US Presidential Election 2020

[Haunebu]

But as days or weeks passes by and Trump able to find good work or solution to control the outbreak, except that he will be on the Favorites again.

Come on people. Do you seriously expect Trump to not be one of the favorites at any point of time? He will remain the favorite despite his falling approval ratings in my opinion.

I am certain that the Trump haters on this thread forgot what occured versus Hillary during the 2016 election. Trump was given worse odds on 2016 than what is given today, however, he won.

You do realize that he has messed up on a cosmic level when it comes to controlling the COVID situation in his country, don't you? Literally, everyone hates Trump these days though he will still probably be re-elected.

[tyKiwanuka]

@tyKiwanuka. Lupus meds? What is on the data that it works and what is on the data that it does not work? What are doctors saying?

There is no real data yet if it works. Some patients, not only in US, were treated with it and showed somewhat good results. But for the majority there is no evidence of this med being useful - and it can even worsen things, since huge side effects are likely to show up (suicidal thoughts, hallucinations, cardiac issues etc.). All docs I heard are rather skeptical and don't see this being a medication for the masses, but only for individual cases after thoroughly weighing the pros and cons. Trump is mentioning that med in every media briefing as kind of an availalble cure though and you are wondering why, when the experts and his staff are not that high on it.

Worth mentioning that odds for Biden to become the nominee are 1.16 (vig removed probability of 85.58%). They are way higher than I thought they'd be and I'm really curious how much of that pricing is death/health issues and how much of it is a different candidate winning.

Here is some article regarding the health of Biden. This is what Bidens doc says:

A three-page letter from Biden’s physician concluded the former vice president is a “healthy, vigorous, 77-year-old” that is fit to be president. But the letter also revealed Biden receives treatment for an irregular heartbeat and high cholesterol and that he deals with acid reflux and seasonal allergies. It noted his already known history of aneurysms and that he took blood thinners.

And Obamas doc added these concerns:

The details from the letter made Scheiner, 81, concerned about Biden’s potential for strokes, and he said he would want to see results from an MRI or CT scan. Because Biden also used to have sleep apnea before getting surgery on his sinus and nasal passages, Scheiner said he would also like to review the results of a sleep study.

Biden already had a presidential campaign in 1988, which was cut short due to suffering these brain aneurysms. I am a firm believer in a lot of diseases being caused by pressure/stress/workload - some deal better with it, some worse. A 77-year old person is more vulnerable just by nature and if we speculate his body not dealing that well with stress, I would come to the conclusion that these ~14.5% of him not being the democratic nominee include a lot of anticipated health issues.

Looking at this Wikipedia article you need at least 1,991 pledged delegates to be the nominee and Biden has 1,217, while Sanders has 914. Sanders is a bit too different/out of the box in the end to make it close imo. You still have some east coast states upcoming, where Sanders should do well, but he already failed to win Maine and Massachusetts too and 300+ delegates is a lot to catch up.

Betfair Exchange as a whole is definitely a lot sharper and more knowledgeable than I am though, so I'm really curious if this reasoning is all chance of death/illness or if there's other major factors too.

The major factor in every regard is this virus imo, because no one knows what will happen, so lots of uncertainty in the markets. Without this virus, Trumps odds for Republican nominee would surely only include the health factor (so like 1.01 to be expected), but in these times even he has to choose his words very wisely. I agree, this 1.09 for Trump looks indeed huge though, since he gets away with almost everything.

[Betwrong]

~

For those not familiar with betting, odds of 46 imply a probabilty of ~2.17% for this outcome to happen. And I have the feeling, that the probabilty of Cuomo being the next president is higher.
~

I can relate to your view on this situation because in the recent times I made mostly these kinds of bets. Obviously it doesn't work with the regular sports betting because if you bet on something with 46.00 odds, you are doomed, man. But then I thought, why not try this strategy with Oscar betting? For example, the odds for Todd Philips getting Oscar directing Joker(a great movie imo) were 60.00! And the odds for Maleficent: Mistress of Evil getting Oscar for Bets Make Up and Hairstyling were 36.50.

