

[d_eddie]

I dont have a good idea what will happen from here - only that the old channel lines that are now at 2K and 3K (and will later be higher) will play a significant role and will either trigger the next bull run or will grind on it for 1-2 years before failing.

Thanks for sharing your opinion.

One objection I have to the second part of your reply is that trying to make out 1-2 years beyond now is probably a sterile exercise. The "real world" can push a lot, in either direction, during such a long time frame.

[yonton]

I dont have a good idea what will happen from here - only that the old channel lines that are now at 2K and 3K (and will later be higher) will play a significant role and will either trigger the next bull run or will grind on it for 1-2 years before failing.

Thanks for sharing your opinion.

One objection I have to the second part of your reply is that trying to make out 1-2 years beyond now is probably a sterile exercise. The "real world" can push a lot, in either direction, during such a long time frame.

Lets face it, you're only here because you sold at 2k and you dream of getting back in close to what you sold for? Reveal yourself!

[d_eddie]

I dont have a good idea what will happen from here - only that the old channel lines that are now at 2K and 3K (and will later be higher) will play a significant role and will either trigger the next bull run or will grind on it for 1-2 years before failing.

Thanks for sharing your opinion.

One objection I have to the second part of your reply is that trying to make out 1-2 years beyond now is probably a sterile exercise. The "real world" can push a lot, in either direction, during such a long time frame.

Lets face it, you're only here because you sold at 2k and you dream of getting back in close to what you sold for? Reveal yourself!

Are you asking me or Tera?

If it's me you're addressing, you're far from the truth. Very, very far.

Not that I would mind getting some coin at 2k... but not because I sold. And it's not a thing of today, or tomorrow.

[Last of the V8s]

[Majormax]

I dont have a good idea what will happen from here - only that the old channel lines that are now at 2K and 3K (and will later be higher) will play a significant role and will either trigger the next bull run or will grind on it for 1-2 years before failing.

Thanks for sharing your opinion.

One objection I have to the second part of your reply is that trying to make out 1-2 years beyond now is probably a sterile exercise. The "real world" can push a lot, in either direction, during such a long time frame.

That time frame is indeed a long way out in terms of possible events, but it is surprising how often chart analysis works out correct over the longer term. The short to medium term breaks down with unforseen events, yet the long term is a product of very large numbers of small chaotic events, and tends to exhibit its own structure regardless (or perhaps because of : classical chaos theory).

[d_eddie]

While we're here wondering, let's munch some gossip.
Here's a couple updates from Masterluc in the last few days.

(2018.03.25)
I do not know what to write, the indicators are not very good. Wall Street on Friday fell heavily, but bitcoin in the meantime is carefully cutting the sausage (sobering up?). In general, we trample carefully on the spot with bad indicators and surroundings.

(2018.03.20)
For my medium-term optimism, it is necessary that the price immediately rises above the daily ma 200 and weekly ma 20.

[Majormax]

Am I alone in thinking that this is the true beginning of the demise of bitcoin?
 

I was castigated on here when I posted this 10 days ago.
I still strongly believe we are watching crypto currencies die.
I want a few apologies when it becomes apparent to all.

What reason do you have for that ? 

Many projects will of course die. Crypto is most likely to survive. Even BTC at $2-3000 would simply be back to long term support,  not dead.

[Majormax]

I would respectfully suggest that Jamie Dimon has set the support and resistance for the next few years.  $2400/$20,000.

In Sept 2017 he said BTC was a fraud, but also  'don't short, it may go to $20,000'. The low after his remarks was $2400.

That may seem like a wide range, but volatility will remain high.

[STT]

Jamie knows that if you short BTC you must go long USD which as a former NYC FED chief he knows is a bad bet overall

While we're here wondering, let's munch some gossip.
Here's a couple updates from Masterluc in the last few days.

(2018.03.25)
I do not know what to write, the indicators are not very good. Wall Street on Friday fell heavily, but bitcoin in the meantime is carefully cutting the sausage (sobering up?). In general, we trample carefully on the spot with bad indicators and surroundings.

