ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[mechs]

The new pastime for mining start-ups seems to be advertising "projected" percentage of global hashrate. FC has always said he was targeting 10%-15% I believe. He so far has been the only entity capable of consistently hitting that target. Several others have included numbers in their offerings claiming numbers all the way to 35% as future targets.

A quick back of the envelope calculation from issuers projections from the securities listed on BTC-TC gives you (when taken together) over 180% of the global hash.

I would tend to think that some of these projections might be overly optimistic, but that is only if you use that math stuff. Realistically, I tend to think that most it not all of these projections will under-perform significantly. I also do not believe that any other endeavor has a remote chance of cutting into AM 10%-15%. So they will all have to beat each other to death (along with all of the pool-miners) for the remaining 85%.

If you buy these shares with the expectation that they will achieve a certain percentage of global hash, you will stand to lose considerable assets.

Others promise. pre-roasted cat  baked cat Fried Cat delivers.

As I read this thread, I do sense the type of fanboy optimism that Apple shares had on their way up.  Remember, when expectations are so high and baked into the prices, especially with history of consistently beating expectations, any slight miss can be devastating go the share price as the weak knee speculators run for the exits.  I think AM has a bright future, but likely to be a better entry point in the future and keeping my coins on the sideline for now.

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[michaelGedi]

for some reason I sold all my shares at 3.8x, I had just returned from holiday and didn't know what was going on I guess... hashrate down, blabla...


Buy back now?


I will have lost one whole share if I do, but at least I'm still with AM (who I had planned to stick with for at least 6 months... that's 4 months to go...)

[Ninshatamoto]

for some reason I sold all my shares at 3.8x, I had just returned from holiday and didn't know what was going on I guess... hashrate down, blabla...


Buy back now?


I will have lost one whole share if I do, but at least I'm still with AM (who I had planned to stick with for at least 6 months... that's 4 months to go...)

The XBOND IPO that just launched on Havelock resulted in a lot of people liquidating their ASICMINER shares to free up some money for it...I doubt you will find a better time to buy back in than right now.  I saw Passthrough shares at .0368

[Mabsark]

for some reason I sold all my shares at 3.8x, I had just returned from holiday and didn't know what was going on I guess... hashrate down, blabla...


Buy back now?


I will have lost one whole share if I do, but at least I'm still with AM (who I had planned to stick with for at least 6 months... that's 4 months to go...)

The XBOND IPO that just launched on Havelock resulted in a lot of people liquidating their ASICMINER shares to free up some money for it...I doubt you will find a better time to buy back in than right now.  I saw Passthrough shares at .0368

I wouldn't buy anything from TAT due to him putting me on his ignore list. Why did he do that? Because I posted in this thread saying that AM's dividends and share price would drop as competition arrives in the coming months. Most people here called me a troll, even though I was posting facts and using maths to backup those facts. As it turned out, what I said would happen, did happen.

TAT is a fanboy (sycophant as opposed to a fan) and that fanyboyism has lost him an investor.

As for AMs fall in price, this is just the beginning. I've already posted the maths to show this so I won't go over that again as it just makes people here angry and upset. I wouldn't be surprised if AM shares were back down to 2.x by the end of the year.

[ThickAsThieves]

for some reason I sold all my shares at 3.8x, I had just returned from holiday and didn't know what was going on I guess... hashrate down, blabla...


Buy back now?


I will have lost one whole share if I do, but at least I'm still with AM (who I had planned to stick with for at least 6 months... that's 4 months to go...)

The XBOND IPO that just launched on Havelock resulted in a lot of people liquidating their ASICMINER shares to free up some money for it...I doubt you will find a better time to buy back in than right now.  I saw Passthrough shares at .0368

I wouldn't buy anything from TAT due to him putting me on his ignore list. Why did he do that? Because I posted in this thread saying that AM's dividends and share price would drop as competition arrives in the coming months. Most people here called me a troll, even though I was posting facts and using maths to backup those facts. As it turned out, what I said would happen, did happen.

TAT is a fanboy (sycophant as opposed to a fan) and that fanyboyism has lost him an investor.

As for AMs fall in price, this is just the beginning. I've already posted the maths to show this so I won't go over that again as it just makes people here angry and upset. I wouldn't be surprised if AM shares were back down to 2.x by the end of the year.

I don't recall how or why it happened, but you don't seem to be on my ignore list presently. I'm pretty liberal with putting people on ignore in the forums, so much noise to filter, but your posts are coming through just fine for now.

[Mabsark]

for some reason I sold all my shares at 3.8x, I had just returned from holiday and didn't know what was going on I guess... hashrate down, blabla...


Buy back now?


I will have lost one whole share if I do, but at least I'm still with AM (who I had planned to stick with for at least 6 months... that's 4 months to go...)

