US Presidential Election 2020

[Captain Corporate]

 Do not rely on polls when it comes to these things, Trump had a %18 chance to win the last one at one point, but he managed to increase that slowly but surely and eventually won. This time around its the reverse though, last time around it was Trump that had to claw back and win it, this time its Biden's chance to do the same while all Trump has to do is not to lose more votes, he already won, he is the president, he needs to do exactly what he did last time to win, so his job is to not lose instead of winning. Biden has a big advantage because when you are the sitting president everything you do is under media eye, but when you are a nominee your regular everyday stuff doesn't get attention, your presidency related stuff gets the only attention, you can't make national trouble when a nominee because you don't have that power.

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[STT]

absentee voting

I vote by mail all the time if I can just because its very easy to get distracted on that particular day.   I've had jobs where I work till 9pm all hours low pay and going to vote would add 2 hours to my day so I didnt but thats a terrible choice and way to decide 4 years of power and democracy by who has the luxury of free time and transport on that particular day.   So I disagree with restriction, they could easily allow anyone whose submitted taxes in previous years and lots of qualifying ways people already interact with government.

The standing advantage is always going to be with a returning president but the odds remain good for an upset bet win on many fronts I think.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Do not rely on polls when it comes to these things, Trump had a %18 chance to win the last one at one point, but he managed to increase that slowly but surely and eventually won. This time around its the reverse though, last time around it was Trump that had to claw back and win it, this time its Biden's chance to do the same while all Trump has to do is not to lose more votes, he already won, he is the president, he needs to do exactly what he did last time to win, so his job is to not lose instead of winning. Biden has a big advantage because when you are the sitting president everything you do is under media eye, but when you are a nominee your regular everyday stuff doesn't get attention, your presidency related stuff gets the only attention, you can't make national trouble when a nominee because you don't have that power.

Back then, the polls and the betting sites under-estimated Trump. And this time they are doing just the opposite. The COVID 19 pandemic has created an extra-ordinary situation. One-fifth of the adult population is without jobs. And the death of George Floyd made things even worse for Trump. Still, 5 months remaining for the elections, and a lot can change.

[bbc.reporter]

There are rumors on the internet that there might be a foreign government and leftists that is supporting a group called Antifa to organize riots across America.

I am very certain that the riots will end before November and the truth or the storyboard of a truth will be exposed. If there is some evidence or there appears to be evidence that Antifa was really funded by the leftists, I reckon the independent voters, who decides the winner, would be convinced to move right towards Trump because they want security and stability first before leftist political agendas.

[figmentofmyass]

i'm sure the pendulum will swing back to some degree, but the trump-biden reversal is an incredible sight to watch. if you like trump in november, bookies are giving you better and better odds every day.

when i started tracking this, it was 49-42 trump. now it's 51-43 biden.
https://odds.watch/joe-biden-2020
https://odds.watch/trump-2020

unfortunately for the cuomo bet, momentum seems to be coalescing around biden.

[tyKiwanuka]

i'm sure the pendulum will swing back to some degree, but the trump-biden reversal is an incredible sight to watch.

Yep, it's amazing and I am not sure, what is the main driving factor here in the last days, because I have a hard time imagining it's "just" the protests/riots. Those riots and looting I would even have thought to play into the hands of Trump tbh.
I think it's the fact, that Biden came out of his cave and is more present in the media now - showing up healthy and with some fighting spirit, after having been invisible for ages. But odds of 1.97 look a bit short to me (overreaction)

unfortunately for the cuomo bet, momentum seems to be coalescing around biden.

This was a bit expected unfortunately. He is trading at above 200 now, indicating a probability of less then 0.5%, which I find a tad too low then again. I cut my losses a bit with laying him at 85, but will maybe jump in again at 250-ish (to make this a complete disaster ).

