Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[RayX12]

judging from the posts on last 2 pages the bottom must be close. at least temporary

Maybe not!  Not enough blood and exploding whales.

[JayJuanGee]

My own guess is there is a 50% chance of it ever acheiving $20k, and then maybe not until 2020 at earliest.

You realize that statements like these are really conservative, and very long term bearish about bitcoin... which causes me to conclude that you have some lack of appreciation for bitcoin's potential upside.

I do agree with you that the higher the expected future price, the lower the probability that it is going to happen, but  it seems to me that when you use words like "ever" in your prediction, you are attempting to predict too many legs in a chain of future events that you have to be nearly completely speculating about since it is nearly impossible to accurately predict more than a few legs into the future at a time... and the further out you go the more any prediction is going to be based on a lot of factors currently unknown.

Hopefully your bearishness is not rubbing too much off into me... 

I entirely agree with you !

50% is the probability I am assigning. 'Ever' is not a prediction, just a part of one of the possibilities.

Of course, I omitted to say that another scenario (part of the other 50% if you like), is that $100k is achieved before 2022.

All these numbers and time frames are speculation, yes, and subject to evolving circumstance. That is what this thread is for.

Hopefully I can present ideas that give others food for thought, and also prevent ppl from making errors in trading by being too myopic. My apparent bearishness is only a comparitive with general bullishness, and the greatest mistake IMO would be too become too mentally committed to a bullish outlook (and thus disillusionment) when we are merely in a long bear market, which will eventually turn round.

Low predictions of $2-3k are merely realistic scenarios, and are helping to avoid the mental pain of HODling in a downtrand.

For some reason, your posts come off as describing and emphasizing the BTC downside and downplaying BTC upside scenarios.  Surely, when pressed, and even sometimes on your own volition you do mention that you are a long term BTC bull - while feeling compelled to "save us" from our own too much bullishness. 

Remember also that in much of 2017, you seem to have been distracted into a lot of alt coin postings, which causs me to conclude that you have been too much into believing that there is some kind of meaningful contributions and potential competition coming out of alt coin camps rather than the more likely scenario that a lot of them are distractions (the tail rather than the dog... meaning that bitcoin is the dog... and better to pay attention to the dog rather than the tail)... 

Anyhow, it could be helpful to go through a probability list of both upside and downside price scenarios, however, currently, I can concur that it is becoming more and more apparent that our current correction is lasting a bit longer than what I had thought to be likely - but such lasting BTC correction still does not mean that long and drawn out continued correction is inevitable, as you repeatedly assert... and sure, you could end up being correct, but that would not either mean that the long and drawn out downward scenario was inevitable or that you had somehow seen the future... 

Let's say, for example, that you had 10 bitcoins, and you decided to sell 8 of them int he $14k to $19k price arena, and you are waiting for $3k or below to buy them back.   I would think such a strategy to be gambling too much, even if such strategy ends up playing out, the odds don't seem too good.  Likely you have a bit of a more moderate strategy, and even if you sold some of your coins, I cannot recall you disclosing that you are playing with shorts, right? 

[d_eddie]

new lows

Well fuck boys, this is just starting to get depressing , I'm too emotionally drained to give a fuck anymore.

This is great though despite what I said. It's a nice and quick search for the bottom. No long grindy winter.

Quick only if it's found soon, which at this point I am not sure of.

EDIT - Maybe you can help the search by posting one of your famous V8-pics about searching for the bottom? (hint hint, nudge nudge).

[RejectedBanana]

These prices are such a gift, noobs just don't even know. It's prices like these that will fuel the next bull run with a whole fresh crop of speculators.

Back during the last bear market when we bottomed out around $200 from a high of $1200, who would have guessed people would next be whining about $6000 lows?

Boo fucking hoo. $6k coins.

BTFD, DCA, HODL. These terms haven't become cliche for no reason, fools.

[mindrust]

[vortex1878]

bitcoin is fucking dead
i believe it will go sub 2k soon

You are way too optimistic. It's headed to sub $1k levels.

