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[JanpriX]

Tuesday Basketball and Soccer Bonanza  
*These leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
PUSH - Take CHELSEA -1.0 GOAL over Crystal Palace (1:00 p.m., Tuesday, July 7th)
LOST - Take UNDER 2.5 GOALS between Chelsea and Crystal Palace (1:00 p.m., Tuesday, July 7th)

These two teams have been playing at opposite ends of the spectrum. Crystal Palace has gotten rocked in their last three matches, all losses. They were a no show against Leicester in their last outing and they have been outscored 8-0 in those three L's. Chelsea rebounded from a shocking loss to West Ham with a dominating 3-0 effort against Watford. They have won five of six matches since the restart and they are 7-1 in their last eight overall (with wins over Liverpool and Man City). These guys can dominate. And if you kick out that 3-2 match against West Ham they have outscored their last seven opponents 15-2. I think they can throw another beating here and pick up three more points.

SPANISH LA LIGA
LOST - Take ATLETICO MADRID ML over Celta Vigo (4:00 p.m., Tuesday, July 7th)
PUSH - Take OVER 2.0 GOALS between Atletico Madrid and Celta Vigo (4:00 p.m., Tuesday, July 7th)

I don't think that this is going to be a blowout but I do think that Madrid will pick up another win. They have been one of the hottest teams in Europe for the entirety of 2020. They've lost once since late January, going 9-1 with six draws. And dating back to the beginning of December Madrid is 14-4-7. Yes, Celta Vigo is motivated to stay out of the relegation zone. But they are six points clar and coming off a surprising draw with Betis. They've played some teams tough. But Vigo can't score. Kick out a 6-0 win over Alaves and they have scored just five goals in eight matches and eight goals in their last 13 matches. These two teams played to a draw back in September. I don't see one of the worst teams in the league pulling points a second time against one of the best teams.

THE BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT (United States)
WIN - Take SIDELINE CANCER -1.5 POINTS over Team Challenge ALS (2:00 p.m., Tuesday, July 7th)

Sideline Cancer was one of the more impressive teams that I saw in the opening rounds of this tournament. They had a big-time comeback win over Team Hines, another very solid team, and I think that Sideline Cancer is going to carry over that momentum into this game. Besides having a little momentum and a little swagger, I think it is going to be a big benefit to Sideline Cancer that they have already played a game in this tournament. They were able to knock the rust off in their first game and I think that they will come out firing here. I think it will take Team Challenge a little time to get into the swing of things. That should allow Sideline to get some more early confidence and an early lead. I like them to spring another upset and to advance in this tournament.

LOST - Take MEN OF MACKEY +5 POINTS over Boeheim's Army (4:00 p.m., Tuesday, July 7th)

Boeheim's Army was supposed to be one of the best teams in this field. But then they lost their only two big guys, Tyler Lydon and Chris McCullough, pulled out at the last minute. That means they don't have anyone taller than 6-9 on the team and they are essentially going to be playing with four guards and one small forward at all times. Men of Mackey should be able to easily exploit their major advantage in the post. These Purdue guys are also great defenders. And I can see them locking up a Syracuse team that is not known for its offensive execution. I don't see a single scenario in which this one turns out to be a blowout.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 8, 2020 (WEDNESDAY)
Game will start on 5:30 AM EST, Korean Baseball League
Match:  Hanwha Eagles - Lotte Giants

WIN!!! - PICK: TAKE the LOTTE GIANTS for 4 UNITS (1.57 ODDS).

