🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈

[ChiBitCTy]

My answers in red below...




Saturday, January 15, 2022

Raiders vs Bengals - I like the Bengals here.  Big win against KC headed in to the playoffs with some nice momentum.  Burrow and Chase are on fire! Spread is -5...I think they cover.

Patriots vs Bills - I'll take the Bills here.  I think the Patriots are the most overrated team in the league.   Spread is Buffalo -4, I think they win by 3 pts.

Sunday, January 16, 2022

Eagles vs Buccaneers - Despite not having Godwin and now Antonio Brown, I still very much like the Bucs.  The eagles suck, surprised they were able to slip in.  Spread is -8.5 tampa, I say they fail to over

49ers vs Cowboys - This is a tougher one but I'll take the Cowboys.  They are inconsistent as hell, but that offense is very high powered.  The Niners are overrated in my opinion.  Spread is Dallas -3, I think they cover.

Steelers vs Chiefs - Chiefs all day here.  Steelers got beyond lucky backing their way in to this one.  KC is -12.5, I think they fail to cover.

Monday, January 17, 2022

Cardinals vs Rams - Great matchups, taking the Rams here.  They are on a roll and are primed for great things these playoffs.  They could easily be your Super Bowl Winner Rams are at -4 spread, I say they cover.

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[DireWolfM14]

~
Good luck

Hey there, good to see you around.  Happy new year.

Those are pretty darn good picks and actually reflect my pre-planning for the 49ers potential opponents, lol.  Based on your picks next weekend would look like this, with my picks in bold:

AFC: (as if I care)
Cincinnati @ Kansas City: Revenge of the Chiefs.
New England @ Tennessee: The Jedi master spanks the padawan once again.

NFC:
San Francisco @ Green Bay: My heart wants just one thing that my brain refuses to grant; hope.
Los Angeles @ Tampa Bay: Stafford loves to end games with interceptions. 

Although, if by some miracle the Niners move past the Cowboys and the Packers, the road to the super bowl is going through Tampa Bay. 

49ers vs Cowboys - This is a tougher one but I'll take the Cowboys.  They are inconsistent as hell, but that offense is very high powered.  The Niners are overrated in my opinion.   Spread is Dallas -3, I think they cover.

I tend to agree with you that the Niners are being overly hyped in the media at the moment, but I think the Cowboys offense is also overrated.  To be honest, I'm 50/50 on this game.  My prediction is that the Niners defense will shutdown the run, forcing them to rely on Prescott's arm.  Our front 7 should be able to pressure Prescott into a few costly mistakes that will help our offense stay in the game. 

What better way to end a post than with some hope?

[tyKiwanuka]

I tend to agree with you that the Niners are being overly hyped in the media at the moment, (...)

They surely are unfortunately. The odds at Betfair are 1.65 - 2.52 in favour of Dallas and that is just the general home advantage in sports (60/40). What plays into this is the from ChiBitCTy mentioned inconsistency especially from the Cowboys offense. If both teams play their best, Dallas will win. But while we know what we can expect or will get from the 49ers, we don't know what Dallas team will show up and this is priced in. The dilemma with value betting - you think a team will win, but odds are too low.

Despite me thinking that SF will advance, the value is likely on Dallas, because the odds reflect a so and so playing Cowboys offense. But that is no given, they could also light up the scoreboard with ease; you never know with them. If there was a guarantee that their offense would click throughout the playoffs, then they would even be my pick for the Championship

That being said, the markets expect a KC vs GB Superbowl:


Source: https://www.orbitxch.com/customer/sport/market/1.179077539

Titans are way too low imo, can't see them beating KC and probably GB back to back, even if Henry comes back in good shape. Same goes for the Bills, if they even manage to get past NE.

Hey there, good to see you around.  Happy new year.

Thanks, Happy New Year

[wheelz1200]

I tend to agree with you that the Niners are being overly hyped in the media at the moment, (...)

