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Author Topic: [1500 TH] p2pool: Decentralized, DoS-resistant, Hop-Proof pool  (Read 2578675 times)
gyverlb
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March 13, 2013, 01:44:57 AM
 #4621


Aside from the fact p2pool's 90 day "luck" is at 88.5%, and 30 day "luck" is at 57.1%.  Aside from that, yes, it's great.

M

I don't see what luck has to do with greatness. Past luck doesn't guarantee future luck...

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kano
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March 13, 2013, 03:49:56 AM
 #4622

Can you please share your settings with me? cgminer is able to get similar results?

Many people have said this, but I want to make sure lenny_ understands: The 10-15% "rejects" you see in p2pool have nothing to do with a decrease in income nor with wasted work. 10-15% rejects on p2pool is the same as 2-2.5% rejects on any other pool. The reason is that the p2pool sharechain is different (in behaviour) than the bitcoin blockchain.

I'm periodically fighting FUD of "p2pool sucks because they have a ridiculous reject ratio." I then explain it to people, with examples showing how you make more money with a 10-15% reject rate on p2pool than you would on a 2% reject rate on another pool. A few days later, someone else pops up and says the same thing.
...
Sorry, you are incorrect, since you have ignored pointing out the 2nd part of the reject issue:

The problem with 10-15% rejects is that means others on p2pool with 4-5% rejects are getting a greater proportion of each block vs their hash rate.

Yes if EVERYONE was mining at 10% rejects, then everyone would get the same proportion of income vs their hash rate.

However, those with better reject rates get a proportionately better payment rate and that extra comes from those with the worse reject rates.

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organofcorti
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March 13, 2013, 07:05:45 AM
 #4623

Good question, heading out but want to think about it a bit more later. I think it may has to do with conditional probability, which ties into gambler's fallacy (unless I'm reading this too quickly). ......

I just realised that I'd been misunderstanding you. The answer is simple to explain.

If the last n blocks are sufficiently unlucky that for 95 runs of n block solvings out of 100 those n blocks will have required fewer shares to solve, then by definition, the next n blocks will have a 95% probability of being "luckier" than the last n blocks.

Examples:
1. If one block required 3*D of D1 equivalent shares to be solved (CDF = ~ 0.95), then there is a 95% probability that the next block will take less than 3*D D1 equivalent shares to be solved.

2. If the last ten block required 15.7*D of D1 equivalent shares to be solved (CDF = ~ 0.95), then there is a 95% probability that the next ten blocks block will take less than 15.7*D of D1 equivalent shares to be solved.

As for my original example,
I have discovered
a trulymarvelous
proof of this, which
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Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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mdude77
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March 13, 2013, 10:18:52 AM
 #4624


Aside from the fact p2pool's 90 day "luck" is at 88.5%, and 30 day "luck" is at 57.1%.  Aside from that, yes, it's great.

M

I don't see what luck has to do with greatness. Past luck doesn't guarantee future luck...

Are you here for greatness or coins?  If the former, grats.  If the latter, you could do better at the most expensive PPS pool.

M

I mine at Kano's Pool because it pays the best and is completely transparent!  Come join me!
gyverlb
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March 13, 2013, 10:32:51 AM
 #4625


Aside from the fact p2pool's 90 day "luck" is at 88.5%, and 30 day "luck" is at 57.1%.  Aside from that, yes, it's great.

M

I don't see what luck has to do with greatness. Past luck doesn't guarantee future luck...

Are you here for greatness or coins?  If the former, grats.  If the latter, you could do better at the most expensive PPS pool.

M

Seems you didn't read me, so I repeat:

Past luck doesn't guarantee future luck...

P2pool tuning guide
Trade BTC for €/$ at bitcoin.de (referral), it's cheaper and faster (acts as escrow and lets the buyers do bank transfers).
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K1773R
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March 13, 2013, 11:33:04 AM
 #4626

Past luck doesn't guarantee future luck...
Past luck dosnt affect future's luck at all...

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gyverlb
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March 13, 2013, 11:40:04 AM
 #4627

Past luck doesn't guarantee future luck...
Past luck dosnt affect future's luck at all...
My point exactly (I was just paraphrasing the "past performance doesn't guarantee future results" disclaimer seen in investment contracts).

People using the "current" luck (which in fact is past luck) of a pool to decide if it's a good one to mine at simply don't understand mining.

I could understand using variance to choose a pool and admittedly it is not good on p2pool currently due to low hashrate.

P2pool tuning guide
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Aseras
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March 13, 2013, 03:20:41 PM
 #4628

Past luck doesn't guarantee future luck...
Past luck dosnt affect future's luck at all...

On p2pool, it does. If all the miners leave because they think the pool sucks, and the main page says they are loosing 50% of their income by staying here, then yeah, past luck is going to ruin future luck.

Luck in CO-OPs and pools like this is decided almost as much by faith. If p2pool had enough hashrate, everything would be fine.
stevegee58
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March 13, 2013, 03:27:40 PM
 #4629

We need some of these big new ASIC rigs that have been making the rounds lately on BTCGuild and eligius to show up at p2pool.

Heck, 1 of them would be nice.

You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
rav3n_pl
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March 13, 2013, 03:34:11 PM
 #4630

600GH total power and we all be happy.
About 3 blocks/day and every1 will want to mine in P2pool Smiley

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gyverlb
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March 13, 2013, 05:38:08 PM
 #4631

Past luck doesn't guarantee future luck...
Past luck dosnt affect future's luck at all...

On p2pool, it does. If all the miners leave because they think the pool sucks, and the main page says they are loosing 50% of their income by staying here, then yeah, past luck is going to ruin future luck.

You are mistaking variance with luck. I used p2pool for 6 month, variance over such a period is very small even with p2pool: my payments are currently equivalent to what I would have had with ~99.8% PPS.

