US Presidential Election 2020

[BluePowder]

In a fair and open world without cheat by mail voting.. Trump wins 90% of the vote hands down.

but that's not the world we live in. the media is owned by the same people that want him out and they will be raising Joe's fake poll numbers
like they did with Hillary as time goes on.  for do nothing democrats it pays to lie and cheat. just look at Bloomberg, day one he announced no candidate investigations for Dems but yes for Trump..
 
Pretty sure Trump will come out on top. He should get 90% of the vote but because of the rigged society we live in he will win with 52% or so.

[1714755463]

1714755463

[tyKiwanuka]

the media is owned by the same people that want him out and they will be raising Joe's fake poll numbers

If they are fake-raising those numbers, this will probably result in the exact opposite of what they want to achieve If Biden leads the polls, you have a) some undecided, but likely democratic, voters not giving their vote, because polls say Biden will win anyway and b) this will motivate the undecided, but likely republican, voters to actually participate.

I really believe that Biden doesn't have a chance against Trump.

Agree. Biden looks very fragile to me, which is of course not unusual for a person of his age; he often seems a bit clumsy and is not very good at defending himself. But he also lacks leadership, personality, charisma. The political/bias aspects aside, Trump is a good leader and has personality - whether you like his leadership/personality is another story.

[Vishnu.Reang]

In a fair and open world without cheat by mail voting.. Trump wins 90% of the vote hands down.

but that's not the world we live in. the media is owned by the same people that want him out and they will be raising Joe's fake poll numbers
like they did with Hillary as time goes on.  for do nothing democrats it pays to lie and cheat. just look at Bloomberg, day one he announced no candidate investigations for Dems but yes for Trump..
 
Pretty sure Trump will come out on top. He should get 90% of the vote but because of the rigged society we live in he will win with 52% or so.

From where did you get this idea about "fake polls"? Opinion polls and exit polls have resembled the actual results very closely, at least for the past several decades. However, what happened in 2016 was an exception. Many of the Trump supporters in the rust-belt region never disclosed their voting preference to the opinion polls, because of fear of backlash against them. Also, the opinion polls at that time over-predicted the voter turnout among the Democrat voters.

[bearexin]

Dude is a trumper, do you really expect him to make sense? Dude is basically saying Trump would get 90% of the votes in a fair election, 90% of the votes! That is over 100 million votes, to think that there is over 100 million people who would vote republican is either a moron or a troll, I rely on the second one because no serious person would say something as stupid as 90% However one thing is for sure, polls do not matter, people think it matters but it really does not.

Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden was basically head to head, few big long lines of voting that took 7 hours to be able to vote sent all the youth away because why bother waiting in line for 7 hours in exchange of your whole future, and we got ourselves a HUGE lead with Biden. It was literally just one line difference to whole future of USA, so do not really rely on polls that much.

[BluePowder]

The polls you see on TV are fake. Why do you think they have such things as liberal polling firms ? You can create any result you want out of a poll, even when the poll numbers don't look good, you can break it down until you get the stat you want, you can even throw it out and start over, like the famous 97% fake climate science poll, where they had to discard 99% of the data to get the fake 97% stat. Politicial polls are even easier since your address, family name, age, etc is pretty close to a certain predictor of you vote for, not to mention the other things a firm might have on your like mined data or results of a previous poll.

Maybe this will ring some bells in the heads of the sleeping idiots. there is a meme going around now of Bill Gates and his favorite books, the top book on his desk is something like "how to cheat on statistics"

In a fair and open world without cheat by mail voting.. Trump wins 90% of the vote hands down.

but that's not the world we live in. the media is owned by the same people that want him out and they will be raising Joe's fake poll numbers
like they did with Hillary as time goes on.  for do nothing democrats it pays to lie and cheat. just look at Bloomberg, day one he announced no candidate investigations for Dems but yes for Trump..
 
Pretty sure Trump will come out on top. He should get 90% of the vote but because of the rigged society we live in he will win with 52% or so.

From where did you get this idea about "fake polls"? Opinion polls and exit polls have resembled the actual results very closely, at least for the past several decades. However, what happened in 2016 was an exception. Many of the Trump supporters in the rust-belt region never disclosed their voting preference to the opinion polls, because of fear of backlash against them. Also, the opinion polls at that time over-predicted the voter turnout among the Democrat voters.

[Daniel91]

In a fair and open world without cheat by mail voting.. Trump wins 90% of the vote hands down.

but that's not the world we live in. the media is owned by the same people that want him out and they will be raising Joe's fake poll numbers
like they did with Hillary as time goes on.  for do nothing democrats it pays to lie and cheat. just look at Bloomberg, day one he announced no candidate investigations for Dems but yes for Trump..
 
