US Presidential Election 2020

[tyKiwanuka]

Kamala Harris odds is on 47.90 on Cloudbet.

I give you 80 for her, if you want


Just saw a poll in TV: "Does Joe Biden have a chance against Trump ?" Yes 85% - No 15%. This should be 100% for yes, because of course he has a chance, the question is only how big it is. The odds only know one direction at the moment; it's slow but steady, down to 2.42 at Betfair, bye bye 3.0+.

Biden has played a lot of his cards already what it feels like, while Trump is just starting. The niece of him was in TV here yesterday (via Skype) and as expected was telling what a loser Trump actually is and that he would be nothing without his father and just lost money with everything he touched. She wasn't very objective, but anyway.

The next weeks will be Donnie-time imo and I expect him to even be favourite in the betting markets again then. It's a bit annoying to have missed out on the higher odds, but 2.4+ looks good as well at this point. I am somehow rooting for a narrow Biden win just for the drama it would create, since Trump wouldn't accept the outcome of course. 2016 was already fun to follow but this election should top everything - I don't even need to bet on it, to already get excited. Popcorn ready.

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[Vishnu.Reang]

This might be a crazy speculation. However, what if the Democrats' plan is on having Joe Biden step down and then replaced by Kamala Harris to run as president?

The Democrats want their black president in 2008, their female president on 2016 and they might want their black female president combined on 2020 hehehehe.

Kamala Harris odds is on 47.90 on Cloudbet.

Kamala is a very experienced senator. But she is not as experienced as Biden or Hillary, in order to qualify for the presidential nomination. It is all but certain that she'll be the Democrat candidate for the 2024 POTUS elections. By then, she can widen her support base (which is limited to far-left and the African Americans right now). She needs to take a moderate stance on many of the policies and need to attract educated whites and Hispanics.

[Darkoth89]

The next weeks will be Donnie-time imo and I expect him to even be favourite in the betting markets again then. It's a bit annoying to have missed out on the higher odds, but 2.4+ looks good as well at this point. I am somehow rooting for a narrow Biden win just for the drama it would create, since Trump wouldn't accept the outcome of course. 2016 was already fun to follow but this election should top everything - I don't even need to bet on it, to already get excited. Popcorn ready.

Not sure how the latest polls look but CNN reported 2 days ago that Biden's lead over Trump has significantly decreased over the last month(s) (Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-august/index.html). So the Democrats shouldn't be too overly confident of victory

It will be interesting to see how Biden performs in the TV debates. That's something that would make me nervous if I were him.

[figmentofmyass]

If you ask me the quest for the first female president of USA is looking stronger than ever. Kamala Harris is a real candidate with some real influence and I think she stands a great chance to win.

Kamala Harris has been chosen by Biden to be his vice president. She is not running for president.

to be fair, the 2020 democratic VP candidate is being groomed for the 2024 presidential nomination. there's no way biden is running again in 2024. she's got a better shot than any other woman i can see.

This might be a crazy speculation. However, what if the Democrats' plan is on having Joe Biden step down and then replaced by Kamala Harris to run as president?

some have been speculating that all along, given biden's potentially poor cognitive state. the chances are very slim prior to the election IMO, but him stepping down sometime between 2021 and 2024 seems plausible.

Kamala is a very experienced senator. But she is not as experienced as Biden or Hillary, in order to qualify for the presidential nomination.

how much experience did trump have?

she's been in public office since 2004 and was attorney general of california---nothing to sneeze at IMO. she might have just the right background too.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Kamala is a very experienced senator. But she is not as experienced as Biden or Hillary, in order to qualify for the presidential nomination.

how much experience did trump have?

she's been in public office since 2004 and was attorney general of california---nothing to sneeze at IMO. she might have just the right background too.

Like I said, I never claimed that Kamala is inexperienced. But if you take the list of top 5 Democrat politicians in the United States, I don't think that Kamala would be included in that list. I just want to say that Biden is the most suitable candidate for 2020, while Kamala may become the first female president of the United States in 2024. What difference does it make, whether she becomes the president now, or four years later?

[bitcoinst]

There is one thing I know: Nothing happens in America by chance. Everything happens as expected. The leader in the surveys is probably the one to win the elections.

I cannot agree with you. In my opinion, everything that happens in the world happens to one degree or another by chance. It's just that for us it looks like such an overview that it seems to us that targeted actions led to this.

The world is gradually turning into a despotic world. Under these circumstances, I do not expect a different leader to become president.

What do you mean by an oppressive world? On the contrary, now there are fewer and fewer countries in the world where power is concentrated in one body or one person. Especially in America.
Decentralization of power is what democracy and freedom of any country should be based on. Different authorities must neutralize the human factor and errors in the conclusions of other structures.
On the example of dictatorial countries, we can see how damaging the centralized policy of states is.

