MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering]

[smoothie]

MTGOX only started having really huge withdrawal of fiat problems since May 2013. So no zeroblock has enough data points to show the huge discrepancy in price holding above 14%.

Not to prove his claim of no such discrepancies before that date.  Try to make a similar graph for BTC-E and MtGox for the lifetime of BTC-E.  "Because BTC-E is more trusted?"  Nah.

BTC-e requires lots of fees to get fiat into and out of the exchange.

That spread has been known for a very LONG TIME.

This new spread between GOX and all other exchanges is nothing that has been explained thoroughly through fees etc and is not justified by anything I am aware of other than mistrust in the exchange itself.

Ah.  So the BTC-E discrepancy is due to difficulties getting fiat in and out of the exchange, while the MtGox discrepancy is due to distrust?  That's a new one!

If we are to believe the order books, a lot more BTC and their fiat is trusted to MtGox than to BTC-E.

I think it is the other way around.  Discrepancies are high for both due to difficulties getting fiat in or out.  MtGox price, volume, depth and liquidity is higher because people trust MtGox more than they trust BTC-E.

That is incorrect.  The price discrepancy between BitStamp/Gox (12-15%) vs BitStamp/BTC-e (1-3%) is magnitudes smaller.  You are comparing apples to oranges.

+1

Sturle you perhaps should do the math yourself on the discrepancies in percentage and also look into the fees that BTC-e charges to get fiat in and out. MTGOX doesn't charge that much to get fiat in and out (given they actually allow fiat in and out).

Your response is obviously overlooking the very well known price difference between GOX and BTC-e due to FEEs and highlighting it as if it is "normal" trading when there is a legitimate reason for the price difference concerning BTC-e, Unlike GOX.

GOX does not charge large fees for fiat deposits or withdrawals and yet still has a 10%+ discrepancy that has not be explained by anything but mistrust.

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[sturle]

Ah.  So the BTC-E discrepancy is due to difficulties getting fiat in and out of the exchange, while the MtGox discrepancy is due to distrust?  That's a new one!

If we are to believe the order books, a lot more BTC and their fiat is trusted to MtGox than to BTC-E.

I think it is the other way around.  Discrepancies are high for both due to difficulties getting fiat in or out.  MtGox price, volume, depth and liquidity is higher because people trust MtGox more than they trust BTC-E.

That is incorrect.  The price discrepancy between BitStamp/Gox (12-15%) vs BitStamp/BTC-e (1-3%) is magnitudes smaller.  You are comparing apples to oranges.

Eh?  You tell me "this" is incorrect (What is incorrect?) and make no attempt to prove it.  The difference in volume of the two exchanges is way more than 10x.  Depth and liquidity as well.

[smoothie]

Ah.  So the BTC-E discrepancy is due to difficulties getting fiat in and out of the exchange, while the MtGox discrepancy is due to distrust?  That's a new one!

If we are to believe the order books, a lot more BTC and their fiat is trusted to MtGox than to BTC-E.

I think it is the other way around.  Discrepancies are high for both due to difficulties getting fiat in or out.  MtGox price, volume, depth and liquidity is higher because people trust MtGox more than they trust BTC-E.

That is incorrect.  The price discrepancy between BitStamp/Gox (12-15%) vs BitStamp/BTC-e (1-3%) is magnitudes smaller.  You are comparing apples to oranges.

Eh?  You tell me "this" is incorrect (What is incorrect?) and make no attempt to prove it.  The difference in volume of the two exchanges is way more than 10x.  Depth and liquidity as well.

Volume, depth, and liquidity has little to do with price difference given that ARB opportunities would bring prices between two exchanges into a much more narrower range than they currently are.

An example I personally could do as a customer of both BTC-e, Bitstamp, and GOX is buy bitcoin on BTC-e/bitstamp and sell for 10-15% profit on GOX.

The reason I don't do that is there is no way to get fiat out from gox in any meaningful timeframe. TIME = Money.

I don't believe I am in the MINORITY when it comes to that. The arbitrage vs the risk of GOX defaulting is not worth it. Essentially if you cant get fiat out of GOX there is no difference in your fiat than playing on a FREE forex trading account with "funny money".

[Zarathustra]

If we are to believe the order books, a lot more BTC and their fiat is trusted to MtGox than to BTC-E.

And why did their market share crash from 75 to 45 percent within weeks?
I guess because the smart money is leaving and the dumb money is still waiting (for godot).

[BitCoinNutJob]

Ah.  So the BTC-E discrepancy is due to difficulties getting fiat in and out of the exchange, while the MtGox discrepancy is due to distrust?  That's a new one!

