MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering]

[ronaldlee0917]

BTC90 withdrawal, 5 hours, not even shown on blockchain.
Expect 1000x more time for MtGox to finish a task the others can finish and you will less likely be disappointed.

[sturle]

That just screams "they're broke".

Why would MtGox not be broke?

Because if you take a quick look at the numbers, it is not possible.

Imho they are running out of Fiat.

If you build your opinion on known facts instead of whatever pops into your head, you will find this very unlikely.

Why would anyone transfer USD, EUR, JPY, ... to MtGox when you can buy Bitcoins at any other exchange for ~10% less?

Beats me.

[tvbcof]

Why would anyone transfer USD, EUR, JPY, ... to MtGox when you can buy Bitcoins at any other exchange for ~10% less?

Beats me.

The main thing which has limited my exploration of various exchanges is that I am sensitive about my personal information should the exchange get hacked or steal it.  I would, with some annoyance, accept a premium in order to do business with an outfit who I had already entrusted with my personal identification data.  That said, for the current premiums I would likely go ahead and choose another exchange or mode if I were buying these days.

I did finally become 'verified' with Mt. Gox.  Although they have had some issues with data loss in the past, I figured and hoped that with better funding and more time, they had managed to tighten things up a bit.

I also have, over the years, mused (publicly) about how it was that Mt. Gox seemed to get a free ride while other exchanges were harassed into closure.  At least the ones who seemed to be on a growth trajectory.  I put forward the hypothesis that Mt. Gox was especially cooperative with entities who gather detailed information about the financial behavior of persons on an individual level.  When Mt. Gox jumped at the opportunity to unload their N. American userbase and came under obvious pressure, I decided that either the hypothesis was wrong or Mt. Gox's behavior had changed.  Only then did I entrust them with my personal details.  And I don't even have much reason to need privacy...it's mostly just a matter of principles to me.

[Luno]

So what is the great plan at Gox? Offering XRP's at a favourable rate to customers holding $$ So they can save on the payouts?

[Alpaca Bob]

One thing that Bitcoin has made crystal clear to me is how much 'my' fiat money is NOT my own.  My use of USD is significantly constrained and there are a plethora of things I am not allowed to use USD for which are perfectly legal.  Wikileaks, selling BTC, etc.  I knew intellectually that money issued by the federal reserve was never really mine, but this point has been driven home more concretely of late.

Yes, it's like the old financial system is having a giant marketing-campaign to show us all of the benefits of bitcoin.

[RaTTuS]

[10:42] <dust-otc> if the "good news" has anything to do with LTC, it is a slap in the face to anyone waiting on USD for months
[10:43] * Joins: Syloq (~Syloq@unaffiliated/syloq)
[10:43] <@MagicalTux> dust-otc, LTC won't be implemented before Midas is online
[10:45] * Joins: paraipan (~paraipan@gateway/tor-sasl/paraipanakos)
[10:48] <miketurner> @magicaltux: Hi. How long is the SEPA queue at the moment ?
[10:49] <@MagicalTux> miketurner, right now, 1 month and 5 days, slightly getting better after lagging a lot
[10:49] <miketurner> working days ?
[10:49] <@MagicalTux> (took almost 4 weeks to do all transfers requested end of august)
[10:50] <@MagicalTux> miketurner, absolute days
[10:50] <miketurner> ok, cheers
[10:50] <dust-otc> what was the most recent request date of a sent international USD wire that didn't pay the 5% fee?
[10:51] <@MagicalTux> dust-otc, too long (I do not have exact data for intl right here right now)
[10:52] <dust-otc> is that queue moving at all?
[10:52] <dust-otc> or only those who pay the ransom fee
[10:53] * Joins: fanquake (~anonymous@unaffiliated/fanquake)
[10:54] <Delerium> there's no fee on SEPA
[10:54] <Delerium> afaik
[10:54] <Delerium> 'emergency fee' i mean
[10:54] <dust-otc> I live in the US
[10:54] <snowman1> dust, I appreciate your questions but you will probably get a better response without the attitude (I am waiting on USD too)
[10:54] <RaTTuS|BIG> SEPA does not apply to US
[10:55] * Joins: tencevad (~tencevad@unaffiliated/dspree)
[10:55] <dust-otc> and "emergency fee" is fine if it is expediting a process that will occur eventually
[10:55] <dust-otc> but there is no sign of progress
[10:56] * Joins: cyro432 (~cyro432@unaffiliated/cyro432)
[10:56] <snowman1> yes, I would like to know where the queue is as well.  For what its worth, I have been assured by support that the USD queue is still moving
[10:57] <@MagicalTux> dust-otc, we are working with various partners to resume wires
[10:57] <@MagicalTux> it takes time because we are subject to much pressure

[Frizz23]

That just screams "they're broke".

Why would MtGox not be broke?

Because if you take a quick look at the numbers, it is not possible.

That's what Lehman Brothers said in 2008.

We all know that you are a MtGox shill. Why would people give a damn about what you say?