Regression is a powerful factor in sports handicapping. Both positive and negative regressions are like the ebb and flow of the tides. It's touchy, though. You don't want to bet against streaks and you don't want to be on the wrong end of betting into a team with positive or negative momentum. However, it can also become apparent when a team or a player is due. And as I look at Dan Straily and the Lotte Giants I see a good situation for them here. Straily is beyond due. The former 15-game MLB winner really is too good for this league in a lot of ways. He has a 2.53 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP despite the fact that he's using juiced balls in hitter's parks. He's faced three good lineups in a row and his last two starts have been two of his worst of the season, allowing nine runs (just six earned) in 12 innings of work. He's done so despite giving up just 15 hits and one walk during that stretch. I think he's going to rebound here and I think that he will dominate a bad Hanwha squad. We really don't need a reason to bet against Hanwha, who is 13-40 in their 53 games. They are winning less than 25 percent of their games, which is the equivalent of an MLB team that goes 40-122. Would you ever have an issue betting against a team like that? Me either. Lotte is coming off a rough weekend, dropping two of three at home to SK (another bad team). But after a day off I think that that are a bit desperate coming into this series and I think that Straily is going to serve as their stopper.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

*These leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
LOST - Take BRIGHTON ML 1ST HALF over Liverpool (3:15 p.m., Wednesday, July 8th)

[JanpriX]

Wednesday Soccer Bonanza 
*These leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
LOST - Take WESTHAM over Burnley (1 p.m., Wednesday, July 8th)

It's kind of a red flag here that the lower rated team is such a strong favorite. Burnley has been chugging along, taking four wins and four draws in their last nine matches. They've benefitted from a pretty easy schedule, though, and I think that they are due for a flat spot. West Ham has been the opposite. They've had a brutal schedule: Chelsea, Tottenham, Wolves, Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City have all shown up in their last eight matches. They went 1-0-1 in the other two matches, and also picked up a win over Chelsea. I'm going to follow the number here.

WIN - Take OVER 2.5 GOALS between Liverpool and Brighton Hove (3:15 p.m., Wednesday, July 8th)

Brighton & Hove's defense has been shaky, despite what their goals allowed suggest. They have thrown two clean sheets in their last three matches. But they should've given up at least two to Leicester and they could've given up five to Man. United. Seven of their last 10 matches have gone 'under' 2.5 goals. But I just don't think that's a real reflection of how shaky they can be in the back. Liverpool never needs an excuse to score. Six of their last 10 matches have gone over 2.5 goals and after their clinical win over Aston Villa I think they will be playing loose and free here. This one looks like a 3-1 affair.

ITALY SERIE A
WIN - Take DRAW between Cagliari at Fiorentina (1:30 p.m., Tuesday, July 8th)

Maybe I should be reading this line and going strong on Fiorentina. Instead I'm going to go with the value here. It is insane that Fiorentina would be a 4-to-1 favorite over Cagliari. Fiorentina is -6 this year in goal differential (versus +2 for Cagliari) and they have basically been similar, foul-prone squads. Fiorentina hasn't won at home in almost six months. The DRAW here has a huge value that I can't pass on.

WIN - Take NAPOLI over Genoa (1:30 p.m., Tuesday, July 8th)

Napoli has been very, very good since the restart. The have won four of their last five matches and, including their penalty advancement against Inter they have won six of seven matches. That surge has come against a very solid schedule too, with four of their last seven coming against Inter, Juventus, Atalanta and Roma, four of the top six squads. Now they get to step down in class to face a sloppy Genoa side. Genoa has not been good since the restart, losing twice and taking two draws. I don't see much from them here and I think Napoli will continue to ascend.

WIN - Take ATALANTA -1.5 GOALS over Sampdoria (3:45 p.m., Tuesday, July 8th)

Atalanta has won 11 straight matches and their offensive attack is one of the best in Europe. There is no reason not to bet them and we will continue to ride this streak.

WIN - Take SASSUOLO ML over Bologna (3:45 p.m., Tuesday, July 8th)

Bologna is coming off a scummy, garbage 2-1 upset win over Inter. They were down 1-0 and had just conceded a penalty shot in the 62nd minute. Inter missed that penalty and then, despite a man advantage, allowed a short-handed goal and then lost outright after taking a red of their own. It was a fluke joke. So I am playing for a major letdown from this thuggish side in this match.

