$jjg...As promised, here are some numbers:
If i had bulk invested $47K instead of DCA since 2013-2014, using buys at exactly my actual timing, I would have gotten about 113-114 BTC vs 45btc (dcaing by your estimate).
Please...I did not invest 47K (could be any other number), so don't start counting it as my "basis", I simply used the number in your example.
The hypothetical no doesn't work like that... you fuck.
I was using your forum registration as the start date, and I was using $100 per week as the amount that you could have put into BTC without having any need to actively engage in price strategizing, so there is a presumption that the $100 per week is within your budget because it is money that is coming available to you once a week, so if you don't buy bitcoin with it, after 4 weeks it will add up to $400 and aver 52 weeks (1 year), it will add up to $5,200, and after 9 years, it will add up to $47k. It is not necessarily available in advance unless you are saying that you are going to take out a 9 year loan (which is also not very likely for most normies).
Deal with the reality of circumstances that normies face, and sure, you can add to the hypothetical to suggest that maybe the hypothetical person is staring out with an investment portfolio that is right around $100k or perhaps some other number, and maybe the target is to get up to 10% allocation in bitcoin within a year or some other reasonable timeline.
Another thing that I would grant you is that when you came to bitcoin in early 2014 (we are using your forum registration date, and sure you can adjust that start date too, if you like), you can look at the BTC prices, and you can see that the BTC prices had gone up more than 100x in one year, so you may well have had reasonably come to the conclusion that it would not be prudent to start to invest in bitcoin in a lump sum at that particular moment (even if you were to have a lump sum of funds available based on different circumstances - the hypothetical was not giving you a lump sum, but instead the availability of $100 per week, starting from your forum registration date)... so if you change the hypothetical, then a lot of things change..
and admit it.. you are not even trying to realistically grapple with the hypothetical.. except come up with some gotcha to show everyone how much smarter you are because you are going to buy 113.5 BTC at an average price of $414, and you are not even going to describe how you got there.
Sure, I will grant that I hardly give any shits about the actual numbers, you can tweak them, even though $100 per week that is spread over 9 years (and adds up to $47k) seems reasonable... but also starting out with having some kind of investment portfolio could be reasonable too.... and such investment portfolio in early 2014 could be $100k or it could be some other number that might seem more suitable.. there could also be some lump sum that is available to invest right away, so then the choice might be how to proceed if you have a lump sum and you also know that you have something like $100 per week that is going to continue to come into your account in the coming 9 years (yeah of course you do not know everything about the future, but you make a projection about what it might be in the future, and then when you look back at what happened (after 9 years) you can see what you actually did versus what you plan might have been. You can attempt to make comparisons about what might have been reasonable, prudent and even realistic given mindset considerations too.. and with you, we already know that you were a fucking bear, and even in 2015, you were probably still whining that the BTC price might go to $100 or whatever, so you would have been failing and refusing to buy BTC during 2015, and even when the BTC price shot up to $500 in November, you would have been scared it was going to crash again, and the same is true in 2017 when it shot above $1,000, you would have been waiting for it to go back down below $500. .. so don't be trying to act like you know (or would have known) the perfect investment strategy for the past 9 years, merely because I was presenting you with a hypothetical budget of $100 per week for 470 weeks.
I was largely trying to considering possible reasonable numbers that we could work with. Previously I had considered someone who might be in their late 20s early 30s and with an income of somewhere between $30k and $40k.. but some of that might not matter so much either, if we might end up conceding a budget that averages out to allowing $100 per week to come available that could have been invested into Bitcoin or into some other investment on a weekly basis, so we are deciding what are we going to do with the $100 per week that is available.
But, here is a more pertinent number: with mining started in Nov 2019 and lasting until about March 2022.
2.3 btc mined with the average price of $18.17K/btc. Revenue about 41.8K
If, instead, you would have spend the exact same $$ (say, 42K) on DCA during the same time period, doing it on a weekly basis, then Excel gives me a weekly average for btc of $29.2K and, therefore, 1.43 BTC accumulated.
2.3 is >>1.43
btw, my previous assertions for averages were all based on weekly btc prices put into Excel (sorry, don't care about dcabtc website).
You can ask me: how come the btc mined price average is lower. It is because when you mine, you always mine more in the beginning and less later (due to difficulty increase).
TL;DR bulk purchase earlier wins (obviously), but don't neglect mining, especially if you start a new round when btc price is low and price of machines is low as well. Imho, peeeps should listen to what phil is saying about when is a good time to start mining and or purchase mining machines.
I don't know why you are trying to move the goal posts or to add some new activities.
Originally, your criticism of some of my perspectives was that a timed "buying in gulps" approach would be able to beat a DCA strategy, and I had not even been denying the truth of the assertion that it could beat it, but I have also been proclaiming that normies don't have time to be fucking around trying to figure out if the BTC price is going up or down and a variety of other factors, so in that regard, I was suggesting that the vast majority of normies are going to be better off to establish some kind of an approach in which they figure out their budget and attempt to be relatively aggressive with a combination of DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing.. with the main emphasis on DCA buying.. that allows them to be more assertive and aggressive because they are buying regularly, even though it could take a few years to solidly get into profits depending on when they entered and maybe some basic ways that they might be able to lower some of the costs per BTC.
Instead of working with some of the scenarios that we had already been discussing, you seem to want to overly complicate matters and now you want to talk about mining.
Fuck mining.
yeah guys can do it, but that surely is not a basic strategy, and you are overly complicating matters.
Another thing that I frequently say is to get the fuck started right away, even if that is ONLY buying $10 per week, and then if you figure out your budget and various other aspects of your finances and psychology (and even various aspects of bitcoin) you can become more aggressive and assertive after you figure out your own situation. so any kind of investment, whether bitcoin or otherwise needs to be tailored to personal circumstances, yet part of the reason to get so excited about bitcoin is because it presents a lot of opportunities that do not really seem to be have historically been available to normies, including being able to invest with small amounts such as $10 per week.. and other opportunties as well..
And you Biodom want to get distracted into capital intensive bullshit.. such as mining.. and even stocks and bonds have similar problems. in which sometimes there are issues in regards to who holds the assets.. and how do you get in, but surely some of those other ways of investing (in traditional ways) are having to become more easy and available to normies, otherwise bitcoin is going to even more quickly eat their lunches because bitcoin is actually available to all, even though there are some scary aspects of bitcoin and even learning curves in bitcoin too.. but surely much more empowering to try to figure out (and concentrate) on bitcoin rather than getting distracted into the kind of bullshit that you are talking about (how many dollars can I make blah blah blah).
By the way, the
DCA of $100 per week since November 1, 2019 does give you about a $17k invested and nearly 0.89 BTC. I use that cite for ease of just coming up with some numbers that sound right in terms of how much BTC might have been accumulated over time, and getting some ballpark ideas, and surely if we go over a longer period of time, the more likely we are able to see profitable numbers.. The cite is easy to reference and easy for various folks reading this thread to be able to play around with the numbers and timeframes contained therein.
So generally, a basic DCA approach would be set it and forget it for several years, but a more involved approach might include some buying on dips and some other possible strategies that we likely don't need to discuss at this time, especially since you are not even really seeming to want to work realistically with the issue that was presented in regards to having a 9 year investment time period and then comparing some straight forward ways of investing that might have been generally available to normies with something like a $100 per week budget that they would have available to invest into bitcoin (or perhaps investing it somewhere else - fuck mining.. that's overly complicating things.. and seems to be getting off topic - moving the goal posts).
Poll
