US Presidential Election 2020

[tyKiwanuka]

Would this make Kamala Harris the automatic replacement or would they give Hillary another chance?

It could be anyone then:

If a candidate dies before the general election but after they've secured their party's nomination, it's a relatively simple fix: The deceased candidate's party picks a replacement (who may or may not be the vice presidential candidate from the ticket), and that replacement is on the ballot on Election Day. Both the Republican and the Democratic parties have rules about how their parties would fill the vacancy.

Source: https://people.howstuffworks.com/what-happens-presidential-candidate-dies.htm

Some days ago people were asking to bet on Cuomo again at Betfair, which was a bit Now he is at 1000 again (the max), but there is still some action on Harris, Hillary, M. Obama, Pence and Mark Cuban

[Vishnu.Reang]

No thank you hehehe. I was only speculating on what would the Democrats do if Biden suddenly lost his memory in the middle of his campaign. Would this make Kamala Harris the automatic replacement or would they give Hillary another chance?

With BLM being one of the top issues during this campaign, it would be suicidal for the Democrats to give preference to Hillary over Kamala. Hillary had her chances, but she wasted it. She is a failed candidate and rejected by the US electorate once. Ideally she should have taken retirement from active politics after 2016. If Biden is out of the race, then Kamala will be the presidential candidate, period.

[figmentofmyass]

Would this make Kamala Harris the automatic replacement or would they give Hillary another chance?

It could be anyone then:

If a candidate dies before the general election but after they've secured their party's nomination, it's a relatively simple fix: The deceased candidate's party picks a replacement (who may or may not be the vice presidential candidate from the ticket), and that replacement is on the ballot on Election Day. Both the Republican and the Democratic parties have rules about how their parties would fill the vacancy.

Source: https://people.howstuffworks.com/what-happens-presidential-candidate-dies.htm

it could technically be anybody, but hillary has zero chance for the same reason she didn't even run in 2020. her political prospects are dead.

like i said earlier, kamala is being groomed for the 2024 candidacy IMO. and the longer she stays in the spotlight---in the unlikely event biden is forced to step down prior to november---the more likely she'll be the candidate in 2020 too. that's why her odds for president jumped so much when she was picked as VP. back at 160 now......that seems a bit more reasonable. i see biden sticking this out.

[bbc.reporter]

Would this make Kamala Harris the automatic replacement or would they give Hillary another chance?

It could be anyone then:

If a candidate dies before the general election but after they've secured their party's nomination, it's a relatively simple fix: The deceased candidate's party picks a replacement (who may or may not be the vice presidential candidate from the ticket), and that replacement is on the ballot on Election Day. Both the Republican and the Democratic parties have rules about how their parties would fill the vacancy.

Source: https://people.howstuffworks.com/what-happens-presidential-candidate-dies.htm

Some days ago people were asking to bet on Cuomo again at Betfair, which was a bit Now he is at 1000 again (the max), but there is still some action on Harris, Hillary, M. Obama, Pence and Mark Cuban

A strong argument can be made for Michelle Obama, I reckon. Black, female and the former first lady of the United States, wife of the first black president. She qualifies in the eyes of the people under the current circumstances hehehe.

[notblox1]

Interesting statista data for upcoming elections comparing Trump and Biden with demographics and showing timeline.
https://twitter.com/StatistaCharts/status/1299013988949295106

I would take all this with reserve, but it can give us some indications showing that Biden has the edge at the moment.

[bbc.reporter]

@notblox1. You cannot trust that data. This election's winner will be won because of the silent majority. The democrats are also killing themselves by doing this.



This Mayor has just given Trump a win in Oregon hehehe.

[STT]

I agree on that silent majority dynamic, even in a poll people dont answer with their literal vote choice because they are often responding in a more public way.    In some cases people will lose their livelihood if one candidate wins vs the other, thats the only solid way to predict how people vote for sure.   To put it in a simple way, the empty can makes the most noise but listening to most audible noise can easily be inaccurate vs the bulk of votes and unfortunately the media has a large amount of bias on every report.

Pence makes some sense as a wild card vote, he is in the chain of command and I dont see they have any other Republican winner from out of Trump and Pence.    Democrat I see no mention of Bernie, a wild bet sure but he had formal backing at the recent convention so I'd guess that if somehow Biden falls ill in this short period.   Seems the candidates themselves are being quite careful to avoid the obvious risk and if ill that could be enough to lose votes harsh as that sounds.

[jademaxsuy]

I agree on that silent majority dynamic, even in a poll people dont answer with their literal vote choice because they are often responding in a more public way.    In some cases people will lose their livelihood if one candidate wins vs the other, thats the only solid way to predict how people vote for sure.   To put it in a simple way, the empty can makes the most noise but listening to most audible noise can easily be inaccurate vs the bulk of votes and unfortunately the media has a large amount of bias on every report.

Pence makes some sense as a wild card vote, he is in the chain of command and I dont see they have any other Republican winner from out of Trump and Pence.    Democrat I see no mention of Bernie, a wild bet sure but he had formal backing at the recent convention so I'd guess that if somehow Biden falls ill in this short period.   Seems the candidates themselves are being quite careful to avoid the obvious risk and if ill that could be enough to lose votes harsh as that sounds.