[casperBGD]

i'm sure the pendulum will swing back to some degree, but the trump-biden reversal is an incredible sight to watch. if you like trump in november, bookies are giving you better and better odds every day.

when i started tracking this, it was 49-42 trump. now it's 51-43 biden.
https://odds.watch/joe-biden-2020
https://odds.watch/trump-2020

unfortunately for the cuomo bet, momentum seems to be coalescing around biden.

will be interesting, do not know how they think that Biden has advantage at the moment, but Trump is trying to politicize all decisions at the moment to increase his re-election chances

[leea-1334]

 Do not rely on polls when it comes to these things, Trump had a %18 chance to win the last one at one point, but he managed to increase that slowly but surely and eventually won. This time around its the reverse though, last time around it was Trump that had to claw back and win it, this time its Biden's chance to do the same while all Trump has to do is not to lose more votes, he already won, he is the president, he needs to do exactly what he did last time to win, so his job is to not lose instead of winning. Biden has a big advantage because when you are the sitting president everything you do is under media eye, but when you are a nominee your regular everyday stuff doesn't get attention, your presidency related stuff gets the only attention, you can't make national trouble when a nominee because you don't have that power.

Exactly, same as Brexit a few months before that. Trump is hateful and hated right now,,, and he is probably a bit unlucky to have this riot blow up during his tenure but in the end he has a very good campaign manager. He knows who to win votes from, and he will do whatever it takes to win those votes. He is a businessman after all.

[darewaller]

The reason why Biden is getting a bigger chance to win right now from the bookmakers is literally the riots. They are thinking if people who rioted against the police brutality all go out to vote that would mean the end of Trump. But, do you know what is the biggest issue in all of USA?

The fact that there is a HUGE amount of people who do not vote, they are regular people like you and me, they do riot as well, they do get into fights, they do say bad things about Trump too, but they do not want to vote for Hillary or Biden for that matter neither. That is why usually polls and bookmakers are having big swings, I mean sure they could be right about Biden winning, after all there is two candidates and one will win, but that doesn't change the fact that the results swing so much from one side to another, and that is the people who do not want to vote.

[Captain Corporate]

 He is not really a good business man, he has bankrupted more companies than anyone I have ever seen, he literally bankrupted a casino, a casino! They are literally money printing machines. But he took out loans at a rate that was surreal just to open it and when he couldn't pay the loans back because of the huge interest rates that he literally agreed while getting the loan, he closed the casino down. He has a million different companies that he bankrupted. The only reason why he is seen as a "businessman" is the simple fact that when you owe the bank 100 dollars its your problem, when you owe them 100 million dollars its their problem. So banks kept bailing him out and in the end just cut ties, thats when he started to take out loans from banks that got caught laundering money for Russians.

 Calculate all of this and tell me how it looks, because to me it looks as shady as it gets.

[bittraffic]

 Do not rely on polls when it comes to these things, Trump had a %18 chance to win the last one at one point, but he managed to increase that slowly but surely and eventually won. This time around its the reverse though, last time around it was Trump that had to claw back and win it, this time its Biden's chance to do the same while all Trump has to do is not to lose more votes, he already won, he is the president, he needs to do exactly what he did last time to win, so his job is to not lose instead of winning. Biden has a big advantage because when you are the sitting president everything you do is under media eye, but when you are a nominee your regular everyday stuff doesn't get attention, your presidency related stuff gets the only attention, you can't make national trouble when a nominee because you don't have that power.

Exactly, same as Brexit a few months before that. Trump is hateful and hated right now,,, and he is probably a bit unlucky to have this riot blow up during his tenure but in the end he has a very good campaign manager. He knows who to win votes from, and he will do whatever it takes to win those votes. He is a businessman after all.

He still is the president I'm sure he had already managed to make more people tie with him for re-election. He made a lot of enemies who are very vocal about their negative look toward him but building walls I guess are more important for anyone out there. This riot and pandemic are the worse to face being a president but he seems to have handled it good already.  The fight isn't over but almost sure he still will win.

[7788bitcoin]

There are rumors on the internet that there might be a foreign government and leftists that is supporting a group called Antifa to organize riots across America.

I am very certain that the riots will end before November and the truth or the storyboard of a truth will be exposed. If there is some evidence or there appears to be evidence that Antifa was really funded by the leftists, I reckon the independent voters, who decides the winner, would be convinced to move right towards Trump because they want security and stability first before leftist political agendas.