MEXICO - Cup of Mexico
WIN - Take UANL TIGRES ML over Guadalaraja (10:00 p.m., Tuesday, July 8th)

The Tigres should've had three goals in their first match and should've won easily. Instead they took a 0-0 draw. But if they play like that again here they should walk away with an easy win against an overmatched opponent.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 8, 2020 (WEDNESDAY)
Game will start on 1:00 PM EST, ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
Match:  Sheffield United - Wolverhampton

LOSS - PICK: TAKE the WOLVERHAMPTON ML for 2 UNITS (2.20 ODDS).

Wolverhampton has been one of the most solid teams in the Premier League since the restart. They had their three-game winning streak snapped their last time out, falling 2-0 to Arsenal. However, they actually outplayed Arsenal - who has been hot - and gave up two tough goals. I think that they are going to snap back here. Wolverhampton has a ton of motivation here. Without going to far out into the weeds they are playing for a potential slot in the Champions League. Three points here would be huge. Sheffield United is a team that I have been looking to bet against. They have played so far over their heads for so much of this season, including their garbage win over Tottenham last week. That's their only win since March 7 and their only other results were draws against weak Burnley and Aston Villa squads. I like the value in this spot and I'll play for a win.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 8, 2020 (WEDNESDAY)
Game will start on 3:45 PM EST, Italy Serie A
Match:  Roma - Parma

WIN!!! - PICK: TAKE the ROMA ML for 4 UNITS (1.60 ODDS).

As per our selection on Roma to win this game, they have to get back in the win column if they are to have any shot at keeping pace with Milan and Napoli for the fifth spot and the automatic birth into the Europa League group stage. Roma has had a really hard go of it lately, losing three straight games. Outside of the loss to Udinese, they've lost to Napoli and AC Milan which is no shame seeing as they are good teams. Now Roma will regroup and take on a Parma side that has also lost three straight, two of which came to inferior opponents. If history is any indication, Roma will come out with all three points as they've beaten Parma in 9 of the last 12 meetings dating back to 2012. Roma gets back on track and we cash another soccer ticket.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 8, 2020 (WEDNESDAY)
Game will start on 8:00 PM EST, USA - MLS
Match:  Orlando City SC - Inter Miami CF

WIN!!! - PICK: TAKE the OVER 2.5 GOALS for 2 UNITS (1.74 ODDS).

Well the MLS experiment at Disney's Wild World of Sports in Orlando kicks off on Wednesday night. FC Dallas has already withdrawn from the competition due to the number of players testing positive. So the opening match is one that MLS hopes will be one of its top rivalries, the newest MLS side Inter Miami verses one of MLS' punching bags Orlando City. Miami got two matches under its belt before the shutdown, losing both, 1-0 at the LA Galaxy and 2-1 at DC United. The second loss to DC saw Miami take a lead in the second minute and a red card in the 54th, only to give up a penalty in the 59th minute and the winning goal for DC in the 61st. This is a talented well coached Miami team and we expect a pretty wide open match as both blow off built up aggregation. Orlando City drew in their opening match of the season 0-0 at home to Real Salt Lake before losing 2-1 at Colorado after giving up a 90th minute goal to loss. Looking at other leagues and their first few matches, we like for the over to hit easily here. Teams have only been at full training for about two weeks, add in the heat and humidity of July in Orlando and defenses will struggle in the last 30 minutes of matches.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 9, 2020 (THURSDAY)
Game will start on 9:00 AM EST, USA - MLS
Match:  New York City FC - Philadelphia Union

WIN!!! - PICK: TAKE the UNDER 3 GOALS for 1 UNIT (1.95 ODDS).

We saw this often in Europe: teams coming back from these long layoffs are not sharp in their first match. Especially in the first half. These are two pretty solid defensive teams anyway and I think that everyone is going to be working just to find their footing. Four goals in a restart game seems a bit strong.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[swogerino]

Pick for July 9, 2020 (THURSDAY)
Game will start on 9:00 AM EST, USA - MLS
Match:  New York City FC - Philadelphia Union

PICK: TAKE the UNDER 3 GOALS for 1 UNIT (1.95 ODDS).

