US Presidential Election 2020

[yazher]

The USA has received its one of the worst news of all time where they record A Collapse That Wiped Out 5 Years of Growth, With No-Bounce in Sight. Is this some sign that the current administration cannot handle things like the pandemic that result in this kind of problem? I wonder how it will affect the record of their current president for the upcoming election. People of the United States should think wisely about who they will gonna vote for the next election because the current administration seems incapable of handling such calamity.

You can read full article here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/business/economy/q2-gdp-coronavirus-economy.html

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[johhnyUA]

Do I need to remind you about the 2018 United States Senate elections? The GOP lost a large number of states, because the suburban voters deserted them. And a large number of these voters were either middle-aged, or elderly. On top of that, the COVID 19 pandemic has disproportionately affected voters from these groups. I guess that will make them even more anti-GOP. But I would say one thing. Not everyone among the elderly are pro-GOP and not all of those youth are pro-Democrat.

Most of suburban voters is more conservative people than those who living into towns. Most of riots - in cities like Portland or New York. So this voters will be more likely for Trump. But from another point of view, Biden is also not a zoomer candidate, he just now trying to ride a wave of anti police and anti elite riots.

That's mu view, because is +/- the same in all countries: countryside and suburban areas more conservative, cities more affected by new trends (sorry, i can't say "more progressive" ) 

[babo]

The USA has received its one of the worst news of all time where they record A Collapse That Wiped Out 5 Years of Growth, With No-Bounce in Sight. Is this some sign that the current administration cannot handle things like the pandemic that result in this kind of problem? I wonder how it will affect the record of their current president for the upcoming election. People of the United States should think wisely about who they will gonna vote for the next election because the current administration seems incapable of handling such calamity.

You can read full article here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/business/economy/q2-gdp-coronavirus-economy.html

In my humble opinion is that the trump's hopes of being re-elected are very low, both for the crisis and for the covid problem that has not been able to manage both economically and logistically.
It makes me laugh that you bet on the re-election of the presidents, you bet on everything..

[RealMalatesta]

Well, I feel like there are two things about Trump not liking the vote in by mail that causes him to try to change that. First of all, he is a dude that believes his close friends and whatever fox says, and it is a cycle as well, dude has a thought and says "mail voting is bad" or whatever and fox takes it and makes it even more huge, finds details of why it is bad and why it should be banned and all that, he watches them and eventually dude believes it even more, so he is an idiot that will take whatever you say that is good for him and run with it.

Secondly, lets be honest, people who vote by mail are more democrats than republicans, republicans see voting like a civil duty and go out and do that and be proud about it, whereas democrats could email their vote in if they can.

[johhnyUA]

Well, I feel like there are two things about Trump not liking the vote in by mail that causes him to try to change that. First of all, he is a dude that believes his close friends and whatever fox says, and it is a cycle as well, dude has a thought and says "mail voting is bad" or whatever and fox takes it and makes it even more huge, finds details of why it is bad and why it should be banned and all that, he watches them and eventually dude believes it even more, so he is an idiot that will take whatever you say that is good for him and run with it.

If to remember what was on Trump election rally in Oklahoma, when ,in fact, information attack too place (when young people reserved places at stadium just to troll Trump) the fact that Trump don't want to get the same on voting is normal. There too big chances that something will go wrong.

I have a strong feeling that Trump will win, because the situation is more for Trump (the same as in trading market - The market is irrational) from all point of view. The above example (with registration) only confirms that.

[Captain Corporate]

 First of all, having a president back to back is like an american tradition, removing an incumbent from his position is very very difficult in USA for some reason, presidents serve only 2 terms so you see them only 8 years, but check congress, check senate and check other positions and you could see people who have been doing the same job for over 20-30-40 years, they have been going at the same job for a very long time.

 However if you try, there is nothing you can't do but try, you may achieve it for the first time in over some decades. I am not saying Biden has a low chance, he has %50-%50 chance if you ask me, but I neither see it %60 chance like some suggest or %40 chance like some say, I just see it a coin toss chance of actually winning.

[tyKiwanuka]

i liked her at 2.7 but it's still good odds IMO.

Nope, these weren't good odds as it seems, but I didn't place a bet

Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.168954647

Harris sits at 2.32 now and the big winner is Karen Bass, whose odds have come down to around 6-ish. But betting on HER now is also a bit meh, because the value is gone. Read some article and there are some good points, why Bass makes sense; mainly because she looks to be more loyal additionally to her huge experience. Lots of lobbying going on and by now I wouldn't be surprised to see some more or less big outsider being chosen. It's not that unlikely for the VP having to step in at some point during the 4-year tenure, so this position is probably more important than ever for a lot of agendas. If Biden actually wins.....

