US Presidential Election 2020

[tyKiwanuka]

But right now ... I don't really see how the White House would benefit from currently manipulated numbers.

It takes some weeks/months to properly pimp them You can't go from 100% to 0% in days. You gradually go lower step by step, maybe imitating the curves of countries that were successful in controlling the virus. By late October you then a have a situation, where Trump can brag about these "achievements". This won't work, if numbers stay as high as currently, but when numbers improve a bit, you can improve them more with a system you control and nobody will take notice.
If hospitals are at (over-)capacity it's hard to cover up imo, because the media will be all over it, but when a hospital reports 70% full (with downward tendency), you can easily make that 50% or 40% and nobody will even notice or be suspicious about it.

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[Darkoth89]

The opposite of that would happen in November. Although the numbers does not favor the government at the moment if the virus is gone by that time or a vaccine is developed in the US, this will give a big boost to the white house and the current president will take all the credit and votes may go in his favour.

What makes you so confident that we will have a vaccine by then? I wouldn't be so sure about that. But yeah, right now it seems like the US is fully counting on exactly that - a vaccine. Otherwise you can't explain how Trump is handling the whole crisis. I don't understand why they didn't take the Covid response of (some) European countries as an example. But that's a topic for a different thread.

It takes some weeks/months to properly pimp them You can't go from 100% to 0% in days. You gradually go lower step by step, maybe imitating the curves of countries that were successful in controlling the virus. By late October you then a have a situation, where Trump can brag about these "achievements". This won't work, if numbers stay as high as currently, but when numbers improve a bit, you can improve them more with a system you control and nobody will take notice.
If hospitals are at (over-)capacity it's hard to cover up imo, because the media will be all over it, but when a hospital reports 70% full (with downward tendency), you can easily make that 50% or 40% and nobody will even notice or be suspicious about it.

But again, how exactly should the numbers start to improve a bit? Just take a look at what's going on in Georgia for example. Or the numbers from Florida ... I know October/November is still relatively far in the future, but right now I'm just beeing pessimistic. However, if a working vaccine is approved by then and Trump can buy everything that is available worldwide ("America first" ...), he will be able to glorify himself as a saviour from the pandemic. But as I said above, I wouldn't count on that.
 

[Captain Corporate]

 I do not think that even vaccine would help them out. Plus I do not really think that people realize how serious this is neither. I just read on reddit that some families actually bring in kids with covid and kids without covid together so that kids would get it and get better so they wouldn't get sick later on when its "worse" and actually planned infection would allow them to take care of the kids better. Now we are talking about voters like this, and you are telling me trump has no chance to win? He is the king moron in the land of morons, he ALWAYS has a chance to win. Do not consider for one second that he hates being under favored in the bets and polls, he loves that, he loves being under dog so that he could fight his way up, if he had to fight down he would have lost because he doesn't know how to fight down and neither does his voters.

[STT]

Sounds like a very dangerous strategy when its not completely sure why some suffer so badly and others do not, roughly we know theres an age correlation but thats a heck of a risk over just waiting it out.   Hard to understand how people think they have no other option but to catch something thats like russian roulette.

a vaccine is developed in the US

The time line for a vaccine is that it wont be available before end of year and into 2021.   Some might receive it earlier in special cases but even those will likely be past the election date so far as I know.    Would be good to hear otherwise but Ive not heard of that and even December would be exceptional response time considering not many took this serious initially.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/world/2019/12/31/state-media-china-probes-pneumonia-outbreak-for-sars-links/1823554
The figures at the end there are nonsense most likely and relevant now that China is opaque and unreliable in its current figures also.

Trump on Epstein in 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0SuZQZGKqo

[SirLancelot]

I guess November is right there in few months and there are so many people dying as well. Just recently some television spokesperson that keeps promoting Trump (you know the ones) and keep saying that media and the medical industry is faking it and there isn't a real virus and people are not dying and the numbers are all made up because if it was true we would have seen hundreds of thousands of dead people somewhere, we wouldn't be unaware of it yet he didn't see any sick person.

Well, his son got sick and got the corona virus, he apologized to all doctors on live TV. This is what Biden is basically fighting against, this is what the war on ignorance is all about, people who vote Trump do that not because they are bad but because they are morons, you can't fight a war against moron people, so you should at least out vote them.