Yeah media were getting paid too to broadcast bias report just like what happening here in our olace during the last election. Clearly that people choice goes to a certain candidate but the media broadcast mostly their favorite candidate to which it said to be the owner of the network was relative to the candidate they wishes to win. However we know that candidte they like is worthless no brainer candidate. A very corrupt politician that is why tv network like him to wn because they can take advantage to it.

Media on bias reporting because of getting paid is one of the reaso that could change the peoples decision to vote. Meida could really influence the voters to vote.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Interesting statista data for upcoming elections comparing Trump and Biden with demographics and showing timeline.
https://twitter.com/StatistaCharts/status/1299013988949295106

I would take all this with reserve, but it can give us some indications showing that Biden has the edge at the moment.

In the end, it is turnout, which is going to matter. Back in 2016, Hillary had a clear advantage over Trump on the election day. But not all of the Democrat voters turned up to vote. The same can happen this time as well. Opinion polls have found that more than half of those who intend to vote for Biden are going to prefer postal voting. It is not clear how many of them will be able to do that.

[figmentofmyass]

Interesting statista data for upcoming elections comparing Trump and Biden with demographics and showing timeline.
https://twitter.com/StatistaCharts/status/1299013988949295106

I would take all this with reserve, but it can give us some indications showing that Biden has the edge at the moment.

In the end, it is turnout, which is going to matter. Back in 2016, Hillary had a clear advantage over Trump on the election day. But not all of the Democrat voters turned up to vote. The same can happen this time as well. Opinion polls have found that more than half of those who intend to vote for Biden are going to prefer postal voting. It is not clear how many of them will be able to do that.

whatever everyone thinks is gonna happen, probably won't. think about it. most americans expected hillary to win in 2016. most also expected republicans to hold the house in 2018. they were totally wrong on both counts.

now look at what is happening. no one at all is expecting a blowout biden victory like they did with hillary in 2016. in fact, everyone seems to be preparing for a trump victory. they think the polls are wrong and that the silent trump vote will be the determining factor. https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/30/politics/trump-polling-analysis/index.html

The result of the 2016 outcome for this cycle is that the general public doesn't buy the polling showing Biden clearly ahead. They think Trump is going to win.

A Pew Research Center poll published earlier this month demonstrates what's going on quite well. The poll had Biden up by 8 points over Trump, very similar to the average and the Ipsos poll discussed earlier.

Yet, the same poll found that Americans believed by a 51% to 46% margin that Trump would defeat Biden in the election. (Among voters, it was a tighter 50% to 48% spread in favor of Trump.)

The poll indicates that voters either believe the race will shift back to Trump or that the polling is wrong.

Interestingly, the poll was self administered via the internet without live interviewers, so it's not like the voters who said they were voting for Biden had reason to give what they might perceive as the more socially desirable answer (i.e. not voting for Trump).

Despite this, some voters think the polling is off.

Another question getting at the idea of potentially hidden Trump voters shows something similar to the Pew poll. By a 5-point margin, voters in an August Fox News poll said they thought more of their neighbors were voting for Trump over Biden. Biden was ahead in the horserace by 7 points in the poll.

betting odds are showing the same thing. biden and trump are basically neck and neck in the odds now. i expected a trump recovery but not so quickly! https://odds.watch/trump-2020

anyway, this kind of atmosphere bolsters biden's chances in my mind. another trump victory just like 2016? that sounds a little too predictable.

[bbc.reporter]

@figmentofmyass. I also expected this, however, similar to you, not this quick also hehehe. It might also continue once the campaign debates begin and Biden is shown to be a senile old man.

@Vishnu.Reang. I speculate many democrats will turn up and might vote Trump. The people only want everything to go back to normal as quickly as possible, however, the Democrats reckon that the chaos under the Trump administration will be favorable to them.

In any case, vote Trump now if you want to get it with more valuable odd.

[STT]

Hillary had a clear advantage over Trump on the election day. But not all of the Democrat voters turned up to vote.

As I understand it Hilary didn't just have the advantage, she got the most votes.   However it was the distribution which counted and Trump could be said to have greater diversity and won more of the electoral college to gain the win.   Nothing changed on that system till now, it can just repeat I guess but did Trump really return the faith in votes paids and do what he said.   I think he did the opposite a couple times, does anyone care really maybe its just a covid issue that decides this really.
   I read earlier a poll had shifted to reflect majority odds for Trump, something to do with Biden refusing to a debate.   I'd be surprised if he didnt debate even once, seems like that would favour the challenger most even if Biden is known.   

[Juggy777]

@figmentofmyass. I also expected this, however, similar to you, not this quick also hehehe. It might also continue once the campaign debates begin and Biden is shown to be a senile old man.

@Vishnu.Reang. I speculate many democrats will turn up and might vote Trump. The people only want everything to go back to normal as quickly as possible, however, the Democrats reckon that the chaos under the Trump administration will be favorable to them.

