Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[MusaPk]

https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1608086703843180544

Devil is in the details.
for the first time they actually sold some Bitcoin!

That's a big number. Does this in anyway impact decentralization nature of bitcoin?

[1714530147]

1714530147

[1714530147]

1714530147

[Torque]

OT: I had a cocky neighbor that rushed into building a very expensive second garage project during 2020-2021, when lumber and materials prices went 4X.

I spoke to him last year, and he said to me "Well ya know, lumber prices are never going to return to what they were (pre-Covid era). Because inflation."

Just checked. Lumber prices are back to 2016-2017 levels:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/lumber-price?op=1

Oops.

[JayJuanGee]

However since shahzadafzal didn't answer my proposal for a bet yet, I was hesitant to poke the next guy with a bet, as I'm by no means a betting person and I didn't want to come off as one... 

That was a bet? I mean that was just a sarcastic smiley.. look..

Regardless of who you support, I think we can all agree (except for the odd alpaca) that BTC should have made a new ATH by the latter.

First Quarter of 2023

[edited out]

[edited out]

[edited out]

[edited out]

[edited out]

Well regarding the poll I voted for 2024.....[edited out]....First of all, like I said I'm against betting so I'm not betting either for the first quarter of 2023 nor end of 2024. Please don't take me wrong.

Second, frankly speaking we both know there's almost no chance of breaking ATH in 2023 let alone the first quarter of 2023. Yeah I want BTC to reach ATH sooner but current market reality and looming financial crisis won't let it happen any soon. 2023 will be the cooling period for BTC and we might reach ATH mid or late 2024.

You seem to be bouncing around a lot in your bitcoin price projection ideas shahzadafzal.  You had first asserted that there would be a new ATH in 1st quarter 2023.. and then now you are proclaiming that an ATH is not even likely in 2023 at all.   Strange that.

Personally, I believe that it is not very likely to get an ATH in the first quarter of 2023, and even it may well be a stretch to get an ATH in either the 2nd quarter or the 3rd quarter of 2023, so in that regard, I guess my framework would be that the longer the timeline, the more the odds for an ATH happening go up.

Yes, we are quite a stretch depressed from our November 2021 ATH of $69k, so in that regard, several resistance points (and even incentives to take profits on the way up) have likely established themselves between our current price and that $69k price.

Personally, I hate to lock-in too many specific bitcoin price performance frameworks that I expect to be possible to play out, so in that regard, I remain quite hesitant to be poo-pooing the various ways in which BTC's price performance can be manipulated in ways that those who are able to either manipulate or take advantage of situations are able to push the price in order to potentially reck the most other people. 

In other words, I am not going to write off 2023... and surely many of us likely realize that we don't even need any kind of new ATH to be in a profitable place.. including even getting stuck in the $20ks for the whole of 2023 is not really going to be very painful for a large number of the longer term HODLers who have already figured out a variety of ways that they need not sell more BTC, they may well be fine with just continuing to accumulate BTC at whatever price below the $69k price point.. so whether BTC price trickle upwardly or bounce around violently between $14k and $50k, there may not be too many significant and/or meaningful changes from the longer term HODLers.. except maybe the recent lesson of keeping lower and lower percentages of the overall BTC stash on exchanges and/or with third parties.

So probably my BIGGEST gripe with your seemingly waffling around shahzadafzal is that in this most recent waffling post, you seem to be putting too much emphasis on the "it's not going to happen" proclamation when it is likely that the possible scenarios in bitcoinlandia are quite a bit broader than the seemingly specific assertions attempts that you have been making.

[AlcoHoDL]

 Apparently there are 3 prevailing theories for the direction of BTC.
 1 BTC tanks further and doesn't recover to a new ATH until 2028
 2 BTC has bottomed and we make a new ATH at the end of 2024 and peak bull in 2025 (traditional cycle) *
 3 BTC hasn't bottomed (a black swan event causes further declines) but we still make a new ATH at the end of 2024 and peak bull in 2025 (traditional cycle with a near death experience? lol)

* bitboy's prediction.


 It's a lot of sideways and maybe some down followed by some up.  
 HODL

I think scenario 2 or 3 are most likely. I’m leaning towards scenario 3, I think more pain due to the situation the world financial markets are in. The US haven’t even admitted we’re in a recession yet.

I agree. Scenarios 2 and 3 are the most probable, with 3 being the one I'm preparing myself for. As for the years he mentions (for 2 and 3), I believe they are spot on (i.e., ATH in late 2024 and mega-bull in 2025). Scenario 1's ATH/bull of 2029-2030 is far too bearish and will be a total break from the 4-year cycle.

