ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[Vycid]

So there was no reason for panic selling after all.

It is great to see that the "epic" dividends everyone was expecting this week are going to be used to create extra hash rate.

It is beyond me why anyone would question friedcat's abilities to keep moving forward?  

Irrational sentiment, Exhibit A.

You guys are so used to incompetence in the ASIC industry you conflate competence with infallibility.

Competent competition is coming, unless you think the free market doesn't apply to Bitcoin mining.

[1714660277]

1714660277

[1714660277]

1714660277

[1714660277]

1714660277

[mechs]

I am not seeing any support or btct until 2.85BTC which we will probably get to and hang out around until next Wednesday. 
New prediction: we will see 2.5BTC before we see 3.7BTC 
I am actually short-term bearish but mid-term bullish.  I think FC will deliver before the competition and this will see mid-4s by year end.  But we are in for a couple disappointing dividend payments as short sighted investors fret about the cashflow going towards R&D and the dividend suffering.  Also, more Avalon chips and BFLs will come online before ASICMiner puts their new hashing tech online and our hashrate will likey slowly decline over the next month - this will further scare out the speculators.

[binaryFate]

Also, more Avalon chips and BFLs will come online before ASICMiner puts their new hashing tech online and our hashrate will likey slowly decline over the next month - this will further scare out the speculators.

They don't need the new tech to increase their hashrate. The current chips could mine for a long time still before electricity bills would make it problematic wrt competitors. I don't think we will see the hashrate decreasing over the next month. Remember the +200TH/s order? That would be close to 50% of the network right now, and some of it is ready already (as the new hw sales demonstrate).

[mechs]

Also, more Avalon chips and BFLs will come online before ASICMiner puts their new hashing tech online and our hashrate will likey slowly decline over the next month - this will further scare out the speculators.

They don't need the new tech to increase their hashrate. The current chips could mine for a long time still before electricity bills would make it problematic wrt competitors. I don't think we will see the hashrate decreasing over the next month. Remember the +200TH/s order? That would be close to 50% of the network right now, and some of it is ready already (as the new hw sales demonstrate).

The hashrate # will go up but what is importat is total % of network hashrate which I think will trend slowly down

[lophie]

I agree with you on that but spec wise they are pretty competitive found an interesting data piece comparing units

I wish I could sort that for "actual devices that exist"

+1, the only thing I am sad about that this happened while I need to sell a few shares for some "temporarily" cash flow....

[stripykitteh]

Bitfury's private pool has tossed another 7TH/s on the barbie since yesterday. Up to ~77TH/s:

https://ghash.io/

AM have never had a 3-day or 7-day average over 60TH/s:

http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/

[VeeMiner]

Bitfury's private pool has tossed another 7TH/s on the barbie since yesterday. Up to ~77TH/s:

https://ghash.io/

AM have never had a 3-day or 7-day average over 60TH/s:

http://runeks.dk/bitcoin/

obviously, the competition is getting stronger and there is nothing wrong with that. My faith in friedcat and his team is not lessened though. I just expect they will double the effort at creating more efficient chips.

[velacreations]

Labcoin up, AM down, same pattern we have seen for a few weeks, now.

[Rival]

Every horse in every race gets picked in the window by someone. There are plenty of rewards for win, place, and show, and even better for trifectas.

The point is, betting labcoin against AM as if it were a binary choice appears illogical. There will be room for win, place, and show. Just don't bet on a horse that stumbles at the gate.

[Pale Phoenix]

Every horse in every race gets picked in the window by someone. There are plenty of rewards for win, place, and show, and even better for trifectas.

The point is, betting labcoin against AM as if it were a binary choice appears illogical. There will be room for win, place, and show. Just don't bet on a horse that stumbles at the gate.

Great point. Of course, the problem is that it's very difficult to predict which horse might stumble, especially among the newcomers. All manner of problems could derail any of them, which is why the most logical bet has to be a company that has proven it can deliver, and there is only one of those open to public investment.

Which brings us to valuation. I don't think anyone can reasonably argue that margins aren't going to fall across the board, so picking a profitable entry / exit point may be just as important as the horse you choose to bet on.

[Vycid]

Every horse in every race gets picked in the window by someone. There are plenty of rewards for win, place, and show, and even better for trifectas.

The point is, betting labcoin against AM as if it were a binary choice appears illogical. There will be room for win, place, and show. Just don't bet on a horse that stumbles at the gate.

... horses what? Your posts are completely inscrutable.

There are ~25 BTC per block. If 10 companies spend the equivalent of 5 BTC to get a crack at that, nobody wins.