If we are to believe the order books, a lot more BTC and their fiat is trusted to MtGox than to BTC-E.

I think it is the other way around.  Discrepancies are high for both due to difficulties getting fiat in or out.  MtGox price, volume, depth and liquidity is higher because people trust MtGox more than they trust BTC-E.

That is incorrect.  The price discrepancy between BitStamp/Gox (12-15%) vs BitStamp/BTC-e (1-3%) is magnitudes smaller.  You are comparing apples to oranges.

Eh?  You tell me "this" is incorrect (What is incorrect?) and make no attempt to prove it.  The difference in volume of the two exchanges is way more than 10x.  Depth and liquidity as well.

Volume, depthe, and liquidity has little to do with price difference given that ARB opportunities would bring prices between two exchanges into a much more narrower range than they currently are.

Pretty sure some people or group are successfully arbing (maybe japan locals?), we keep seeing massive great BTC sell walls @ BTC-e to keep price down.   Wouldn't be in this groups interest to spoil the large spread.

[joesmoe2012]

This is all a mute argument.

And I personally think that "Mark knows it's all over".
Now you have _a_ source: me.

You think a lot of strange things.  Like that friends and family of MtGox staff has to pay a 5% fee to withdraw funds from MtGox, instead of the standard 200 yen fee for a next day domestic transfer, and present it like they have an advantage.  You are a troll, oyvinds.  Nothing less.  Your personal thoughts aren't worth much.

lol of course they don't pay more than the 200 yen fee, if that.

[smoothie]

Ah.  So the BTC-E discrepancy is due to difficulties getting fiat in and out of the exchange, while the MtGox discrepancy is due to distrust?  That's a new one!

If we are to believe the order books, a lot more BTC and their fiat is trusted to MtGox than to BTC-E.

I think it is the other way around.  Discrepancies are high for both due to difficulties getting fiat in or out.  MtGox price, volume, depth and liquidity is higher because people trust MtGox more than they trust BTC-E.

That is incorrect.  The price discrepancy between BitStamp/Gox (12-15%) vs BitStamp/BTC-e (1-3%) is magnitudes smaller.  You are comparing apples to oranges.

Eh?  You tell me "this" is incorrect (What is incorrect?) and make no attempt to prove it.  The difference in volume of the two exchanges is way more than 10x.  Depth and liquidity as well.

Volume, depthe, and liquidity has little to do with price difference given that ARB opportunities would bring prices between two exchanges into a much more narrower range than they currently are.

Pretty sure some people or group are successfully arbing (maybe japan locals?), we keep seeing massive great BTC sell walls @ BTC-e to keep price down.   Wouldn't be in this groups interest to spoil the large spread.

This is likely true. But my point is directed at the big money and not the small money. Obviously the big money is not local to Japan when speaking about arb Bitcoin price opportunities. Otherwise the gap would have closed by now. If there was a Japanese whale the gap would close much much faster. Free money is not going to be passed up.

[sturle]

If we are to believe the order books, a lot more BTC and their fiat is trusted to MtGox than to BTC-E.

And why crashed their market share from 75 to 45 percent within weeks?
I guess because the smart money is leaving and the dumb money is still waiting (for godot).

I have never seen MtGox's market share below 50%.  Not even a 24 hour period.  Some people making that claim have done the mistake of ignoring all currencies on MtGox than USD.  Non-USD volume is usually a large part of the total volume on MtGox.

Take the last 24 hour volume:
51403 BTC traded in USD
 7615 BTC traded in EUR
 3086 BTC traded in JPY
 ... [ + a few k in other currecies ]

Non-USD currencies make up more than 20% of the total volume today.  And note that people have noticed they can withdraw JPY very quickly and move to other exchanges for arbitrage.

Bitstamp?  19367  BTC total today.   Less than 1/3 of MtGox.
BTC-E?  4587 BTC total today.  Less than EUR volume at MtGox.

[joesmoe2012]

i thought GoxCNY was above Gox EUR or JPY....sec i'll find a chart so i'm not just thinking...

[joesmoe2012]

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/volumepie/ shows that CNY is just below EUR and way above JPY.

Usually CNY is above EUR too @ gox.

[Zarathustra]

If we are to believe the order books, a lot more BTC and their fiat is trusted to MtGox than to BTC-E.

And why crashed their market share from 75 to 45 percent within weeks?
I guess because the smart money is leaving and the dumb money is still waiting (for godot).

I have never seen MtGox's market share below 50%.  Not even a 24 hour period.  Some people making that claim have done the mistake of ignoring all currencies on MtGox than USD.  Non-USD volume is usually a large part of the total volume on MtGox.

