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Author Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread  (Read 808627 times)
Gomeler
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July 01, 2013, 05:43:19 PM
 #1061

he should have set the price at the 24 hr high, I hate it when he holds the price down like this.

Buy into his wall then and liquidate when the wall is eaten.
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The Bitcoin software, network, and concept is called "Bitcoin" with a capitalized "B". Bitcoin currency units are called "bitcoins" with a lowercase "b" -- this is often abbreviated BTC.
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velacreations (OP)
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July 01, 2013, 05:52:51 PM
 #1062

he should have set the price at the 24 hr high, I hate it when he holds the price down like this.

Buy into his wall then and liquidate when the wall is eaten.

if I had the coins, I would, but I can't.  And now, the price is lower on the PTs than his wall, so no good getting coins, there, either.  His minimum is 20 shares, I don't have the liquid coins for that.

anyways, already ~500 shares sold.

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July 01, 2013, 06:03:29 PM
 #1063

he should have set the price at the 24 hr high, I hate it when he holds the price down like this.

Buy into his wall then and liquidate when the wall is eaten.

if I had the coins, I would, but I can't.  And now, the price is lower on the PTs than his wall, so no good getting coins, there, either.  His minimum is 20 shares, I don't have the liquid coins for that.

anyways, already ~500 shares sold.

Actually the btct ask price is now back over 4.5, probably people just bought at the auction putting them up for sale.
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July 01, 2013, 06:31:33 PM
 #1064

Here's what I anticipate will happen within the next 48 hours.  Someone(s) will decide to cash in a fuck ton of shares, which in turn will initiate a panic sale on behalf of the newbs, which I would not be surprised if it bottoms out as low as 2.5.  Then the high rollers will swoop in before the dividend is announced (which apparently is going to be epic this week) and attempt to regain the shares that they sold plus a few extras at a lower price, thus securing them a hefty dividend, and a little profit to do with what they will.  Then again, I could be totally wrong.

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TsuyokuNaritai
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July 01, 2013, 06:46:45 PM
 #1065

Someone(s) will decide to cash in a fuck ton of shares, which in turn will initiate a panic sale on behalf of the newbs, which I would not be surprised if it bottoms out as low as 2.5.

Someone already cashed in one of those* an hour or so ago. The wall is already half eaten, and the price on the exchanges is already back over 4.5.

*1000 AM shares = 1 metric fuck ton.

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July 01, 2013, 06:48:17 PM
 #1066

Here's what I anticipate will happen within the next 48 hours.  Someone(s) will decide to cash in a fuck ton of shares, which in turn will initiate a panic sale on behalf of the newbs, which I would not be surprised if it bottoms out as low as 2.5.  Then the high rollers will swoop in before the dividend is announced (which apparently is going to be epic this week) and attempt to regain the shares that they sold plus a few extras at a lower price, thus securing them a hefty dividend, and a little profit to do with what they will.  Then again, I could be totally wrong.

Someone already cashed in one of those* an hour or so ago. The wall is already half eaten, and the price on the exchanges is already back over 4.5.

*1000 AM shares = 1 metric fuck ton.

Maybe 10 Metric fuck tons then.  Grin

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July 01, 2013, 06:49:24 PM
 #1067

Here's what I anticipate will happen within the next 48 hours.  Someone(s) will decide to cash in a fuck ton of shares, which in turn will initiate a panic sale on behalf of the newbs, which I would not be surprised if it bottoms out as low as 2.5.  Then the high rollers will swoop in before the dividend is announced (which apparently is going to be epic this week) and attempt to regain the shares that they sold plus a few extras at a lower price, thus securing them a hefty dividend, and a little profit to do with what they will.  Then again, I could be totally wrong.

Well, I disagree. I think there is little relevance of "panic sale from newbs" in AM, far less than in many other things in BTC, and beyond in life.
We'll see quickly anyway. My guess is we'll pass 5 tonight or tomorrow.

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
TsuyokuNaritai
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July 01, 2013, 06:55:43 PM
 #1068

Here's what I anticipate will happen within the next 48 hours.  Someone(s) will decide to cash in a fuck ton of shares, which in turn will initiate a panic sale on behalf of the newbs, which I would not be surprised if it bottoms out as low as 2.5.  Then the high rollers will swoop in before the dividend is announced (which apparently is going to be epic this week) and attempt to regain the shares that they sold plus a few extras at a lower price, thus securing them a hefty dividend, and a little profit to do with what they will.  Then again, I could be totally wrong.