SCREENSHOT TO FOLLOW

We saw this often in Europe: teams coming back from these long layoffs are not sharp in their first match. Especially in the first half. These are two pretty solid defensive teams anyway and I think that everyone is going to be working just to find their footing. Four goals in a restart game seems a bit strong.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

I like your reasoning here.You have picked under 3 goals bcause if I understand the bet correctly if three goals happen you get your money back and if more goals happen you lose.The game is about to start and maybe if the game is live I place a live bet on it.

[JanpriX]

Thursday Soccer Bonanza  
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
LOST - Take TOTTENHAM ML over Bournemouth (1:00 p.m., Thursday, July 9th)

I still think that Tottenham's 3-1 loss to Sheffield last week was complete and total garbage. Prior to that they handled West Ham and after that they outplayed Everton. This team has not played well on spec. But they are still +8 in goal differential - good enough for sixth in the league, despite their No. 10 slot in the table - and now they are in a state of completely desperation. I think that they are better than they've played and I think that they have too much talent to be stuck in the middle of the standings. If they can't beat the second-worst teams in the league - a Bournemouth team that is -27 in goal differential - then I guess I was just wrong about them and it will cost me some money. I don't think I'm wrong about them. Three points and a win here would vault them into 7th place and give them momentum heading into a big match with Arsenal. I think they will get it here.

WIN - Take MANCHESTER UNITED -1.5 GOALS over Aston Villa (3:00 p.m., Thursday, July 9th)

Manchester United is clicking on all cylinders right now. They have won four straight matches. And their last three Premier League victories have come by at least three goals apiece and they have outscored those opponents 11-2. Since the restart they are +10 in goal differential and they should be able to lay the wood to Aston Villa here. Villa haven't won in 10 matches, dating back to late January. They have just two draws in that stretch as well, and I don't expect this to end well for them.

RUSSIAN PREMIER LEAGUE
LOST - Take KRASNODAR over Rubin Kazan (1:30 p.m., Thursday, July 9th)

This is just good team v. bad team. Krasnodar has to be a little salty after a 4-2 loss against Zenit and a slide down to fourth place. They can vault back to third place with three points here (and sit just two points down with one fewer game than the No. 2 team) and I think that they will get it. They have a +15 goal differential and have scored the third-most goals in the league. Rubin Kazan has tallied just 15 goals in 26 matches this year; that's beyond pathetic. The only real team they've faced since the restart was Lokomotiv and that was an easy 2-0 loss. They are facing a motivated opponent and I don't expect them to hang on for 90+ minutes here.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 9, 2020 (THURSDAY)
Game will start on 3:45 PM EST, Italy Serie A
Match:  Hellas Verona - Inter

LOSS - PICK: TAKE the INTER ML for 2 UNITS (1.63 ODDS).

This is three-way betting. A draw is a loss.

Inter is coming off an absolutely garbage loss on Sunday. They were up 1-0 on Bologna, with Bologna down a man thanks to a second half red card. Not only that, but Inter was lining up for a penalty kick and set to go up 2-0. Well, they missed the PK, they gave up an equalizer, they took a red card of their own, and then gave up the game-losing goal in a 10 v. 10 situation. It was as bizarre of a collapse as you will ever see from a top tier team. And I think that they are absolutely pissed off about it. Dating back to last August they've only lost back-to-back games twice. They've only failed to grab a win in two or more games in a row five times over the last 12 months. And that loss to Bologna was Inter's only loss to a team that isn't in the top tier of this (or any) league. Losses to Barcelona, Dortmund and Juventus make up five of their eight losses over their last 43 matches. So if we rule out a loss here - they aren't going to lose - the only thing that screws us is a draw. Again, I simply don't see that happening. Their only wins since the restart have come against Cagliari and Parma, two bad teams. They also took a draw against a bad Sassuolo squad. Verona is coming off a bad loss to a woeful Brescia team and I think they are going to get worked over here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 9, 2020 (THURSDAY)
Game will start on 8:00 PM EST, Major League Soccer
Match:  Impact Montreal - New England Revolution

LOSS - PICK: TAKE the IMPACT MONTREAL +0.5 GOAL for 1 UNIT (1.65 ODDS).

