Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[makrospex]

Observing $8.180 after breakfast.

MA10 refusing to cross MA50 (1h,4h), BB narrowing, volume low.
Time for a move, imo.

Up or down?

I expected $6500. And there is still time for that. But as I see it, we don't have to go down there.

In short, idk.

Either way I'll just hodl on.

Actually, i'd welcome sideways and small dips, as well as short pumps at the time. I took a very small percentage of my (few) BTC to trade against some alts (having an actual usecase at least) that spit me out some satoshis for a small present to someone special. Otherwise also longtime hodling, as usual.

[Gyrsur]

Hmmm, the version "Go fuck yourself Fatman" was also deleted. So, not a program deleting.
Then who is it? Show yourself!

why don't u just stop with the childish behavior and spam ?


I guess losing money gets to u.


Looking to short in the 8.7k area but fear the bulls are to impotent to even try and hit my orders.

Have you already closed the short that you had opened at $8,420?  smartie pants.

Hope you all enjoy the bear market.

I'll come long some $BTC with you in 2020.


https://ibb.co/qsrtNNB

Mmm so in a few weeks??

$BTC to range
$alts to hit major resistances above
$BTC scam pump to $8.7 - $9k
$alts retrace to demand
You long $BTC
I short $BTC
You short $alts
I long $alts
You poor
I rich

Ok, you made one precise call at 8,420 and you're ready to make some more calls? You sir are on your way to fame and fortune for sure! As I understand you're short until 2020 or are you long now to 8.7K, I forget.
I'm always long BTC. I don't gamble or play with fire. Rich for me is not measured in $ or BTC but health, time, loved ones, and a positive attitude, open to change. You're attitude suggests that BTC is merely about money and capitalizing for your own wealth and recognition.
Am I wrong?

Protect the weekly candle u fools.

Trimmed my 8420 short because i expect the weekly close to pump(Maybe even retest 8.7/9k).

But my charts are clear.

$BTC Daily Renko.

Downtrend in full swing, retested, short any bounce.




https://ibb.co/thTMT5S

just a troll. 

[El duderino_]

1/ 
@filbfilb
 called BTC’s bear market bottom 12 months in advance — before the bull market even finished!

His words on Dec 4, 2017: “I would lean towards 3k”.

His take on what comes next (and why) is fascinating.


https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734402616909826?s=20

2/  First: how was
@filbfilb
 so on-point?

He focused on one metric: estimated cost of mining production.

He layed it all out in March, 2018: est. cost of production's price range bottoms out at $3170.

9 months later, $BTC bottomed out at $3148.

https://tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3eCM0tWa-What-Satoshi-said-about-price-action/


https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734420358807554?s=20

3/  Why is production so relevant?

Miners are natural sellers — they drive supply more than anyone else.

But their incentive to sell vanishes below the cost of production.

Institutions and smart money knew it, and were ready. Retail was mostly unaware.
https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734424737652739?s=20


https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734430324469760?s=20

5/ $BTC's bottom doesn't *have* to track mining's production cost floor.

But it did.

Just like it did in 2015, the last time BTC hit bottom.

I had a hard time finding more historic production cost data -- LMK if you know where to find some.


https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734439191232512?s=20

6/ Here's my suspicion:

$BTC's logarithmic channel bottom *is* a rolling average of mining's production cost floor.

I can't prove this, my sample size is too small, and I'm wide open to being proven wrong.

But the data we have tells a very specific story.


https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734457767858176?s=20

7/  It’s been 9 months since we bottomed, and miner's nominal production cost hasn’t changed much.

But Bitmain & friends aren't fools, they know the block reward will halve in May.

That's priced into their bottom line by now.
https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734460498288640?s=20

8/  Production cost doubles when the block reward halves. That makes $6340 the new floor.

Smart money knows it, again. Retail has no clue, again.

(Lots of longs in the right place, for the wrong reasons).


https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734462494822401?s=20

9/  That doesn’t mean price will reach the $6400 region — but
@filbfilb
 makes a case for it.

Big miners have incentive to drive $BTC price back to its production cost.

They’d love to dish out max pain one more time before the bull market steamrolls forward out of control.
https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734464638144513?s=20

10/  Why? Low prices drive less efficient competitors out of business — one miner's capitulation is another man's market share.


https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734491758497792?s=20

11/  That’s
@filbfilb
's take. Here’s mine:

Every bull market is preceded by a terminal shakeout.

It’s a spring — one last higher timeframe stop run before the parabolic advance gets started.


https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734508095250432?s=20

12/  Last cycle the terminal shakeout preceded BTC's accumulation range breakout.