[johhnyUA]

Steve Bannon was arrested - https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/08/20/steve-bannon-indicted-border-wall-fundraising-vpx.cnn

He was one who helped Trump to win his previous elections and now with big probability Steve is going to jail for his "Great wall" scam. Not so good for Trump.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Some of the recent opinion polls suggest that Trump may be rebounding. Two days back, there was a poll from the Trafalgar Group, which showed that Biden and Trump are tied in the swing state of Minnesota. Another poll shows Biden leading by 4 points in Pennsylvania, but the earlier polls had measured his advantage at 6 to 10 points. This is a small rebound, and we need to check whether this trend is going to continue for the next few weeks.

[tyKiwanuka]

Some of the recent opinion polls suggest that Trump may be rebounding. Two days back, there was a poll from the Trafalgar Group, which showed that Biden and Trump are tied in the swing state of Minnesota. Another poll shows Biden leading by 4 points in Pennsylvania, but the earlier polls had measured his advantage at 6 to 10 points. This is a small rebound, and we need to check whether this trend is going to continue for the next few weeks.

Well, Trumps odds have gone down further (2.34 currently at Betfair) and this of course due to those polls as well, which then reflects in the state betting odds. Long way to go in Minnesota (4.75 -> 3.75), Pennsylvania looks a bit more realistic (3.00 -> 2.60). Other bigger drops pro Republicans happened in Iowa, Georgia, Texas, Michigan and Arizona.


Odds taken from: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/politics/electoral-college

If I consider everything 1.50 and lower a safe bet, it's 266 - 186 pro Biden, with 83 votes tbd. Some weeks ago it was 276 - 164 (95) as can be seen here, so Trump definitely has some momentum.

[TedMosby]

Have you guys read this?

• Gambling sites and betting odds are better at predicting election results than polls. Source
  

We need to start our polling institution soon. lol.

[figmentofmyass]

Have you guys read this?

• Gambling sites and betting odds are better at predicting election results than polls. Source
  

We need to start our polling institution soon. lol.

maybe so, but the advantages are sorta overstated. if you'll recall, bookmaker odds were heavily in favor of hillary in 2016 (IIRC betfair was around 75%), not so different from the polls.

punters are better informed then the average person surveyed in a political poll---i'll give it that. but if you see odds suggesting a 60% or 70% likely outcome, it's still pretty damn unpredictable. even if we assume they are pricing the odds 100% correctly, that's 3-4 out of every 10 they will be wrong.

do you have any idea how many 60/40 flips i lose at the poker table?

[Vishnu.Reang]

Some of the recent opinion polls suggest that Trump may be rebounding. Two days back, there was a poll from the Trafalgar Group, which showed that Biden and Trump are tied in the swing state of Minnesota. Another poll shows Biden leading by 4 points in Pennsylvania, but the earlier polls had measured his advantage at 6 to 10 points. This is a small rebound, and we need to check whether this trend is going to continue for the next few weeks.

Well, Trumps odds have gone down further (2.34 currently at Betfair) and this of course due to those polls as well, which then reflects in the state betting odds. Long way to go in Minnesota (4.75 -> 3.75), Pennsylvania looks a bit more realistic (3.00 -> 2.60). Other bigger drops pro Republicans happened in Iowa, Georgia, Texas, Michigan and Arizona.


Odds taken from: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/politics/electoral-college

If I consider everything 1.50 and lower a safe bet, it's 266 - 186 pro Biden, with 83 votes tbd. Some weeks ago it was 276 - 164 (95) as can be seen here, so Trump definitely has some momentum.

To be honest, Trump doesn't have a realistic chance of winning states such as Minnesota. He had in 2016, but not now. But here the point to note is that Trump needs to win all the swing states (83 electoral votes). He can't afford to lose even one of them. And that looks almost impossible now, given Biden's lead in states such as Wisconsin and Florida.

Momentum is with him, but he needs a lot more to stay competitive in the race.

[tyz]

According to a recent CNN poll (as we know not really a Trump friendly news channel), Trump is catching up fast. The number of voters who would vote for him and Pence rose from 41% to 46%. For Biden and Harris would vote 50%. And the television duels have not even started yet. Trump could play out his strength in direct duels and gain further ground. It remains exciting.

Overall, 50% of registered voters back the Biden-Harris ticket, while 46% say they support Trump and Pence, right at the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

[STT]

Could be the strategy to create China as a great menace is working, its not a hard image to project given their size and communist backbone.   They are probably the greatest threat to their own people rather especially a growing threat over other considerations.   I heard a speech given at the Nixon library referencing the Nixon shock events and how Nixon while optimistic then would be disappointed in how this trade has turned out, long serious speech that could have been given years ago but its now because its a serious part of the campaign I think.    A common enemy unites and to get the election win they need all the possible votes not be divided, so it might be as simple as that now reflecting in those poll figures.
   Sleepy Joe asleep at the switch vs the red menace, its the kind of advert that sells itself doesn't have to be true to any extent and of course Russia wants Trump to remain Im pretty certain as a withdrawal of troops is a big deal to them.     Russia and China are in a trade alliance and both are backing their currency with gold increasingly to be in sync for that trade, I dont think even if China disliked Trump they would go against Russia's wishes to back whatever story sells a Trump election win.