We are talking about 2-3 years of waiting, which is nothing really. And if scenario 3 is the one that plays out, 2023 will be the perfect year to accumulate cheap corn.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[macson]

And finally, there always be plenty of morons to trust other liars with their money, creating a cluster of ponzis which will collapse in the same way as FTX, Almeida, 3AC, terra, etc.

"ponzi" isnt what this seems to have been.

 this is just time tested and traditional olde skool embezzlement. "sometimes old tricks are the best tricks"

Ponzi is the best and easiest scam scheme to make money and FTX and their other shit project, had great success making huge money for SBF and his scam team.

Twitter

FOMO everywhere and the cycle will never go away

[shahzadafzal]

However since shahzadafzal didn't answer my proposal for a bet yet, I was hesitant to poke the next guy with a bet, as I'm by no means a betting person and I didn't want to come off as one...  

That was a bet? I mean that was just a sarcastic smiley.. look..

Regardless of who you support, I think we can all agree (except for the odd alpaca) that BTC should have made a new ATH by the latter.

First Quarter of 2023

[edited out]

[edited out]

[edited out]

[edited out]

[edited out]

Well regarding the poll I voted for 2024.....[edited out]....First of all, like I said I'm against betting so I'm not betting either for the first quarter of 2023 nor end of 2024. Please don't take me wrong.

Second, frankly speaking we both know there's almost no chance of breaking ATH in 2023 let alone the first quarter of 2023. Yeah I want BTC to reach ATH sooner but current market reality and looming financial crisis won't let it happen any soon. 2023 will be the cooling period for BTC and we might reach ATH mid or late 2024.

You seem to be bouncing around a lot in your bitcoin price projection ideas shahzadafzal.  You had first asserted that there would be a new ATH in 1st quarter 2023.. and then now you are proclaiming that an ATH is not even likely in 2023 at all.   Strange that.

Personally, I believe that it is not very likely to get an ATH in the first quarter of 2023, and even it may well be a stretch to get an ATH in either the 2nd quarter or the 3rd quarter of 2023, so in that regard, I guess my framework would be that the longer the timeline, the more the odds for an ATH happening go up.

Yes, we are quite a stretch depressed from our November 2021 ATH of $69k, so in that regard, several resistance points (and even incentives to take profits on the way up) have likely established themselves between our current price and that $69k price.

Personally, I hate to lock-in too many specific bitcoin price performance frameworks that I expect to be possible to play out, so in that regard, I remain quite hesitant to be poo-pooing the various ways in which BTC's price performance can be manipulated in ways that those who are able to either manipulate or take advantage of situations are able to push the price in order to potentially reck the most other people.  

In other words, I am not going to write off 2023... and surely many of us likely realize that we don't even need any kind of new ATH to be in a profitable place.. including even getting stuck in the $20ks for the whole of 2023 is not really going to be very painful for a large number of the longer term HODLers who have already figured out a variety of ways that they need not sell more BTC, they may well be fine with just continuing to accumulate BTC at whatever price below the $69k price point.. so whether BTC price trickle upwardly or bounce around violently between $14k and $50k, there may not be too many significant and/or meaningful changes from the longer term HODLers.. except maybe the recent lesson of keeping lower and lower percentages of the overall BTC stash on exchanges and/or with third parties.

Well well again like I mentioned earlier when I said "ATH in the first quarter of 2023"... it was not a price prediction. I don't know how Gachapin took it so seriously

I tried to clarify it here

Btw since BitcoinBunny mentioned alpaca aka llama, I was poking this singing llama with that comment

Because we haven't seen proudhon for quite sometime with his sarcastic price predictions on WO, that comment was basically for him.

So probably my BIGGEST gripe with your seemingly waffling around shahzadafzal is that in this most recent waffling post, you seem to be putting too much emphasis on the "it's not going to happen" proclamation when it is likely that the possible scenarios in bitcoinlandia are quite a bit broader than the seemingly specific assertions attempts that you have been making.

To be honest you have to be skyptecial when predicting BTC price... even if this price prediction is coming with proofs based on some very solid graphs. For example in my this recent post (I guess you missed it), I almost concluded touching $100k in early 2024.

So definitely your price prediction will change based on the graphs you are looking at or based on methods used for analysis or maybe your inner guts after reading certain news or finding some hidden clue left by God. Also it's not strange that your morning price prediction will change in the evening, nothing new in the bitcoin community.

In the end, like you said, yes this price range is definitely not really going to be very painful for me too even if it stays <$20 during the whole 2023. In fact I just topped up with an additional ~ $500 in last couple of days.