(2018.03.20)
For my medium-term optimism, it is necessary that the price immediately rises above the daily ma 200 and weekly ma 20.

MasterLuc needs to note the DXY or dollar index rather then DOW which is only 30 stocks and more like a barometer of sentiment really.

Here is the ETF which should align quite closely but stockcharts.com has the dollar index I think



Dollar index fell from its high on the new presidential term high, its lost about 10% or so.  The ETF shows -14%, some of that is fees.   It relates to dollar worth and should be inverse to BTC gains some.   If we did get a (sharply, note 2008) rising dollar index it really would be bearish for BTC otherwise I dont especially think crypto is under pressure apart  from its own making

[Last of the V8s]

I would respectfully suggest that Jamie Dimon has set the support and resistance for the next few years.  $2400/$20,000.

In Sept 2017 he said BTC was a fraud, but also  'don't short, it may go to $20,000'. The low after his remarks was $2400.

That may seem like a wide range, but volatility will remain high.

https://youtu.be/40OuVyVGdIM?t=55s
a month later he said it could trade at $100k

also he's too poor to affect markets
http://btcbase.org/log/2018-03-18#1788191
mircea_popescu: i dunno, maybe it's not apparent, let's reiterate. minigame is a multi-million dollar corp, trusted by people with multi-million dollars worth of virtual equipment. you understand me ? when it says 8k btc equity that means more money than dimon got.

[STT]

Funny thing in that video, he goes onto to recommend BTC in certain countries where they inflate the national FIAT currency.     So they dont do this is in USA at all, not to the same extent as Venezuela perhaps but certainly its in no way under control in Japan and I would argue also USA will not be able to control its debt.   The average term of debt for 20 trillion (increasingly more)  is 4 years,   thats juggling chainsaws for economic policy.   But none of this is accepted mainstream, it will knock onto crypto value and validity as a reliable exchangeable value system.

Japan has a horrible situation, demographically far worse then USA and the debt can never be controlled.   Japan holds 1 trillion of US debt, all these central banks are relying on each other but I think the system itself will give way.   So one of the main struts holding up US debt has serious problems sustaining itself.  Maybe crypto is part of a better system I dont know yet but its easily contestable what Jamie Dimon says about FIAT > crypto

https://youtu.be/40OuVyVGdIM?t=153

[TERA2]

I dont have a good idea what will happen from here - only that the old channel lines that are now at 2K and 3K (and will later be higher) will play a significant role and will either trigger the next bull run or will grind on it for 1-2 years before failing.

Thanks for sharing your opinion.

One objection I have to the second part of your reply is that trying to make out 1-2 years beyond now is probably a sterile exercise. The "real world" can push a lot, in either direction, during such a long time frame.

Lets face it, you're only here because you sold at 2k and you dream of getting back in close to what you sold for? Reveal yourself!

Are you asking me or Tera?

If it's me you're addressing, you're far from the truth. Very, very far.

Not that I would mind getting some coin at 2k... but not because I sold. And it's not a thing of today, or tomorrow.

I sold in small batches all the way through the entire rally. Yes some were in the 2Ks but it was only 10% of my coins. Then after we passed 5K I started trading altcoins and made many hugely successful altcoin trades. By the time we reached 20K I made back every coin I sold plus multiplied the entire stash by 3. I rather promptly sold most of my altcoin profits all in the teens. My biggest sell was at $18,800 - and I multipled all those profits with further daytrading during the bounces. At this point I've withdrawn a fortune in cash AND I still hold the original amount of bitcoins that Ive held since 2013, as if I never sold. So now I'm set for both outcomes of bitcoin whether it succeeds or fails and what I'm waiting for is to finally get everything off the exchanges and into cold storage so I can turn all the charts off and enter into ignore mode so I can take a nice break for a couple years again like I did in 2014 and 2015.