Montreal have struggled in the recent past so we are not surprised by this line, but they have Thierry Henry as their new manager and we saw from the handful of matches they played before the shutdown that this World Cup winner has this team heading in the right direction. Though Montreal lost their last match in the CONCACAF Champions League 2-1 to Olimpia at home, they were on a four match unbeaten run including a 2-2 draw at Deportivo Saprissa in the Champions League and a 2-1 home win over New England to start the MLS season. Montreal's last MLS match at Dallas ended 2-2 though Montreal held a lead until the 83rd minute. For New England, they have struggled as well in recent years and opened the MLS season with a 2-1 loss to Montreal and a 1-1 draw at home to Chicago. This side now has a marquee name as manager as well as former LA Galaxy and US National Team coach Bruce Arena is leading the charge. Though the managers are not playing the match, this does change both sides trajectory. We still think Montreal looked better at the beginning of the season and they know they can beat this side. In a World Cup format tournament, wins are needed and we like the Canadians.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 10, 2020 (FRIDAY)
Game will start on 5:30 AM EST, Major League Soccer
Match:  Hanwha Eagles - SK Wyverns

WIN!!! - PICK: TAKE the OVER 9.5 RUNS for 5 UNITS (1.87 ODDS).

Hanwha is actually favored in this game that features far and away the two worst teams in the KBO league. Both pitchers are garbage, as Kim Joo-han is 0-1 against Hanwha with a 40.50 E.R.A. He is 0-4 on the season with a 7.50 E.R.A. Kim Min-woo goes for the Eagles and he is 1-5 on the season and 0-1 against SK with an E.R.A. of 10.13 against them. We will not worry about who wins this game and just collect with the over.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 10, 2020 (FRIDAY)
Game will start on 2:15 PM EST, Portugal Primeira Liga
Match:  Sporting CP - CD Santa Clara

PUSH - PICK: TAKE the SPORTING CP -1.0 GOAL for 2 UNITS (1.93 ODDS).

No time for a lengthy write-up. This is a great spot for Sporting to get a big win against a poor Santa Clara team. Sporting has four wins over their last 6 contests and has been scoring plenty of goals with the exception of their latest game - a 0-0 draw. Sporting will be eager to get back in the win column and they should do just that as they are riding an 8-game home winning streak - five of those coming with a clean sheet. Santa Clara gives up a ton of goals on the road and we expect that to continue here. Sporting wins this game easily by 2 goals.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

*These leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
WIN - Take FULHAM ML over Cardiff City (3:15 p.m., Friday, July 10th)

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 10, 2020 (FRIDAY)
Game will start on 12:55 PM EST, Golf - Workday Charity Open - Round Two
Match:  Jon Rahm - Viktor Hovland

LOSS - PICK: TAKE the JON RAHM ML for 2 UNITS (1.90 ODDS).

Jon Rahm got the nerves out on Thursday after shooting an even par 72 that included five birdies, three bogeys, and a double bogey. Rahm is a strong enough player to turn a poor round into a run at the top spot and if Rahm can win this tournament, he will take over the World's number one spot, which is what we will attest that opening round to nerves. The Cut line is likely to be around three under par so to make that happen, Rahm will need to go low. Rahm has four Top Ten finishes this season and is coming off a T31 at the Travelers two weeks ago where he shot 68 in the second round. Rahm is averaging a 69 in round two this season with a low of 67 and a high of 73, though the 73 was in the second event of the season in January after shooting a 69 in the opening round of the Sentry. For Hovland, he is coming off a three under par 69 in the opening round yesterday and is playing in his fifth straight event. Hovland has played well since the restart with four Top 25 finishes including a T11 at the Travelers and a T12 last week at the Rocket Mortgage. We expect a little bit of fatigue to start settling in for the young player as this is his 14th event of the season and fifth in a row. Rahm knows he needs to go low today to play on the weekend and the afternoon groups yesterday saw some very low scores.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[adamistraybar]

well pretty nice bets

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 10, 2020 (FRIDAY)
Game will start on 2:55 PM EST, US - The Basketball Tournament
Match:  Brotherly Love - Golden Eagles

LOSS - PICK: TAKE the BROTHERLY LOVE +3 POINTS for 1 UNIT (1.84 ODDS).