The XBOND IPO that just launched on Havelock resulted in a lot of people liquidating their ASICMINER shares to free up some money for it...I doubt you will find a better time to buy back in than right now.  I saw Passthrough shares at .0368

I wouldn't buy anything from TAT due to him putting me on his ignore list. Why did he do that? Because I posted in this thread saying that AM's dividends and share price would drop as competition arrives in the coming months. Most people here called me a troll, even though I was posting facts and using maths to backup those facts. As it turned out, what I said would happen, did happen.

TAT is a fanboy (sycophant as opposed to a fan) and that fanyboyism has lost him an investor.

As for AMs fall in price, this is just the beginning. I've already posted the maths to show this so I won't go over that again as it just makes people here angry and upset. I wouldn't be surprised if AM shares were back down to 2.x by the end of the year.

I don't recall how or why it happened, but you don't seem to be on my ignore list presently. I'm pretty liberal with putting people on ignore in the forums, so much noise to filter, but your posts are coming through just fine for now.

Well in that case I apologise for calling you a fanboy and will once again consider purchasing your assets.

[nubbins]

Phew! Conflict avoided

[Lohoris]

I don't recall how or why it happened, but you don't seem to be on my ignore list presently. I'm pretty liberal with putting people on ignore in the forums, so much noise to filter, but your posts are coming through just fine for now.

I'm not sure how he's posting now, since he's long been put in my ignore, but when I first noticed him we kept on trolling heavily for days.
If he's stopped, fine.

[Mabsark]

I don't recall how or why it happened, but you don't seem to be on my ignore list presently. I'm pretty liberal with putting people on ignore in the forums, so much noise to filter, but your posts are coming through just fine for now.

I'm not sure how he's posting now, since he's long been put in my ignore, but when I first noticed him we kept on trolling heavily for days.
If he's stopped, fine.

I wasn't trolling at all. A lot of people replied to me in a short amount of time, leading me to make about 10 or so comments in a similar short amount of time. That's not trolling, that's how discussions work. The reason you guys claim I was trolling is simply because you didn't like what I was saying, even though what I was saying has proven to be true. Most people here were claiming that dividends would shoot up to 0.05 BTC and the share price would hit 10+ BTC, whereas I was claiming that dividends would decrease as would share price due to incoming competition.

Now that I've made 2 comments in a short period of time, I guess that means I'm trolling again. 

[deltanine]

I don't recall how or why it happened, but you don't seem to be on my ignore list presently. I'm pretty liberal with putting people on ignore in the forums, so much noise to filter, but your posts are coming through just fine for now.

I'm not sure how he's posting now, since he's long been put in my ignore, but when I first noticed him we kept on trolling heavily for days.
If he's stopped, fine.

Speaking as someone who has not put him on ignore I can confirm that he has stopped trolling.  Except for just now as he couched his comments with an "I told you so" about the price dropping.  Although he didn't really tell us so as he has been saying all along that AM would drop to the 2's.  This obviously hasn't happened.

[deltanine]

I don't recall how or why it happened, but you don't seem to be on my ignore list presently. I'm pretty liberal with putting people on ignore in the forums, so much noise to filter, but your posts are coming through just fine for now.

I'm not sure how he's posting now, since he's long been put in my ignore, but when I first noticed him we kept on trolling heavily for days.
If he's stopped, fine.

I wasn't trolling at all. A lot of people replied to me in a short amount of time, leading me to make about 10 or so comments in a similar short amount of time. That's not trolling, that's how discussions work. The reason you guys claim I was trolling is simply because you didn't like what I was saying, even though what I was saying has proven to be true. Most people here were claiming that dividends would shoot up to 0.05 BTC and the share price would hit 10+ BTC, whereas I was claiming that dividends would decrease as would share price due to incoming competition.

Now that I've made 2 comments in a short period of time, I guess that means I'm trolling again. 

Yes.

[freedomno1]

I swear I'm on all the ignore lists I just don't have a yellow color since I lack the ability to be ignored in style
I have yet to ignore someone so I see all your messages hehe.

Back to AM speculation the price might drop a bit more but its really hard to tell some equity left to hold some IPO shares in other companys now that the super zomg buy sentiment is fading in the meantime it only takes one of the new batch succeeding and getting some network to make the valuation a bit lower but I guess we will wait though.
Also prediction was owned by the IPO's it was right for a few days though xd
Friedcat has proven himself the others have to prove themselves
Stock price aside AM is a good investment for its Yield just need to make sure you get in without the price dropping to much on you

[deltanine]

The reason you guys claim I was trolling is simply because you didn't like what I was saying, even though what I was saying has proven to be true.

Your track record isn't as spotless as you would like to think.  Here's something you said back on June 22nd.

Over the next few months, you'll see a decline in AM dividends and anyone claiming otherwise is talking out their arse in order to try and inflate the share price even further.

