MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering]

[zeroblock]

If you want to get some perspective on how large of a discrepancy 20% is, just take a look at the variance chart. I plotted the average daily value of Gox vs Bitstamp.  But for the price movement within the last 12 hrs, I picked a time period early in the morning where the discrepancy was highest.  Not only did the variance hit a record high of 14.68% Sunday (full day weighted average price), but it exploded through that to 20%. 

Yep, Bitstamp and other exchanges lag behind when there is a rally.  This isn't news.  Has been this way since MtGox grew to become the largest exchange.

Nope.  While it lags for a few minutes, sustained spread between exchanges is a recent phenomenon.  Those sustained spread periods are due to people losing trust in Gox. 

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[Traktion]

IS THIS REALLY A SIGN THAT ALL IS FINE AT MTGOX OR THE SIGN OF A "BANK RUN"?

If it was a bank run, the volume at other exchanges would equal that of MtGox because people were buying on MtGox to sell on other exchanges.  But it isn't.  Not even close.  Volume on MtGox today is much higher than on other exchanges.  USD volume alone is more than 3x the volume on Bitstamp, and 4x when you add up the rest of the currencies on MtGox.  No signs of empty hot wallet on MtGox today either, so probably just a normal rally where MtGox is leading as usual.

Not necessarily - They may just be buying BTC and transferring them to their personal wallets, before the price gets even higher.

[stereotype]

When i now load http://bitcoinwisdom.com/ , the Bitstamp graph is now default.

Someone who has collaborated with Gox, once said to me, "Mark knows its all over".

Just a matter of time, me thinks. But consider this. If Gox does finally die, and people get all their money back, should Mark be praised for the managed wind-down that appears to be taking place? Theres certainly an argument that says Gox could have easily taken a path worse than the present.  

[sturle]

If you want to get some perspective on how large of a discrepancy 20% is, just take a look at the variance chart. I plotted the average daily value of Gox vs Bitstamp.  But for the price movement within the last 12 hrs, I picked a time period early in the morning where the discrepancy was highest.  Not only did the variance hit a record high of 14.68% Sunday (full day weighted average price), but it exploded through that to 20%. 

Yep, Bitstamp and other exchanges lag behind when there is a rally.  This isn't news.  Has been this way since MtGox grew to become the largest exchange.

Nope.  While it lags for a few minutes, sustained spread between exchanges is a recent phenomenon.  Those sustained spread periods are due to people losing trust in Gox. 

Your 20% isn't sustained.  10% extra spread for hours isn't uncommon when MtGox leads a rally:

15:18 <gribble> mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 13.3164556962 %.

Do you think the sustained spread between BTC-E and Bitstamp is because people have more trust in BTC-E than in Bitstamp?  Some people in financial trouble are buying BTC at MtGox to sell at other exchanges, but this is hardly about trust, is it?  There are more than 68k BTC for sale in the order book on MtGox.  That's a lot of money for an untrusted exchange.
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[ardana123]

11:28 <@MagicalTux> fimp, sepa is going faster than wire right now
11:28 <@MagicalTux> except for emergency manual wires (but it's more expensive)

I guess this explains how some lucky people are making a killing doing arbitrage while most can't: Make MagicalTux a good offer and he's do the "expensive" "emergency manual wires".

Who are these people making a killing off "emergency manual wires"?

Why is this option not available to normal people?

Why is the "expensive" price not public?

The 14.59% spread indicates that there are not that many people getting a chance to arbitrage, but there probably are some (friends/family of mtgox staff?)...

my lord you are one paranoid fuck. if anyone was doing any arbitrage, the gap would be closing not growing further apart.

[sturle]

11:28 <@MagicalTux> fimp, sepa is going faster than wire right now
11:28 <@MagicalTux> except for emergency manual wires (but it's more expensive)

I guess this explains how some lucky people are making a killing doing arbitrage while most can't: Make MagicalTux a good offer and he's do the "expensive" "emergency manual wires".

Who are these people making a killing off "emergency manual wires"?

Why do you even bother to ask your question here?  Just ask support.  The bank fees for an overnight SWIFT transfers are steep.  I assume you have to be trusted to get that option, and it will probably not be a good idea if you transfer less than six digits of USD.

Anyone with a domestic bank account in Japan can make even better profit.  The fee for an overnight JPY withdrawal is only 200 JPY (2 USD).

Why is this option not available to normal people?
Why is the "expensive" price not public?

Eh?  If it has ever been a secret, it hasn't been well kept.  You don't impress anyone buy acting surprised.

