US Presidential Election 2020

[tyKiwanuka]

In any case, odds on Trump are trending in his favor. What does this say?

Biden is still leading in almost all the swing states, as per the opinion polls. The ground reports also confirm this. The only thing that can make the difference now is the turnout. And this is where I believe that Trump has the advantage. Trump supporters are much more likely to get out to vote, when compared to Biden supporters. But I don't know whether this difference is enough to hand him a win in November. None of the opinion polls can accurately measure this factor.

There is also a difference in betting markets vs opinion polls at this very moment. The polls look at the present, like: If the election was today, who would get your vote ? It can and will change over time. The betting markets don't care that much what is the status quo today - they are anticipating (or trying to), what will happen in the future, on November 3rd to be precise. And they are leaning very much towards Trump having the upper hand when that day has come, because it's already a 50/50 market at this point whereas this makes no sense looking from a poll point of view.

This is also a result of the 2016 election and the markets are very confident (overconfident ?) that this will happen again and don't want to miss out this time; some kind of FOMO

[Vishnu.Reang]

There is also a difference in betting markets vs opinion polls at this very moment. The polls look at the present, like: If the election was today, who would get your vote ? It can and will change over time. The betting markets don't care that much what is the status quo today - they are anticipating (or trying to), what will happen in the future, on November 3rd to be precise. And they are leaning very much towards Trump having the upper hand when that day has come, because it's already a 50/50 market at this point whereas this makes no sense looking from a poll point of view.

This is also a result of the 2016 election and the markets are very confident (overconfident ?) that this will happen again and don't want to miss out this time; some kind of FOMO

This is very much true. Trump is trailing in almost all the swing states (and even in some of the red states such as Texas and Georgia), and even with this, the betting odds are not very lopsided. I just checked William Hill, and they are having exactly same odds for both the candidates (10/11). Same is the case with other sites such as Betfair and VBET. Most surprising are the odds from bet365, 888Sport.etc. They are giving better odds to Trump, when compared to Biden.

If we go by the opinion polls, then the odds should be somewhere around 5/1 or 4/1 for Trump.

I think that this is the first time in the history of POTUS elections that we have such a discrepancy between the odds and the opinion polls.

[Cnut237]

There is also a difference in betting markets vs opinion polls at this very moment. The polls look at the present, like: If the election was today, who would get your vote ? It can and will change over time. The betting markets don't care that much what is the status quo today - they are anticipating (or trying to), what will happen in the future, on November 3rd to be precise. And they are leaning very much towards Trump having the upper hand

I think one reason for this discrepancy is that people aren't always honest in opinion polls. Generally it is right-wing candidates who benefit from this effect: there are likely far more people who will vote Trump but won't admit it, than there are people who will vote Biden but won't admit it. We see this time and time again across different countries. The more controversial (and right-wing) a candidate is, the greater the effect. I'd imagine betting companies are fully aware of this, whereas opinion polls simply reflect what people say they will do, rather than what they actually do.

[wheelz1200]

There is also a difference in betting markets vs opinion polls at this very moment. The polls look at the present, like: If the election was today, who would get your vote ? It can and will change over time. The betting markets don't care that much what is the status quo today - they are anticipating (or trying to), what will happen in the future, on November 3rd to be precise. And they are leaning very much towards Trump having the upper hand when that day has come, because it's already a 50/50 market at this point whereas this makes no sense looking from a poll point of view.

This is also a result of the 2016 election and the markets are very confident (overconfident ?) that this will happen again and don't want to miss out this time; some kind of FOMO

This is very much true. Trump is trailing in almost all the swing states (and even in some of the red states such as Texas and Georgia), and even with this, the betting odds are not very lopsided. I just checked William Hill, and they are having exactly same odds for both the candidates (10/11). Same is the case with other sites such as Betfair and VBET. Most surprising are the odds from bet365, 888Sport.etc. They are giving better odds to Trump, when compared to Biden.

If we go by the opinion polls, then the odds should be somewhere around 5/1 or 4/1 for Trump.

I think that this is the first time in the history of POTUS elections that we have such a discrepancy between the odds and the opinion polls.

Opinion polls have proven to not be a reliable needle either way.  I'd rather look at betting statistics nailing the presidential win versus opinion polls.  The silent majority does not get counted in opinion polls whereas there is no silent majority in betting.  There isn't as much backlash when putting putting you money on a particular candidate since the betting event is isolated to only the better and the book

[Captain Corporate]

 I believe USA can't get rid of Trump because Trump is not the cause of the problem, Trump is the consequences of the problem. Do you think USA would had Trump if there weren't people who cheered him on when he did something? You think BLM would be out on the streets if a cop actually got a punishment when he killed someone? You think Congress would have to attack every move Trump makes if he didn't threaten the very existence of democracy? These are not causes of something, these are consequences of it and USA unfortunately is filled with people who actually hate blacks, who actually support the right of the wealthy over the needy and who cares only for individual rights they have over the betterment of the country. If USA was this horrible place, nobody would have gain any power by being anything like Trump.

[bryant.coleman]

I think one reason for this discrepancy is that people aren't always honest in opinion polls. Generally it is right-wing candidates who benefit from this effect: there are likely far more people who will vote Trump but won't admit it, than there are people who will vote Biden but won't admit it. We see this time and time again across different countries. The more controversial (and right-wing) a candidate is, the greater the effect. I'd imagine betting companies are fully aware of this, whereas opinion polls simply reflect what people say they will do, rather than what they actually do.

Back in 2016, there were widespread incidents of vandalism and physical attacks against those who openly voiced their support for Trump. This in turn forced some of his supporters (especially those in the minority dominated inner city areas) to hide their political leaning. But the opinion polls now claim that their methodology takes in to account this under-counting.