We have seen underdogs clean up of late in the TBT and expect that to hold true again on Friday. With the Elam ending and no chance of overtime, Dogs have been impressive. This side of the bracket opened up with Carmens Crew going down and it would not surprise me if the runners' up from last year lose this game today as well. Team Brotherly love had a slow start on 7/4 but really played well in the second half to win that game with ease.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

UFC 251  
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

LOST - Take Elizeu Zaleski over Muslim Salikhov (9:05 p.m., Saturday, July 11th)

In the welterweight division we have a matchup between Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos (22-6) and Muslim Salikhov (16-2). Salikhov came into the UFC with an absurdly impressive kick boxing record of 185-13 with 76 wins coming by KO! Salikhov's debut in the UFC did not go as planned when he lost via submission, but since has silenced any doubters with 3 straight wins, including his most recent knockout win against Nordine Taleb. He has an incredibly unique and dynamic style and has serious one punch knockout power. The main issue with Salikhov is if you can take him down and get him on his back, he does not seem to have many answers. Dos Santos has a similar striking style to Muslim, and has a slight speed advantage, but unfortunately does not pack the same power, which can be a problem if this fight stays standing. Dos Santos may find himself winning minutes, but the threat of the KO is always there and the longer it stays on the feet, the more likely that is to happen. Zaleski does have a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and is more than capable of handling Salikhov's weakness on the mat. Dos Santos will need to stay on the outside, and pick his shots, while timing some good wrestling entries to attempt to ground Salikhov, and if he is able to do that, we like his chances. There's always the worry he won't attempt any takedowns as he has been used to finishing most fights via KO himself, but if he can utilize some smart fight IQ and his corner gives him the correct advice and gameplan, there is a clear path for victory here. This is a close fight, but we will trust Dos Santos to take the smart approach here, and for that reason will take the value in the dog.

LOST - Take Volkan Oezdemir over Jiri Prochazka (9:35 p.m., Saturday, July 11th)

The featured prelim of UFC 251 will feature a light heavyweight matchup between Volkan Oezdemir (17-4) and Jiri Prochazka (26-3). This is an interesting matchup to say the least. Jiri is coming into this UFC debut with high expectations which can be seen by the matchmakers throwing him right to the top of the pile to fight 7th ranked Volkan Oezdemir. Volkan is a tough fighter with a solid chin but has some cardio and speed issues. Prochazka has looked good on the regional scene, and while he has a bunch of finishes vs. some washed up UFC veterans, he really has not been tested. The UFC are always looking for the next biggest thing, and they are happy to throw newcomers in there at too high a level, just to see if something sticks. Volkan is proven in the UFC and has fought the best of the best. He has been in there with the likes of Ovince Saint Preux, Misha Cirkunov, Jimi Manuwa, Anthony Smith, Dominick Reyez and Daniel Cormier! You could even make the argument that Volkan won against Reyez, but unfortunately lost a split decision. We are proponents of betting the more experienced, proven fighters and that has been very lucrative for us in the past, and we do not plan on diverting away from that strategy here. The oddsmakers have Oezdemir as a -145 favorite, which implies only a 59.2%-win probability. We would argue that Oezdemir has all the tools to win this fight more than 70% of the time, no matter where this fight takes place, and would line this closer to -250. For that reason, we must take the shot on Volkan in a fight we think he will outclass Jiri, and probably finish him.

