[1050 TH] BitMinter.com [1% PPLNS,Pays TxFees +MergedMining,Stratum,GBT,vardiff]

[DrHaribo]

Moving around trying to always be at the luckiest pool doesn't work. You can't move to a luckier pool when our luck is down, and back here when our luck is up.

Why?

Because you don't know how lucky a pool will be in the future. You don't know the future.

Crystal balls don't work. Tarot cards don't work. Voodoo doesn't work. Predicting today's luck based on yesterday's luck doesn't work. Nothing works. It's all superstition. The reality is that you can't tell the future.

[jfederkins]

Moving around trying to always be at the luckiest pool doesn't work. You can't move to a luckier pool when our luck is down, and back here when our luck is up.

Why?

Because you don't know how lucky a pool will be in the future. You don't know the future.

Crystal balls don't work. Tarot cards don't work. Voodoo doesn't work. Predicting today's luck based on yesterday's luck doesn't work. Nothing works. It's all superstition. The reality is that you can't tell the future.

4-leaf clovers work 

[DrHaribo]

Reminder: Short maintenance in 10 minutes. Expected mining downtime 1 to 5 minutes.

[DrHaribo]

Maintenance went fine. Looks like everyone is mining again. Just give the live hashrate stats a moment to catch up.

4-leaf clovers work 

Yes, rabbit's foot is also supposed to work.

[gb1971]

Maintenance went fine. Looks like everyone is mining again. Just give the live hashrate stats a moment to catch up.

4-leaf clovers work 

Yes, rabbit's foot is also supposed to work.

red underwear seems to work also 

[Minor Miner]

I see the pool hopping posts a lot.   Maybe someone should bring a roulette wheel to the next miner conference and only allow bets on red and black and let people see how much money can be made by waiting until three red/blacks come in a row and then betting the opposite.   I am surprised there are no books written on this strategy (I am sure wynn/adelson would be happy to fund the printing of them).

[john_thecapn]

for those interested, I have done some mild number crunching based on the data from the block timeline on the bitminter site.

back to June 10th, give or take a day, here are the averages.  (this does not include the two orphaned blocks, or the stale one, as I did not know how to factor that in.)

average work per block found  |  average difficulty    |  average luck  |  average THps
13,122,789,965.68                 |    14,313,410,979    |         47.47%  |       1,329.96

I couldn't get time because excel is a pain.

EDIT: If anyone would like the file, I can get it to you somehow.

[DrHaribo]

How do you get luck 47.47% ?

Over 9 days even luck would give us 14.6 blocks. During these specific 9 days we ended up finding 12 (+1 stale) blocks. That's bad luck, but calling it 47% seems a bit extreme.

[john_thecapn]

This is an average of the luck percentages listed on the block timeline.
If you go back to May 15,the luck goes to 46.81 and average work per block goes to 9,886,480,396
Isn't lower better with regards to that number

[eleuthria]

This is an average of the luck percentages listed on the block timeline.
If you go back to May 15,the luck goes to 46.81 and average work per block goes to 9,886,480,396
Isn't lower better with regards to that number

I may be mistaken, but I'm fairly certain you can't simply take the average of CDFs to result in average luck.  If you want a number that is easier to compare with other pools (which report luck as earnings compared to expectation):  Average Difficulty / Shares Submitted.  That gives you the percentage expressed as a decimal (1.00 = 100%, 1.1 = 110%, 0.9 = 90%), and is how much was earned vs how much was expected in that period.  You should be including orphan+stale blocks in this figure.  Higher is better.

[jjdub7]

Maintenance went fine. Looks like everyone is mining again. Just give the live hashrate stats a moment to catch up.

4-leaf clovers work 

Yes, rabbit's foot is also supposed to work.

red underwear seems to work also 

Personally, I wear my 4 leaf clover boxers every time Notre Dame plays or our CDF hits over 33.33%.  According to Anheuser-Busch, its only weird if it doesn't work.

[john_thecapn]

Good to know.  I've never gotten into the analytics of mining, so I was just going off what was listed on the site.
With that said, it still can be inferred that luck decreases as difficulty goes up.  And I think we have seen that in the recent weeks.  More shares are needed to keep the blocks coming in at a steady rate

[Minor Miner]

Good to know.  I've never gotten into the analytics of mining, so I was just going off what was listed on the site.
With that said, it still can be inferred that luck decreases as difficulty goes up.  And I think we have seen that in the recent weeks.  More shares are needed to keep the blocks coming in at a steady rate

"luck" does not change as difficulty rises.   Your expected outcome will be lower as difficulty rises if you hash rate does not increase in proportion with the rise in difficulty.