Pretty sure Trump will come out on top. He should get 90% of the vote but because of the rigged society we live in he will win with 52% or so.

From where did you get this idea about "fake polls"? Opinion polls and exit polls have resembled the actual results very closely, at least for the past several decades. However, what happened in 2016 was an exception. Many of the Trump supporters in the rust-belt region never disclosed their voting preference to the opinion polls, because of fear of backlash against them. Also, the opinion polls at that time over-predicted the voter turnout among the Democrat voters.

It seems to me that the polls lately are no longer as reliable as they used to be.
Polls aren't just wrong with US presidential election and Trump's victory but also didn't predict that Britain would decide to leave the EU in the referendum.
Trump has been helped quite a bit by the Hillary Clinton's affair with the use of private emails for official purposes and it's convenient that the details of this affair were made public just before the presidential election  
And of course, let's not forget many fake news on FB and other social networks.

[BluePowder]

Joe was nowhere a few months ago, he was on his deathbead as far as the public was concerned, old, damaged, corrupt, do nothing all his life but enrich his family. Now he's #1 because this is how the game is played.

The Democrats choose their candidate behind closed doors and have done so since 1980.  They put a bunch of players on the stage so everyone is represented, blacks, jews, gays, women etc. but the whole game is for those people to bring their people to the main party candidate which they choose and is aligned with their vision. As time goes on, they all drop out and endorse the main candidate. who in this case is so bad that he needs full damage control from the media. The endorsments are made regardless if the main candidate is aligned with the playera 2-7 ,,  a perfect example is Pete who praised Bernie all his lie and even wrote about him in college, but by the time it came to get out he endorsed creepy Joe.  who goes from ditching their life long hero for a hair sniffing pervert.

Should things turn bad for the chosen hero, he/she passes the delegates to the backup player.

Quite frankly Bernie won in 2016 and 2020 .. Why do you think scabs like Whoopi Golderberg call Bernie on live TV to ask humiliating questions like "all the public wants to know is why you haven't dropped out" despite being a close second, and first when you take away the gifted delegates from the players I just mentioned.


I meant 90% of voters, not 90% of the population.

Dude is a trumper, do you really expect him to make sense? Dude is basically saying Trump would get 90% of the votes in a fair election, 90% of the votes! That is over 100 million votes, to think that there is over 100 million people who would vote republican is either a moron or a troll, I rely on the second one because no serious person would say something as stupid as 90% However one thing is for sure, polls do not matter, people think it matters but it really does not.

Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden was basically head to head, few big long lines of voting that took 7 hours to be able to vote sent all the youth away because why bother waiting in line for 7 hours in exchange of your whole future, and we got ourselves a HUGE lead with Biden. It was literally just one line difference to whole future of USA, so do not really rely on polls that much.

[TalkStar]

the media is owned by the same people that want him out and they will be raising Joe's fake poll numbers
like they did with Hillary as time goes on. 

Last election results was enough to prove that media isn't the real game changer. They are just a part of election drama and Hillary clinton knows that much better than anyone. American citizens were enough aware about colorful media's election related news and prediction last time and that's gonna be same for upcoming election too. Its common that most news channel will try their best to increase their TRP but finally voters are the real game changer.

 
Pretty sure Trump will come out on top. He should get 90% of the vote but because of the rigged society we live in he will win with 52% or so.

Expecting 90% is kinda over ambitious IMO where recent corona situation will definitely going to be a big issue for trump. Specially who have already lost their family members due to covid19 will think twice before submitting their vote for trump. Lack of preparation in health sector is clearly showing to all US citizens but still trump is trying to say that they were well prepared. I don't think US citizen will left this matter so easily.    

[BluePowder]

Not really , your out to lunch. Hillary has blood and corruption on her hands since the 1970's when she was fired from government. She should be a 5% candidate, its exactly the media who got her to 50% and a fighting chance. I think you need to back to the drawing board for more research.

the media is owned by the same people that want him out and they will be raising Joe's fake poll numbers
like they did with Hillary as time goes on. 

Last election results was enough to prove that media isn't the real game changer. They are just a part of election drama and Hillary clinton knows that much better than anyone. American citizens were enough aware about colorful media's election related news and prediction last time and that's gonna be same for upcoming election too. Its common that most news channel will try their best to increase their TRP but finally voters are the real game changer.

 
Pretty sure Trump will come out on top. He should get 90% of the vote but because of the rigged society we live in he will win with 52% or so.

Expecting 90% is kinda over ambitious IMO where recent corona situation will definitely going to be a big issue for trump. Specially who have already lost their family members due to covid19 will think twice before submitting their vote for trump. Lack of preparation in health sector is clearly showing to all US citizens but still trump is trying to say that they were well prepared. I don't think US citizen will left this matter so easily.    

