Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gyrsur]

so $8254.3 in my chart was a high. it goes down a bit now. I should have closed the long. but to late.  

EDIT: I'm not good in discretionary approaches really. I need simple rules which I can write into code and then let the machine trade and just observing and improving.

Decisions such as these can't be coded into a bot. Or if they can, I have no clue. Or maybe I have a clue but just can't spill the beans for obvious reasons  

What you can do is program a bot to set up complex conditional orders - which can be a real help as long as your connection to the exchange is steady, which in turn isn't a safe assumption with all the verlakkerij that's going on.

A few examples of complex conditional order:

- if the long suffers more than 10% from here, cash out 20% of the short

- if she goes down >100$, increase the long a bit and tighten its stop loss by 15$ while cashing out the btc equivalent of 200$ from the short (maybe to finance the increased long and keep your staked margin in check)

- if after going down >150$ (but <300$), she heads back up, cancel these 3 orders I put there in case of disaster

yeah Eddie! this sound like a start on very complex framework as you mentioned it to fillippone. i really wondering that you're able to manage all the positions just with the help of your mind and without a computer. this is really a task for a machine. it can handle it without errors if well coded.

[d_eddie]

so $8254.3 in my chart was a high. it goes down a bit now. I should have closed the long. but to late.  

I don't know the numbers, and each one of us is different, but I'd keep the long open if the entry point is within the current range. With shorts I'm much more draconian. In the mean time, cash out part of the short! If you manage to make them equal you're net green and you can wrap it up if you feel unsure.

[Gyrsur]

thanks Eddie! and I'm unfortunately out of sMerit. you deserves some!

I got you!

thank you LFC!   #nohomo

[El duderino_]

indeed, my 15k hat feels so uncomfortable... I feel like changing it at times but I'm afraid it will capitulate the price to new lows, so I'm taking one for the team.

 Thank you d_eddie!  We appreciate your hard work and dedication.  Stay focused.   

Counts for both of you brothers

[d_eddie]

so $8254.3 in my chart was a high. it goes down a bit now. I should have closed the long. but to late.  

EDIT: I'm not good in discretionary approaches really. I need simple rules which I can write into code and then let the machine trade and just observing and improving.

A few examples of complex conditional order:

- if the long suffers more than 10% from here, cash out 20% of the short

-snip-

yeah Eddie! this sound like a start on very complex framework as you mentioned it to fillippone. i really wondering that you're able to manage all the positions just with the help of your mind and without a computer. this is really a task for a machine. it can handle it without errors if well coded.

I was actually just making it up. These are the thought processes I follow while I trade double positions, but it sounds harder than it is, and I can't actually manage do do it all in reality. This is a hobby, I have a life. It's all very SOMA. I use no bot yet. I make do with a simple calculator and an excel sheet for more complicated calculations: averages (trickier than it seems with inverse derivatives) and projections ("what if she goes up $300?" "what if she plummets $400?")

[Gyrsur]

so $8254.3 in my chart was a high. it goes down a bit now. I should have closed the long. but to late.  

I don't know the numbers, and each one of us is different, but I'd keep the long open if the entry point is within the current range. With shorts I'm much more draconian. In the mean time, cash out part of the short! If you manage to make them equal you're net green and you can wrap it up if you feel unsure.

thanks Eddie. I have to quit now. so much time spend today again with WO sisters and brothers!   #nohomo

[Dabs]

@Dabs, this feels like home doesn't it?

For a good ... almost entire year (maybe even 2 or 3) ... this is where I lurk and post, while doing other stuff in other threads unrelated and just minding my own business ... whatever sig I have doesn't even count in this particular thread ... then try to do one small act of kindness to some random newbie who probably has no clue what a merit is and people think I'm abusing merit.

[El duderino_]

Who sold at the bottom?

YOU

[El duderino_]

Who sold at the bottom?

Roach 🤪

Naaaah, his to busy with fighting JJG at the moment...

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I wander out of this thread for a little bit, then I get crucified. Back to Observing the Wall. Much nicer in here.

Yeah, this is by far the best, friendliest thread on the entire forum. I’ve actually met & made some RL friends in this thread.

[El duderino_]

I wander out of this thread for a little bit, then I get crucified. Back to Observing the Wall. Much nicer in here.

[El duderino_]

We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market. 

This is a good point. There are some skills you can transfer to other markets, but crypto is special.

I see we got ourself an *sshole and an underaged person (child on the thread??)

*strongly recommend to change your behavior when posting on the WALL, thread us with the respect we all earned and deserve, when you have some rangs in here then maybe start with joking etc

[Elwar]

I hadn't been following this closely for a while, but the class action complaint against Tether/BitFinex makes things look pretty bad for them... How important are they to the current ecosystem at this point? How much has the risk of Finex+USDT going the way of MtGox already been priced in?

The complaint doesn't completely convince me that Finex was printing USDT to manipulate prices, though it's certainly possible. I've been skeptical of USDT's backing for a long time. If they weren't manipulating, then the whole matter looks like the US government stole their money and then turned around and said, "Now you're operating at fractional reserve, so you're fraudulent!"

Reading through it shows just how hard it has been for Bitfinex/Tether to maintain a bank account with so many governments and banks getting in their way.