[bbc.reporter]

@adamistraybar. Trump might win because the people might see that he has the political will to fight the new threat. China.

Biden has dealings with China through his son Hunter Biden.

This speech from Trump's attorney general. This is very close on declaring war, I reckon.



It is a privilege to be here to speak about what may prove to be the most important issue for our nation and the world in the twenty-first century — that is, the United States’ response to the global ambitions of the Chinese Communist Party.  The CCP rules with an iron fist over one of the great ancient civilizations of the world.  It seeks to leverage the immense power, productivity, and ingenuity of the Chinese people to overthrow the rules-based international system and to make the world safe for dictatorship.  How the United States responds to this challenge will have historic implications and will determine whether the United States and its liberal democratic allies will continue to shape their own destiny or whether the CCP and its autocratic tributaries will control the future.

Several weeks ago, National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien spoke about the CCP’s ideology and global ambitions.  He declared, and I agree, that “[t]he days of American passivity and naivety regarding the People’s Republic of China are over.”

Source https://www.justice.gov/opa/speech/attorney-general-william-p-barr-delivers-remarks-china-policy-gerald-r-ford-presidential

[Darker45]

@adamistraybar. Trump might win because the people might see that he has the political will to fight the new threat. China.

I would not say this factor or particular issue will far outweigh other socio-economic issues-- domestics ones to be exact-- that a lot of Americans are probably more critical about.

As an Asian and whose country is under constant territorial threat from the bully China, this particular issue is very important for me. But I cannot tell whether or not an ordinary American finds this specific issue equally important that it may determine his/her vote.

[Vishnu.Reang]

I would not say this factor or particular issue will far outweigh other socio-economic issues-- domestics ones to be exact-- that a lot of Americans are probably more critical about.

As an Asian and whose country is under constant territorial threat from the bully China, this particular issue is very important for me. But I cannot tell whether or not an ordinary American finds this specific issue equally important that it may determine his/her vote.

I am from India, and my country had a major unprovoked territorial fight with the Chinese a few weeks back. For Asians, Chinese aggression is a big concern. Not sure whether the same will be reflected in the United States, because they don't have any direct territorial dispute with China. At least in this case, I have to say that Trump is more effective when compared to Biden.

[amishmanish]

I would not say this factor or particular issue will far outweigh other socio-economic issues-- domestics ones to be exact-- that a lot of Americans are probably more critical about.

As an Asian and whose country is under constant territorial threat from the bully China, this particular issue is very important for me. But I cannot tell whether or not an ordinary American finds this specific issue equally important that it may determine his/her vote.

I am from India, and my country had a major unprovoked territorial fight with the Chinese a few weeks back. For Asians, Chinese aggression is a big concern. Not sure whether the same will be reflected in the United States, because they don't have any direct territorial dispute with China. At least in this case, I have to say that Trump is more effective when compared to Biden.

The US made all the right noises during the Ladakh standoff which means that Trump pretty much has the Indian diaspora in his pocket for this very reason. Yet, all the issues that have been mishandled within the country seem too big to be just covered up by making it about CCP. Who could have thought that USA, the country that gave much of the modern world's medical standards and pharma research to the world, would lead the pandemic's body count. I don't know how any straight thinking, patriotic American can accept that without hanging their head in shame for such inept administration.

In terms of absolute count and even deaths, a country like India will cross the US, yet, the vast difference in population density and medical facilities just does not justify the kind of human calamity that COVID-19 turned out to become for the US. 140K dead. How is that not the most monumental failure ever for any American president?? The fact that media outlets and "independent" mouthpieces can still sway his core base to believe that Mr. Cheetos did everything right and it just happened the way it was meant to happen, will one day be counted as one of the most ridiculous tragedies of the information era.

[tyz]

Just read an interesting article. Prof. Helmut Norpoth developed a prediction model that correctly predicted the outcome of the last 25 of 27 elections. He had already predicted a probability of victory for Trump in 2016 of 67 to 88 percent. But the interesting thing is what he predicts about the upcoming election: A 91% probability for re-election of Trump.  