[BluePowder]

Here is an excellent short clip for those of you stuggling with problem solving and critical thinking. Which seems to be most of the forum. Its  short 15 min and gets to the point.

It shows how even the liberal young dued didn't let flawed polls and media rackets get in the way and put his own $1000 cash on Trump, despite not voting for him. That's a pretty powerful statement so its worth watching. You always hear things like put your money where your mouth is and he actally did, here he was in May 2016 predicting with analysis, not just wild prediction who would win.

A must watch for your own benefit even if you're a Demonrat, you can definitely learn from it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LibRNYJmZ-I

[bbc.reporter]

In any case, what would be Trumps odds versus only Joe Biden? Who would the odds favor after the debates and campaigns?

The polls seem to favor Biden, but polls are wrong more often than not.  In reality polls are a joke, often posing questions designed to illicit the response the pollsters want.  I really believe that Biden doesn't have a chance against Trump.  I think the Democrats are starting to see it as well.  I doubt they'll give the nomination to anyone else, but I think they are desperate to find a strong running mate for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if they are negotiating with Cuomo, who seems to be the Democrats' Darling Du Jour.

Similar to what the polls said about Hillary and Trump on the last election hehe.

I speculate that Biden's running mate might be a woman. The democrats want their first woman president after their first black president hehehehe.

The only way for this is through 77 year old Biden who the democrats will make sure not finish his term.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Similar to what the polls said about Hillary and Trump on the last election hehe.

I speculate that Biden's running mate might be a woman. The democrats want their first woman president after their first black president hehehehe.

The only way for this is through 77 year old Biden who the democrats will make sure not finish his term.

What about some of those primary candidates, such as Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Kamala Harris or Kirsten Gillibrand? Personally, I would prefer someone who is energetic and popular with the youth, such as Tulsi Gabbard. He's 77 years old, and non-Hispanic white. He needs a running mate, who is young, and non-white. Someone who can attract the youth vote.

[tyKiwanuka]

I speculate that Biden's running mate might be a woman.

What about some of those primary candidates, such as Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Kamala Harris or Kirsten Gillibrand? Personally, I would prefer someone who is energetic and popular with the youth, such as Tulsi Gabbard. He's 77 years old, and non-Hispanic white. He needs a running mate, who is young, and non-white. Someone who can attract the youth vote.

Hmm, if I am not mistaken, Biden repeatedly said, that it will be a woman. Politicians are rarely to be trusted with their words, but the betting markets also have no male candidate listed among the favourites:


Source: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures

The exchanges have Sanders and Romney listed with more or less the same odds (around @100.00) as B. Obama. Cuomo is 230+ and you can bet on Biden for 830^^

@Vishnu.Reang

Since you mentioned Gabbard. You can see she is @61.00 in the screenshot - at Betfair Exchange she is @410.00, so always shop for the best odds, makes a difference longterm

[tomahawk9]

sportsbet(.)au have Clinton @11.00

4 days later and it's currently


Sportsbet.io had Clinton @10.00 odds a couple days ago. As of now:


Well? Are bookies thowing some bait? (i'm being tempted to take the bait lol) or is Hillary actually gaining ground? What @figmentofmyass said a few days ago in this thread got me thinking for a bit:

i truly wonder if another democrat might emerge, if only because of biden's apparent health issues.

[tyKiwanuka]

Well? Are bookies thowing some bait? (i'm being tempted to take the bait lol) or is Hillary actually gaining ground? What @figmentofmyass said a few days ago in this thread got me thinking for a bit:

i truly wonder if another democrat might emerge, if only because of biden's apparent health issues.

We talked about Bidens health issues earlier and it was actually part of my reasoning for opening a trade on Cuomo. Not what I hope for, but from an investment point it maybe makes sense (or for me it does look valuable).

If you are a Hillary believer (are there these people ? ), there is a nice free bet opportunity between Betonline/Betfair. Betonline has @76 for Hillary next president (or winning the election to be precise) and you can lay her at @36+ at Betfair. If I max out my limit at Betonline, it would look like this:


Source: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures#

Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128151441

It's a bit mixed up, because Betonline is in USD and the exchange in Euro. But you basically get your money back with the lay at the exchange and thus have a freebet on Hillary with the chance to win 10,000+ USD/EURO in the unlikely event of Hillary being the next president. You just need to have enough money at Betonline/Betfair. But it also works with smaller stakes of course.

You can also choose to make it a classic surebet. In that case you would win around 280,- Euro no matter the outcome of the election.

This is probably more an educational post, but shows what is possible.

[bbc.reporter]

Similar to what the polls said about Hillary and Trump on the last election hehe.

I speculate that Biden's running mate might be a woman. The democrats want their first woman president after their first black president hehehehe.