[supert]

Every horse in every race gets picked in the window by someone. There are plenty of rewards for win, place, and show, and even better for trifectas.

The point is, betting labcoin against AM as if it were a binary choice appears illogical. There will be room for win, place, and show. Just don't bet on a horse that stumbles at the gate.

It's a zero sum game.

[ThickAsThieves]

There are ~25 BTC per block. If 10 companies spend the equivalent of 5 BTC to get a crack at that, nobody wins.

It is definitely not that simple. The economics and strategic considerations get pretty complicated. Not to mention there are many unknowns.

There will certainly be losers, but there will also be winners.

[velacreations]

There are ~25 BTC per block. If 10 companies spend the equivalent of 5 BTC to get a crack at that, nobody wins.

It is definitely not that simple. The economics and strategic considerations get pretty complicated. Not to mention there are many unknowns.

There will certainly be losers, but there will also be winners.

not to mention multiple revenue streams that can change these equations for specific time frames.

[velacreations]

did AM just hit an all-time high for hash rate?

[PeterB]

Every horse in every race gets picked in the window by someone. There are plenty of rewards for win, place, and show, and even better for trifectas.

The point is, betting labcoin against AM as if it were a binary choice appears illogical. There will be room for win, place, and show. Just don't bet on a horse that stumbles at the gate.

... horses what? Your posts are completely inscrutable.

There are ~25 BTC per block. If 10 companies spend the equivalent of 5 BTC to get a crack at that, nobody wins.

Inscrutable?  I think its a fairly simple metaphor.  Horses = the companies producing ASICminers.  I tried to read the past 10 pages of the main AM thread, but it was a complete waste because of all of your garbage posts.  Now I can see why half of your posts are garbage since you refuse to think for a second to understand a simple metaphor.

Producing ASICs at cost and running them went from INSANELY profitable (see dividend payouts of AM) to really profitable.  Purchasing miners at retail prices is a different story.

If those 10 companies have different costs, strategies, and difficulties then there will still be some winners and some losers.  I appreciate your skepticism and the sentiment behind your posts, but your tone and extreme views just make your posts worthless FUD.

[Vycid]

Every horse in every race gets picked in the window by someone. There are plenty of rewards for win, place, and show, and even better for trifectas.

The point is, betting labcoin against AM as if it were a binary choice appears illogical. There will be room for win, place, and show. Just don't bet on a horse that stumbles at the gate.

... horses what? Your posts are completely inscrutable.

There are ~25 BTC per block. If 10 companies spend the equivalent of 5 BTC to get a crack at that, nobody wins.

Inscrutable?  I think its a fairly simple metaphor.  Horses = the companies producing ASICminers.  I tried to read the past 10 pages of the main AM thread, but it was a complete waste because of all of your garbage posts.  Now I can see why half of your posts are garbage since you refuse to think for a second to understand a simple metaphor.

Producing ASICs at cost and running them went from INSANELY profitable (see dividend payouts of AM) to really profitable.  Purchasing miners at retail prices is a different story.

If those 10 companies have different costs, strategies, and difficulties then there will still be some winners and some losers.  I appreciate your skepticism and the sentiment behind your posts, but your tone and extreme views just make your posts worthless FUD.

The point behind his post was that in horse races there is a winner (and runner-up prizes too), even though people will bet on horses that don't win.

My point is that this isn't a horse race- in fact it is nothing like one. It is quite likely nobody will be a winner a few months from now, so the analogy is useless. This has the potential to be a negative-sum game (I'll talk about the concept of "overshoot" in the context of revolutionary change in a later post).

Apologies for butting in again. I had promised to stop.

[OneBTCJay]

How would transaction fees factor into this horse race? Can't even a small processor make money on fees eventually.

[superduh]

How would transaction fees factor into this horse race? Can't even a small processor make money on fees eventually.

depends on how much the fees become per block - more transactions - higher transactions - more people paying fees - bicoin  works

[PeterB]

The point behind his post was that in horse races there is a winner (and runner-up prizes too), even though people will bet on horses that don't win.

My point is that this isn't a horse race- in fact it is nothing like one. It is quite likely nobody will be a winner a few months from now, so the analogy is useless. This has the potential to be a negative-sum game (I'll talk about the concept of "overshoot" in the context of revolutionary change in a later post).

Apologies for butting in again. I had promised to stop.

O, that was the point?  I thought you said the post / metaphor was inscrutable?   

I respect your view, but personally I believe we are not even close to that point and mining will still be profitable for companies producing at manufacturing cost.  Also I think if bitcoin continues to grow and thrive, it will continue to appreciate which will help keep mining profitable.  We'll see what happens!