Did some "analysis" on the 50 states, checked their odds, and will put it here, if anyone is interested. It's also good for comparison later on.

I checked, if there have been some significant changes in the odds for Electoral College, but it basically stayed the same for all states. Florida has shifted the most, was 1.66/2.20 and is now 1.57/2.45 in favour of Democrats and Trump needs Florida badly.

[verita1]

I found this tweet alarming: Louis DeJoy gave the Republican Party $ 2,000,000 and Trump rewards it by putting him in charge of the post office without his experience, the first action Louis DeJoy did was to cut the delivery service.

You could imagine that this could cause the ballots to not arrive in time for the November 3 elections.

But the Trump campaign adviser says the USA is unprepared for a vote by mail and thus supports the delay of the elections, suggests Trump. In addition to alleging that there is a lot of fraud due to this voting system.

https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1289190430974738433?s=19

[Tipstar]

For a country that has it's previous physical ballot election interfered by a foreign government, an email voting would be a disaster. What if the Russians hacked again and this time elected Putin as the President?
It would be better to let the coronavirus crisis settle which may take a couple of more years and go through elections when everything gets normal.

[perfect999]

Also I would like to point out that this any time right now? This was in April and may, which means during the peak of the corona virus where people tried to stay at home as much as they can and the last thing on their mind was to go get registered. Now, we all know that in republican states there is voter suppression and registration trashing all the time, so you need to go get new registration, normally in other nations you basically go to vote with your national ID, you do not need to register to vote, why would I need to register to anything to vote?

I am a citizen of this nation and I go and vote, in USA you have to register to vote for some weird reason, probably all due to republicans as well but not like democrats try to stop that neither. So all I can say is, I am sure if June-July-August numbers comes up one day, you will see that a ton of new people registered, they just didn't during the peak of the pandemic obviously.

[STT]

Email is about the same as writing your vote on a postcard for everyone to read.   Cant use something 40 years old and entirely prone to hijacking, the mail in is far better idea and works in a number of countries.   It requires people to setup it up with ID and being established at an address can be some impediment but that was all feasible and should have been done years ago.     I consider no mail in to be discriminatory against low income people with more then one job or anyone without reliable transport.   Its no coincidence that very often the largest sector and more reliable demographic of voters are the retired, because they have the time, stability to use the system perfectly and others dont get that vote.
   Democracy requires better but delaying the election isnt reasonable or justified even now, when Trump suggests that it makes him appear weak and on the run, more likely to lose.     Same for strong arm use of federal forces and other measures to fight an enemy that isnt there just the people.    Trump does require that enemy to appear better in contrast, its a constant search seems like.   I would adjust my estimates for Trump down with the harder line moves though people might think thats his core base, he needs a broader appeal.
   Maybe we're all missing that Trump won 2016 because Hilary was so disliked or decisive that it moved support to Trump, Biden for any faults isnt so prickly with some voters perhaps.   I dont know about that one but its possible.   Hilary was also  memorable from Clinton's term (though afaik he remains popular ) so everyone has history going on here.

[bryant.coleman]

For a country that has it's previous physical ballot election interfered by a foreign government, an email voting would be a disaster. What if the Russians hacked again and this time elected Putin as the President?
It would be better to let the coronavirus crisis settle which may take a couple of more years and go through elections when everything gets normal.

This is never going to happen. The GOP will never approve online voting (including email voting), because it may increase the turnout among the younger voters. The youth mostly favor the Democrats (due to a combination of demographic and ideological factors), while the elderly are more supportive of the GOP. Under such circumstances, it will be disastrous for the GOP to approve online voting, instead of the usual absentee voting through post. ama

[figmentofmyass]

i liked her at 2.7 but it's still good odds IMO.

Nope, these weren't good odds as it seems, but I didn't place a bet

Harris sits at 2.32 now and the big winner is Karen Bass, whose odds have come down to around 6-ish.

i was just talking about the actual chances of winning the bet---not trying to predict which way punters would sway.

my gut feeling is that most of the short list is composed of political duds (bass included) and that's not what democrat strategists are looking for. not only do they get enough of that from biden, but they are grooming the 2024 presidential candidate. even if biden wins, there's no way he's completing two terms.

