US Presidential Election 2020

[bbc.reporter]

trump will win its not about poitics. I made a killing last year on trump. Its really simple electoral college is made for trump and states that trump needs to win he will because not enough demcratc will come out and vote in those states and trump supports will always comes out. They dont support republcains they support trump

Once again, you guys are assuming that what happened in 2016 would repeat in 2020. That is not going to happen, and we saw that during the 2018 senate elections. Even states which were once considered as Republican strongholds, such as Arizona ended up electing Democrat senators. The reading on the wall is loud and clear. Trump was relatively unknown in 2016, and it worked to his advantage. But now people have realized that he is as bad as anyone out there.

I reckon that there might be many patriotic Americans who are not political but would vote for Trump because they dislike the fringe extreme leftists who riot and tear down historical statues. Do not underestimate how many those type of voters are.

Also, Trump has a strong voter base that would never leave him.

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[jademaxsuy]

I reckon that there might be many patriotic Americans who are not political but would vote for Trump because they dislike the fringe extreme leftists who riot and tear down historical statues. Do not underestimate how many those type of voters are.

Also, Trump has a strong voter base that would never leave him.

So that is a practical guess. I am not from U.S but Trump name is was going politically always mention in news. Trump as a leader of a a great nation facing lot of challenges including this pandemic.

The U.S had recorded a huge number of covid19 cases and has higher deaths recorded. So whoever will be the next president this surely bring a real challenge.

Betting on the election would be fun yet so where could this be done and what platform?

[tyKiwanuka]

weaker perhaps as an overall politician, but in the context of a presidential election i disagree. people are still in denial about how hated hillary is/was. i hated her, and i'm no republican. i don't think the USA was nearly ready to elect a woman president either.

a centrist old white guy (biden) with executive experience will appeal to republican moderates and senior citizens who are tired of trump. meanwhile, the dems can throw the identity politics crowd a bone by signing on a black woman VP like kamala harris.

a biden/harris ticket is stronger than clinton/kaine was in 2016 IMO.

Yep, you are probably right here. I live with a female "president" for ages already and all good, so I maybe find it a bit weird, that people still kind of refuse to vote for a female politician/leader, when there are very good examples of women leading countries successfully. It shouldn't be about gender, but about quality in the end. (And as a personal note: I think the world would be a better place, if we only had women as leaders).

What also is a bit strange to me, is the fact of a rather old gentleman running for presidency. Age shouldn't be a criteria as well, but Biden is showing signs of just being a bit too old already. Here, a politician of his age, would just enjoy his retirement and a fat pension, maybe showing up in some political talk shows from time to time. I don't think we have any active politician being 75+.

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My issue probably is, that I just look until November 3rd 2020, I basically don't care what happens afterwards, while those people that actually go voting look for everything that might happen after Nov 3rd And during this time window I see Trump being way stronger against Biden than he was against Hillary. While Biden always comes over as a bit clumsy to me, Hillary was very good in verbally defending herself. Just from a rhetorical point of view, not necessarily content-wise. And as I said before, I expect Trump to eat Biden alive in the debates

[Vishnu.Reang]

a biden/harris ticket is stronger than clinton/kaine was in 2016 IMO.

I would say Kamala Harris is going to do more harm than good to the Biden campaign. If he wants to sweep the swing states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa.etc, then he should select someone who is a moderate and not an extreme-left candidate such as Harris. Tammy Duckworth is being talked a lot as the VP candidate nowadays, and I should say that she is much more beneficial to Biden than Harris.

[tyz]

a biden/harris ticket is stronger than clinton/kaine was in 2016 IMO.

I was bored during the Corona crisis so I finally watched Michael Moore's 11/09 Fahrenheit documentary. I did expect a pure piece of Trump bashing. To be honest, for the most part it is. But the Democrats didn't get off scot-free either. Especially the ridiculous nomination of Hillary Clinton as presidential candidate. But also the Obama affair in Flint (Michigan) was really intense, not to be expected from a "Peace Noble Prize Winner". So it's no wonder Trump won Michigan. If that's the way it goes in other states as well, then the race is still open because the Democrats also have a lot of skeletons in the closet. And Biden was like Clinton part of the Obama administration. A lot of people have certainly not forgotten that.

[Emitdama]

I speculate that this might be a political move by the people behind the Trump administration. They will make a deal and make her talk about the top Democrats who might have used Jeffrey Epstein's services hehehe.

Ghislaine is also a supporter of Hillary and Democrats where she has made a donation.

This might be the scandal of the year and destroy Biden's campaign.

They can create as much scandal as they can try, Trump could pay that women (epsteins partner) off and just make her sing like a bird about all the democrats, tell everyone that Bill Clinton raped hundreds of under 10 year old kids, boy and girl. At this point I doubt it really matters.