More in this article:
https://local12.com/news/nation-world/professors-model-predicts-trump-having-91-chance-of-winning-re-election-cincinnati

[STT]

It really is tragic to see deaths that didnt have to happen, its just a case of waiting for a vaccine and read a book for a year.   Some people have no choice but to engage risks and do so as safely as possible but the rest is just so unfortunate people wont step back, alot of this mixing and infection spreading is unrequired gatherings.    Anything outdoors I can get might not be so bad especially with distance but the Trump rally for example was unrequired close proximity so the President can directly be blamed for that poor attitude without a doubt he has the power to arrange the crowd seating however is required but chose not to.
    I was going to say its really down to the people themselves not the government bodies in charge to force people, literally they nailed doors shut in Wuhan I remember and we dont live in an authoritarian state like that but alot of policy stance is poor straight from the President, its fairly clear and he is to blame for some of these deaths.

A 91% probability for re-election of Trump.

Thats way too much, 50/50 because of this screw up is where I will look for it by default.   It would have been far more had we been in November where we were in Jan just coasting on various measures of health and prosperity.    Ultimately people dying and out of work is the bell toll for a one term presidency, its not the norm but if we see an end of office thats how it occurs in past and also this present.   Biden I just dont have any judgement on, maybe its best he just shuts up but ideally he'd have at least one ground breaking speech to get people behind him.

[MFahad]

I would not say this factor or particular issue will far outweigh other socio-economic issues-- domestics ones to be exact-- that a lot of Americans are probably more critical about.

As an Asian and whose country is under constant territorial threat from the bully China, this particular issue is very important for me. But I cannot tell whether or not an ordinary American finds this specific issue equally important that it may determine his/her vote.

I am from India, and my country had a major unprovoked territorial fight with the Chinese a few weeks back. For Asians, Chinese aggression is a big concern. Not sure whether the same will be reflected in the United States, because they don't have any direct territorial dispute with China. At least in this case, I have to say that Trump is more effective when compared to Biden.

So what was the root cause of this Chinese aggression ? I am sure united nation would have taken necessary steps to normalize the situation in the borders.  Asia is becoming a tension hub.  

[romero121]

Just read an interesting article. Prof. Helmut Norpoth developed a prediction model that correctly predicted the outcome of the last 25 of 27 elections. He had already predicted a probability of victory for Trump in 2016 of 67 to 88 percent. But the interesting thing is what he predicts about the upcoming election: A 91% probability for re-election of Trump.  

More in this article:
https://local12.com/news/nation-world/professors-model-predicts-trump-having-91-chance-of-winning-re-election-cincinnati

Interesting article indeed and he has a very nice track record!
However, I more believe in the Oxford prediction that Biden will win thanks too the mismanagemt of Trump in this pandemic.

The lack of management is being found in each and everything. A president should always look for the words of the common people, but here the decisions were self made. This is the reason for such a result on the survey. Another thing I learned is his business policy. In each and everything he tries to do business forgetting humanity. Anyhow we can get the real results by November.

[bbc.reporter]

I would not say this factor or particular issue will far outweigh other socio-economic issues-- domestics ones to be exact-- that a lot of Americans are probably more critical about.

As an Asian and whose country is under constant territorial threat from the bully China, this particular issue is very important for me. But I cannot tell whether or not an ordinary American finds this specific issue equally important that it may determine his/her vote.

I am from India, and my country had a major unprovoked territorial fight with the Chinese a few weeks back. For Asians, Chinese aggression is a big concern. Not sure whether the same will be reflected in the United States, because they don't have any direct territorial dispute with China. At least in this case, I have to say that Trump is more effective when compared to Biden.

China has become an expansionist. Their government is expanding to your country, to the South China sea and they have passed a security law in Hong Kong which removes some of its citizens' freedoms and rights. It also has concentration camps of uighur muslims.

When was the last time a country acted like this and which country was it?

[amishmanish]

I would not say this factor or particular issue will far outweigh other socio-economic issues-- domestics ones to be exact-- that a lot of Americans are probably more critical about.

As an Asian and whose country is under constant territorial threat from the bully China, this particular issue is very important for me. But I cannot tell whether or not an ordinary American finds this specific issue equally important that it may determine his/her vote.