I am not sure what is going on now, one thing is sure, it is not the best time to be a president, first with the pandemic and now with all the protest across America and now the riots. What ever may be the situation things are getting violent and some are taking advantage of the situation looting shops and destroying property and these are not a good to show for Trump to get reelected. Before these situation i though Trump would win but now i am not that confident.

[Vishnu.Reang]

i'm sure the pendulum will swing back to some degree, but the trump-biden reversal is an incredible sight to watch. if you like trump in november, bookies are giving you better and better odds every day.

when i started tracking this, it was 49-42 trump. now it's 51-43 biden.
https://odds.watch/joe-biden-2020
https://odds.watch/trump-2020

unfortunately for the cuomo bet, momentum seems to be coalescing around biden.

51-42 now, in favor of Biden. The odds seems to be getting better for Biden with every passing day. I need to change my previous assessment about the rioting. As of now, it looks like it may not give any advantage for Trump.

All that said, I was stunned by a series of opinion polls from the left-leaning CNBC. They are saying that Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania (50-46), and that too by a big margin. This is like a must-win state for Biden. If he losses PA, then he needs to win FL. The same poll says that both Trump and Biden are tied in Wisconsin (45-45) and a right-leaning FOX News poll released on the same day showed Trump trailing Wisconsin by 9 points.

CNBC poll: https://www.changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-6
Fox News poll: https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Wisconsin_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf

[figmentofmyass]

i'm sure the pendulum will swing back to some degree, but the trump-biden reversal is an incredible sight to watch.

Yep, it's amazing and I am not sure, what is the main driving factor here in the last days, because I have a hard time imagining it's "just" the protests/riots. Those riots and looting I would even have thought to play into the hands of Trump tbh.

his recent attempts at appealing to christian voters were very poorly received, with religious leaders---including the incredibly influential televangelist pat robertson---publicly speaking out against him. that dude has a massive conservative christian audience.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/politics/pat-robertson-donald-trump/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/02/politics/trump-bible-churches-protests/index.html

opinions of trump among religious conservatives were already declining. it's looking worse by the day.

re the law & order angle, maybe under normal circumstances it would help him, but on top of his terrible optics around race relations i believe underneath the surface of these protests there is deep and widespread economic distress underlying. as i've said before, trump is taking a massive political gamble by choosing now to spearhead an austerity movement. his administration is strongly pushing back against economic relief measures, they are cutting food stamp benefits, etc despite the fact that so much of his core voter base is poor and likely to be struggling because of the pandemic. the optics are just terrible re pretty much everything he is doing right now.

i do expect that pendulum of public opinion to swing back but he should seriously consider going into damage control mode instead of being ultra polarizing and inflammatory. he is just being crucified by public opinion on both sides of the aisle. religious conservatives =/= trump-ites and he needs to stop taking them for granted.

I think it's the fact, that Biden came out of his cave and is more present in the media now - showing up healthy and with some fighting spirit, after having been invisible for ages.

yup and tbh i'm wondering how long biden can keep that up. he has indicated plans to become much more involved (finally leaving his house, delivering lengthier speeches, etc)---lots of chances to massively screw up ahead of the DNC in august.

[johhnyUA]

maybe so in other countries. i think you are underestimating attitudes about that in the USA, and also the amount of "white guilt" among liberal voters. i feel that anyone falling along pro/anti-law & order or racism lines was polarized by trump a long, long time ago.

the big risk for trump is that voters will actually come out in november and the more inflammatory his actions are, the more likely a big turnout becomes. the bigger the turnout, the worse trump's chances are. that's generally true for republicans, which is why they fight so hard against vote-by-mail or anything that will make it easier to vote.

Man, this is in all countries, because this is in human nature. In most humans of course. So after such pogroms Trumps electoral rating can raise up very high, if he of course will resolve it. Important point: if he will show himself too weak,( for example hiding in bunker like it was some time before), or too aggressive (will use military with big human loses) his rating of course will fall in dark bottom.