First of all Trump and Melanie has a picture with Epstein and that woman, so that means if anything actually used his "services" it was Trump for sure and also Republicans lost the right to talk about ethics the moment they picked Trump, a guy who brags about just grabbing woman's nether parts and a guy who was with a pornstar while his wife was giving birth and god knows how many other stuff he has done that was super unethical. At this point I would rather see OJ Simpson as president than Trump and that is saying something.

[figmentofmyass]

a biden/harris ticket is stronger than clinton/kaine was in 2016 IMO.

I would say Kamala Harris is going to do more harm than good to the Biden campaign. If he wants to sweep the swing states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa.etc, then he should select someone who is a moderate and not an extreme-left candidate such as Harris. Tammy Duckworth is being talked a lot as the VP candidate nowadays, and I should say that she is much more beneficial to Biden than Harris.

it's a fine line. the dems need to energize progressive and black voters, especially in this coronavirus context where poor turnouts will only help republicans. that's not easy to do considering biden was the most right-leaning of all democratic candidates. i may be wrong about this, but my belief is that biden's VP pick is much more important to democrats than potential swing voters and 2016 non-voters, who are focused on trump vs biden.

this is what i'm talking about re republican-leaning moderates, senior citizens, independents, etc: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/us/politics/biden-2020-third-party.html

They are among an emerging group of voters who disliked both major-party presidential nominees in 2016, but who are now so disillusioned with President Trump — and sufficiently comfortable with Mr. Biden — that they are increasingly willing to support the Democrat.

It’s a dynamic that could have significant implications in several of the most competitive battleground states, like Arizona and Wisconsin, where the third-party vote in 2016 was greater than the margin of difference between Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton. Recent polling also shows that Mr. Biden has an overwhelming advantage over Mr. Trump among voters who have unfavorable views of both candidates — a cohort that ultimately broke in Mr. Trump’s favor in 2016, exit polls showed.

.....

But in a year when swing voters are scarce, some of the voters who effectively stayed on the sidelines in 2016 are showing signs of political movement now — and there is evidence that Mr. Biden stands to benefit.

There appears to be far less interest in third-party candidates compared with the same point in 2016, pollsters say.

“Barring some unforeseen circumstance, there’s just not a lot of appetite for third party,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “This is two-person for nearly all American voters.”

His polling from late June found that among voters who have unfavorable views of both candidates, Mr. Biden leads the president 55 percent to 21 percent. In 2016, Mr. Trump won the voters who disliked both candidates, according to exit polls.

And according to a recent poll of registered voters in six major battleground states by The New York Times and Siena College, people who say they did not vote in 2016 overwhelmingly favor Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump, 56 percent to 25 percent.

biden appears to have a strong edge among third party and swing voters, whereas trump had that advantage in 2016.

the big question mark for me is voter turnout and specifically the fate of mail-in voting. trump knows a big turnout will basically guarantee a biden victory, hence his filing of various lawsuits attempting to stop mail-in voting before november: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/19/trump-interview-mail-voting-329307

“My biggest risk is that we don’t win lawsuits,” Trump said. “We have many lawsuits going all over. And if we don’t win those lawsuits, I think — I think it puts the election at risk.”

[jostorres]

Kamala Harris is not an extreme left candidate, she is surely left of Biden that is for sure, but that is mainly because Biden is a centrist and not a leftist, Kamala Harris is definitely leftist as well, however when you say extreme left you either mean "regular left" in all of other world and mean Bernie Sanders who is a bit extreme leftist in USA, not in other nations, or you mean someone who is not even in USA and just purely high level communist.

So, I would say the level would go : Biden to Kamala to Bernie to Mao for example, that is how the projection would go. Biden and Harris ticket would really not be great, I would support Biden/Warren for example. Warren is not as leftist as neither Kamala nor Bernie, however Warren is still a "bit" leftist compared to Biden, at least she cares about education being cheaper and providing more to kids, which shouldn't really be a trouble, but for some reason in USA it actually is a problem and weirdly enough that "tiny bit" of leftist could really be good for USA.

[Lucasgabd]

trump will win its not about poitics. I made a killing last year on trump. Its really simple electoral college is made for trump and states that trump needs to win he will because not enough demcratc will come out and vote in those states and trump supports will always comes out. They dont support republcains they support trump

Once again, you guys are assuming that what happened in 2016 would repeat in 2020. That is not going to happen, and we saw that during the 2018 senate elections. Even states which were once considered as Republican strongholds, such as Arizona ended up electing Democrat senators. The reading on the wall is loud and clear. Trump was relatively unknown in 2016, and it worked to his advantage. But now people have realized that he is as bad as anyone out there.