Long story short, I placed over 40 bets on various sites by the principle high odds/not that low probability. And you know what? I lost all of them. I lost every single bet I placed, despite the fact that I saw almost all nominated films and that I follow Oscars for than 15 years.

Sorry if it's a bit off-topic. I just wanted to say that this strategy didn't work for me, like, at all.

[DarkStar_]

Betfair Exchange as a whole is definitely a lot sharper and more knowledgeable than I am though, so I'm really curious if this reasoning is all chance of death/illness or if there's other major factors too.

The major factor in every regard is this virus imo, because no one knows what will happen, so lots of uncertainty in the markets. Without this virus, Trumps odds for Republican nominee would surely only include the health factor (so like 1.01 to be expected), but in these times even he has to choose his words very wisely. I agree, this 1.09 for Trump looks indeed huge though, since he gets away with almost everything.

I'm not too sure about that. I can't find Betfair historical data for some reason, but on PredictIt, this is how shares for Trump to become the nominee have traded:


On PredictIt, a share pays out $1 if the result occurs. Volume is lower than Betfair, but spreads are also 1 cent. There's no clear period where COVID-19 wasn't a thing at all, so there's always going to be some COIVD-19 uncertainty and/or impeachment uncertainty. After Trump was acquitted, he traded at 94 cents for a few days (1.063 odds = 94% implied), which was prior to any major worry in the USA and the general thought was that it would largely stay in China. I'd say that health uncertainty definitely contributes at least 2 cents/1.02.

Long story short, I placed over 40 bets on various sites by the principle high odds/not that low probability. And you know what? I lost all of them. I lost every single bet I placed, despite the fact that I saw almost all nominated films and that I follow Oscars for than 15 years.

Sorry if it's a bit off-topic. I just wanted to say that this strategy didn't work for me, like, at all.

If you did know what you were doing and believed that you got +EV on most/all of your bets, you could have lost due to variance and not because the strategy was bad.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Disregarding the getting-sick factor, for which I don't hope, I am asking myself this: I am 77 years old and would like to be the next US President. My chances are more or less 50/50. A guy from my party, 15 years younger and with whom I have a friendly relationship, has way better chances to beat Trump and make my Democrats enter the WH again. What do I do ? Am I putting my own goals above the goals from my party and the future of my nation ?

Biden having once in a lifetime chance to become the most powerful person on the globe. Do you really think that he would sacrifice that and select one of his colleagues for the Democrat nomination? And that too someone who doesn't even figured in the primaries? Forget about his age. Biden would still be the candidate, even if he is 87 years old.

As you said, Biden needs to put his own goals above the goals from his party and the future of the United States. Agreed. But what if Biden thinks that by running for the president (as a moderate Democrat, he has one of the best chances against Trump), he is perfectly in line with the goals from his party? I am sure that Biden thinks that he is doing a favor for the US, by running against Trump.

[tyKiwanuka]

I'm not too sure about that. I can't find Betfair historical data for some reason, but on PredictIt, this is how shares for Trump to become the nominee have traded: (...)

I'd say that health uncertainty definitely contributes at least 2 cents/1.02.

Trump was already the de facto Republican nominee before or by the time Corona became an issue in the US:

In February 2019, the Republican National Committee voted to provide undivided support to Trump.[5][6] Several states have decided to cancel their primaries and caucuses.[7] Other states were encouraged to use "winner-takes-all" or "winner-takes-most" systems to award delegates instead of using proportional allocation.[8][9]

Trump became the presumptive Republican presidential nominee on March 17, 2020 after securing a majority of pledged delegates.[10]

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

This chart is a bit hard to analyze without exact time stamps, but the green arrow should mark the point of Trump becoming the nominee with no (or not a lot) Corona:


Source: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/marketactivity?handicap=0&id=1.128999265&selectionId=10874213

The lowest he traded was 1.03:


Source: https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/marketactivity?handicap=0&id=1.128999265&selectionId=10874213

The biggest portion of that 1.03 is health issues, so your 1.02 is probably pretty good. Then you have a little bit of the unlikely event of him stepping down voluntarily, being forced to step down, already a tiny bit of Corona maybe and whatever could happen to change the dynamics.