Now here we are in the beginning of August.  I do not see any drop in divs since you posted this.  Here is what actually happened with divs since you posted that:
0.01810108
0.01938069
0.02297025
0.02075485
0.02536692
0.02405901
0.01858868

Where is the drop?  Keep in mind this is a far greater performance than back in early May where the divs were around 0.007 per share.

I'd like to see if you can't redeem yourself over that obvious missed call.  So, let me ask your honest opinion about something you have yet to comment about.  How do you think Friedcat's new franchising program will affect AM's divs and share price in the future.

[velacreations]

look!  I said price will drop!  I am psychic! 

[velacreations]

.... Because I posted in this thread saying that AM's dividends and share price would drop as competition arrives in the coming months. ....

by the way, you can get a refund from BFL, if you paid via paypal: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.20

the current price of AM and most securities right now is due to IPO mania that is currently sweeping bitcoin securities.

30% APR?  pffff!!!!  I want 1000% in 12 hours!

this will correct itself in due time. 

[Mabsark]

The reason you guys claim I was trolling is simply because you didn't like what I was saying, even though what I was saying has proven to be true.

Your track record isn't as spotless as you would like to think.  Here's something you said back on June 22nd.

Over the next few months, you'll see a decline in AM dividends and anyone claiming otherwise is talking out their arse in order to try and inflate the share price even further.

Now here we are in the beginning of August.  I do not see any drop in divs since you posted this.  Here is what actually happened with divs since you posted that:
0.01810108
0.01938069
0.02297025
0.02075485
0.02536692
0.02405901
0.01858868

Where is the drop?  Keep in mind this is a far greater performance than back in early May where the divs were around 0.007 per share.

I'd like to see if you can't redeem yourself over that obvious missed call.  So, let me ask your honest opinion about something you have yet to comment about.  How do you think Friedcat's new franchising program will affect AM's divs and share price in the future.

Why didn't you post the divs from just before that? Let me correct that error for you.

0.01810108

0.03628311
0.03814687
0.02653753
0.02084164
0.03622410

[Mabsark]

look!  I said price will drop!  I am psychic! 

I said the price would drop, not because I'm psychic but because that what the maths suggests.

[bobboooiie]

Can I play too ?

0.01108519
0.00735415
0.00773063
0.00696732
0.00695565
0.00255553

Oh wow divs are actually UP!

[Mabsark]

I think we are going to see some record breaking dividends in the coming months, due to mining and sales of block erupters.

Here are 2000 of the USBs recently sold, shipped to the other side of the Earth, and in the process of being delivered to group buyers:

The Great Wall from China:

These miners were paid for and shipped within a matter of days-- there is currently no other company out there that is able to do this on this scale.  And ASICminer's costs to continue to mass produce these is only going to decrease from this point, making it all the harder for their competitors.

1 BFL Minirig is equivalent to about 1500 USB Block Erupters and they've been shipping for a good few weeks now. While these machines may have been ordered lasy year, it does not change the fact that they are coming online on a daily basis. It's amazing how some people can simply dismiss reality.

I ran the numbers the other day for the hashing power shipped out by AM based on the financial report which I will repost below.

USB devices initially cost 1.99 BTC and were later reduced to 0.99 BTC. With discount for bulk orders, the lowest price was 0.89 BTC. If every USB device sold at 1.99 BTC, then that's 18,856 units. If every USB device sold at 0.89 BTC, then that's 42,161 units. At 336 Mh/s per unit, USB Block Erupters make up between 6.336 Th/s and 14.166 Th/s.

There were 3 auctions for blades.

The first auction sold 2 for 76 BTC and 8 for 75 BTC. That's a total of 10 for 752 BTC.

The second auction sold 50 for a total of 2578 BTC.

The third auction sold 180 blades at a fixed price of 49.99 BTC each for a total of 8,998.2 BTC

So, 240 Blades were sold in the 3 auctions for a total of 12,328.2 BTC. By subtracting this value from the Blade Sales Income value, we get the following:

29,594.75 - 12,328.2 = 17,266.55 BTC

which is the amount of income from regular sales, with Blades costing 49.99 each or 47.99 with bulk discount. If every Blade sold at 49.99 BTC, then that's 345 units. If every Blade sold at 47.99 BTC, then that's 359 units. That puts the total number of Blades sold between 605 and 619 units. At 10.752 Gh/s per unit and 619 units, the total hashing power is 6.655 Th/s.

The total hashing power from USB BEs and Blades combined is between 12.991 Th/s and 20.821 Th/s.

[Mabsark]

Can I play too ?

0.01108519
0.00735415
0.00773063
0.00696732
0.00695565
0.00255553

Oh wow divs are actually UP!

I never made the claim that divs didn't rise so I don't know what you point is. My claim all along has been that AM is currently overpriced and that the rise is divs and share price was due to AM basically having a monopoly.  Competition would see divs and share price fall.

My point in posting those previous divs was to show that deltanine was being highly selective, starting from a point after divs had just halved.