I reckon that there might be many patriotic Americans who are not political but would vote for Trump because they dislike the fringe extreme leftists who riot and tear down historical statues. Do not underestimate how many those type of voters are.

Also, Trump has a strong voter base that would never leave him.

it's always hard to look at mass media to take conclusions but I'd avoid using absolutes (always/never) when itcomes to politcs

anything can happen.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-trumps-eroding-125310323.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/06/04/more-signs-emerge-that-trumps-base-is-eroding/

cambride analytica is not as strong as it one was.
things are always changing

[Captain Corporate]

 Its weird to think that people who "dislike people who riot and bring down racist and slave owner statues down will go out to vote" but people who are "protesting and bringing down statues of people who used to fight for right to own other human as property wouldn't go out". I mean one party is already out, there is covid, there is police killing people (already 22 people died by police since George Floyd died, so it continues) and even though they are brave enough to bring down their enemies statues, you think that those people won't go out to vote, but people who are too scared to face them and go out to stop those rioters and just chill at home watching fox news, would go out in bigger numbers?

 I know republicans love to make their own reality, but thats just missing simple logic, you gotta realize how much you are wrong when you are actually saying the words when you are THIS wrong.

[STT]

Its quite ironic that the people who riot who risk their lives in some cases would not also be voters.   People have died in order to gain the ability to vote, I remember a story recently of someone who walked over 20 miles to be allowed to vote.    Why people cant be allowed to vote via registered post and address setup I dont think it quite right, I've worked till 9pm on voting day and missed my chance just because I was fall down tired and the choice was too expensive to me.

facilitated by the return of many industries from China

We tried this in the 1930's and like many things in capitalism that are ironic it doesn't result in prosperity.   Reducing the sources of products especially resources imported to a business to resale after further work means the costs rise to that business and it becomes noncompetitive.    If China floods the market with tons of good quality steel at 1 cent a ton then its a gift, take it and use it to manufacture.   I understand their tactics is to force out competition but its more destructive not to allow free trade so I'd focus of regulation of safety and quality standards as the quality of some China products is diabolical.   Just a plain tax and nothing gained in that restriction is not a benefit but QC, fines, confiscation even could be the better route.
   Trump doesnt have especially good policy that I can see, he got through some red tape in a few cases but overall he hasnt reformed the system to fail people less.   Will people vote differently knowing that I'm not sure, I think its their wallet weight on the day of voting pretty much because thats quite a simple feedback applying to everyone.

I should post this before I lose the link, literally the data captured 4 years ago showing the underdog situation at that time and how unlikely the later win was seemingly:

[bbc.reporter]

I speculate that this might be a political move by the people behind the Trump administration. They will make a deal and make her talk about the top Democrats who might have used Jeffrey Epstein's services hehehe.

Ghislaine is also a supporter of Hillary and Democrats where she has made a donation.

This might be the scandal of the year and destroy Biden's campaign.

They can create as much scandal as they can try, Trump could pay that women (epsteins partner) off and just make her sing like a bird about all the democrats, tell everyone that Bill Clinton raped hundreds of under 10 year old kids, boy and girl. At this point I doubt it really matters.

First of all Trump and Melanie has a picture with Epstein and that woman, so that means if anything actually used his "services" it was Trump for sure and also Republicans lost the right to talk about ethics the moment they picked Trump, a guy who brags about just grabbing woman's nether parts and a guy who was with a pornstar while his wife was giving birth and god knows how many other stuff he has done that was super unethical. At this point I would rather see OJ Simpson as president than Trump and that is saying something.

I speculate everyone who was a rich pedophile used his services, however, who will use Ghislaine as a witness and who will have a deal with her? The people behind Trump, I reckon.

Also, I predict Biden might choose Susan Rice as his vice president.

@STT. Similar to 2020 hehehe.

[virasog]

Sometimes I feel that whoever loses this election 2020, will blame coronavirus for this. They will claim that they were not being able to involve with their workers and were not able to perform pre-elections campaigns properly. Covid-19 could be an easy excuse for losing the USA elections for both the parties.

[figmentofmyass]

a house democrat is warning that the same poll skewing that happened in the 2016 is happening again. she thinks trump voters are being severely undercounted:

“He told me that they fundamentally undercounted the Trump vote; that the Trump voter is not a voter in every single election, that they come out for Trump, so they’re hard to count,” Slotkin said of Al Quinlan of GQR, a large Washington-based polling firm.

Surveys often count people they determine are “likely voters,” but Slotkin learned that a person who tells a pollster that they don’t have plans to vote but may ultimately do so “were fundamentally undercounted.”