In any case, vote Trump now if you want to get it with more valuable odd.

@bbc.reported Biden is just not a old man he’s also our regular sleepy joe, who’s staying silent and surging ahead in the polls, but once he speaks I’m sure that he’ll make similar mistakes like this one : where he claimed that black colour people, ain’t black if they vote for Trump. Also I don’t expect Democrats to vote for Trump because things are way different now, and the US economy is faltering and Trump won’t be able to revive it in time before the elections.

Sources:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=US2T6D8NZAU

https://www.eacourier.com/opinion/joe-biden-says-you-aint-black-if-you-vote-for-trump/article_6c9b6602-9f63-11ea-9e57-57b4402a86cd.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/virus-rages-us-economy-struggles-sustain-recovery-n1238693

[Vishnu.Reang]

betting odds are showing the same thing. biden and trump are basically neck and neck in the odds now. i expected a trump recovery but not so quickly! https://odds.watch/trump-2020

anyway, this kind of atmosphere bolsters biden's chances in my mind. another trump victory just like 2016? that sounds a little too predictable.

You have a point there. Back in 2016, most of the people expected Hillary to win easily. Especially the Democrat voters stayed at home and didn't bothered to vote. That is not the case now. Trump and Biden are neck to neck now... and what happened four years back is not going to repeat. Turnout is going to be high, but I am worried about the impact the pandemic can have.

[STT]

I thought Hilary could lose it as soon as she accepted the win before voting day or least this was the strong impression, anticipating that Trump had made so many mistakes it would be impossible for him to win and he did get the minority of votes yep but won by a broader range of states which is deceptively what matters.

Trump is definitely trailing,

There is no definite, its an irregular calculation that comes up with who wins and its not clear he lost his core support which somehow tipped the scales last time.   He could be trailing on votes and yet takes it because its not purely about plain numbers, seems to be a fault in the polls that they are counting too simply.   Perhaps we should only pay attention to 1 poll in 1 particular state, thats the extent of their accuracy and then we have to check 50 other polls and  the picture is built up; its not a 60 second headline type of answer.

[bbc.reporter]

betting odds are showing the same thing. biden and trump are basically neck and neck in the odds now. i expected a trump recovery but not so quickly! https://odds.watch/trump-2020

anyway, this kind of atmosphere bolsters biden's chances in my mind. another trump victory just like 2016? that sounds a little too predictable.

You have a point there. Back in 2016, most of the people expected Hillary to win easily. Especially the Democrat voters stayed at home and didn't bothered to vote. That is not the case now. Trump and Biden are neck to neck now... and what happened four years back is not going to repeat. Turnout is going to be high, but I am worried about the impact the pandemic can have.

The pandemic had a negative impact on Trump, however, the riots will have a more negative impact on the Democrats. An example of this is the Portland mayor. He rejected Trump's sending of the national guard to help maintain peace and order, now the city is open for rioters and criminals. How would ordinary citizens who only want everything to be back to normal react?

They will speak through the ballot, they will vote Trump.

[swogerino]

I know how serious we should be when talking about US presidential elections but I don’t know if anyone else have observed the other side of the medal and it looks really funny.A friend of mine told me when we were joking around “Is USA choosing the oldest men alive for president as both candidates are quite of a mature age and compared to EU leaders they surely are older”

I think whoever wins they sure are some old man beside being president of USA.

[Vishnu.Reang]

The pandemic had a negative impact on Trump, however, the riots will have a more negative impact on the Democrats. An example of this is the Portland mayor. He rejected Trump's sending of the national guard to help maintain peace and order, now the city is open for rioters and criminals. How would ordinary citizens who only want everything to be back to normal react?

They will speak through the ballot, they will vote Trump.

These issues will have no impact on the partisan voters. For example, the liberals and the African Americans will vote for Biden, no matter what happens in Portland or in any other city. Similarly, evangelicals will vote for Trump ignoring all the other issues. The independent voters can get swayed by the rioting and handling of COVID, but they comprise less than 10% of the electorate. Need to examine the recent polling, to confirm whether they are shifting away from Biden/Kamala.

[bbc.reporter]

@Vishnu.Reang. Agreed, however, I speculate that because of some Democrat politicians who support defunding the police causing chaos and because of their support of the riots, some democrats might change their vote. However, yes, I might be wrong, only a landslide victory for Trump would prove that I am correct hehehe.

In any case, odds on Trump are trending in his favor. What does this say?

[bryant.coleman]

@Vishnu.Reang. Agreed, however, I speculate that because of some Democrat politicians who support defunding the police causing chaos and because of their support of the riots, some democrats might change their vote. However, yes, I might be wrong, only a landslide victory for Trump would prove that I am correct hehehe.

In any case, odds on Trump are trending in his favor. What does this say?

Biden is still leading in almost all the swing states, as per the opinion polls. The ground reports also confirm this. The only thing that can make the difference now is the turnout. And this is where I believe that Trump has the advantage. Trump supporters are much more likely to get out to vote, when compared to Biden supporters. But I don't know whether this difference is enough to hand him a win in November. None of the opinion polls can accurately measure this factor.