When things got worse with Corona, odds went up to maybe 1.12 and we are now at 1.08/1.09, after people got more used to bad Corona news. So we have ~0.05 Corona factor added. These 0.05 include higher probability of health issues for Trump (see Boris Johnson), but all the other factors, that were tiny in the 1.03, have gained more likelihood too.

Biden having once in a lifetime chance to become the most powerful person on the globe. Do you really think that he would sacrifice that and select one of his colleagues for the Democrat nomination?

That is what I would do, yes, or at least consider, if I rated my chances 50%, while a colleague of mine has 70% maybe. But I am not the person looking for power and politicians are a different species. I would talk to that colleague first of course, if he would be willing to do it. If he convincingly rules it out 100% and I see no other candidate with way more chances than me, then I would keep going.

[squatz1]

Disregarding the getting-sick factor, for which I don't hope, I am asking myself this: I am 77 years old and would like to be the next US President. My chances are more or less 50/50. A guy from my party, 15 years younger and with whom I have a friendly relationship, has way better chances to beat Trump and make my Democrats enter the WH again. What do I do ? Am I putting my own goals above the goals from my party and the future of my nation ?

Biden having once in a lifetime chance to become the most powerful person on the globe. Do you really think that he would sacrifice that and select one of his colleagues for the Democrat nomination? And that too someone who doesn't even figured in the primaries? Forget about his age. Biden would still be the candidate, even if he is 87 years old.

As you said, Biden needs to put his own goals above the goals from his party and the future of the United States. Agreed. But what if Biden thinks that by running for the president (as a moderate Democrat, he has one of the best chances against Trump), he is perfectly in line with the goals from his party? I am sure that Biden thinks that he is doing a favor for the US, by running against Trump.

Yeah I don't think any of us, anyone in the media, anyone writing articles, and so on and so forth understand that when you're this close to the presidency -- you're not going to just drop out to be a team player. Maybe if you were a younger democrat and you thought it would be benifitical down the line (think of someone like Mayor Pete) but if you're an older person and you can't wait another 4 years for another shot, you're gonna stick in this and hope and pray.

I can't even imagine what that would be like. Imagine being this close to being the leader of the free world and then losing the election? Whew. Thank god none of us on here will be close to that, hehe.

[bbc.reporter]

But as days or weeks passes by and Trump able to find good work or solution to control the outbreak, except that he will be on the Favorites again.

Come on people. Do you seriously expect Trump to not be one of the favorites at any point of time? He will remain the favorite despite his falling approval ratings in my opinion.

I am certain that the Trump haters on this thread forgot what occured versus Hillary during the 2016 election. Trump was given worse odds on 2016 than what is given today, however, he won.

You do realize that he has messed up on a cosmic level when it comes to controlling the COVID situation in his country, don't you? Literally, everyone hates Trump these days though he will still probably be re-elected.

How has he messed up? Should you not consider that it was really China that messed up? Also, if everyone hates Trump, why do you speculate that he might win again?

I shake my head.

In any case, there are some commentaries that the Democrats are underestimating Bernie Sanders' ability to gather independent votes. Many independents who might vote for him might not vote for Biden.

[tyKiwanuka]

Long story short, I placed over 40 bets on various sites by the principle high odds/not that low probability. And you know what? I lost all of them. I lost every single bet I placed, despite the fact that I saw almost all nominated films and that I follow Oscars for than 15 years.

Sorry if it's a bit off-topic. I just wanted to say that this strategy didn't work for me, like, at all.

As DarkStar_ said, betting on high odds requires a lot of patience, stamina and mental strength, because you will go through long droughts. And very important as always is to shop for the best odds; it makes one hell of a difference longterm and we can only think longterm with betting to eliminate the luck factor.

I was checking the odds for Cuomo at various other bookmakers:

Bet365: 26.00
Stake: 26.62
Dafabet: 26.00

Betfair: 50.00

See the difference ? Nearly double the odds, a difference of 1.8%+ in implied probabilty, this is huge.