We never got one this time.

I think we’re in the process of getting it now, and I think it’s healthy for the bull longterm.

13/  I think this is the last time we'll ever see $BTC below $10k.

But I also think we need to revisit liquidity in last year’s Eternal Range before we can make a run at ATHs.
https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734512826503168?s=20

14/  The longer prices stay low, the more inefficient mining operations go under.

The more weak hands who bought above $10k get shaken out.

The $6400 region could get frontrun.

But a long bottoming process (measured in months) is just as likely. Or both.


https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734527980445697?s=20

15/  Institutions, hedge funds & state actors would love to re-accumulate at those levels.

Their incentives align with Big Mining. For now.
https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734531730214918?s=20

16/ 
@filbfilb
 thinks a pullback to resistance around $9500 is a possibility.

IMO it could be a nice opportunity to hedge short. Or sell spot & rebuy lower. 

(Be careful -- never go all out, or all in.)

 A daily close above $10k invalidates this IMO.


https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734543151239168?s=20

17/  If you’ve been waiting patiently to buy $BTC, $6400 - $7500 is a great buyzone.

If we get there, the drop could happen fast.

Doubt might creep in. This happens by design.

Scarce asset ownership is a zero-sum game -- you might not get a second chance at sub-7k prices.


https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734556573032449?s=20

18/ If none of this happens, it’s bullish for $BTC.

If all of it happens, it’s just another guidepost along our path through BTC’s market cycle.

Either way I’m super bullish.

And your patience will *so* be rewarded.
https://twitter.com/ColeGarnerBTC/status/1181734559362273280?s=20

[realr0ach]

Jewish propaganda just doesn't work like it used to:

https://dailystormer.name/yikes-italian-authorities-investigate-effigy-of-greta-thunberg-hanging-by-a-noose-from-a-bridge-in-rome/

[Arriemoller]

Oh, and by the way, it's not me that's childish, it's you that's a turd.

[realr0ach]

Trollgoossen copy and paste post as usual

That post contradicts itself because a lot of it is the same thing I say concerning Bitcoin cost of production, and it's simply not possible for the cost of production to go up an order of magnitude or higher making it use more power than the entire United States to allow these stupidly high prices people claim.  So get ready for disappointment and the failure of Bitcoin growth which will probably cause the entire Ponzi scheme to unravel.

[bitcoinPsycho]

Roach your so desperate but no one GIVES a shit about your opinion.  So funny .you weak and out of date. Go fuck yourself. I know you secretly have Jewish roots

[tranthidung]

It is a little delayed-update, but I think it is interesting for WO-citizens.

Update:

ABSTRACT

(1) Last two months, Bitcoin fell ~14% in price, while figures for total replies, total pages, total views between last two periods (31/7/2019-31-8/2019 and 31/8/2019-30/9/2019) fell 23.7%, 23.2%, and 23.8%, respectively.  (Details, please see in the last table in the bottom of the post).
(2) In medians, figures for monthly new replies, views, and pages are 428941, 54258 and 269, respectively

Data source (from @VB1001):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52028093#msg52028093
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52029308#msg52029308
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52325977#msg52325977
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52614459#msg52614459

Converted dataset:

Code:

. list id day month2 year date rep repchange prep2 views viewchange pview2 pages pagechange ppages2 btc pbtc, abb(30)