You think, this is an answer to my question?
Then again: Why did their USD market share crash from 75 to 45 percent within weeks?

I guess, because (as it is reflected bei the opinions in these threads) the smart money is rapidly leaving and the dumb money is still waiting (for godot), or doing 'arbitrage'.

[sturle]

I have never seen MtGox's market share below 50%.  Not even a 24 hour period.  Some people making that claim have done the mistake of ignoring all currencies on MtGox than USD.  Non-USD volume is usually a large part of the total volume on MtGox.

You think, this is an answer to my question?
Then again: Why did their USD market share crash from 75 to 45 percent within weeks?

I guess, because (as it is reflected bei the opinions in these threads) the smart money is rapidly leaving and the dumb money is still waiting (for godot), or doing 'arbitrage'.

The answer is more complex than you think.  First of all the total volume crashed.  MtGox is boss at high volume, and at low volume it is more even.  The volume has been record low for a while, and the reason why the picture is very different today.  Second, while USD volume at MtGox has gone down, EUR and JPY volume has gone up.  Those are the smart money doing arbitrage, buying BTC from other exchanges to sell at MtGox.  Then there are people panicing, of course due to USD withdrawal problems.  (That's your dumb money leaving at a loss.)

If you have an EUR withdrawal waiting for more than a week, you should check and make sure it is a SEPA withdrawal.  It is easy to make the mistake of making it an international transfer instead.  Then contact support to make sure everything is in order.  No errors in forms or anything else making the transfer fail.

[OhShei8e]

I guess, because (as it is reflected bei the opinions in these threads) the smart money is rapidly leaving and the dumb money is still waiting (for godot), or doing 'arbitrage'.

If the people would be so smart, they would have waited until the price is at least over $100 on the other exchanges. But they have cut there own hair by selling their coins hastily.

This situation can persist quite a while. Maybe a year or so. Who has the best nerves, wins. Gox wins in the end anyway. They are hard-boiled.

There is still only one million on Bitstamp. On the other exchanges much less. The trading volume is puny again compared to Gox. Bitstamp looks strong only if Gox sleeps.

Because USD withdrawal from Gox is not possible the price will continue to rise. On all exchanges. The Gap is the way still quite small. I hope it grows to 50-100% so that the abitrage for me is really worth. Good times for EURO/SEPA dealers. I am the hairdresser.

I think I can make up to 500 euros a month so.

[sturle]

Ah.  So the BTC-E discrepancy is due to difficulties getting fiat in and out of the exchange, while the MtGox discrepancy is due to distrust?  That's a new one!

If we are to believe the order books, a lot more BTC and their fiat is trusted to MtGox than to BTC-E.

I think it is the other way around.  Discrepancies are high for both due to difficulties getting fiat in or out.  MtGox price, volume, depth and liquidity is higher because people trust MtGox more than they trust BTC-E.

That is incorrect.  The price discrepancy between BitStamp/Gox (12-15%) vs BitStamp/BTC-e (1-3%) is magnitudes smaller.  You are comparing apples to oranges.

Sturle you perhaps should do the math yourself on the discrepancies in percentage and also look into the fees that BTC-e charges to get fiat in and out. MTGOX doesn't charge that much to get fiat in and out (given they actually allow fiat in and out).

Your response is obviously overlooking the very well known price difference between GOX and BTC-e due to FEEs and highlighting it as if it is "normal" trading when there is a legitimate reason for the price difference concerning BTC-e, Unlike GOX.

GOX does not charge large fees for fiat deposits or withdrawals and yet still has a 10%+ discrepancy that has not be explained by anything but mistrust.

I guess we disagree on this point.  I believe the discrepancy between MtGox and other exchanges is due to difficulties of getting USD (primarily) out, making arbitrage difficult.  Just as high fees does, as explained by smoothie.  You think the reason for the discrepancy is due to lack of trust in MtGox, even if every possible metric of trust show the opposite.  So I believe you are wrong, and I doubt you did the math yourself.

[Zarathustra]

I have never seen MtGox's market share below 50%.  Not even a 24 hour period.  Some people making that claim have done the mistake of ignoring all currencies on MtGox than USD.  Non-USD volume is usually a large part of the total volume on MtGox.

You think, this is an answer to my question?
Then again: Why did their USD market share crash from 75 to 45 percent within weeks?

I guess, because (as it is reflected bei the opinions in these threads) the smart money is rapidly leaving and the dumb money is still waiting (for godot), or doing 'arbitrage'.