[Toxic2040]

#haiku

Another year ends
Didnt even say hello
On a Christmas day

Its that Island life
Yes, Im sure thats the reason
Not, a party missed

Wishing you all well
As the Rabbit approaches
Hippity-hopping


------------


out of the misty morning i heard her call...random..in the middle of a jungle
it took awhile to talk her in
she was starving...been showing up for a couple days now...sits out in front of the cabin until i feed her...not keen on coming on in yet
i seem to have found a new fren...a good omen in my mind...think i will call her kala kala..which might be colours in Hawaiian




------------


stronghands

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[eXPHorizon]

this is what A.I thinks Gachapin is ..



And here is JayJuanGee wahahahhah

I LOL’ed, hard, many thanks.

+1 WO’s merit.

I’ve been re-evaluating the purpose of your existence, in these here parts. At first you come-off as a scamish beggar, claiming you will do wonders, with Bitcoin and youtube, if only they paid you. Bullshit, firstly Bitcoin doesn’t need that, and secondly the Whale Club has got that covered already. That said, you come in a place swarming with liars, and honestly enough, you say “gimme some of that action”.

How about I buy you a beer for Xmas kiddo? [you know alcohol concentrated sugar, is not good for you, right?]
Feel free to drop me an address, privately. And please, make fucking sure that no fucking merits are involved in the process.

Aaah there is so much more than YT and all that yada yada bla bla bla , The Plan was Genius level on a Global scale using multiple scenarios and techniques. On a whole other level than people here can imagine ^^.

In this world all seems to be bad for us hah... i love The Beer im drinkin now so no thank you sir i am fine with the ones i have but maybe buy yourself one and CHEERS For Christmas and New Year !

You cant tell me what to do... I sent you 1 Merit cause it was the 3rd one ^^

[BobLawblaw]

Anyway. Once I'm all set, I'll start a new node and open a new channel to my fellow WO LN-operators (you guys know who you are)

FWIW, probably noticed my node is down as well.

I had a crisis of confidence with Umbrel, and decided it was better to claw everything back into my "play" wallet.

TOR is a fucking disaster for LN, IMO. The performance is just shit vs clearnet.

Not sure how to resolve this moving forward, but it's doubtful I'll be running an LN node off our clearnet home IP at some point in the future, and even less of a chance I spin up a node on a VPS provider.

I tried.

Took a 400k sat loss after all was said and done.

Learned a lot - like I should probably not involve myself with lightning for at least another halvening.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[heslo]

https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1608086703843180544

Devil is in the details.
for the first time they actually sold some Bitcoin!

Just tax loss harvesting from the sound of it, they sold 704 BTC and then bought back 810 BTC two days later

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Antisthenes]

That's both not going to happen, and it is dumb.

We can agree that it’s not going to happen.
Why is it dumb though? Care to elaborate?

Easy solutions need to be smart and practical too, and also to have the potential of at least not making things worse.  What you propose seems to make things worse... and probably because you fail/refuse to see that the current merit system is already providing a benefit in terms of reducing scammers, spammers and shills - which seems to be most of the reason that it was introduced.

The solution to abolish the merit system altogether is very simple. I don’t understand why it needs to be practical, yet alone “smart”.
I don’t “fail” or “refuse” to see that it’s corrupted, and that it serves one purpose and one only. Enabling scammers.

It is you that is stuck, repeating your positions, making me repeat myself too, dumbing down everybody in the process.

Do you deny the fact that we have the phenomena of merit farming and merit circle jerking? Don’t go far.
For shills, spammers and scammers are on the rise because of that very reason. Fake merit trust.

We can agree to disagree on this point.  

We can agree that they wiped your kernel … again.

You are a brand new member who has no reputation anyhow.  You can go to any platform to build your reputation, especially if you are starting from zero.  How long have you been here?  like a week, right?  I just looked at your profile.. registration date 12/21/22. One week ago, as I type this post.

I am not opposed to the idea of theymos rotating merit sources, especially if he believes that some of us have accumulated too many merits and we are likely receiving way more credibility than we deserve..

Listen fuck-head, I never mentioned anything about rotating merit sources. Let me spell it out for you: A-B-O-L-I-S-H

You do you.

It's a statement to acknowledge where we be actually at - as I type this post.

In the middle of no-where apparently.

You don't bother me... that much.. being annoyed from time to time is part of any interactions.

Maybe a little then? Come on, you life-less twat, at least give me that much!
Last thing, I retract that you have some use on the WO. The damage you’re causing, now seems to me, far worse that any useful directives you might input.

In this world all seems to be bad for us hah... i love The Beer im drinkin now so no thank you sir i am fine with the ones i have but maybe buy yourself one and CHEERS For Christmas and New Year !

No worries, you’re welcome, anytime.
Cheers indeed!

You cant tell me what to do... I sent you 1 Merit cause it was the 3rd one ^^

I never “tell” anyone what to do and don’t do FYI. I ask, but that’s another story.
Thank you.