Sauce?

Some very adcanced and complicated techincal analysis and mathematical methods which I can't disclose their names in a CIA infested forum like this.

Onto the ignore list you go

You got trolled, bro.  

[serbad]

Gox.

[eth9888]

These prices are such a gift, noobs just don't even know. It's prices like these that will fuel the next bull run with a whole fresh crop of speculators.

Back during the last bear market when we bottomed out around $200 from a high of $1200, who would have guessed people would next be whining about $6000 lows?

Boo fucking hoo. $6k coins.

BTFD, DCA, HODL. These terms haven't become cliche for no reason, fools.

lol.

[d_eddie]

bitcoin is fucking dead
i believe it will go sub 2k soon

You are way too optimistic. It's headed to sub $1k levels.

Sauce?

Some very adcanced and complicated techincal analysis and mathematical methods which I can't disclose their names in a CIA infested forum like this.

Onto the ignore list you go

You got trolled, bro.  

Yes. It seems like mindrust omitted an /s mark that looked superfluous. It wasn't.

[mindrust]

Yes. It seems like mindrust omitted an /s mark that looked superfluous. It wasn't.

Where is the fun If I put an /s every time I decide to troll. No. That's not fun.

Fun is making you doubt.

[serbad]

Yes. It seems like mindrust omitted an /s mark that looked superfluous. It wasn't.

Where is the fun If I put an /s every time I decide to troll. No. That's not fun.

Fun is making you doubt.

Game.

[d_eddie]

Yes. It seems like mindrust omitted an /s mark that looked superfluous. It wasn't.

Where is the fun If I put an /s every time I decide to troll. No. That's not fun.

Fun is making you doubt.

This. I wouldn't have /s'ed such a post myself, either.

[JayJuanGee]

my father is maybe one of the worst .... is as long in BTC as myself  never said anything good from 250-300 to 1500 allways bad feeling lot of sell offs ... than still with a very healthy amount in the bull rally to 20k "nothing is better than BTC" ... didn't sell a lot @ that time LOL     price goes down and panic sell offcourse around 8000-9000 lot off sideways from there and yesterday after the recent DIP he was sitting in the office chair saying to my brother BTC will never go back to higher prices and its finisht and.....

for many in here do not be my father in the BTC story   i am happy i am the biggest BTC bagholder @our place

You 're not alone... .

What I find freaking scary is that waiting for the now daily dump. And I have run out of fiat surplus that I had from the peak... . So my buying power is very limited. Dugh.

1) As far as family goes, I have several members that I have discussed bitcoin, since around $400 in late 2014, and really only one got in, in a kind of tepid way.  Other family members dabbled and even did not do very well with their methods... that deviated considerably from the methods that I suggested.  Even the one person who complied the best with my suggested method (with some deviation) did the best of the group by investing a mediocre amount.  Largely cashed out the whole of the investment, plus a bit.  Still has a considerable number of bitcoins (playing with house money... hahahahahaha).  The house money bitcoins is the most valuable of any of the person's investments, including real estate and 401ks, blah blah blah... Funny how it works out.

2) regarding running out of fiat. I kind of understand that position, but I don't think that it is a good practice to run out of fiat... If there is any cash flow coming in, then that fiat can be saved.. just in case there is more dip... On the other hand, there could be some luck that this largely $6500 support will hold or at least support at $6k will hold.. I tentatively believe the odds are a bit less than 50/50 for holding... but as we all know, we have already had about 3 or perhaps 4 tests of this price arena... and support does seem to be pretty strong around this area... which kind of makes the breaking of support scenario to be a bit more scary, if it were to happen.  Personally, I would rather NOT have to use any more of my fiat to continue to buy BTC on the way down.. so I would be perfectly happy with this price area holding.  Currently, I have pretty solid buy orders down to about $4k, but I would likely have to scramble if prices were to go below $4k to think about and to consider how to set up my buy orders with the current fiat reserves that I have.  Probably, I am not going to set up those buy orders until the price goes below $6k (that is if it does go below $6k.. so, certainly, I am in a kind of "compelled to watch" position right now.. and nervous for me an likely a lot of peeps - understandably especially for those who have already completely run out of fiat).