I am from India, and my country had a major unprovoked territorial fight with the Chinese a few weeks back. For Asians, Chinese aggression is a big concern. Not sure whether the same will be reflected in the United States, because they don't have any direct territorial dispute with China. At least in this case, I have to say that Trump is more effective when compared to Biden.

So what was the root cause of this Chinese aggression ? I am sure united nation would have taken necessary steps to normalize the situation in the borders.  Asia is becoming a tension hub.  

Chinese have never let the border issue settle with india and they kept vacillating about exchange of maps as well as demarcation of boundary for the longest time. Like the expansionist, deceitful entity that the CCP is, they wait for the right opportunity to poke India. They simply hate that India is cozying upto other world powers. That throws a wrench in their plans of dominating Asia and then the world. Regaining their historical place as the "Middle Kingdom".

The world's largest democracy at their borders is also pretty much an ideological affront to these Maoists. They obviously hate the comparisons between the Tiger and the Dragon. They regularly fail to make India tow their line, whether it is BRI, Vietnam or getting close with USA. Indian leadership realizes that having normal relations with China is important which is why Indian leaders keep trying to have meetings and summits with them. Yet, they are just too self-absorbed to see anyone at the same level as the CCP. They have a reliable ally in Pakistan to use against India. Indian Army is regularly at conflict at the western border and there is always talk about being ready for a two-front war. This is also one of the reasons that India is one of the largest "importers" of Arms from the developed world.

India is just in a hard place when it comes to geo-strategic reality. A poor neighbor who just wants blood at any cost. Pakistan famously follows the "Bleed India with a thousand cuts" strategy. Their is the historical narrative fed to the Pakistani public about the Muslim ruler conquering the Idol-worshipping Hindus, what they call as "Ghazwa-E-Hind". The other neighbor is a rich and powerful one which is desperate to play the big brother and show its ideological superiority over the world's largest democracy.

United Nations will do close to nothing in the border dispute. It is upto Indian Army and diplomacy to maintain the status quo till the situation erupts and a war--outcome decides the new border. That is just the grim reality. The chinese love to keep this pot simmering. They cannot have a democratic India invest in the well-being of its people in a peaceful manner and march on without any hurdles towards progress.

[babygun]

Just read an interesting article. Prof. Helmut Norpoth developed a prediction model that correctly predicted the outcome of the last 25 of 27 elections. He had already predicted a probability of victory for Trump in 2016 of 67 to 88 percent. But the interesting thing is what he predicts about the upcoming election: A 91% probability for re-election of Trump.  

More in this article:
https://local12.com/news/nation-world/professors-model-predicts-trump-having-91-chance-of-winning-re-election-cincinnati

Interesting article indeed and he has a very nice track record!
However, I more believe in the Oxford prediction that Biden will win thanks too the mismanagemt of Trump in this pandemic.

The lack of management is being found in each and everything. A president should always look for the words of the common people, but here the decisions were self made. This is the reason for such a result on the survey. Another thing I learned is his business policy. In each and everything he tries to do business forgetting humanity. Anyhow we can get the real results by November.

Yep, you are right, business comes for everything in the mind of Trump. Before the pandemic, I visited the US every month for work (Georgia) and there Trump has a lot of fans. He created more jobs for the Americans and economy was booming (stock market reached an ATH). The final result will mainly depend on how the swing states will vote.
I am also curious who will become the running mate of Biden.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Chinese have never let the border issue settle with india and they kept vacillating about exchange of maps as well as demarcation of boundary for the longest time. Like the expansionist, deceitful entity that the CCP is, they wait for the right opportunity to poke India. They simply hate that India is cozying upto other world powers. That throws a wrench in their plans of dominating Asia and then the world. Regaining their historical place as the "Middle Kingdom".

The world's largest democracy at their borders is also pretty much an ideological affront to these Maoists. They obviously hate the comparisons between the Tiger and the Dragon. They regularly fail to make India tow their line, whether it is BRI, Vietnam or getting close with USA. Indian leadership realizes that having normal relations with China is important which is why Indian leaders keep trying to have meetings and summits with them. Yet, they are just too self-absorbed to see anyone at the same level as the CCP. They have a reliable ally in Pakistan to use against India. Indian Army is regularly at conflict at the western border and there is always talk about being ready for a two-front war. This is also one of the reasons that India is one of the largest "importers" of Arms from the developed world.