     +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     | id   day   month2   year        date      rep   repchange    prep2      views   viewchange   pview2   pages   pagechange   ppages2     btc     pbtc |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |  1    31       10   2017   31oct2017   361446           .        .   19386138            .        .   18703            .         .    6380        . |
  2. |  2    30       11   2017   30nov2017   368288        6842        .   19749672       363534        .   18415         -288         .    9786    53.39 |
  3. |  3    31       12   2017   31dec2017   380800       12512    82.87   20076512       326840   -10.09   19041          626         .   13186    34.74 |
  4. |  4    31        1   2018   31jan2018   386480        5680    -54.6   20118498        41986   -87.15   19325          284    -54.63   10138   -23.12 |
  5. |  5    28        2   2018   28feb2018   396480       10000    76.06   20185277        66779    59.05   19825          500     76.06   10629     4.84 |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. |  6    31        3   2018   31mar2018   402460        5980    -40.2   20222795        37518   -43.82   20109          284     -43.2    7119   -33.02 |
  7. |  7    30        4   2018   30apr2018   407457        4997   -16.44   20247143        24348    -35.1   20288          179    -36.97    9275    30.29 |
  8. |  8    31        5   2018   31may2018   410507        3050   -38.96   20280891        33748    38.61   20526          238     32.96    7559    -18.5 |
  9. |  9    30        6   2018   30jun2018   416730        6223   104.03   20315481        34590     2.49   20787          261      9.66    6457   -14.58 |
 10. | 10    31        7   2018   31jul2018   419443        2713    -56.4   20341078        25597      -26   20975          188    -27.97    7848    21.54 |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 11. | 11    31        8   2018   31aug2018   424622        5179     90.9   20413924        72846   184.59   21132          157    -16.49    6935   -11.63 |
 12. | 12    30        9   2018   30sep2018   426942        2320    -55.2   20474102        60178   -17.39   21288          156      -.64    6633    -4.35 |
 13. | 13    30       10   2018   30oct2018   430939        3997    72.28   20650285       176183   192.77   21447          159      1.92    6642      .14 |
 14. | 14    30       11   2018   30nov2018   437199        6260    56.62   20782977       132692   -24.69   21810          363     128.3    4015   -39.55 |
 15. | 15    31       12   2018   31dec2018   446510        9311    48.74   20926425       143448     8.11   22296          486     33.88    3800    -5.35 |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 16. | 16    31        1   2019   31jan2019   452916        6406    -31.2   21006158        79733   -44.42   22563          267    -45.06    3459    -8.97 |
 17. | 17    28        2   2019   28feb2019   459605        6689     4.42   21042628        36470   -54.26   22974          411     53.93    3901    12.78 |
 18. | 18    31        3   2019   31mar2019   465823        6218    -7.04   21079099        36471        0   23292          318    -22.63    4103     5.18 |
 19. | 19    30        4   2019   30apr2019   473225        7402    19.04   21133357        54258    48.77   23662          370     16.35    5270    28.44 |
 20. | 20    31        5   2019   31may2019   480783        7558     2.11   21193583        60226       11   24040          378      2.16    8501    61.31 |
     |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 21. | 21    30        6   2019   30jun2019   488192        7409    -1.97   21256108        62525     3.82   24410          370     -2.12   11262    32.48 |
 22. | 22    31        7   2019   31jul2019   493567        5375   -27.45   21307690        51582    -17.5   24679          269     -27.3   10052   -10.74 |
 23. | 23    31        8   2019   31aug2019   497611        4044   -24.76   21343127        35437    -31.3   24881          202    -24.91    9605    -4.45 |
 24. | 24    30        8   2019   30aug2019   502612        5001    23.66   21386769        43642    23.15   25131          250     23.76    8247   -14.14 |
     +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Notes on variables:
- rep: total replies
- repchange: change of total replies between two months
- prep2: percent of change in rep (replies) between two continuous months.

- views: total views
- viewchange: change of total views between two months
- pview2: percent of change in total views (views) between two continuous months.

- pages: total pages
- pagechange: change of total pages between two months
- ppages2: percent of change in total pages (pages) between two continuous months.

- btc: BTC price
- pbtc: percent of change in BTC price (btc) between two continuous months.
Since this update, I use new variables, pview2, prep2, ppages2, because variables for percentage of changes between two months in OP look stupid, so I decided to change.
Now, let I explain the formula for variable prep2:
To make it simple, I have a simple dataset like:

Code:

month rep repchange prep2
1 10 na na
2 50 40 na
3 80 30 x

How to calculate x?
x = (80-50)/(50-10)*100
It means I calculate percentage of changes in two period: period 1 (from month 1 to month 2), period 2 (from month 2 to month 3)


Results:
Period of observations (23 months, Oct. 2017 - 30^th Sep. 2019)

In medians, figures for monthly new replies, views, and pages are 6221, 57218 and 277, respectively

Code:

. tabstat rep repchange viewchange pagechange, s(n mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max) c(s)

    variable |         N      mean        sd       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         rep |        24  434609.9  41774.22  428940.5  404958.5    469524    361446    502612
   repchange |        23  6137.652  2344.077      6218      4997      7402      2320     12512
  viewchange |        23  86983.96  90363.87     54258     36470     79733     24348    363534
  pagechange |        23  279.4783  172.9043       269       188       370      -288       626
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Plots

Code:

. list id day month2 year date prep2 pview2 ppages2 pbtc, abb(30)