[notblox1]

According to a recent CNN poll (as we know not really a Trump friendly news channel), Trump is catching up fast. The number of voters who would vote for him and Pence rose from 41% to 46%. For Biden and Harris would vote 50%. And the television duels have not even started yet. Trump could play out his strength in direct duels and gain further ground. It remains exciting.

Honestly I don't trust any mainstream or other public polls very much.
We all know who pays for this research and polls, results are often distorted, and all they can show is some trend maybe.
Just look what happened before in history with similar examples.
I can't see Biden winning this election, and maybe it's time for younger presidential candidates next time.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Honestly I don't trust any mainstream or other public polls very much.
We all know who pays for this research and polls, results are often distorted, and all they can show is some trend maybe.
Just look what happened before in history with similar examples.
I can't see Biden winning this election, and maybe it's time for younger presidential candidates next time.

The polls went horribly wrong last time (2016), but they claim that they have rectified their methodology. And I believe that the current polls accurately depict the support levels for Trump/Biden. However, the gambling sites are taking a more cautious approach, and that may be the reason why they are giving a higher chance for Trump, than he actually deserve.

[tyz]

The polls went horribly wrong last time (2016), but they claim that they have rectified their methodology. And I believe that the current polls accurately depict the support levels for Trump/Biden. However, the gambling sites are taking a more cautious approach, and that may be the reason why they are giving a higher chance for Trump, than he actually deserve.

I don't know how the bookmakers did in the last presidential election in 2016, but I know that they were terribly wrong about the Brexit referendum. The odds were clearly pro-European. We know how it turned out. Here is an interesting article about it.

EU Referendum: How the bookies got it so wrong over Brexit
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-brexit-how-the-bookies-got-eu-referendum-odds-so-wrong-40-million-bet-a7100856.html

[Juggy777]

Honestly I don't trust any mainstream or other public polls very much.
We all know who pays for this research and polls, results are often distorted, and all they can show is some trend maybe.
Just look what happened before in history with similar examples.
I can't see Biden winning this election, and maybe it's time for younger presidential candidates next time.

The polls went horribly wrong last time (2016), but they claim that they have rectified their methodology. And I believe that the current polls accurately depict the support levels for Trump/Biden. However, the gambling sites are taking a more cautious approach, and that may be the reason why they are giving a higher chance for Trump, than he actually deserve.

@notblox1 it’s fine to not trust the polls but this time Trump is definitely trailing, and he needs to do something spectacular to convince the voters to vote for him. Furthermore Allan Lichtman who has correctly predicted that Trump would win the 2016 elections has now claimed that Trump will lose the 2020 elections, and for those who do not know he’s got all the election results right from 1984 hence his words matter a lot.

Sources:

https://www.cnbc.com/business/

https://www.newsweek.com/what-experts-who-predicted-trumps-2016-win-think-will-happen-2020-1526559

[DarkDays]

According to a recent CNN poll (as we know not really a Trump friendly news channel), Trump is catching up fast. The number of voters who would vote for him and Pence rose from 41% to 46%. For Biden and Harris would vote 50%. And the television duels have not even started yet. Trump could play out his strength in direct duels and gain further ground. It remains exciting.

Honestly I don't trust any mainstream or other public polls very much.
We all know who pays for this research and polls, results are often distorted, and all they can show is some trend maybe.
Just look what happened before in history with similar examples.
I can't see Biden winning this election, and maybe it's time for younger presidential candidates next time.

This is what I thought too! I was exactly of the same opinion! Especially when I saw that Trump was actually leading and trending according to so some polls back during his campaign. I was so sure that the election polls that these news channels were showing must have been rigged. There was absolutely no other way for the great and enlightened American people to be leaning towards such an asshole of a guy! But nope! I was wrong, turns out that the americans somehow chose Trump over Hilary or even Bernie! So by the end of it all, I concluded that even if the actual election is rigged, the polls are probably not rigged at all!

I highly doubt Trump will win against after his botched handling of the coronavirus and clear intend to manipulate the election by preventing mail-in voting. He's out, that's for sure.

[bbc.reporter]

Kamala Harris odds is on 47.90 on Cloudbet.

I give you 80 for her, if you want

No thank you hehehe. I was only speculating on what would the Democrats do if Biden suddenly lost his memory in the middle of his campaign. Would this make Kamala Harris the automatic replacement or would they give Hillary another chance?