ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[deltanine]

The reason you guys claim I was trolling is simply because you didn't like what I was saying, even though what I was saying has proven to be true.

Your track record isn't as spotless as you would like to think.  Here's something you said back on June 22nd.

Over the next few months, you'll see a decline in AM dividends and anyone claiming otherwise is talking out their arse in order to try and inflate the share price even further.

Now here we are in the beginning of August.  I do not see any drop in divs since you posted this.  Here is what actually happened with divs since you posted that:
0.01810108
0.01938069
0.02297025
0.02075485
0.02536692
0.02405901
0.01858868

Where is the drop?  Keep in mind this is a far greater performance than back in early May where the divs were around 0.007 per share.

I'd like to see if you can't redeem yourself over that obvious missed call.  So, let me ask your honest opinion about something you have yet to comment about.  How do you think Friedcat's new franchising program will affect AM's divs and share price in the future.

Why didn't you post the divs from just before that? Let me correct that error for you.

0.01810108

0.03628311
0.03814687
0.02653753
0.02084164
0.03622410

But in early May we were at 0.0007.  Divs are up.  Can't you do simple maths?

Are why didn't you answer my question about AM franchising?

[1714681204]

1714681204

[1714681204]

1714681204

[Mabsark]

The reason you guys claim I was trolling is simply because you didn't like what I was saying, even though what I was saying has proven to be true.

Your track record isn't as spotless as you would like to think.  Here's something you said back on June 22nd.

Over the next few months, you'll see a decline in AM dividends and anyone claiming otherwise is talking out their arse in order to try and inflate the share price even further.

Now here we are in the beginning of August.  I do not see any drop in divs since you posted this.  Here is what actually happened with divs since you posted that:
0.01810108
0.01938069
0.02297025
0.02075485
0.02536692
0.02405901
0.01858868

Where is the drop?  Keep in mind this is a far greater performance than back in early May where the divs were around 0.007 per share.

I'd like to see if you can't redeem yourself over that obvious missed call.  So, let me ask your honest opinion about something you have yet to comment about.  How do you think Friedcat's new franchising program will affect AM's divs and share price in the future.

Why didn't you post the divs from just before that? Let me correct that error for you.

0.01810108

0.03628311
0.03814687
0.02653753
0.02084164
0.03622410

But in early May we were at 0.0007.  Divs are up.  Can't you do simple maths?

Are why didn't you answer my question about AM franchising?

I've already explained why divs and share price increased. Lack of competition. As for the franchise question, I just didn't see it so I'll answer that now.

I have no idea on the effect it will have. I will reserve my judgement for when I see some data which I can then use to form an opinion.

[deltanine]

My point in posting those previous divs was to show that deltanine was being highly selective, starting from a point after divs had just halved.

Let's set the record straight.  On June 20th we got a div of 0.01810108 per share.  On June 22nd you said divs would begin to drop.  Over the next two months divs have not dropped a single satoshi.  Can't you do simple maths?

[Lohoris]

Again, if anyone was wondering why did he end up in some ignore lists...

[Mabsark]

My point in posting those previous divs was to show that deltanine was being highly selective, starting from a point after divs had just halved.

Let's set the record straight.  On June 20th we got a div of 0.01810108 per share.  On June 22nd you said divs would begin to drop.  Over the next two months divs have not dropped a single satoshi.  Can't you do simple maths?

Why don't you quote the post of mine you are referring to? I'm pretty sure the gist of my argument was that divs and share price would drop as the competition set to arrive in the coming months came online.

[Mabsark]

Again, if anyone was wondering why did he end up in some ignore lists...

For posting facts and maths which some people don't seem to like?

[deltanine]

My point in posting those previous divs was to show that deltanine was being highly selective, starting from a point after divs had just halved.

Let's set the record straight.  On June 20th we got a div of 0.01810108 per share.  On June 22nd you said divs would begin to drop.  Over the next two months divs have not dropped a single satoshi.  Can't you do simple maths?

Why don't you quote the post of mine you are referring to? I'm pretty sure the gist of my argument was that divs and share price would drop as the competition set to arrive in the coming months came online.

I actually like your posts.  You have a unique perspective as far as I'm concerned.  You approach your investment as a miner and you have a keen understanding of difficulty and hash rate.  What gets tiresome is that you tend to get frustrated and insulting when others don't agree with you.  This is why you get labelled a troll and put on ignore.  As a miner you were appalled that AM was charging so much for their product.  To you this appears to be price gauging, making it more costly for you to mine coins if you were to purchase from AM.  But its actually maximizing AM price points, which is in the shareholders' best interest.  AM was able to do this because they have yet to see serious competition arrive.

Although you have an advantage by being knowledgable about mining, you are missing something hugely important.  AM is first and foremost a hardware manufacturer who mines on the side.  AsicMiner WANTS the competition because then they are able to sell more hardware.  As competition grows difficulty rises, which rises the demand for ASICs.  It doesn't matter from whom.  Everyone one knows that demand for ASIC tech is already sky high.  If serious competition finally arrives as you say it will, difficulty will rise exponentially.   Just imagine what demand will be like then.