[philipma1957]

I am adding a pair of s-3's  to the doc h team.  seems to be really nice gear so far.

Stock clock is freq 218  gives me 440 gh

I under clocked to freq 212  gives me 426 gh  for 1 machine   watts used with an evga 1300 psu are  640 for the 2 machines with a total gh of around 840

[jfederkins]

I am adding a pair of s-3's  to the doc h team.  seems to be really nice gear so far.

Stock clock is freq 218  gives me 440 gh

I under clocked to freq 212  gives me 426 gh  for 1 machine   watts used with an evga 1300 psu are  640 for the 2 machines with a total gh of around 840

I also will be adding a pair of S3's next week.

[philipma1957]

I am adding a pair of s-3's  to the doc h team.  seems to be really nice gear so far.

Stock clock is freq 218  gives me 440 gh

I under clocked to freq 212  gives me 426 gh  for 1 machine   watts used with an evga 1300 psu are  640 for the 2 machines with a total gh of around 840

I also will be adding a pair of S3's next week.

I just switched my psu from the evga to the plat seasonic   power dropped to 620-630  watts.

 my meter does jumps of 10 watts.   so 620 watts for 846 hd = .736 watts a gh  630 watts for 846 gh = .744 watts a gh

the two are staying at freq 212.5 I seem to get the best results at 212.5  not the stock  218.625 or the 225 overclock


diff is moving up http://bitcoincharts.com/  has 17336 to 18597  that is 7.27 percent


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  has 17336 to 19208  that is 10.80 percent

[Phedwell]

How do you get luck 47.47% ?

Over 9 days even luck would give us 14.6 blocks. During these specific 9 days we ended up finding 12 (+1 stale) blocks. That's bad luck, but calling it 47% seems a bit extreme.

What would perfectly average mining look like? In a perfectly average world we would be finding 1.x something blocks per day and the CDF would always be 50%, right? And the only thing changing that number would be a change in our pool Thps or a change in the mining difficulty.

CDF is definitely not linear. Seems you can get really close to the limits of the scale but never quite reach them. We can mine the snot out of blocks, seemingly forever, before finding one and be somewhere in the 99.x% CDF. It's close but never quite 100%. A pool (not this one:) could mine for a month before finding a block and the CDF would still only be 99.x% only a little closer to 100%.

And what about the other end of the scale? If you find the next block on the very first hash you try, would this equate to exactly 0% CDF? Thanks

[DrHaribo]

0 CDF would mean "it's impossible to find a block with this amount of work". That would be true only with 0 work done. Even with just 1 proof of work accepted by the pool there is a chance it will create a block, so that's not 0% CDF. If you found a block, then the round is not 0 CDF, per definition.

100% CDF would mean "with this amount of work you are absolutely certain to find a block". But that is never true. Unlike a lottery where you would perhaps be able to buy all the tickets, you can't do that in bitcoin.

As time approaches infinity, CDF approaches 100%. But just like time never reaches infinity, CDF can never be 100%.

[rockby11]

0 CDF would mean "it's impossible to find a block with this amount of work". That would be true only with 0 work done. Even with just 1 proof of work accepted by the pool there is a chance it will create a block, so that's not 0% CDF. If you found a block, then the round is not 0 CDF, per definition.

100% CDF would mean "with this amount of work you are absolutely certain to find a block". But that is never true. Unlike a lottery where you would perhaps be able to buy all the tickets, you can't do that in bitcoin.

As time approaches infinity, CDF approaches 100%. But just like time never reaches infinity, CDF can never be 100%.

Where someone can learn/read about all these?

[Phedwell]

100% CDF would mean "with this amount of work you are absolutely certain to find a block". But that is never true. Unlike a lottery where you would perhaps be able to buy all the tickets, you can't do that in bitcoin.

As time approaches infinity, CDF approaches 100%. But just like time never reaches infinity, CDF can never be 100%.

Makes sense. But what about the case in which I'm brute forcing a private key. And my machine is the only one working on the problem. At some point in time a million bajillion years from now I would expect to have been able to try all possible combinations. Now assuming there is only one matching private key, it would be possible to find that key on the very last sequence tried. What is the CDF? Would 50% CDF be half that time, in this case?

Thanks for your explanations. Very lucid.