US Presidential Election 2020

[figmentofmyass]

Look Biden is working really hard towards Texas and if he could get it, that means it is all over. Last elections there was just 3 states where 70k people could have voted for Hillary and the whole election would have changed, we are talking about 150 million people voting and 70k people switching sides changes everything.

texas is not a swing state---i'm not sure what chances biden realistically has there. while the texas republican-democrat margin in the 2016 election was the smallest in decades, it was still sizable. this will be hard to overcome:

Since 1980 Texas has voted Republican in every election.

But the question is whether arbitrage is possible within the same bookmaker (which I doubt)?

Of course this is possible even within the same bookmaker Pre-match it's a bit harder to achieve, because the markets move slow, but in-play you can do it all the time.

Exchanges like Betfair are better suited, because you just pay a commission on your net profit.

+1

[Captain Corporate]

 The main talking point these days has been about US Presidential elections. However what people are forgetting that November 2020 will also be the month where a lot of Senate elections are taking place as well. Senate elections are a lot more important than Presidential elections actually, you know why? Because if you hold the house and if you hold the senate that means you do not need the president to be in your party at all, you can still veto whatever you want.

 Right now democrats are in a big progressive movement, it all started with the "sisterhood" of 5 minority women to be elected usually headed by AOC and right now its spreading towards everywhere, thats congress obviously but it still created this feeling of "in places we know republicans will lose like New York, we can put as progressive as we want and still not lose". This put forward Jamaal Bowman type of progressive candidates with no holding back on words to come forward and beat long time incumbent opponents in democratic party since they knew that the primary would basically be the election as well.

 Now for the senate they are going against Mitch Mcconnell who is the majority leader and if they somehow manage to win just 3 seats on the senate they are going to have the majority and they put forward Charles Booker who is an open supporter of BLM movement and the protests going around in the country. A candidate that supports green new deal, a candidate that supports universal healthcare and a candidate who is black in Kentucky which is a tough thing to be. He managed to beat ex-marine Amy McGrath who had all the support from the corporate democrats but Booker managed to still beat her. Which means he will go against Mitch in the November elections.

 I think what matters most for Democrats that they know they need to elect Biden so that they could get rid of Trump but they also realized 2 years ago in 2018 elections that unless they manage to get the majority in the senate, they will not be able to get anything done, senate will stop all works and try to undermine everything Biden would do. So not only they need  to elect Biden but they also need to take that majority from senate, remove Mitch from Kentucky senate and rule the three big branch all together. If they have the congress (which they do) and win the senate and win the presidency, that means democrats will be able to do whatever they want.

[Vishnu.Reang]

^^^ Even now, the GOP is having only a wafer thin majority in the Senate. Democrats are having a majority in House and they are likely to maintain that for the next few years. Now let's talk about this years Senate elections. As per the latest opinion polls, Democrats are ahead in crucial states such as Arizona, North Carolina and Iowa. Even if they fall short of majority by one or two seats, they can make that up by getting help from RINOs such as Lisa Murkowski. So by all probability, in three months time there will be a Democrat president, with Democrat majority in Senate and the House.

[bbc.reporter]

Trump mentioned something strange and this might be an indecipherable statement about the military industrial complex during his speech in Tulsa. Is he warning everyone similar to Dwight Eisenhower or is Trump a friend of them?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNecDwMY_0w

[Vishnu.Reang]

It is getting even more difficult for Trump nowadays. Questions are being raised about the relationship between Putin and Trump, after it was proved that Russia paid bounty to the Taliban, in return for the assassination of American troops. Also, there are new revelations which claim that he holds a lot of contempt to female leaders such as Angela Merkel. It is going to get really dirty.. during the next few months. 