India is just in a hard place when it comes to geo-strategic reality. A poor neighbor who just wants blood at any cost. Pakistan famously follows the "Bleed India with a thousand cuts" strategy. Their is the historical narrative fed to the Pakistani public about the Muslim ruler conquering the Idol-worshipping Hindus, what they call as "Ghazwa-E-Hind". The other neighbor is a rich and powerful one which is desperate to play the big brother and show its ideological superiority over the world's largest democracy.

United Nations will do close to nothing in the border dispute. It is upto Indian Army and diplomacy to maintain the status quo till the situation erupts and a war--outcome decides the new border. That is just the grim reality. The chinese love to keep this pot simmering. They cannot have a democratic India invest in the well-being of its people in a peaceful manner and march on without any hurdles towards progress.

Couldn't put it any better.

I don't want to divert the topic, so I will just concentrate on Trump's handling of this issue. The United States administration played a huge role, by sending warships to the South China Sea. China never expected that the US would openly support India during the territorial dispute and it was one of the reasons why they agreed to pullback from the disputed area (Galwan Valley). 

[tyz]

It really is tragic to see deaths that didnt have to happen, its just a case of waiting for a vaccine and read a book for a year.

That's a pretty western view. In fact, every year millions of people die who should not have to die, whether it is due to poor hygiene, water and health care or the lack of food. But this does not happen in the industrialized countries but in the developing and emerging countries. Therefore most people in the west do not know this situation. The current pandemic allows us to experience for the first time at first hand the social impact of such poor conditions on people and societies.

[Cnut237]

So what was the root cause of this Chinese aggression ? I am sure united nation would have taken necessary steps to normalize the situation in the borders.  Asia is becoming a tension hub.  

China has become a superpower and is starting to behave accordingly. We are seeing Chinese expansion everywhere, most notably their attempt to control the South China Sea.
One thing I would say about the situation in the Himalayas, and I've said it before in other threads, is that that specific area will be vital in future because it is the source of the major rivers in South East Asia. This is why China puts so much effort into controlling Tibet.
If we look at how the climate has changed in the last couple of decades, and anticipate that this will continue... and then couple this with the fact that SE Asia is heavily populated and becoming more so... control of water sources could be absolutely vital in the world of the near future.

[amishmanish]

So what was the root cause of this Chinese aggression ? I am sure united nation would have taken necessary steps to normalize the situation in the borders.  Asia is becoming a tension hub.  

China has become a superpower and is starting to behave accordingly. We are seeing Chinese expansion everywhere, most notably their attempt to control the South China Sea.
One thing I would say about the situation in the Himalayas, and I've said it before in other threads, is that that specific area will be vital in future because it is the source of the major rivers in South East Asia. This is why China puts so much effort into controlling Tibet.
If we look at how the climate has changed in the last couple of decades, and anticipate that this will continue... and then couple this with the fact that SE Asia is heavily populated and becoming more so... control of water sources could be absolutely vital in the world of the near future.

Like Vishnu said, this is going away from US Presidential election but then the geo-strategic issues are of vital importance to Americans too. Especially important is to recognize the Chinese threat. The cold war is long over but with the CCP, this is again going to be a battle of ideological supremacy. As far as Tibet and upper-riparian rights are concerned, nobody was in the mood to question Tibet. It was more of less a settled question with unabated dam building by the Chinese. As per international agreements, they are bound to share information regarding their storage and flow due to these dams. The Chinese used even this as a leverage against India during various standoffs at the border. The aggression has nothing to do with "Control of Tibet".

For the CCP and typical Maoist leaders like Xinpig, this is about realizing their world-view of a dominant middle kingdom. They harp onto a medieval nationalism of Han Supremacy. Why do you think they spend so much on keeping the Uighurs under the boot?? To them, it is about ensuring absolute control utilizing ultra-nationalism. To look strong and decisive within the CCP, Xinpig is forced to takes these steps.

China has no ethical claim to South China Sea or to Indian territories. Whether its Biden or Trump, they can neglect these Chinese noises only at their own peril.