Someone already cashed in one of those* an hour or so ago. The wall is already half eaten, and the price on the exchanges is already back over 4.5.

*1000 AM shares = 1 metric fuck ton.

Maybe 10 Metric fuck tons then.  Grin

The only person both rich enough and just-take-my-bitcoins-I-never-loved-them-anyway enough to sell MFTs in that particular way only has 6.5 MFTs left, and he to needs to keep 5 MFTs to hang on to his board seat.

velacreations (OP)
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July 01, 2013, 07:20:52 PM
 #1069

no one in their right mind would sell right now. we all know it will be 5.5 after dividends are announced.

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July 01, 2013, 07:23:46 PM
 #1070

no one in their right mind would sell right now. we all know it will be 5.5 after dividends are announced.

comments like this make me want to sell 50%

CMMPro
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July 01, 2013, 07:27:55 PM
 #1071

I sold a bit and now I'm holding only shares bought with profit.
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July 01, 2013, 07:30:10 PM
 #1072

no one in their right mind would sell right now. we all know it will be 5.5 after dividends are announced.

comments like this make me want to sell 50%

Comments like that were being made about the $250 bitcoin not long ago. We all knew it'd be $1000 after the public caught on Sad

No longer buying/selling Casascius coins. Beware scammers.
My OTC Web of Trust ratings / What's a PGP chain of custody?
velacreations (OP)
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July 01, 2013, 09:15:05 PM
 #1073

Comments like that were being made about the $250 bitcoin not long ago. We all knew it'd be $1000 after the public caught on Sad

comments like that were being made when AM was passing 1 btc...

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July 01, 2013, 09:18:41 PM
 #1074

Comments like that were being made about the $250 bitcoin not long ago. We all knew it'd be $1000 after the public caught on Sad

comments like that were being made when AM was passing 1 btc...

Too true.

As with so many other things, it all comes down to timing Smiley

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SoylentCreek
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July 01, 2013, 11:15:04 PM
 #1075

Comments like that were being made about the $250 bitcoin not long ago. We all knew it'd be $1000 after the public caught on Sad

comments like that were being made when AM was passing 1 btc...

Sure, but I have to wonder how many of the people buying in are the ones thinking that AM is planning on cranking out a petahash by the end of the year.  I think once many of them realize that they were referring to the total network hashrate, many of the newcomers will start jumping ship.  I don't think that we are necessarily "in a bubble" as of yet, but I do think that we are primed for a flash crash.  There are plenty of people who want to collect as many shares as possible for when the dividend goes live tomorrow.

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velacreations (OP)
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July 02, 2013, 12:10:31 AM
 #1076

well, no one is even talking about the new blade designs, the new mini blades, or the USB sales, either, all of which are going to greatly increase the dividends int he coming weeks.

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July 02, 2013, 03:18:05 AM
 #1077

It is over-valued by at least a factor of two. Where can I short?

Digital Gold for Gamblers and True Believers
Pierre
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July 02, 2013, 03:26:01 AM
 #1078

Where can I short?
Right here https://btct.co/security/ASICMINER-PT
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July 02, 2013, 03:29:12 AM
 #1079

It is over-valued by at least a factor of two. Where can I short?

At the moment none of the exchanges offer margin or shorting, so you'd have to convince someone to lend you the shares OTC. (And it probably wouldn't be cheap, you'd have to pay the divs out of pocket and interest to boot.) Guessing you'd also probably have to put enough btc to cover at least 1.5-2 times the current value of the shares in escrow. (With John K or some other trusted party).

Post an offer, perhaps someone will bite. (But be very careful, I think your math is flawed, and you have deeply underestimated the value of AM shares.)

-helixone

P.S. - I'd even consider lending you shares, if I wasn't concerned about the counterparty risk of not getting the shares back, when your bet fails.
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July 02, 2013, 03:33:15 AM
 #1080

It is over-valued by at least a factor of two. Where can I short?
At the moment none of the exchanges offer margin or shorting, so you'd have to convince someone to lend you the shares OTC.
BTC-TC has call and put options
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