Regarding the health issues, I found some bet at 5dimes:


Source: https://www.5dimes.eu/

Very borderline imo.

[Betwrong]

~

Long story short, I placed over 40 bets on various sites by the principle high odds/not that low probability. And you know what? I lost all of them. I lost every single bet I placed, despite the fact that I saw almost all nominated films and that I follow Oscars for than 15 years.

Sorry if it's a bit off-topic. I just wanted to say that this strategy didn't work for me, like, at all.

If you did know what you were doing and believed that you got +EV on most/all of your bets, you could have lost due to variance and not because the strategy was bad.

Thank you! Every gambler would be happy to  hear these words.

Now I'm thinking on continuing with this strategy, only with some corrections made: maybe I will stop placing bets on the events where odds are too high. I prefer betting on high multipliers anyway, but there is a big difference between a dice bet with 200x multiplier, and a bet with the same odds on sports betting. There is no such thing as "too high odds" for luck-based games, I personally won with 9900x multiplier on dice several times and I won with 9k+ multiplier on Mines just recently, but in sports betting, with the exception of multi bets, odds higher than 100.00 mean it's never gonna happen.

[Vishnu.Reang]

In any case, there are some commentaries that the Democrats are underestimating Bernie Sanders' ability to gather independent votes. Many independents who might vote for him might not vote for Biden.

Well.. that's what happened in 2016. Those who voted for Sanders, at least a large part of them stayed at home or turned out to vote for Jill Stein. But the circumstances have changed. Back then, Hillary was accused of stealing the primary election from Sanders. This time Biden is defeating Sanders comfortably in most of the states. And the idea of a second term for Trump horrifies many of the Sanders supporters. They will be forced to support Biden, albeit unwillingly.

[South Park]

Anything is possible, i did not expect Trump to win the elections after many news outlets were biased and mocking him even though Hilary is not the best candidate

That's likely because guys like you and me are fed the headlines we unconsciously like. The media is always going to be biased, depending on which side they support -- essentially, which politics ends up filling up their rice bowl, and that's fair game these days. So if we don't seek out Trump media, then we wouldn't have known.

I would say that Brexit gave a clue though. I think the only ones who were truly shocked were the upper middle class in affluent societies. They just did not expect the working class to be that angry.

I'm not betting on this, just never do, but Trump's the smart money at 2/1. People (and I mean Joe on the street) actually like Trump and his money-where-my-mouth-is, walk-the-walk attitude.

We also need to take into account that the last president to lose the reelection was George Bush(the father) on 1992, that was 28 years ago and before him the last one to lose the reelection was Jimmy Carter on 1980, that was 40 years ago, as we can see it is unlikely for a US president to lose the reelection and in times of crisis people have the tendency to leave the current president in charge instead of taking the risk with a new president, this happened during WW2 and if this crisis is unresolved for a long time and people are afraid of what it is to come then Trump may gain voters without actually doing anything.

[mu_enrico]

Trump is the incumbent, so I firmly believe he will be the favorite. Just like a famous quote, "There is no such thing as bad publicity," he received so much air time for the last five years and even gaining more air time with the Covid-19 task force. And who is the strongest candidate from Democrat? Biden? I have the feeling Democrat will be spanked hard this election.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Trump is the incumbent, so I firmly believe he will be the favorite. Just like a famous quote, "There is no such thing as bad publicity," he received so much air time for the last five years and even gaining more air time with the Covid-19 task force. And who is the strongest candidate from Democrat? Biden? I have the feeling Democrat will be spanked hard this election.

Trump is the favorite?

During the past 6 months, none of the national polls have shown a lead for Trump. All of them have shown Democrat candidates leading by anywhere from 5 to 10 points.

But then the US elections are a bit complex. It's not the popular vote, but the electoral vote which counts. And Trump do have a fair chance in some of the "battleground" states, such as Florida (29 electoral votes) and Ohio (18 electoral votes).

Florida is going to be the most crucial state. If Trump loses that state, then the elections are over for him.

[20kevin20]

Wow. The answers to this topic vs what I see on the front page of Reddit, Twitter, Google, MSM and in the top comments of all these is mindblowing. Maybe I'm looking at 2 different mindsets, put the list above next to BTCTalk and you have 2 completely opposed things.