[Vishnu.Reang]

i was just talking about the actual chances of winning the bet---not trying to predict which way punters would sway.

my gut feeling is that most of the short list is composed of political duds (bass included) and that's not what democrat strategists are looking for. not only do they get enough of that from biden, but they are grooming the 2024 presidential candidate. even if biden wins, there's no way he's completing two terms.

LOL... Biden is almost 78 years of age. By the time his first term ends, he will be 82. And from what I have heard, he is having all sorts of health issues haunting him even now. Trump is not that young, but he is in a much more healthier state. So it is almost certain that the Democrat VP pick will be the nominee for the 2024 POTUS elections.

[jaberwock]

The amazing and great part about Trump asking for elections to be postponed was the reaction from the conservatives, I loved it and that is why I think USA is not a dictatorship and could never be one. I am avid reddit user and always check what conservatives think there, not the trump followers or whatever, I just check conservatives which collide with a lot of trump supporters but have differences as well, just creates excuses because even if there was a cow nominated from republicans, there are many who will vote a cow over democrat candidate.

When trump said we should postpone it, even conservatives went mad, normally democrats hate trump for even breathing and I agree but when conservatives tell trump to shut up, that is when you understand it is a big trouble for him coming this election.

[tyz]

The amazing and great part about Trump asking for elections to be postponed was the reaction from the conservatives, I loved it and that is why I think USA is not a dictatorship and could never be one.

Why do you think the USA would be a dictatorship? I think you read too much propaganda. Of course the USA is a democracy with a president who certainly has more power than in other democracies, but there are mechanisms to limit the abuse of this power. This is shown by the fact that the Supreme Court has stopped some projects and laws. In addition, the Congress and the Senate are controlled by different parties, so that the president can not have any dictatorial power. Just like the plan to postpone the election. This is of course huge news for the gossip press but he can't do that without the approval of the democratic controlled senate.

[jaberwock]

Why do you think the USA would be a dictatorship? I think you read too much propaganda. Of course the USA is a democracy with a president who certainly has more power than in other democracies, but there are mechanisms to limit the abuse of this power. This is shown by the fact that the Supreme Court has stopped some projects and laws. In addition, the Congress and the Senate are controlled by different parties, so that the president can not have any dictatorial power. Just like the plan to postpone the election. This is of course huge news for the gossip press but he can't do that without the approval of the democratic controlled senate.

Well, I specifically said that "USA  is not a dictatorship" in my post... I don't know why you would think that I am saying it is when I am literally saying it is not. There are mechanisms that limits a presidents power but also there are ways those mechanisms could be overcome, have one party rule the congress, senate, presidency, the courts and supreme court, basically all the mechanisms and that party could do whatever they want and there would be no mechanism to stop it, yet in USA beuroracy is slow so that is a trick founding fathers put in there to make sure nobody makes any hasty move right even with a reaction to ruin everything and have time to sit and think about their moves.

Like I said, I do not believe that it is a dictatorship, now would Trump would want to be a dictator? Of course he would, he would LOVE to be one, but that is a big NO from USA.

[Cnut237]

Of course the USA is a democracy with a president who certainly has more power than in other democracies, but there are mechanisms to limit the abuse of this power.

This is true to an extent, one person one vote, but there are two issues shared by most democracies that do tend to make them undemocratic.
One is that the number of elected representatives is not representative of the share of the vote, in a 'winner takes the whole state' system. Proportional representation would be far more democratic - if for example you get 46% of the vote, you get 46% of the representatives.
Two is that capitalist democracies are naturally controlled by those who have money and influence. An everyday citizen has one vote. A TV channel boss has one vote. Mark Zuckerberg has one vote. But obviously these people do not have the same influence on how other people vote.
Obviously there are other issues as well, but these two for starters suggest that democracies may not be truly democratic.

[alani123]

More states are bound to enable mail-in ballots and that should be especially worrying for Trump and the republican establishment.

First of all, it means that many old people that are bound to their homes will be able to vote. But it also means that many working class people will be able to vote in their off hours.
Funnily enough US is one of the countries that doesn't make voting day a holiday and many states offer little to no protection to those working if they want to vote.
Of course this is just speculation but I think Trump has been afraid of mail in ballots for reasons other than he's willing to show. And that's probably because more working class people would vote under this condition.

[bbc.reporter]

@alani123. Mail in ballots is another method to cheat easily for the incumbent because it controls the biggest political machinery. Trump might be saying he does not like it for Democratic states to allow it hehehe.