“I believe that same thing is happening right now,” Slotkin said.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/506816-house-democrat-warns-about-inaccurate-polls-trump-voters-fundamentally

that's an interesting way to frame things. it does indeed seem difficult to pin down "the trump voter". they say in 2016 that it was a "silent majority" that voted him in, and you can't capture these people in surveys or reliably predict whether they'll come out to the polls or not. it's all just fundamentally unpredictable.

in those terms, backing trump at 2.76 is a good bet IMO. considering how much time is left before the election and the possible narratives that could develop over that time, i'm beginning to lose hope we'll see 3.00 or higher.

Also, I predict Biden might choose Susan Rice as his vice president.

kamala is still the most likely IMO, then susan rice, then tammy duckworth. i don't see any other front runners emerging in the next 3 weeks. biden vowed to make his pick by august 1st.

[bbc.reporter]

@figmentofmyass. I was only speculating that Biden's administration might be pestered regularly by the Russiagate scandal. He will need Susan Rice's knowledge on the issue to maneuver and to shutdown hehehehe.

[tyKiwanuka]

in those terms, backing trump at 2.76 is a good bet IMO. considering how much time is left before the election and the possible narratives that could develop over that time, i'm beginning to lose hope we'll see 3.00 or higher.

When following the news this week, it was the first time that I thought: Ok, there is no way in this world that this guy gets re-elected

But then again, with Trump seemingly digging himself a deeper hole every day, his odds are still only 2.76, which is very telling imo. Just imagine the US somehow gets back to a situation like there is in most parts of Europe right now; the odds will go down like crazy. 
But I am hesitant to jump in as long as the situation is still looking to get worse. ICU beds in CA, TX, FL are filling up and with Italy-like footage and pics being shown, I am not sure, if 2.76 is really the top.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Isn't it getting a bit late for Biden to announce his VP candidate? I am not denying the fact that Hillary selected Tim Kaine only by mid-July.. but Biden may get an early spike, if he pick his VP candidate within the next 1-2 weeks. Else that advantage may go to Trump, as in his case the VP pick is already known. Anyway, I expect the announcement to come by the end of next week.

[yazher]

Sometimes I feel that whoever loses this election 2020, will blame coronavirus for this. They will claim that they were not being able to involve with their workers and were not able to perform pre-elections campaigns properly. Covid-19 could be an easy excuse for losing the USA elections for both the parties.

It could be used as a reason but more likely people will not buy this kind of cheap reasons nowadays. Only because they already know which reason why the other party loses the election. They just need to be truthful and professionals where they don't give a hard feeling in each other because in the end of the day, they need to help each other to make America great again.

[tbterryboy]

Isn't it getting a bit late for Biden to announce his VP candidate? I am not denying the fact that Hillary selected Tim Kaine only by mid-July.. but Biden may get an early spike, if he pick his VP candidate within the next 1-2 weeks. Else that advantage may go to Trump, as in his case the VP pick is already known. Anyway, I expect the announcement to come by the end of next week.

It could be a reason for Biden because he couldn't do his campaign and it really did hurt him. However Trump can't use it, not only he continued to campaign and he went to places and even risked other people's lives by making a smaller venue just so it would look crowded, but he was also the president during Covid as well, so he could have basically prevented this all along.

Even the worst kind of dictatorial third world countries realized that all you need to do is close the country for a bit and when goes out just give people tickets for not wearing a mask. Even if they are idiots who say lizard people rule the world and masks are there to make you aliens on this flat earth... or whatever BS those weird people believe lately, as long as you ticket them with money, they would have to pay just once and would learn to wear it as long as that is the rule. So, Trump can't blame covid, he has to accept the fact that even with Covid he did everything he could to win.

[figmentofmyass]

Isn't it getting a bit late for Biden to announce his VP candidate? I am not denying the fact that Hillary selected Tim Kaine only by mid-July.. but Biden may get an early spike, if he pick his VP candidate within the next 1-2 weeks. Else that advantage may go to Trump, as in his case the VP pick is already known. Anyway, I expect the announcement to come by the end of next week.

the way i see it, the announcement just needs to be ahead of the DNC. that's when it officially becomes election season and people start really paying attention. this VP pick is extremely important in terms of bringing out certain contingents of democrat-leaning voters, so understandably the biden campaign is trying to wait to maximize on polling/strategy data, to make sure they make the optimal pick. biden's self-imposed deadline for picking his VP candidate is august 1st so i reckon we'll hear something closer to that time. my money is still on kamala.

i see the stock markets dumped today---the dow is down 2% so far. trump's odds have been holding around 36%. i wonder if this could be the start of a dip to 30% or so. last time the stock market sold off (early-mid june) is when his chances cratered into the 30s.