[JayJuanGee]

i don't at all doubt that you are well off.  You have been posting in this thread for some time now.  I am happy to hear that you are satisfied with the car you have chosen to carry you through this life.  I am looking for advices of the kinds of car that the bitcoin folks recommend (aside from the cliche laMBo!). currently drizing a handa CR-V.  Your thoughts appreciated!

What's the budget?

Hahahahha

it is doubtful that Junck dee monkey has any actual "budget" and seems to be merely playing with WO peeps with attempts at distraction topics.

[Wekkel]

I do not know about you but I see 'opportunities'.... 

[blacky90]

I do not know about you but I see 'opportunities'....  

what does this mean?

bitcoin is oversold?

[Ludwig Von]

2) regarding running out of fiat. I kind of understand that position, but I don't think that it is a good practice to run out of fiat... If there is any cash flow coming in, then that fiat can be saved.. just in case there is more dip... On the other hand, there could be some luck that this largely $6500 support will hold or at least support at $6k will hold.. I tentatively believe the odds are a bit less than 50/50 for holding... but as we all know, we have already had about 3 or perhaps 4 tests of this price arena... and support does seem to be pretty strong around this area... which kind of makes the breaking of support scenario to be a bit more scary, if it were to happen.  Personally, I would rather NOT have to use any more of my fiat to continue to buy BTC on the way down.. so I would be perfectly happy with this price area holding.  Currently, I have pretty solid buy orders down to about $4k, but I would likely have to scramble if prices were to go below $4k to think about and to consider how to set up my buy orders with the current fiat reserves that I have.  Probably, I am not going to set up those buy orders until the price goes below $6k (that is if it does go below $6k.. so, certainly, I am in a kind of "compelled to watch" position right now.. and nervous for me an likely a lot of peeps - understandably especially for those who have already completely run out of fiat).

I learn a lot from you JJG, but as every apprentice I do make mistakes.  Hoping to not repeat them, which is the hard part!

[Raja_MBZ]

I do not know about you but I see 'opportunities'....  

what does this mean?

This means:

1. register on Bitmex
2. deposit bitcoin
3. choose at least 10x leverage and go long (right now at $6500)
4. get your bitcoin doubled when bitcoin reaches $7500

[JayJuanGee]

Price evolution from here...

Your squiggly lines do look nice, toknormal... and they look reasonable too, with a possible additional 40% price dip from here until early 2019 - yet I doubt that bitcoin is as reasonable as you anticipate it to be.  Accordingly, the FUD spreading aspect of your chart remains.. as STRF asserted.. furthermore, even though you could get lucky and end up correct in your prediction, you seem to be asserting that it is going to take a bit over 2.5 years to again break above ATHs...  I am leaning with STRF in concluding that you are leaning more bearish than warranted.  Time will tell, correct?

TA for Bitcoin doesn't mean dick.

Tell that to the traders painting those charts.

Nothing other than T/A means "dick" when it comes to bitcoin. Fundamentals get priced in years in advance. Once that's done, all manipulation trading is done on buy & sell signals. Market doesn't care about direction. It makes money on the way up. Makes money on the way down. Hodlers are the only people who care about direction.

Hahahahahahaha.. .Here you show your stupid-ass obsession with TA in bitcoin...

Actually, I agree that good traders make money on the way up and down (or at least they figure out ways to take advantage of volatility), but that mere fact does not mean that either TA controls or that TA is not used to sucker less experienced traders into selling when they should either be holding or buying.

[Wekkel]

what does this mean?

bitcoin is oversold?

It means potential oversold on the weekly. But you can also say it is catchin' falling knives. Price could drop $1,000 in an instant now but the very broad perspective presented in the chart may lessen our current fears.