[sturle]

That just screams "they're broke".

Why would MtGox not be broke?

Because if you take a quick look at the numbers, it is not possible.

That's what Lehman Brothers said in 2008.

They did?  Do you have a reference?

EUR withdrawal via SEPA and domestic JPY withdrawal has worked normally all the time, with a few hickups for JPY.  SEPA delay is about the same as it was in May, for exactly the same reason as a year ago, and changes are predictable from the volume.  To me it screams "they have problems sending international wires" and "they have a daily quota on their SEPA transfers".  If they were broke, they wouldn't be able to send any payments.

We all know that you are a MtGox shill. Why would people give a damn about what you say?

I am not affiliated with MtGox in any other way than most of the people here.  I am a normal user, and that's all.  People should give a damn because I actually investigate things and check facts instead of posting pure speculation based on rumours and hot air.

[User705]

Is it true that mtgox now asks for verification even if you want to withdraw BTC?  If that's the case shouldn't the spread between exchanges go down?

[Coinalot.net]

I Just got a >90000 CAD swift withdrawl fram Sept. 9 although it was less
that 90000 because i paid the 5% emergency fee.
Everything seems good with Gox.

So currencies other than USD seem OK if you pay 5%, which is not that unreasonable if there is a conversion with JPY involved, since currency conversion spreads can be around 3 or 4%. Shame I wanted USD and that still seems to still be a problem. I will return to Gox only when they resolve the USD withdrawal issue.

I'm thinking that perhaps 'resolving the USD withdrawal issue' is not something that Mt. Gox has the ability or really the responsibility to do.  If our government and banking system's are creating road-blocks, it's up to USD users in our supposed democracy to rectify.  I've don'e nothing illegal and Bitcoin itself is not illegal so I am being unfairly harmed by whatever roadblocks are being erected either by my government who supposedly works for me, or the banks that I willingly choose to do business with.

My rational for believing that Mt. Gox is mostly not to blame here is that it makes no sense that they would not be very anxious to get over the USD problem.  Why on earth would they want to lose money and customers in this mess?  The only reason I could see for it is that they plan to abscond with funds, but there are arguments against believing this to be the case and Karpeles has proven reliable at other times when he could have stolen everything.


Anyway, if Mt. Gox is reading this, at least one person would like to attempt to push on the string from the other end.  I'd be happy to contact my congress person who happens to be no friend of the banking industry.  I also would be happy to harass my bank if an international wire has been rejected by them.  All I need is information on what's going on.

So can one person explain to me why these banks that are supposed to be throwing roadblocks in front of MtGox "because they want to stop/slow down bitcoin" do not throw these roadblocks in front of Bitstamp or BTC-E or any other big exchange? Why is Bitstamp able to process my deposit in 2 days? And how is it possible that a withdraw from Bitstamp also only takes 2 or max 3 days?

It's possible they are just doing it to MtGox at the moment because that is the biggest exchange. If Bitstamp became the biggest exchange then perhaps something would happen to them, then.

[bernard75]

Is it true that mtgox now asks for verification even if you want to withdraw BTC?  If that's the case shouldn't the spread between exchanges go down?

Nope, thats Bitstamp.

[pand70]

One pattern that seems to have repeated itself over and over is that a Bitcoin exchange gets a smooth operation going with some bank (or money service business) and things chip along for a few weeks, then Bam!

Do i smell conspiracy? 
In any case an exchange has to plan ahead and take those risks into account. I mean they are doing that business for so long now to not be able to manage the same problems over and over...

There is such a thing as an intractable problem, and there are only so many banks in the world.  Thankfully when Tradehill finally hammered up the plywood they did not walk off with my money.  I hope the same holds for Mt. Gox if it comes to that.

To answer your question, ya, I would consider the problems that Bitcoin exchanges (of a certain size) have with mainstream financial institutions to be almost certainly the result of a 'conspiracy' (using the word in a formal way.)

Ok just wanted to be sure before wearing my tinfoil hat. (Not that i don't look fine in it)
Seriously now i can understand your concerns but i don't agree. I don't think anyone takes bitcoin that seriously yet...

[tvbcof]

So can one person explain to me why these banks that are supposed to be throwing roadblocks in front of MtGox "because they want to stop/slow down bitcoin" do not throw these roadblocks in front of Bitstamp or BTC-E or any other big exchange? Why is Bitstamp able to process my deposit in 2 days? And how is it possible that a withdraw from Bitstamp also only takes 2 or max 3 days?

It's possible they are just doing it to MtGox at the moment because that is the biggest exchange. If Bitstamp became the biggest exchange then perhaps something would happen to them, then.

It's also possible that entities who are especially cooperative and/or are in a position which makes it possible to squeeze them at some point in the future are left unmolested.  This to mold the future Bitcoin landscape into a form which will be more easy to manage at a later time.

I'm not saying that this is what is happening, and to be honest I rather doubt that any particular group with significant organizational ability is focused that clearly on the addressing the potential future threat of the Bitcoin ecosystem at this point.  But it is a viable hypothesis to test.