[BitcoinBunny]

Quite funny from both sides.

'How dare you?!' Humiliated Andrew Tate snaps back at Greta Thunberg after teenage eco-warrior says the Big Brother contestant-turned-influencer has 'small d*** energy' and should 'get a life' in savage putdown

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11579157/Greta-Thunberg-takes-Andrew-Tate-says-toxic-influencer-small-d-k-energy.html

Am I the only one sensing some weird sexual tension between these two and is just my dirty mind?

[BitcoinBunny]

OT: I had a cocky neighbor that rushed into building a very expensive second garage project during 2020-2021, when lumber and materials prices went 4X.

I spoke to him last year, and he said to me "Well ya know, lumber prices are never going to return to what they were (pre-Covid era). Because inflation."

Just checked. Lumber prices are back to 2016-2017 levels:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/lumber-price?op=1

Oops.

Like with most things I think demand vs supply eventually re-balances things somewhat in most non BTC markets. We saw ridiculous prices for stupid second hand Teslas, even higher than brand new orders at times, due to demand. Now they are far more realistic.

I guess the only thing that the west are managing to con people in with now are energy prices. There was a recent warning from the Dutch Shell CEO that they will struggle to re-fill gas reserves in Europe for next winter. This seems to have gone unnoticed in most major news outlets. And if that happens and the Ukraine war continues (some possible routes to negotiations we've heard recently but no certainties) things could get pretty bad / unaffordable.

You would have thought eventually a complete lack of demand would plummet energy prices here in Europe, but the stupid ridiculous bets on green energy, which often don't work at all in winter and the stupid sanctions and energy caps on Russian oil (and gas soon probably - only leads to less production) probably means it is the only market where that type of re-balancing isn't going to happen, no matter how sky high the prices go.

Who knows.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

OT: I had a cocky neighbor that rushed into building a very expensive second garage project during 2020-2021, when lumber and materials prices went 4X.

I spoke to him last year, and he said to me "Well ya know, lumber prices are never going to return to what they were (pre-Covid era). Because inflation."

Just checked. Lumber prices are back to 2016-2017 levels:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/lumber-price?op=1

Oops.

Like with most things I think demand vs supply eventually re-balances things somewhat in most non BTC markets. We saw ridiculous prices for stupid second hand Teslas, even higher than brand new orders at times, due to demand. Now they are far more realistic.

I guess the only thing that the west are managing to con people in with now are energy prices. There was a recent warning from the Dutch Shell CEO that they will struggle to re-fill gas reserves in Europe for next winter. This seems to have gone unnoticed in most major news outlets. And if that happens and the Ukraine war continues (some possible routes to negotiations we've heard recently but no certainties) things could get pretty bad / unaffordable.

You would have thought eventually a complete lack of demand would plummet energy prices here in Europe, but the stupid ridiculous bets on green energy, which often don't work at all in winter and the stupid sanctions and energy caps on Russian oil (and gas soon probably - only leads to less production) probably means it is the only market where that type of re-balancing isn't going to happen, no matter how sky high the prices go.

Who knows.

 

The thing is, here in the U.S. people just don't get it.

They first gave Americans huuge amounts of free stimmy money (thousands of $$$ per household).

Then second they proceeded to run up the price of everything that people would actually WANT to spend that money ON:

Houses, new cars, used cars, luxury goods, luxury watches (Rolexes, etc.), lumber/building supplies, appliances, natural gas, petrol, etc.

The MSM said it was "unprecedented demand" that was running up the prices of those things. It wasn't.

It was the establishment creating artificial supply constraints, and also artificially running up the price of all those things, in order to fleece the very people they just gave free money to. The FOMO that was created didn't help.

[OgNasty]

Quite funny from both sides.

'How dare you?!' Humiliated Andrew Tate snaps back at Greta Thunberg after teenage eco-warrior says the Big Brother contestant-turned-influencer has 'small d*** energy' and should 'get a life' in savage putdown

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11579157/Greta-Thunberg-takes-Andrew-Tate-says-toxic-influencer-small-d-k-energy.html

Am I the only one sensing some weird sexual tension between these two and is just my dirty mind?

I think this interaction pretty much seals the idea that Greta Thunberg's Dad is the one in charge of her social accounts.  It's pretty crazy how a Dad using his disabled daughter to attack climate change got such a massive response around the world.  Why have I heard of this girl?  I really don't understand what she's ever done besides criticize climate change with knowledge that was obvious out of her grasp.  Sure, it's a feel good story, but it was a 15 minutes of fame thing.  Now that everyone should be very clear she's a puppet being used by her Dad to further his agenda, I hope we can let these limelight seekers fade away.