[figmentofmyass]

this is pretty damaging stuff:

From pandering to Putin to abusing allies and ignoring his own advisers, Trump's phone calls alarm US officials

In hundreds of highly classified phone calls with foreign heads of state, President Donald Trump was so consistently unprepared for discussion of serious issues, so often outplayed in his conversations with powerful leaders like Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Erdogan, and so abusive to leaders of America's principal allies, that the calls helped convince some senior US officials -- including his former secretaries of state and defense, two national security advisers and his longest-serving chief of staff -- that the President himself posed a danger to the national security of the United States, according to White House and intelligence officials intimately familiar with the contents of the conversations.

One person familiar with almost all the conversations with the leaders of Russia, Turkey, Canada, Australia and western Europe described the calls cumulatively as 'abominations' so grievous to US national security interests that if members of Congress heard from witnesses to the actual conversations or read the texts and contemporaneous notes, even many senior Republican members would no longer be able to retain confidence in the President.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/29/politics/trump-phone-calls-national-security-concerns/index.html

trump is still get slaughtered in the media, biden is exuding confidence, the coronavirus is worsening with economic fears looming.

betfair has trump at 34% now. can we get a couple more weeks of dumpster fire---maybe get to 30% or below? where is the bottom?

[johhnyUA]

betfair has trump at 34% now. can we get a couple more weeks of dumpster fire---maybe get to 30% or below? where is the bottom?

Lol. The lowest rating since last elections. https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

Now it's getting really interesting. I thought this is the bottom (+\- few percents). There can't be under 30 %, i can't believe in something like that.

[STT]

When it starts to veer into exaggeration then I go back to presuming Trump just lucks his way to a win, the returning candidate has the advantage.   The only real certain guidance is in the numbers, as in business revenue and job prospects and anything like that, the words and opinions are secondary evidence to speculate on a win or a loss.   Too many people speak the story they wish was true or will be true so long as they repeat it they hope to make it so but theres equally a sentiment to ignore bias and news which favours a negative narrative against the president.  
   Does Biden benefit from being a vice president returning to the race, really doesn't feel much like that.   I'm trying to think of the last VP who returned to win the top job for himself, all I can think of is the guy who lost to Bush, Gore and it was very close so maybe theres something in that.   Biden needs some killer speech to really make ground in voter numbers.

[figmentofmyass]

betfair has trump at 34% now. can we get a couple more weeks of dumpster fire---maybe get to 30% or below? where is the bottom?

Lol. The lowest rating since last elections. https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

Now it's getting really interesting. I thought this is the bottom (+\- few percents). There can't be under 30 %, i can't believe in something like that.

it's possible, but pretty extreme yes. the bottom in december 2018/january 2019 was 29%. it's hard to imagine much lower than that.

anything between 3.33-4 would be a really juicy place to get a bet in backing trump. i'm checking the odds a couple times a day now, since i don't think the opportunity will last long. betfair had him down to 33% a couple days ago but he has since bounced to 35%.

ignoring trump, biden's chances have slightly fallen, probably because of the improving odds on kamala harris. it's being widely speculated now that she will be his VP running mate. since a brokered DNC is not really possible anymore, that would make her pretty much the only possible democratic nominee besides biden---if he succumbs to medical problems or something.

[Degens]

this is pretty damaging stuff:

From pandering to Putin to abusing allies and ignoring his own advisers, Trump's phone calls alarm US officials

In hundreds of highly classified phone calls with foreign heads of state, President Donald Trump was so consistently unprepared for discussion of serious issues, so often outplayed in his conversations with powerful leaders like Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Erdogan, and so abusive to leaders of America's principal allies, that the calls helped convince some senior US officials -- including his former secretaries of state and defense, two national security advisers and his longest-serving chief of staff -- that the President himself posed a danger to the national security of the United States, according to White House and intelligence officials intimately familiar with the contents of the conversations.

One person familiar with almost all the conversations with the leaders of Russia, Turkey, Canada, Australia and western Europe described the calls cumulatively as 'abominations' so grievous to US national security interests that if members of Congress heard from witnesses to the actual conversations or read the texts and contemporaneous notes, even many senior Republican members would no longer be able to retain confidence in the President.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/29/politics/trump-phone-calls-national-security-concerns/index.html

trump is still get slaughtered in the media, biden is exuding confidence, the coronavirus is worsening with economic fears looming.

betfair has trump at 34% now. can we get a couple more weeks of dumpster fire---maybe get to 30% or below? where is the bottom?