Again as I mentioned recently, I put forward this hypothesis about Mt. Gox when they seemed to have had a free ride (even though they were the largest by a mile.)  The ride came to a crashing halt at about the time the Coinlabs deal came crashing down it seemed to me.  It also needs note, however, that Mt. Gox operates in a funny jurisdiction. (I find a lot of stuff about Japan to be funny...and tragic...)

[tvbcof]

One pattern that seems to have repeated itself over and over is that a Bitcoin exchange gets a smooth operation going with some bank (or money service business) and things chip along for a few weeks, then Bam!

Do i smell conspiracy? 
In any case an exchange has to plan ahead and take those risks into account. I mean they are doing that business for so long now to not be able to manage the same problems over and over...

There is such a thing as an intractable problem, and there are only so many banks in the world.  Thankfully when Tradehill finally hammered up the plywood they did not walk off with my money.  I hope the same holds for Mt. Gox if it comes to that.

To answer your question, ya, I would consider the problems that Bitcoin exchanges (of a certain size) have with mainstream financial institutions to be almost certainly the result of a 'conspiracy' (using the word in a formal way.)

Ok just wanted to be sure before wearing my tinfoil hat. (Not that i don't look fine in it)
Seriously now i can understand your concerns but i don't agree. I don't think anyone takes bitcoin that seriously yet...

The null hypothesis is that there is no pressure on financial service providers to avoid doing business with Bitcoin exchanges.

I find this hypothesis also to be viable.  It it certainly possible that organic and general hassles associated with AML, and the extra-ordinary percentage of Bitcoin users who are tagged with such problems, are sufficient to explain why Bitcoin exchanges have a hard time maintaining a durable relationship with mainstream financial service providers.

I was long of the opinion also that Bitcoin was to dinky to attain any real attention from 'the powers that be' (and that has been an unwelcome opinion on this forum for a while now.)  As of the last few quarters I believe that it probably has hit the radar screen of most financial thinkers and planners.  Not that it is universally taken particularly seriously, but it probably is something which has garnered a certain amount of contemplation.

[sturle]

I will try to make a SEPA withdrawal time forecast based on EUR volume and my experience of how it affects delays.  Here is my first attempt.

This is for SEPA only, and withdrawals > ~500 EUR.  Smaller amounts may be faster.  JPY is known to be about 2 days, and international wire is about forever.  My forecast estimate when your withdrawal will change from confirmed to pending, and you will receive it the next business day.

My forecast:
Withdrawals made on or before September 5th are out or going out today.  Withdrawals made on September 6-8 will go out today or Monday.  September 9th will take more than one day to process.  I expect it to be done on Wednesday or Thursday along with withdrawals made on the 10th.  September 11th will take at least two days as well.  The first will probably go out on Friday, i.e. in one week from now.  When withdrawals from September 11th are done, it will be a smooth ride with shortening SEPA queue until we start working on withdrawals made in the beginning of October.  I expect a huge speed bump in the first few days of October.

Please report when your withdrawals arrive, and I will use your feedback to see if I can make a better forecast.  (Or if I am completely useless at this and should find something better to do. :-)

[bernard75]

My forecast:
Withdrawals made on or before September 5th are out or going out today.  Withdrawals made on September 6-8 will go out today or Monday.  September 9th will take more than one day to process.  I expect it to be done on Wednesday or Thursday along with withdrawals made on the 10th.  September 11th will take at least two days as well.  The first will probably go out on Friday, i.e. in one week from now.  When withdrawals from September 11th are done, it will be a smooth ride with shortening SEPA queue until we start working on withdrawals made in the beginning of October.  I expect a huge speed bump in the first few days of October.

We have October.

[sturle]

My forecast:
Withdrawals made on or before September 5th are out or going out today.  Withdrawals made on September 6-8 will go out today or Monday.  September 9th will take more than one day to process.  I expect it to be done on Wednesday or Thursday along with withdrawals made on the 10th.  September 11th will take at least two days as well.  The first will probably go out on Friday, i.e. in one week from now.  When withdrawals from September 11th are done, it will be a smooth ride with shortening SEPA queue until we start working on withdrawals made in the beginning of October.  I expect a huge speed bump in the first few days of October.

We have October.

Correct.  My predictions refer to when the withdrawals were made, and when during the following seven days people can expect to receive them (today through Friday 18th).  The last two sentences is an attempt of a long term forecast with no exact days given.  Perhaps the last sentence is clearer if you modify it to: I expect a huge speed bump when processing withdrawals made during the first few days of October.

[bernard75]

You got me confused with the "first few days of October".
Anyway lets hope you are right.

[Frizz23]

@sturle, the MtGox master shill:

My key point is:

Why would anyone transfer USD, EUR, JPY, ... to MtGox when you can buy Bitcoins at any other exchange for ~10% less?

[eiswuerfel]

My Sepa withdraw (500€) changed after 35 days waiting to pending.