Anyways, I don't really get the "cents" and all those things some members have talked about (including graphs) to be honest but I'm very interested in the US Presidential Elections. I was wondering, is there any gambling website offering the possibility to bet on the delay/cancellation of the elections?

Most MSM articles I've read say he just cannot cancel them, "But that doesn’t mean disasters can’t wreak havoc on democracy as usual". I'm not thinking about what Trump wants but I'm rather looking at it from a rougher perspective: if a second, tougher wave of the pandemic comes in after summer and countries will need to take even stricter measures than the ones we took in the past months, is there really no way the elections could be delayed/cancelled? I'd bet on a second strain/wave of the virus coming through this autumn, so I'm wondering whether this is a possibility or not.

[tyKiwanuka]

And Trump do have a fair chance in some of the "battleground" states, such as Florida (29 electoral votes) and Ohio (18 electoral votes).

What Trump "did" in 2016 was just amazing, if that word makes any sense. He won a) all swing states and b) won states that had a long-ish history of being won by the Democrats.

Regarding b) this is Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, totalling up to 46 electoral votes (remember the electoral votes: Trump 304 - 227 Clinton). These 46 ev he won with a combined margin of 1.72%: Michigan 0.23%, Pennsylvania 0.72%, Wisconsin 0.77%. These three states were democratic territory for a long period of time, but in 2016 were republican:

Democrats won Michigan from 1992-2012.
Democrats won Pennsylvania from 1992-2012.
Democrats won Wisconsin from 1992-2012.

There was no state that was suddenly won by the Democrats with having a republican history.

It's not the popular vote, but the electoral vote which counts.

Yes, Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 as well and Biden is 1.60-ish for winning it this year, while Trump is 3.00+.

I was wondering, is there any gambling website offering the possibility to bet on the delay/cancellation of the elections?

I found this one today:


Source: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/politics-props

They do accept crypto, if you want to take your chances But KYC is needed imo.

[LTU_btc]

BTW, what will happen if it will be impossible to held elections on planned date due to Coronavirus pandemy? I haven't read US Constitution, so it would be interesting what would happen in such situation. As I remember, online voting isn't allowed in US. Would that mean that Trump would remain to be President until new elections will be held later - for longer period than 4 years.

[tyKiwanuka]

BTW, what will happen if it will be impossible to held elections on planned date due to Coronavirus pandemy? I haven't read US Constitution, so it would be interesting what would happen in such situation. As I remember, online voting isn't allowed in US. Would that mean that Trump would remain to be President until new elections will be held later - for longer period than 4 years.

This article talks about the possibilities (scroll down a bit): https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/presidential-election-postponed/

[bbc.reporter]

And Trump do have a fair chance in some of the "battleground" states, such as Florida (29 electoral votes) and Ohio (18 electoral votes).

What Trump "did" in 2016 was just amazing, if that word makes any sense. He won a) all swing states and b) won states that had a long-ish history of being won by the Democrats.

That was the entire fault of President Obama. The people were not happy with his presidency.

Also, the information on the internet may have informed them to not listen to mainstream media anymore. Mainstream media is only another type of brainwashing, or to use facebook terminology, fake news to put you on the side of the people who create and run the storyboards.

[Daniel91]

And Trump do have a fair chance in some of the "battleground" states, such as Florida (29 electoral votes) and Ohio (18 electoral votes).

What Trump "did" in 2016 was just amazing, if that word makes any sense. He won a) all swing states and b) won states that had a long-ish history of being won by the Democrats.

That was the entire fault of President Obama. The people were not happy with his presidency.

Also, the information on the internet may have informed them to not listen to mainstream media anymore. Mainstream media is only another type of brainwashing, or to use facebook terminology, fake news to put you on the side of the people who create and run the storyboards.

I don't think so.
Main reason why Trump won is Hillary Clinton.
She had so much issues and problems that average  people simple didn't want to vote for her.
Obama was one of the most popular US president in history.
Many fake news on social media was created by Russian in order to help Trump to win Presidential elections.