The only way for this is through 77 year old Biden who the democrats will make sure not finish his term.

What about some of those primary candidates, such as Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Kamala Harris or Kirsten Gillibrand? Personally, I would prefer someone who is energetic and popular with the youth, such as Tulsi Gabbard. He's 77 years old, and non-Hispanic white. He needs a running mate, who is young, and non-white. Someone who can attract the youth vote.

Agreed! Do you read a lot about American politics?

In any case, if I was given the power to choose who would run under the democratic party, I like Bernie Sanders and Tulsi. They are scared of people who want real change, however hehehe.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Hmm, if I am not mistaken, Biden repeatedly said, that it will be a woman. Politicians are rarely to be trusted with their words, but the betting markets also have no male candidate listed among the favourites:


Source: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures

The exchanges have Sanders and Romney listed with more or less the same odds (around @100.00) as B. Obama. Cuomo is 230+ and you can bet on Biden for 830^^

@Vishnu.Reang

Since you mentioned Gabbard. You can see she is @61.00 in the screenshot - at Betfair Exchange she is @410.00, so always shop for the best odds, makes a difference longterm

Gabbard is someone who can get additional votes for Biden. I mean votes outside the traditional Democratic vote block. And she may help Biden in swing states and with some of the demographic groups. On the other hand, Kamala Harris may not get any additional votes for Biden. She can help him only in deep-Blue states and deep-Red states.

@tyKiwanuka, I haven't decided whether I should make a bet in favor of Tulsi for veep. May be I'll, but with a very small amount. The only confirmed bet as of now is in favor of Biden for the 2020 POTUS elections.

[BluePowder]

Save your money.. I read a few of your comments, you don't understand a thing about US politics.

Tulsi got less votes than every other woman. how is that going to help. she's not even welcome in the DNC. she already announced she's not returning next year and the DNC blacklisted her, on top of that she has a $50 mill lawsuit against Killary.

Hmm, if I am not mistaken, Biden repeatedly said, that it will be a woman. Politicians are rarely to be trusted with their words, but the betting markets also have no male candidate listed among the favourites:


Source: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-futures

The exchanges have Sanders and Romney listed with more or less the same odds (around @100.00) as B. Obama. Cuomo is 230+ and you can bet on Biden for 830^^

@Vishnu.Reang

Since you mentioned Gabbard. You can see she is @61.00 in the screenshot - at Betfair Exchange she is @410.00, so always shop for the best odds, makes a difference longterm

Gabbard is someone who can get additional votes for Biden. I mean votes outside the traditional Democratic vote block. And she may help Biden in swing states and with some of the demographic groups. On the other hand, Kamala Harris may not get any additional votes for Biden. She can help him only in deep-Blue states and deep-Red states.

@tyKiwanuka, I haven't decided whether I should make a bet in favor of Tulsi for veep. May be I'll, but with a very small amount. The only confirmed bet as of now is in favor of Biden for the 2020 POTUS elections.

[tyKiwanuka]

Looks like we have a little Corona cluster in and around the White House now. We had one of Trumps valets, Mike Pence's press secretary and a personal assitant of Ivanka Trump testing positive in the last days.

Trump himself and the people around him get tested every day now. It's good to discover the virus early, but since there is no real treatment yet and Trump still refuses to wear a mask, he is always in danger to catch that virus and he is among the vulnerable persons just by his age.

Just recently Pence visited a hospital, without wearing a mask:


Source: https://www.fr24news.com/a/2020/04/coronavirus-mike-pence-flouts-hospital-mask-rule.html

It's quite amazing that neither Trump nor Pence have caught that virus yet, regarding the risk they (have to) take each day. With the latest news about the cases near the WH, the market for Republican nominee saw some action as well and there is now a big lay for Trump being nominee (it's not from me, if anybody thinks that^^):


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128999265

18k lay is quite a big amount in this market and looks like someone is speculating on a) Trump getting tested positive or b) the situation in the US getting so bad, that Trump comes under huge pressure. To me it looks like the situation is all but under control in the US, while they are already re-opening their economy and public life step by step. I wonder what would have to happen non-healthwise for Trump to NOT be republican nominee.

[Vishnu.Reang]

^^^^ Infection rates skyrocketed in countries such as Italy and Spain, when they partially relaxed the lockdown. If the same happens in the United States as well, then Trump would be in big trouble. Already the state of New York has one of the highest infection rates in the world (17,653 cases per million, when compared to 5,661 for Spain and 3,610 for Italy). Trump may or may not get infected with COVID. But his approval ratings are going to fall steeply in the coming months if the situation doesn't improve.

Those presidents who didn't take the virus seriously are responsible for thousands of additional deaths. I am not just talking about Trump. There are at least a dozen others, including Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico and Stefan Löfven of Sweden.