The 14.59% spread indicates that there are not that many people getting a chance to arbitrage, but there probably are some (friends/family of mtgox staff?)...

Oh, please stop barfing all over the forum.  Are you drunk or something?

MtGox staff live in Japan, and I assume most of their friends and family do as well.  Why pay a high withdrawal fee for express SWIFT transfer, when you can get a cheap domestic transfer faster?  You should stop doing drugs.

[sturle]

Stop. Just stop.  Your analysis is awful. The 10-14% i've plotted is sustained throughout the day (weighted average price).  The 20% spread, which isn't on that chart, is a temporary state.  Nontheless there has never been a 20% price discrepancy before so it was a notworthy high variance.  

When did you get out of your diapers?  There has been spikes of > 20% many times.  E.g. during the crash from 260, and the rally afterwards.  Quite recently.

[zeroblock]

Stop. Just stop.  Your analysis is awful. The 10-14% i've plotted is sustained throughout the day (weighted average price).  The 20% spread, which isn't on that chart, is a temporary state.  Nontheless there has never been a 20% price discrepancy before so it was a notworthy high variance.  

When did you get out of your diapers?  There has been spikes of > 20% many times.  E.g. during the crash from 260, and the rally afterwards.  Quite recently.

Lol is that an attempt at an insult?  Actually no there hasn't been sustained 20% variances.  Maybe tiny blips for a few minutes but none that carry throughout the day.  Yesterday did have a 14.65% sustained spread though, an all time record high. 

[sturle]

Lol is that an attempt at an insult?  Actually no there hasn't been sustained 20% variances.  Maybe tiny blips for a few minutes but none that carry throughout the day.  Yesterday did have a 14.65% sustained spread though, an all time record high. 

20% wasn't sustained either.  Bitstamp followed MtGox's lead after a while, like a good dog.  A bit more reluctant than usual, but still did.  And spread is back to "normal" for the last week.

17:56 <gribble> mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 12.2196192237 %.

Your graph only starts at the end of April, and still has too few datapoints.

[zeroblock]

Lol is that an attempt at an insult?  Actually no there hasn't been sustained 20% variances.  Maybe tiny blips for a few minutes but none that carry throughout the day.  Yesterday did have a 14.65% sustained spread though, an all time record high.  

20% wasn't sustained either.  Bitstamp followed MtGox's lead after a while, like a good dog.  A bit more reluctant than usual, but still did.  And spread is back to "normal" for the last week.

17:56 <gribble> mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 12.2196192237 %.

Your graph only starts at the end of April, and still has too few datapoints.

I never said 20% was sustained.  See chart above.  You can easily see where price variations happen with a loss of faith at Gox.  There is plenty of data points to gain a good perspective on the issue.  Jesus you are a Gox fanboy with that dog statement.  So do you consider 10-15% spreads "normal" because it isn't normal and never has been between Gox and Bitstamp until Gox starting running into financial/legal problems! Charts above prove it!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=179586.msg2963387#msg2963387

[sturle]

20% wasn't sustained either.  Bitstamp followed MtGox's lead after a while, like a good dog.  A bit more reluctant than usual, but still did.  And spread is back to "normal" for the last week.

17:56 <gribble> mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 12.2196192237 %.

Your graph only starts at the end of April, and still has too few datapoints.

I never said 20% was sustained.  See chart above.  You can easily see where price variations happen with a loss of faith at Gox.  There is plenty of data points to gain a good perspective on the issue.  Jesus you are a Gox fanboy with that dog statement.  So do you consider 10-15% spreads "normal" because it isn't normal and never has been between Gox and Bitstamp until Gox starting running into financial/legal problems! Charts above prove it!

There is a different perspective which you are happy to ignore: Deposit problems at Bitstamp.  You have one exchange which many people can't withdraw fiat from, and another one which many people can't deposit fiat to.  The result can hardly surprise anyone, and has nothing to do about trust.

MtGox volume is many times the volume of Bitstamp.  The large leads the small.  Surprising?  No.

[joesmoe2012]

My wires to bitstamp usually clear the next business day. Never had an issue with bitstamp crediting wires.

[Walsoraj]

Someone who has collaborated with Gox, once said to me, "Mark knows its all over".

reveal source or gtfo w/ your fudding

[smoothie]

Lol is that an attempt at an insult?  Actually no there hasn't been sustained 20% variances.  Maybe tiny blips for a few minutes but none that carry throughout the day.  Yesterday did have a 14.65% sustained spread though, an all time record high. 