     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+
     | id   day   month2   year        date    prep2   pview2   ppages2     pbtc |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  1. |  1    31       10   2017   31oct2017        .        .         .        . |
  2. |  2    30       11   2017   30nov2017        .        .         .    53.39 |
  3. |  3    31       12   2017   31dec2017    82.87   -10.09         .    34.74 |
  4. |  4    31        1   2018   31jan2018    -54.6   -87.15    -54.63   -23.12 |
  5. |  5    28        2   2018   28feb2018    76.06    59.05     76.06     4.84 |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  6. |  6    31        3   2018   31mar2018    -40.2   -43.82     -43.2   -33.02 |
  7. |  7    30        4   2018   30apr2018   -16.44    -35.1    -36.97    30.29 |
  8. |  8    31        5   2018   31may2018   -38.96    38.61     32.96    -18.5 |
  9. |  9    30        6   2018   30jun2018   104.03     2.49      9.66   -14.58 |
 10. | 10    31        7   2018   31jul2018    -56.4      -26    -27.97    21.54 |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 11. | 11    31        8   2018   31aug2018     90.9   184.59    -16.49   -11.63 |
 12. | 12    30        9   2018   30sep2018    -55.2   -17.39      -.64    -4.35 |
 13. | 13    30       10   2018   30oct2018    72.28   192.77      1.92      .14 |
 14. | 14    30       11   2018   30nov2018    56.62   -24.69     128.3   -39.55 |
 15. | 15    31       12   2018   31dec2018    48.74     8.11     33.88    -5.35 |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 16. | 16    31        1   2019   31jan2019    -31.2   -44.42    -45.06    -8.97 |
 17. | 17    28        2   2019   28feb2019     4.42   -54.26     53.93    12.78 |
 18. | 18    31        3   2019   31mar2019    -7.04        0    -22.63     5.18 |
 19. | 19    30        4   2019   30apr2019    19.04    48.77     16.35    28.44 |
 20. | 20    31        5   2019   31may2019     2.11       11      2.16    61.31 |
     |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|
 21. | 21    30        6   2019   30jun2019    -1.97     3.82     -2.12    32.48 |
 22. | 22    31        7   2019   31jul2019   -27.45    -17.5     -27.3   -10.74 |
 23. | 23    31        8   2019   31aug2019   -24.76    -31.3    -24.91    -4.45 |
 24. | 24    30        8   2019   30aug2019    23.66    23.15     23.76   -14.14 |
     +---------------------------------------------------------------------------+

[fillippone]

The clock is ticking
activity is growing
I am now hero(*)



(*)Haiku

[El duderino_]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188987.msg52700639#msg52700639

^
Please take a vote if interested

[El duderino_]

The clock is ticking
activity is growing
I am now hero(*)



(*)Haiku

Deserved promotion
A wel established member
Soon to be LEGEND

Though the road is long
Activity is a bitch
Keep writing content


(*)Haiku attempt

[Last of the V8s]

congrats to fillip, a true hero.

now legendaries on the other hand, seems like they let any old rifraf in:


https://i.imgur.com/d6O8jdU.mp4

anyone else get promoted?


no but seriously congrats to FairlyMcHairy love you man no homo

[HairyMaclairy]

Buulllllsshhheeeet. 


I thought you were pulling my leg and wasted 20 minutes looking for rude gifs. 

And then I thought to actually check my profile.   Dammmm. 

I guess I can sit at the big boys table now. 

[realr0ach]

There's no hope for JayJuanGee
He speaks in tongues
Walls of text block out the sun
Even devils run
The crooked Bitcoin young

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

I see gang bang #Fatman 🤪
Why?
Did he sold under $8k?

[El duderino_]

Buulllllsshhheeeet. 


I thought you were pulling my leg and wasted 20 minutes looking for rude gifs. 

And then I thought to actually check my profile.   Dammmm. 

I guess I can sit at the big boys table now. 

Dammit you got me.... I really was waiting to post

Aaaah Hairy now you can claim your seat at the Legendary table when we meet again......

F*** me, now i'm the last one in rank again, you out-activity-perform me....

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

By the way, almost forgot
Good afternoon WO!
Observing @ $8,176

[Dabs]

Oy. Grats @HairyMaclairy  ... it took awhile.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Buulllllsshhheeeet. 


I thought you were pulling my leg and wasted 20 minutes looking for rude gifs. 

And then I thought to actually check my profile.   Dammmm. 

I guess I can sit at the big boys table now. 

Dammit you got me.... I really was waiting to post

Aaaah Hairy now you can claim your seat at the Legendary table when we meet again......

F*** me, now i'm the last one in rank again, you out-activity-perform me....

But the highest in Merit?

[Oxstone]

-Snip-

Thanks man. That was fucking interesting.

I'm long for a pullback to 9500$. Then short to 6500 I guess.