Degens Exchange has Trump at 44% and Biden at 60% - https://degens.com/?sport=Politics

[tyKiwanuka]

Degens Exchange has Trump at 44% and Biden at 60% - https://degens.com/?sport=Politics

Technically you don't have Biden at 60%, but the field, which makes the 1.667 (sorry, I always calculate in decimal odds ) good, since Betfair has 1.71 for Biden and you have lower commission from all I know. The Field then covers any medical issues for Biden - but also for Trump, because he can get sick as well, so if I was to bet against Trump, I would probably prefer your odds.

But those odds for Trump are shitty with 2.23 compared to Betfairs 2.84 right now, even with commission advantage.

[Vishnu.Reang]

I think that Trump has hit the rock bottom and he will slowly recover in the next 2-3 months. Today I noticed a piece of news, which is very encouraging for Trump:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/jobs-report-june-2020.html

Nonfarm payrolls soared by 4.8 million in June and the unemployment rate fell to 11.1% as the U.S. continued its reopening from the coronavirus pandemic, the Labor Department said Thursday.

This is just tectonic/monumental level news for Trump. So many jobs created in such a short period of time, would be a huge boost for him.

[johhnyUA]

ignoring trump, biden's chances have slightly fallen, probably because of the improving odds on kamala harris. it's being widely speculated now that she will be his VP running mate. since a brokered DNC is not really possible anymore, that would make her pretty much the only possible democratic nominee besides biden---if he succumbs to medical problems or something.

If biden go out from electoral race, will this mean that all bids on him will be considered as lost, eh? I checked odds on him, and it doesn't looks like something changed too much - https://bookies.com/news/presidential-election-odds-daily-tracker (this is just one example)

[virasog]

betfair has trump at 34% now. can we get a couple more weeks of dumpster fire---maybe get to 30% or below? where is the bottom?

Lol. The lowest rating since last elections. https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

Now it's getting really interesting. I thought this is the bottom (+\- few percents). There can't be under 30 %, i can't believe in something like that.

The average job approval ratings for the USA presidents is 53 that is from the year 1938 to 2020. The approval rating under 30 does not look possible. The minimum i see is by George Bush at 37. Will trump rating will fall below this ?

[figmentofmyass]

I think that Trump has hit the rock bottom and he will slowly recover in the next 2-3 months. Today I noticed a piece of news, which is very encouraging for Trump:

Nonfarm payrolls soared by 4.8 million in June and the unemployment rate fell to 11.1% as the U.S. continued its reopening from the coronavirus pandemic, the Labor Department said Thursday.

This is just tectonic/monumental level news for Trump. So many jobs created in such a short period of time, would be a huge boost for him.

perspective is everything:



the numbers got a nice bump from businesses reopening across the country, but i don't see why that would sustain month after month. all the optimism about unemployment is gonna disappear with a single bad month's data, as everyone realizes jobs can't be created nearly as fast as they were lost. there was also a bump in retail demand since people were cooped up in their houses for months and were eager to go out and spend money. i view that effect as temporary.

i also think the trump administration is actively pushing the bureau of labor and statistics to under report job losses. several million people have inexplicably been removed from the total labor force (significantly lowering the unemployment rate) and they are also counting millions of furloughed people as employed. the only explanation for that is political.

trump may have hit bottom but IMO this reprieve will be short-lived. i think his odds still have a ways to drop in the coming weeks.

If biden go out from electoral race, will this mean that all bids on him will be considered as lost, eh? I checked odds on him, and it doesn't looks like something changed too much - https://bookies.com/news/presidential-election-odds-daily-tracker (this is just one example)

no big change. trump's odds had just declined 1% or so and biden's hadn't budged, so i was trying to figure out why.

[johhnyUA]

betfair has trump at 34% now. can we get a couple more weeks of dumpster fire---maybe get to 30% or below? where is the bottom?