They surely are unfortunately. The odds at Betfair are 1.65 - 2.52 in favour of Dallas and that is just the general home advantage in sports (60/40). What plays into this is the from ChiBitCTy mentioned inconsistency especially from the Cowboys offense. If both teams play their best, Dallas will win. But while we know what we can expect or will get from the 49ers, we don't know what Dallas team will show up and this is priced in. The dilemma with value betting - you think a team will win, but odds are too low.

Despite me thinking that SF will advance, the value is likely on Dallas, because the odds reflect a so and so playing Cowboys offense. But that is no given, they could also light up the scoreboard with ease; you never know with them. If there was a guarantee that their offense would click throughout the playoffs, then they would even be my pick for the Championship

That being said, the markets expect a KC vs GB Superbowl:


Source: https://www.orbitxch.com/customer/sport/market/1.179077539

Titans are way too low imo, can't see them beating KC and probably GB back to back, even if Henry comes back in good shape. Same goes for the Bills, if they even manage to get past NE.

Hey there, good to see you around.  Happy new year.

Thanks, Happy New Year

Honestly should anyone be betting against the bucs and Brady?  I've bet against him plenty of times and gotten burned.  That is really good odds on them I might actually take that.  They should annihilate the eagles tonight and then it's a stones throw to the superbowl.  I do want to see a rematch of last year's nfc championship in Lambeau.  Come on football gods make it so.

[morvillz7z]

Snacks and beer have been secured for the super wild card weekend. Cheers, Joe Judge.  

I will try to enjoy the fantasy football offseason because the 17-18 week long grind was too much for me in the end. I'm simply gonna sit back, relax, and enjoy some terrific football without getting worked up about lineups, fpoints, or anything.

Anyways, i don't see the Raiders making it past this round despite the fact that there are a lot of bets coming their way to cover the 6/6.5 half-points. I don't want to get involved with spreads, which is why i have Burrow's longest completion 35+ yards, and Bengals to win @2.23, i could also see Higgins having a big game with a TD and some big yard plays.

[DireWolfM14]

Snacks and beer have been secured for the super wild card weekend. Cheers, Joe Judge.  

Lol, good for him.  No use crying over spilled milk.

Anyways, i don't see the Raiders making it past this round despite the fact that there are a lot of bets coming their way to cover the 6/6.5 half-points. I don't want to get involved with spreads, which is why i have Burrow's longest completion 35+ yards, and Bengals to win @2.23, i could also see Higgins having a big game with a TD and some big yard plays.

Those are good picks, sounds like a safe bet as longs as Chase is on the field.  I took a different approach and threw caution to the wind:

• Player stats - D. Carr 1+ Pass interceptions (Game)
• Game event - 1+ Fumbles lost (Game) ✔
• Total points - Over 43.5 (Game)
• Player stats - D. Carr over 249.5 Passing yds (Game)
• Player stats - J. Burrow 2+ Passing TDs thrown (Game) ✔
• Player TDs - J. Mixon Score anytime (Game)
• Money line - Bengals (Game)

Odds 11.70

Doesn't look like Derek Carr is going to help me out with the passing yards though. 

[morvillz7z]

Doesn't look like Derek Carr is going to help me out with the passing yards though. 

You are almost halfway with Carr's passing yards, boy did the Raiders needed that last-min TD to stay in the game. Huge throw by Carr and a nice catch by Jones.

J. Mixon Score anytime could be problematic for your parlay, Bengals stopped twice in the Redzone, good luck though.

Raiders are lucky to be just one score down with all the penalties and silly mistakes up to the final drive of the 2nd Q.

Burrow's longest completion 35+ yards, and Bengals to win

Chase 28, Uzomah 29 

[DireWolfM14]

Doesn't look like Derek Carr is going to help me out with the passing yards though. 

You are almost halfway with Carr's passing yards, boy did the Raiders needed that last-min TD to stay in the game. Huge throw by Carr and a nice catch by Jones.