The answer is more complex than you think.  First of all the total volume crashed.  MtGox is boss at high volume, and at low volume it is more even.  The volume has been record low for a while, and the reason why the picture is very different today.  Second, while USD volume at MtGox has gone down, EUR and JPY volume has gone up.  Those are the smart money doing arbitrage, buying BTC from other exchanges to sell at MtGox.  Then there are people panicing, of course due to USD withdrawal problems.  (That's your dumb money leaving at a loss.)

If you have an EUR withdrawal waiting for more than a week, you should check and make sure it is a SEPA withdrawal.  It is easy to make the mistake of making it an international transfer instead.  Then contact support to make sure everything is in order.  No errors in forms or anything else making the transfer fail.

Only time will tell which bitcointalk members were representing the smart money. As for my part, I am not in business with this company, and if my company would have a gox-like customer service, I'd be bancrupt long before. The latest joke is, that BTC transactions take 1-2 weeks:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=277693.msg2965858#msg2965858

[OhShei8e]

Only time will tell which bitcointalk members were representing the smart money.

Thats true.

As for my part, I am not in business with this company, and if my company would have a gox-like customer service, I'd be bancrupt long before.

Now you know why I admire Gox.

[justusranvier]

Pretty sure some people or group are successfully arbing (maybe japan locals?), we keep seeing massive great BTC sell walls @ BTC-e to keep price down.   Wouldn't be in this groups interest to spoil the large spread.

I don't think you understand how arbitrage works.

[sturle]

GOX does not charge large fees for fiat deposits or withdrawals and yet still has a 10%+ discrepancy that has not be explained by anything but mistrust.

I guess we disagree on this point.  I believe the discrepancy between MtGox and other exchanges is due to difficulties of getting USD (primarily) out, making arbitrage difficult.  Just as high fees does, as explained by smoothie.  You think the reason for the discrepancy is due to lack of trust in MtGox, even if every possible metric of trust show the opposite.  So I believe you are wrong, and I doubt you did the math yourself.

Sturle, we are both just trying to find the most accurate conclusion based on the data we have.  I've shown this chart over and over again, and while I thought it was self explanatory, evidently it isn't. You can see the prices diverge whenever there is a "crisis of confidence" event.

If you think the text on the graph proves anything, you are wrong.  My theory describe this better IMHO, and in addition doesn't need to hide the fact that MtGox is the most trusted of all the exchanges according to all the metrics.  There are various reasons for the lack of trust in other exchanges.  E.g. unanswered questions regarding regulatory status, lack of AML procedures, and in some cases obvious breach of laws.

[Rampion]

I think there is a lot of FUD going on, and a lot of panic that might be blown out of proportion.

I've not requested any withdrawal in July or August, but I did multiple high 5 figures withdrawals at the end of June (SEPA) and they cleared very fast (in the same week). I insist on this fact because even if it's true that at that time there was no "USD hiatus", people was already complaining very often about heavily delayed withdrawals (at that time especially SEPA).

This wasn't true in my case, and honestly, i realized that everybody complaining reports smallish withdrawals (less than $20k, normally less than $10k). I've not read a single complaint about people with big volume being unable to withdraw their funds, and believe me, if a trusted status member was unable to withdraw his $500k we would definitely read about that. To the contrary, people with biggish volumes and trusted status at Gox reported their money came thru the last weeks (two concrete names: mrbigggg and Epsiking - and both deal with USD).

Don't get me wrong, I acknowledge Gox is fucking up, they have ridiculous limits and they are fucking with a lot of customers, but I have the feeling they are not broke and they are just priorizing their biggest customers: this might feel bad to everyone else, but if they really have a hard limit of 10 daily transfer from a business POV it makes sense to take care first of your best customers, the ones that put the food on your table.

This said, their PR is shit, fear is spreading and tens of k's of coins are leavig Gox for good because of their ineptitude. I for one will bet on them solving their problems, as them were good to me... If price at Gox reaches $130 soon and the price difference with Bitstamp is still big i will sell a few hundreds of coins and ask for a withdrawal to try some arbitrage, and i promise to report back here. Let's see how this develops, it's am uncomfortable situation, but there is some profit to be made.

[sturle]

[It proves everything, and you'd have to be blind not to see it.  You can see the price divergence directly correlated with "Bad news" for Gox. 

We can probably discuss this forever, but your graph still hides a lot of facts.  E.g. everything before April.  The fact that BTC-E followed nicely before and after the first period in May, but went below both Bitstamp and MtGox during the first period of divergence in May.  Does that mean BTC-E is the most trusted of those three?  The CoinLab suit started almost two weeks before your rectangle naming it, and instead your rectangle conveniently includes the announcement of new verification requirements and the end of OKpay (fiat withdrawal difficulties).  To name a few examples.