P2pool tuning guide
Trade BTC for €/$ at bitcoin.de (referral), it's cheaper and faster (acts as escrow and lets the buyers do bank transfers).
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Aseras
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March 13, 2013, 08:31:12 PM
 #4632

We need some of these big new ASIC rigs that have been making the rounds lately on BTCGuild and eligius to show up at p2pool.

Heck, 1 of them would be nice.

I have a batch 1 order ( of several units ) and the same in batch 2. they'll be here as soon as they get to me and I can get them working.
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March 13, 2013, 09:38:11 PM
 #4633

If the last n blocks are sufficiently unlucky that for 95 runs of n block solvings out of 100 those n blocks will have required fewer shares to solve, then by definition, the next n blocks will have a 95% probability of being "luckier" than the last n blocks.

Ha, yes, if you are unlucky a lot, your next blocks are expected to be luckier than your unlucky blocks. It doesn't mean that your expected value changes, just your return compared to previous blocks. If I buy two lotto tickets, and lose the first one, my expected outcome of the second one is greater than the known result of the first one.
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March 13, 2013, 09:41:39 PM
Last edit: March 13, 2013, 09:52:39 PM by organofcorti
 #4634

If the last n blocks are sufficiently unlucky that for 95 runs of n block solvings out of 100 those n blocks will have required fewer shares to solve, then by definition, the next n blocks will have a 95% probability of being "luckier" than the last n blocks.

Ha, yes, if you are unlucky a lot, your next blocks are expected to be luckier than your unlucky blocks. It doesn't mean that your expected value changes, just your return compared to previous blocks. If I buy two lotto tickets, and lose the first one, my expected outcome of the second one is greater than the known result of the first one.

Just so. I thought that's what rav3n_pl meant - when luck has been bad it is more likely to get better than worse. Not better than expected, just better.

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maqifrnswa
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March 13, 2013, 09:42:35 PM
 #4635

Sorry, you are incorrect, since you have ignored pointing out the 2nd part of the reject issue:

The problem with 10-15% rejects is that means others on p2pool with 4-5% rejects are getting a greater proportion of each block vs their hash rate.

Yes if EVERYONE was mining at 10% rejects, then everyone would get the same proportion of income vs their hash rate.

However, those with better reject rates get a proportionately better payment rate and that extra comes from those with the worse reject rates.

That's true, and needs to be understood. Even so, I frequently am trying to explain p2pool to people that are getting just 4-5% rejects (that is, they are doing well compared to the network), and they still think they are losing money compared to other pools (when they are actually making more compared to other pools for being more efficient than others on p2pool).

All I was trying to emphasize is that reject rate on p2pool does not mean the same thing as reject rate on other pools.
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March 14, 2013, 12:17:35 AM
 #4636

Seems you didn't read me, so I repeat:

Past luck doesn't guarantee future luck...

I read it.  It's still down 90+ days.  It could be luck.  Or it could be something wrong.  Those 90+ days I've been doing a lot better elsewhere, and I have every reason to believe I'll continue to do better. 

It's your money.

M

I mine at Kano's Pool because it pays the best and is completely transparent!  Come join me!
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March 14, 2013, 12:27:43 AM
 #4637

No comments?

Indeed. It's also a shame, because if nothing is said or discussed about this problem P2pool will continue to lose miners and cease to exist. That would be a crying shame, because I believe it can work so much better than it is. This was my first and favorite pool, I like the idea of it very much, but at the moment - it's broken.

If it gets fixed, and I hope it does, I will have no problem joining it again.

And, look where we are now.......

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maqifrnswa
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March 14, 2013, 01:22:57 AM
 #4638

No comments?

Indeed. It's also a shame, because if nothing is said or discussed about this problem P2pool will continue to lose miners and cease to exist. That would be a crying shame, because I believe it can work so much better than it is. This was my first and favorite pool, I like the idea of it very much, but at the moment - it's broken.

If it gets fixed, and I hope it does, I will have no problem joining it again.

And, look where we are now.......

Comments about what? What problem needs to be fixed? Is there a bug (besides increased variance combined with increased expected time to solve blocks)?
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March 14, 2013, 01:28:23 AM
 #4639

No comments?

Indeed. It's also a shame, because if nothing is said or discussed about this problem P2pool will continue to lose miners and cease to exist. That would be a crying shame, because I believe it can work so much better than it is. This was my first and favorite pool, I like the idea of it very much, but at the moment - it's broken.

If it gets fixed, and I hope it does, I will have no problem joining it again.

And, look where we are now.......

Comments about what? What problem needs to be fixed? Is there a bug (besides increased variance combined with increased expected time to solve blocks)?

p2pool coincidentally went south after stratum support was added.  It's been down, quite a bit, since then, with no signs of coming back.

It could be all horrible luck.  But the longer it goes on, the less likely it is bad luck.

http://p2pool.info/

M

I mine at Kano's Pool because it pays the best and is completely transparent!  Come join me!
maqifrnswa
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March 14, 2013, 01:37:39 AM
 #4640

p2pool coincidentally went south after stratum support was added.  It's been down, quite a bit, since then, with no signs of coming back.

It could be all horrible luck.  But the longer it goes on, the less likely it is bad luck.

http://p2pool.info/

M

Thanks - my point is that it doesn't help to keep posting there is a problem without actually finding what the problem is (or if there even is a problem). It's all open source yet no one can find a problem with the code. While the luck charts make it look like something is wrong, other analysis shows that it may be working ok:

As a follow up to my last post, here's a better way of judging luck:



My point is to not assume something is wrong just because it feels wrong. It's your money, and can mine how you like - I just wanted to point out that there are no comments because as far as anyone can tell there is no problem.
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