J. Mixon Score anytime could be problematic for your parlay, Bengals stopped twice in the Redzone, good luck though.

Raiders are lucky to be just one score down with all the penalties and silly mistakes up to the final drive of the 2nd Q.

Yeah, that TD pass padded his stats.  I almost took the under, but I figured he'll be playing catchup all day.  Last time he played the Bengals he threw for about 216 IIRC.  I figured he'd be good for a few more in a playoff game.  Which is why I figured he's good for one interception as well. 

Burrow's longest completion 35+ yards, and Bengals to win

Chase 28, Uzomah 29 

Still another half to go, so plenty of time.  They've got the ball first, and so far they're playing the clock.  That'll set up a big downfield play sooner or later.

[suchmoon]

Player stats - D. Carr 1+ Pass interceptions (Game)

He took his time with that one.

But Mixon didn't score so it's kinda moot for you anyway.

[morvillz7z]

„I'll Call the President. President, we need the National Guard! We need as many men as you can spare! Because we are killing the Patriots! So call the dogs off! Send the National Guard, please!“  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJ4UwE5WNI0

edit; hell yeah 

[DireWolfM14]

But Mixon didn't score so it's kinda moot for you anyway.

Oh, so close.

• Player stats - D. Carr 1+ Pass interceptions (Game) ✔
• Game event - 1+ Fumbles lost (Game) ✔
• Total points - Over 43.5 (Game) ✔
• Player stats - D. Carr over 249.5 Passing yds (Game) ✔
• Player stats - J. Burrow 2+ Passing TDs thrown (Game) ✔
• Player TDs - J. Mixon Score anytime (Game) X
• Money line - Bengals (Game) ✔

Odds 11.70

If you can't hammer it in
with Joe Mixon
your offensive line
needs some fixin'

I'll be here all week.  

„I'll Call the President. President, we need the National Guard! We need as many men as you can spare! Because we are killing the Patriots! So call the dogs off! Send the National Guard, please!“  
~

Yet another interception for the rooky.  It's getting ugly for the Pats.  I included the Pats on my weekend-multi with them @ +4.5, so I'm gonna be 0/2 on bets today.  

[bbc.reporter]

„I'll Call the President. President, we need the National Guard! We need as many men as you can spare! Because we are killing the Patriots! So call the dogs off! Send the National Guard, please!“  
~

Yet another interception for the rooky.  It's getting ugly for the Pats.  I included the Pats on my weekend-multi with them @ +4.5, so I'm gonna be 0/2 on bets today.  

I did not bet, however, I would have thought that +4.5 for the Patriots would win. I thought the game to be closer and might end with only a field goal behind for the Patriots because it is a playoff, wild card game this is Bill Belichick.

In any case, after watching the players breaths spread in the cold air, I am now very certain mask mandates work to reduce coronavirus infections hehehe. Do not listen to people telling everyone masks do not work.

My wild card-multi, should I do it?

[morvillz7z]

@bbc.reporter  be careful with Garoppolo's total passing yards, i wouldn't trust him with much today, especially not against that Dallas pass-rushing defense. Micah Parsons has been outstanding all season. I believe he is ranked second or third in pass-rush win rate, and besides the Niners would want to stay committed to the run game as much as possible.

Am i crazy to think that the Eagles have a shot today? Bucs haven't looked the same since Fournette went down and today they will be without RoJo, so no run game whatsoever...it's basically M. Evans and Gronk with expected wind gusts in Tampa up to 40 mph. Eagles have the best rushing offense in the league...i'm just saying.  

Imagine if the second team all Patriots fans support goes down within 24hrs!?

[DireWolfM14]

@bbc.reporter  be careful with Garoppolo's total passing yards, i wouldn't trust him with much today, especially not against that Dallas pass-rushing defense. Micah Parsons has been outstanding all season. I believe he is ranked second or third in pass-rush win rate, and besides the Niners would want to stay committed to the run game as much as possible.