LOST - Take Jessica Andrade over Rose Namajunas (10:40p.m., Saturday, July 11th)

Next up in the women's strawweight division, we have a rematch between Jessica Andrade (20-7) and Rose Namajunas (8-4). If you watched the first fight, it is clear that although Andrade pulled out the victory, it was a bout in which Rose was winning. She was landing at will and beating up Andrade until she was slammed on her neck/head which effectively knocked her out. From a technical standpoint there is no doubt that Namajunas is a far superior striker, but MMA fights are not won on slick technique alone. Andrade is a walk forward brawler, who will absorb a lot of damage as she tries to land a bomb of her own. This worked well for her in the past but when fighting someone who can stick and move like Rose, it was proven to be ineffective. Andrade went to plan B and was able to grab and throw Namajunas around with ease. Rose has always had a tough time with the mental aspect of mixed martial arts and she does not seem like her head, or heart is in it most of the time. Andrade on the other hand, is a pure fighter and we think she would have learned a lot from their first meeting. In all honesty, we see this as a fight in which Andrade will close the gap much earlier on and out wrestle and grapple Rose to a unanimous decision victory. Round 1 may be ugly and Jessica might be getting cracked, but as the fight wears on we think she will find a way to stifle the movement of Namajunas and grind her way to an ugly 29-28 on the judges' scorecards. We must take the value here on the dog who has a clear path to victory, if she can avoid the knockout.

WIN - Take Over 2.5 Rounds between Jose Aldo and Petr Yan (11:15p.m., Saturday, July 11th)

This is the first of 3 championship fights, as Jose Aldo (28-6) will face-off vs. Petr Yan (14-1) for the vacant bantamweight title. This fight will be so good, and if this were a few years ago, we would be all over the dog price with Jose Aldo. We believe he is being overlooked in this spot, but he's been in so many wars over the years that his gas tank starts to fail him later on, even if he's won the first half of the fight. Do not get us wrong - Petr Yan is exceptionally good and has a solid fight IQ, but this is a big stage for him, fighting one of the best to ever do it for a UFC championship. We think there could be some octagon jitters for Petr Yan, and he is historically a slow starter anyway, and Aldo looks great early on when he can utilize his speed and technique before starting to slow in the later rounds. This will be a close one, but we feel Aldo will have his way early, but as the fight proceeds, Yan could be live for the comeback victory. Yan is tough as nails, and Aldo is not as washed as many think he is. This fight should see the later rounds, and, in all honesty, we are surprised to see the over 2.5 as low as -170 considering this is a 5 rounder. This is a lean on Aldo looking good early, and that coincides with the over.

LOST - Take Max Holloway over Alexander Volkanovski (11:40p.m., Saturday, July 11th)

In the featherweight division, we have a matchup where Max Holloway (21-5) will attempt to reclaim his featherweight title when he matches up against Alexander Volkanovski (21-1). This is an interesting rematch. After watching the first fight, it was closer than most think, although there is still no doubt in our mind that Volkanovski won. It was also clear to us that Holloway did not fight to his usual standard. He did not let his hands go like he usually does, and he did not push the pace either. He allowed Volkanovski to get far too comfortable and once he allowed that confidence to sink in, it was hard to put his stamp on the fight as the rounds wore on. We think this fight will play out remarkably like the first one with a few differences. The time off should have worked wonders for Max, and he looked better than ever at the weigh-ins. It appears he is not carrying the weight and pressure of being champion and defending his belt time and time again. This time it will be Volkanovski feeling that pressure. If Holloway can let his hands go and remember to check some of those Volkanovski leg kicks, he should be able to out-volume, out-point and have a higher overall work rate than Volk. This will be another close fight, but we believe in reverse order, where Max will edge out the exchanges and reclaim his UFC title. We must take a shot on this dog price with one of the best featherweights of all-time.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 12, 2020 (SUNDAY)
Game will start on 12:15 AM EST, UFC 251
Match:  Kamaru Usman - Jorge Masvidal

WIN!!! - PICK: TAKE the KAMARU USMAN for 5 UNITS (1.41 ODDS).