But if that competition never substantially materializes, demand will still be high and AM can continue maximizing their price point.  Plus AM will have a greater sare of the global hash rate.

Bottom line.  Divs aren't going down any time soon.

[Jutarul]

... I'm pretty sure the gist of my argument was that divs and share price would drop as the competition set to arrive in the coming months came online.

.....As a miner you were appalled that AM was charging so much for their product.  To you this appears to be price gauging, making it more costly for you to mine coins if you were to purchase from AM.  But its actually maximizing AM price points, which is in the shareholders' best interest.  AM was able to do this because they have yet to see serious competition arrive.
...

Both are valid points.

Mabsark makes the point that by charging fair market prices for the hardware, the supplier actually disenfranchises the little player, because the price points are close the projected theoretical yield value (a natural outcome of market economy!!). Know that it is even worse with other companies who have opted to accept preorders, as their delivery delays actually may cause the hardware to have "unanticipated" ROI failures.

It is worth considering what would happen if AM charges below the free market value (i.e. would discount) for their hardware. It would instantly sell out and leave the market at a vacuum - and the resale market would thrive with products which were bought at those discounts. Offering products below free market value feeds the speculators with no benefit to AM. Instead it makes more sense for AM to establish solid sales channels and give any discounts to those established contacts, thus handing down the profits in an orderly fashion.

But the critique still stands - how can the supplier "enfranchise" the little guy again? I guess the latest announcement by friedcat is a step in the right direction, where miners do the heavy lifting of running the equipment and get a fair share for maintaining it, without the risk of ROI failures. It's also more in the spirit of decentralization, where the "voting power" resides with the little guy.

I am afraid to say it, but the time of 10-fold ROI on mining equipment for the little guy is over. The opportunity now shifts towards access to excess power. Please note that the characteristics of excess power are interesting: It's highly decentralized and opportunistic and it's a management nightmare for any big player. So it actually has diseconomy of scale per location. It may be very fruit-full to service this field using a business model that works for all involved players.

Hope that clears things up.

[deltanine]

I am afraid to say it, but the time of 10-fold ROI on mining equipment for the little guy is over. The opportunity now shifts towards access to excess power. Please note that the characteristics of excess power are interesting: It's highly decentralized and opportunistic and it's a management nightmare for any big player. So it actually has diseconomy of scale per location. It may be very fruit-full to service this field using a business model that works for all involved players.

Hope that clears things up.

Since the little guy is unable to satisfy his greed with a 10-fold ROI I would suggest he invest in mining securities.  Especially ones with high APR and managers that have a good track record.

[empoweoqwj]

What astonishes me is how many little guys out there (buying USB sticks, graphic cards etc) think there is still a profit to be turned from their dinky little devices.

Ignorance is bliss I suppose, just costly bliss 

[helixone]

What astonishes me is how many little guys out there (buying USB sticks, graphic cards etc) think there is still a profit to be turned from their dinky little devices.

Ignorance is bliss I suppose, just costly bliss 

I haven't done the math super recently, but at BTC's current price, if your HW is paid for already, and your electricity costs are low enough GPU mining *might* still be marginally profitable. But not as profitable as altcoin mining with GPUs.

-helixone

[culexevilman]

whats up with the price drop now?

[empoweoqwj]

What astonishes me is how many little guys out there (buying USB sticks, graphic cards etc) think there is still a profit to be turned from their dinky little devices.

Ignorance is bliss I suppose, just costly bliss 

I haven't done the math super recently, but at BTC's current price, if your HW is paid for already, and your electricity costs are low enough GPU mining *might* still be marginally profitable. But not as profitable as altcoin mining with GPUs.

-helixone

If ifs and ands were pots and pans there'd be no work for tinkers' hands.

[freedomno1]

whats up with the price drop now?

Garden walls about to break

[empoweoqwj]

whats up with the price drop now?

People have limited bitcoins. If you want to invest in (yet) another start-up, you've gotta get the coins from somewhere. Now if only there was a way to make coins yourself  

[culexevilman]

should I buy btcgarden or pickup more cheap AM?

[g83]

i think lot of people sold shares to invest in other projects for example mining equipement or new startups / ipos

me myself sold some shares to get some more miners too but i'm going to buy shares back with the profit i make on these :-)

[freedomno1]

should I buy btcgarden or pickup more cheap AM?

Depends on if you are you leaning towards yield or potential growth but higher risk

[g83]

in long term it will keep growing imo

[empoweoqwj]

should I buy btcgarden or pickup more cheap AM?

"Cheap" is in the eye of the beholder

Who knows? Is 0.016 cheap for bitgarden. Is 4.0 cheap for AM? Only Stewie and his time machine knows .... for the rest of us, its just a lucky dip really.

I certainly sold a few shares in AM to get into bitgarden but it was less than 1% of my AM holdings so it was worth the diversification just in case BitGarden proves to be anything like the next AM

If I only had a few AM shares I certainly wouldn't have sold  them to put into BitGarden.