[figmentofmyass]

in another blow to the cuomo bet, biden officially clinched the democratic nomination today after winning in guam, crossing the 1991 delegates required to win on the first DNC ballot. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/06/politics/joe-biden-democratic-nomination/index.html

betfair is still showing combined chances of trump or biden at 94%. i'm sorta surprised this gap hasn't closed up more than it has. correct me if i'm wrong but i don't think biden can lose via a traditional brokered convention now. given that the sexual assault allegations already lost momentum, he would basically have to drop out for medical reasons. that's a long shot but not impossible.

assuming he makes it through the DNC, then due to the medical angle his VP pick probably matters. biden has indicated he plans to pick a woman as a running mate---and at this rate i'm betting on a black woman---which doesn't work for the cuomo bet either.

[tyz]

Do not rely on polls when it comes to these things, Trump had a %18 chance to win the last one at one point, but he managed to increase that slowly but surely and eventually won.
-snip-

Exactly! I remember a poll of NYT on Twitter one or two days before the election that the winning chance of Clinton is 90% to 10% (even though I made a screenshot of the tweet I can not find it anymore). Nevertheless, there are other sources like this which summarizes the polls for a period of time back in 2016, and where Clinton always had a massive lead.



Source: http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2016/10/18/presidential-forecast-updates/newsletter.html

If there is one thing that 2016 has made clear to us, it is that you should not trust polls.

[k@suy]

Do not rely on polls when it comes to these things, Trump had a %18 chance to win the last one at one point, but he managed to increase that slowly but surely and eventually won.
-snip-

Exactly! I remember a poll of NYT on Twitter one or two days before the election that the winning chance of Clinton is 90% to 10% (even though I made a screenshot of the tweet I can not find it anymore). Nevertheless, there a other sources like this which summarizes the polls for a period of time back in 2016, and where Clinton always had a massive lead.



Source: http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2016/10/18/presidential-forecast-updates/newsletter.html

If there is one thing that 2016 has made clear to us, it is that you should not trust polls.

That's right we shouldn't trust polls because it is not accurate and even if someone is on the top like clinton on  2016 presidential election, nobody can predict what will happens next just like that clinton is on the top but during the day of the announcement of the winner, it turns out that trump is the one who won on the election.

[tyz]

That's right we shouldn't trust polls because it is not accurate and even if someone is on the top like clinton on  2016 presidential election, nobody can predict what will happens next just like that clinton is on the top but during the day of the announcement of the winner, it turns out that trump is the one who won on the election.

I would argue that strict scientific criteria can be used to predict a election result fairly accurately. The only question is whether it is idiologically wanted. After the election 2016, some newspapers and polling institutes admitted that they probably lived in a bubble. The bubble primarily referred to so-called liberal areas on the east and west coasts and mostly ignored the heart and mainland. Institutes which were more openly to other opinions did a far better prediction, for example the Universtiy of California => https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20161108-story.html (which by the way was critized by some media for the good poll results for Trump before the election).

After observing in recent years that many of such liberal journalists have moved out of their bubble and also looked at other opinions in the country more strongly, it has recently seemed to me as if this is being reversed, also due to the latest political developments. For this reason, I think that current polls do not reflect the reality.

[Vishnu.Reang]

in another blow to the cuomo bet, biden officially clinched the democratic nomination today after winning in guam, crossing the 1991 delegates required to win on the first DNC ballot. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/06/politics/joe-biden-democratic-nomination/index.html

betfair is still showing combined chances of trump or biden at 94%. i'm sorta surprised this gap hasn't closed up more than it has. correct me if i'm wrong but i don't think biden can lose via a traditional brokered convention now. given that the sexual assault allegations already lost momentum, he would basically have to drop out for medical reasons. that's a long shot but not impossible.

assuming he makes it through the DNC, then due to the medical angle his VP pick probably matters. biden has indicated he plans to pick a woman as a running mate---and at this rate i'm betting on a black woman---which doesn't work for the cuomo bet either.

Since Biden is white male, and the Democrat voter base is majority non-white, it is logical to assume that he'd pick a non-white woman as his VP pick (probably a black woman, given the prevailing sentiments). As I had posted a few weeks back, I would have favored Tulsi Gabbard for that post. But she has antagonized quite a few of the established Democrats, and I would assume that she has little chance now. I just hope that it is someone other than the corrupt Kamala Harris. She can be a very divisive figure.