The main event of the evening will feature a battle between Kamaru Usman (16-1) and Jorge Masvidal (35-13) for the welterweight championship. This is such an exciting fight. Usman is an incredible champion and has shown us nothing but incredible talent since coming to the UFC. Masvidal is a bad-ass gangster who packs some serious power and has impressive boxing skills. Usman was originally slated to face Gilbert Burns - which in all honesty would have been a much harder matchup, regardless of the more exciting opponent in Masvidal. Burns has better takedown defense, and also has the threat of some high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu off his back - However, Masvidals doesn't pose these same threats. Masvidal has a ton of hype behind him right now due to his recent string of wins - he knocked out Darren Till in the UK, albeit after being dropped in Round 1 himself - he knocked out Ben Askren with a flying knee in the first 5 seconds of that fight so we never got to see how that would have played out, and he was abusing Nate Diaz for the BMF title which was stopped due to a nasty cut, although he did show some signs of slowing down in that 3rd round, and has had some cardio issues in the past. This all looks good on paper, but these are fights where many things played out to go his way. Do not get us wrong, we are not taking anything away from Jorge, but he has been far less proven than Usman. Kamaru has a CLEAR advantage in this fight if he wants it... WRESTLING! Usman was able to easiliy out wrestle Tyron Woodley for the championship a few fights ago, and trust us - if he can do that, he can absolutely rag doll Masvidal. In all honesty, this line is completely out of whack. There is always the threat of Masvidal landing something big and putting Usman away, but besides that, there is almost zero path to victory. Usman at -220 is a complete bargain, and we don't expect him to make the same mistake he made in his last fight vs. Covington where he was too happy to just stand and bang and not utilize any threat of the takedown. There is no doubt he has good striking, but we just do not see the need for that here. Usman will get inside, grapple and zap the gas take of Masvidal while throwing him down to the canvas time and time again. We expect this to be one sided and think this should be closer to -500.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 12, 2020 (SUNDAY)
Game will start on 7:00 AM EST, English Premier League
Match:  Wolverhampton - Everton

WIN!!! - PICK: TAKE the OVER 1.5/2 GOALS for 2 UNITS (1.77 ODDS).

As per our selection on the over 2 goals in this matchup, I'm shocked to see this total at 2 as both of these teams have conceded their fair share of goals this season and they've also scored a good amount as well. Wolves need to win here to keep the chasing pack at ba for the final Europa League spot while Everton is just playing out the string. At home, Wolves have just 2 losses over their last 10 games and they've seen an average of 2 goals scored per game. Everton doesn't exactly travel well as they've lost three of their last five away games and those games averaged 3.1 goals per game. There is enough attacking talent on both sides for both teams to score in this one and we expect Wolves to be the better side from start to finish and find a winner and push this game over the number. Five of the last six games between these two sides have gone over 2 and we expect that trend to continue.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 13, 2020 (MONDAY)
Game will start on 4:00 PM EST, Spanish La Liga
Match:  Granada - Real Madrid

WIN!!! - PICK: TAKE the OVER 2.5 GOALS for 2 UNITS (1.80 ODDS).

It has been a while since Real Madrid has just lit someone up. That's exactly what I think is going to happen here. Granada is not a bad side at all. They have a positive goal differential and are in the mix for a Europa spot. But they are outclassed here. They only have two wins since the restart and I think that they are due for a letdown here after their upset win over Real Sociedad. They've scored eight goals in their last four matches and have 12 goals in eight matches since the restart so they have been a little dangerous. Real Madrid has an incredible amount of offensive talent. But they have gone 'under' in six straight matches and haven't scored three (or more) goals in a month. They absolutely should've conceded a goal to Alaves and after five straight shutouts I think that Granada will get on the board here. However, Madrid has also been close to a breakout of its own and I think that's exactly what is going to happen here. I have this one at 3-1 for Real and I think this one is going to fly over this total.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.