20% wasn't sustained either.  Bitstamp followed MtGox's lead after a while, like a good dog.  A bit more reluctant than usual, but still did.  And spread is back to "normal" for the last week.

17:56 <gribble> mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 12.2196192237 %.

Your graph only starts at the end of April, and still has too few datapoints.

MTGOX only started having really huge withdrawal of fiat problems since May 2013. So no zeroblock has enough data points to show the huge discrepancy in price holding above 14%.

[sturle]

MTGOX only started having really huge withdrawal of fiat problems since May 2013. So no zeroblock has enough data points to show the huge discrepancy in price holding above 14%.

Not to prove his claim of no such discrepancies before that date.  Try to make a similar graph for BTC-E and MtGox for the lifetime of BTC-E.  "Because BTC-E is more trusted?"  Nah.

[OhShei8e]

Someone who has collaborated with Gox, once said to me, "Mark knows its all over".

reveal source or gtfo w/ your fudding

Who cares. I used to trade at MtGox, have not had funds there or used it for ages but I did "collaborate" with them by trading there.

And I personally think that "Mark knows it's all over".

Now you have _a_ source: me.

Is this the new scientific standard?

And I personally think that the moon is made ​​of cheese. source: me.

[sturle]

And I personally think that "Mark knows it's all over".
Now you have _a_ source: me.

You think a lot of strange things.  Like that friends and family of MtGox staff has to pay a 5% fee to withdraw funds from MtGox, instead of the standard 200 yen fee for a next day domestic transfer, and present it like they have an advantage.  You are a troll, oyvinds.  Nothing less.  Your personal thoughts aren't worth much.

[smoothie]

MTGOX only started having really huge withdrawal of fiat problems since May 2013. So no zeroblock has enough data points to show the huge discrepancy in price holding above 14%.

Not to prove his claim of no such discrepancies before that date.  Try to make a similar graph for BTC-E and MtGox for the lifetime of BTC-E.  "Because BTC-E is more trusted?"  Nah.

BTC-e requires lots of fees to get fiat into and out of the exchange.

That spread has been known for a very LONG TIME.

This new spread between GOX and all other exchanges is nothing that has been explained thoroughly through fees etc and is not justified by anything I am aware of other than mistrust in the exchange itself.

[sturle]

MTGOX only started having really huge withdrawal of fiat problems since May 2013. So no zeroblock has enough data points to show the huge discrepancy in price holding above 14%.

Not to prove his claim of no such discrepancies before that date.  Try to make a similar graph for BTC-E and MtGox for the lifetime of BTC-E.  "Because BTC-E is more trusted?"  Nah.

BTC-e requires lots of fees to get fiat into and out of the exchange.

That spread has been known for a very LONG TIME.

This new spread between GOX and all other exchanges is nothing that has been explained thoroughly through fees etc and is not justified by anything I am aware of other than mistrust in the exchange itself.

Ah.  So the BTC-E discrepancy is due to difficulties getting fiat in and out of the exchange, while the MtGox discrepancy is due to distrust?  That's a new one!

If we are to believe the order books, a lot more BTC and their fiat is trusted to MtGox than to BTC-E.

I think it is the other way around.  Discrepancies are high for both due to difficulties getting fiat in or out.  MtGox price, volume, depth and liquidity is higher because people trust MtGox more than they trust BTC-E.

[zeroblock]

MTGOX only started having really huge withdrawal of fiat problems since May 2013. So no zeroblock has enough data points to show the huge discrepancy in price holding above 14%.

Not to prove his claim of no such discrepancies before that date.  Try to make a similar graph for BTC-E and MtGox for the lifetime of BTC-E.  "Because BTC-E is more trusted?"  Nah.

BTC-e requires lots of fees to get fiat into and out of the exchange.

That spread has been known for a very LONG TIME.

This new spread between GOX and all other exchanges is nothing that has been explained thoroughly through fees etc and is not justified by anything I am aware of other than mistrust in the exchange itself.

Ah.  So the BTC-E discrepancy is due to difficulties getting fiat in and out of the exchange, while the MtGox discrepancy is due to distrust?  That's a new one!

If we are to believe the order books, a lot more BTC and their fiat is trusted to MtGox than to BTC-E.

I think it is the other way around.  Discrepancies are high for both due to difficulties getting fiat in or out.  MtGox price, volume, depth and liquidity is higher because people trust MtGox more than they trust BTC-E.

That is incorrect.  The price discrepancy between BitStamp/Gox (12-15%) vs BitStamp/BTC-e (1-3%) is magnitudes smaller.  You are comparing apples to oranges.