I do not know who the Plaintiffs are but I assume they are butthurt bcash and shitcoin holders who are mad that Bitcoin won the split war due to the value rising. "Tether’s monopoly power allows it to raise prices and exclude competition within the cryptocurrency market."

They provide zero evidence, all circumstantial about correlations between the price going up and the release of Tether, including times that they had difficulty with their banks but they assume that those banks were their only path of getting funds. As someone who lives outside of the US and has to deal with these shitty banks, you figure out ways to move money in non-traditional ways (completely legally).

It is more a study in how much KYC/AML laws are shit and everyone needs to just get all of their money into bitcoin already so they don't have to deal with that bullshit.

[fillippone]

I wander out of this thread for a little bit, then I get crucified. Back to Observing the Wall. Much nicer in here.

WO is a family: what you give returns to you 10x.
Give respect, have respect in return.
Give a laughter, return laughter.
Need support, receive support.
Actually, better than a family.

[Fatman3001]

wut da fuk?

[Icygreen]

https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1181316649133182977

I'd bet more people understand how the bitcoin network works than how the Federal Reserve does.

Central banking is complex to hide the truth.

Bitcoin is simple to show the truth.

It's by design.

This dood's on point in every tweet. Bot?

[Raja_MBZ]

https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1181316649133182977

I'd bet more people understand how the bitcoin network works than how the Federal Reserve does.

Central banking is complex to hide the truth.

Bitcoin is simple to show the truth.

It's by design.

This dood's on point in every tweet. Bot?

Maybe he's just trying to become the next Pomp?

Pomp became pretty famous by just tweeting pretty much the same stuff with a new taste again & again.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1181316649133182977

I'd bet more people understand how the bitcoin network works than how the Federal Reserve does.

Central banking is complex to hide the truth.

Bitcoin is simple to show the truth.

It's by design.

This dood's on point in every tweet. Bot?

Maybe he's just trying to become the next Pomp?

Pomp became pretty famous by just tweeting pretty much the same stuff with a new taste again & again.

He did became famous cause of that, but some people just need it to first gain there interest.....

[Biodom]

*incoherent ranting*

Yes.  About a year and a half ago, pretty much Hairy admitted that he was relying on fractal comparisons, and surely I have been vocally critical of such fractal comparison reliances, even though they have largely been playing out - with, of course, some upwards deviation with our 3.5x outburst from April 1 to end of June, and currently what appears to be a return to the mean of the fractal... So whatever the fuck lack of comparison seems to still be working out in a very comparable way.


So, maybe there has never been such a system in the world, but who fucking cares?  It still has worked out quite well in bitcoin for a lot of us BTC HODLers and accumulators to be continuing to become richie and to increase our richness through the fact that BTC prices continue to go up in the longer term.. just like the silly fucking ass fractal comparisons seem to suggest.  Go figure?  

Now you roach, on the other hand, have had some mediocre gold price appreciation during this calendar year (which has gotten you all excited, and even a bit more cocky than usual), and maybe you should be taking advantage of that mediocre gold price appreciation and getting into a real future asset.. ie bitcoin?  dumb ass.

There is no TA comparison in legacy financial markets because there is no comparable asset in legacy financial markets.

There is no financial instrument with fixed supply to be paid out over a century where the rate of supply halves every four years as regular as the Olympics.  It is this regular drum beat that causes us to pound out the same patterns.  Yes the drum beat will get weaker over time as inflation falls away, but it is strong now and will remain strong through this halvening and likely the next.

I have spoken to investment bankers at Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan who do TA on Bitcoin and in their arrogance they have never heard of the halvening.   So they can’t plan for it and they can’t front run it.   Even among retail investors, most of whom are focused on chasing shitcoins, they have no understanding of how the entire market is run by the drum beat of Daddy Bitcoin.

We sit in a privileged position because we live and breathe this every day.  But don’t make the mistake of extrapolating our knowledge and experience to the broader market.  

I agree that we have halving knowledge, but here comes the test...
If this time around halving and S/F extension to above 50 (closer to gold) would produce 55K-90K prices (conservatively), THEN our position was truly privileged. If not, then it is still mostly random fluctuation. I hope for the former and I am keenly aware of the latter.

Most of you were probably not around the Internet bubble 1. In 1997-2000 it was simply great. No matter what you bought (out of major and even minor Internet stocks), you were doing great. Then came B2B Internet stocks and early biotechs (with no product) that inflated to tens of billions almost from the get go.
Anyone investing in these stocks has seen only a tremendous bull.
Then it all crashed (even AMZN -from $100 to $5).
If you look at the charts of the Internet stocks during 1997-2000, they looked peachy and projected fundamentals (at least of  AMZN, EBAy, etc) were even better than expected. Still everything crashed.

Granted, those stocks did not have a 'halving engine' beneath them and maybe this would be a critical factor.
However, litecoin (not bitcoin) has similar halving process, yet it crashed very badly AFTER undergoing halving recently (albeit it was rising toward halving). Maybe it does not count because it is a minor coin, but arguing that halving works only on one entity is presumptuous.

TL;DR The upcoming halving would be a huge test of the 'halving engine' and S/F guideline idea. Fingers crossed.

[fragout]

Walls Walls Everywhere. A rarish sight having a wall on both sides of the orderbook.