I was just about to reply to bbc.reporter and say essentially the same thing.  I think 250 yards for Jimmy G is a bit ambitious.  The Niners will have to ground and pound to win this game, no believes Garoppolo's arm is going to do it for us. 

For the same reasons, I think Kyler Murry over 255 passing yards is also ambitious.

Am i crazy to think that the Eagles have a shot today? Bucs haven't looked the same since Fournette went down and today they will be without RoJo, so no run game whatsoever...it's basically M. Evans and Gronk with expected wind gusts in Tampa up to 40 mph. Eagles have the best rushing offense in the league...i'm just saying.  

Imagine if the second team all Patriots fans support goes down within 24hrs!?

No you're not crazy, the Bucs aren't the same team they were last week.  I think the Eagles have a legitimate chance, which makes them a huge bargain on the market right now.

[South Park]

„I'll Call the President. President, we need the National Guard! We need as many men as you can spare! Because we are killing the Patriots! So call the dogs off! Send the National Guard, please!“  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJ4UwE5WNI0

What an ass kicking, I knew the chances to win were low but the Patriots got absolutely destroyed yesterday, it was a game difficult to watch for a fan as myself but it was important to do so, since that is the distance between a team that has some chances to make it to the SB and the Patriots, and most likely we will have to face Allen for at least another decade so Belichick better finds out how to stop Allen or this is a scenario that we will watch over and over again.

[wheelz1200]

„I'll Call the President. President, we need the National Guard! We need as many men as you can spare! Because we are killing the Patriots! So call the dogs off! Send the National Guard, please!“  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJ4UwE5WNI0

What an ass kicking, I knew the chances to win were low but the Patriots got absolutely destroyed yesterday, it was a game difficult to watch for a fan as myself but it was important to do so, since that is the distance between a team that has some chances to make it to the SB and the Patriots, and most likely we will have to face Allen for at least another decade so Belichick better finds out how to stop Allen or this is a scenario that we will watch over and over again.

That was one of the most lopsided games I've seen all year.  Bills scored a td on every drive.  Only game in history where a team didn't have to punt, kick a field goal or have a turnover on downs in nfl playoff history lol.  Although this bucs game is starting to look like that.  17-0 already and eagles can't stop Brady and on offense can't barely get even a first down.  Game is boring so far.

[DireWolfM14]

You thought last night's game was a blow-out, the Eagles are getting shut-out. 

[suchmoon]

Niners must feel really lucky to find out that Prescott doesn't know how long "14 seconds" is.

First upset (kinda sorta) of the playoffs, beating a higher seed.

[DireWolfM14]

Niners must feel really lucky to find out that Prescott doesn't know how long "14 seconds" is.

First upset (kinda sorta) of the playoffs, beating a higher seed.

That was an ugly win, but I'll take it.  We started out pretty good, but for some reason our offense starts looking pedestrian late in games.  Off to Green Bay next week, hopefully Bosa is ready for Rodgers.

GO NINERS!

[bbc.reporter]

@bbc.reporter  be careful with Garoppolo's total passing yards, i wouldn't trust him with much today, especially not against that Dallas pass-rushing defense. Micah Parsons has been outstanding all season. I believe he is ranked second or third in pass-rush win rate, and besides the Niners would want to stay committed to the run game as much as possible.

I was just about to reply to bbc.reporter and say essentially the same thing.  I think 250 yards for Jimmy G is a bit ambitious.  The Niners will have to ground and pound to win this game, no believes Garoppolo's arm is going to do it for us.  

For the same reasons, I think Kyler Murry over 255 passing yards is also ambitious.

The both of you are correct and if I am honest, between Jalen Hurts and Jimmy Garoppolo I thought it was Jimmy G who would make the over in passing yards. However, I did it hehehe.

In any case, congratulations to the 49’ers.

@suchmoon. It was a big upset if we consider their performance during the regular season. They had to win the last game in the last quarter to enter the wildcard round. The Cowboys clinched the division.