Lol. The lowest rating since last elections. https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

Now it's getting really interesting. I thought this is the bottom (+\- few percents). There can't be under 30 %, i can't believe in something like that.

The average job approval ratings for the USA presidents is 53 that is from the year 1938 to 2020. The approval rating under 30 does not look possible. The minimum i see is by George Bush at 37. Will trump rating will fall below this ?

Lol, Trump had had approval raiting around 30 % before he started president race, in 2018 as you can see in link in my post you quoted. So this is obvious that Trump already the president with the biggest anti rating. But anyway, his rating through some people is too strong, much stronger than Bush had, so Trump is more acceptable compared to Bush.

[Degens]

Degens Exchange has Trump at 44% and Biden at 60% - https://degens.com/?sport=Politics

Technically you don't have Biden at 60%, but the field, which makes the 1.667 (sorry, I always calculate in decimal odds ) good, since Betfair has 1.71 for Biden and you have lower commission from all I know. The Field then covers any medical issues for Biden - but also for Trump, because he can get sick as well, so if I was to bet against Trump, I would probably prefer your odds.

But those odds for Trump are shitty with 2.23 compared to Betfairs 2.84 right now, even with commission advantage.

Good points there that I hadn't considered.

[Mauser]

Degens Exchange has Trump at 44% and Biden at 60% - https://degens.com/?sport=Politics

Technically you don't have Biden at 60%, but the field, which makes the 1.667 (sorry, I always calculate in decimal odds ) good, since Betfair has 1.71 for Biden and you have lower commission from all I know. The Field then covers any medical issues for Biden - but also for Trump, because he can get sick as well, so if I was to bet against Trump, I would probably prefer your odds.

But those odds for Trump are shitty with 2.23 compared to Betfairs 2.84 right now, even with commission advantage.

Thanks for the update. Betting on Biden seems a good bet at the moment. But I also think betting at least some money on Trump could be a good hedge for the next election. I am waiting for better odds to get a good payout. Who knows how the campaign will end, it's probably just another coin toss like with Hillary.

[tyKiwanuka]

Betting on Biden seems a good bet at the moment.

I don't think so Biden's odds have been going down all the time in the last weeks and everything went his way - I guess he can't believe it himself and he didn't add a lot to that, he just had to stay healthy and show up a bit in public, do some interviews etc. I find it more likely for his odds to go up again. And if not, they won't go much lower imo, so small upside, but big downside betting on these odds right now. What should happen for Trumps odds to go even higher ? You can't do a lot worse than Trump is doing right now and there were some positive signs lately as mentioned in this thread (at least economy-wise).

But I also think betting at least some money on Trump could be a good hedge for the next election.

If you are looking for a hedge/trade I would start with Trump as per the above. But if Dr. Fauci is correct with his prognosis, I might be the one to be completely wrong; thats the (hard) fun with betting

[Captain Corporate]

 Trump losing is a bigger deal than Biden winning for the USA people which is why there is a bigger chance Biden wins this year. What worked last year was making sure that Bernie supporters try to make their voices heard, they did this because they imagined Hillary Clinton would win hands down without questions and it wasn't even close, which is why they din't voted and wanted to make DNC realize how much their vote worths. Not only it didn't worked because Biden won over Bernie this year as well, but also they lost presidency to Trump as well.

 This year everyone who hates Trump will get together and they will vote for anyone, even a trash can if they have to, in order to not pick trump for president again. Its just not even close, we are talking about a guy who knew Russia put bounty on American soldiers and still worked to get Russia accepted to G summit. Thats literally just the latest, he also ignored all of corona virus warnings and because of him a lot more people died, if it was someone sensible there would be tens of thousands of people alive. Its just not even close.

 So I would wager on Biden easily, its a clear choice and not because Biden is a good candidate, his odds of winning doesn't go up because people love him or he does something great, thats not whats going on, his chances of winning goes up because everyone hates Trump more and more and more.