[figmentofmyass]

Trump is trailing in almost all the swing states (and even in some of the red states such as Texas and Georgia), and even with this, the betting odds are not very lopsided. I just checked William Hill, and they are having exactly same odds for both the candidates (10/11). Same is the case with other sites such as Betfair and VBET. Most surprising are the odds from bet365, 888Sport.etc. They are giving better odds to Trump, when compared to Biden.

If we go by the opinion polls, then the odds should be somewhere around 5/1 or 4/1 for Trump.

I think that this is the first time in the history of POTUS elections that we have such a discrepancy between the odds and the opinion polls.

the polls aren't that lopsided. biden only has a 7 point lead on average.



betfair currently has biden up by 2 points. https://odds.watch/trump-2020

for comparison, betfair was giving clinton an 80% chance of winning on election day in 2016. polls varied, but a reuters/ipsos poll the day before the election gave her a 90% chance of winning.
https://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-odds-winning-election-trump-2016-11
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/clinton-has-90-percent-chance-of-winning-reuters-ipsos-states-of-the-nation-idUSKBN1322J1

[Cnut237]

Back in 2016, there were widespread incidents of vandalism and physical attacks against those who openly voiced their support for Trump. This in turn forced some of his supporters (especially those in the minority dominated inner city areas) to hide their political leaning. But the opinion polls now claim that their methodology takes in to account this under-counting.

Perhaps, but we do see this effect time and again in elections across the world, so it would be quite a precedent if the pollsters have actually managed to account for it. We do also of course have the issue that when a poll starts implementing modifications and algorithms to correct for perceived inaccuracies, then it ceases to an extent to be a poll and becomes more of a predicted outcome, with its accuracy dependent not just on the honesty of prospective voters, but also on the type and quality of the modifications.

[bryant.coleman]

I have no words.   Unless Russia interferes again (it's been proven) I don't see how trump can win.    Either way,  I'm sad for this country.   I can't deal with another 4 years from Trump.   I'm not stoked about Biden either.   There is a ton of civil unrest and I don't think a lot of people realize how close we are to civil war.   And I'm not an alarmist, i promise. 

Don't give stupid excuses. If Russia is able to intervene during the presidential election process in the United States, then it would mean that the entire process is a joke. It looks as if the Democrat supporters, even after 4 years don't want to admit that they lost in 2016 because of wrong candidate selection. Sanders won the primaries, but the Democrat establishment rigged it and gave nomination to Hillary. As a result, most of the Sanders supporters refrained from voting, and this enabled Trump to win.

This is what happened in 2016. Don't repeat the stupid story of Russian intervention. And for me, it seems like the Democrats are already looking for excuses in case they lose in 2020 as well. 

[wiss19]

betting odds are showing the same thing. biden and trump are basically neck and neck in the odds now. i expected a trump recovery but not so quickly! https://odds.watch/trump-2020

anyway, this kind of atmosphere bolsters biden's chances in my mind. another trump victory just like 2016? that sounds a little too predictable.

You have a point there. Back in 2016, most of the people expected Hillary to win easily. Especially the Democrat voters stayed at home and didn't bothered to vote. That is not the case now. Trump and Biden are neck to neck now... and what happened four years back is not going to repeat. Turnout is going to be high, but I am worried about the impact the pandemic can have.

I hate it when people talk about 2016 and how Hillary was leading all the polls and even the odds and how in 2020 Biden is leading both of them again and people keep saying "well that means nothing same happened in 2016 as well".

First of all people hated Hillary Clinton way more than everyone hates Biden, he is not as bad as she was so that is out of question to begin with.

Secondly and more importantly, the difference is we had 4 years of Trump, we had a presidency that was filled with corrupt and fascist movement that saw more and more innocent people dead and we have seen him literally do nothing about the pandemic and over a quarter million of Americans dead because of trump. So, please do not come up with 2016 and 2020 similarities, there are none, Biden will win this easily not because Biden is such a great candidate, but because Trump is evil resurrected.

[bryant.coleman]

Umm.. a REPUBLICAN let panel confirmed this.   https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/18/us/politics/senate-intelligence-russian-interference-report.html

if your own party has confirmed this, how can you argue?   this isn't the dems, this isn't the liberal media.  It's your own GOP senators.    so it's not propaganda.  It's fact.     

Russians leaked some emails which proved that the Democrat primaries were rigged in favor of Hillary Clinton. Now you are blaming the whistle-blower instead of the people who rigged the polls. What sort of logic is that? And do you still believe that Hillary lost as a result of the so called "Russian intervention"? If that is the case, then I pity on you.

[Cnut237]

And do you still believe that Hillary lost as a result of the so called "Russian intervention"? If that is the case, then I pity on you.

It was certainly a contributing factor. Russia works to improve the strength of Russia relative to its opponents/rivals. The easiest way to achieve this is by weakening or destabilising those rivals. Russia has been implicated in election manipulation quite a few times, it's not just US 2016. Here in the UK for example, Russia were involved in supporting Scottish independence during the referendum (Scotland seceding from the UK weakens the UK). Russia were involved in supporting the Brexit vote (the UK leaving the EU weakens both the UK and other European nations, as well as the EU itself, and NATO). Whether you're a Trumpist or not, it's difficult to deny that he polarises opinion and has led to infighting and civil unrest within the US, as well as weakening the US's reputation and standing on the global stage - exactly as Russia would desire. The modern world is connected and global, and the internet - particularly social media - is largely anonymous. It's easy to create fake 'people'. And it's difficult to believe that Russia can be stopped from interfering.

[johhnyUA]

This is what happened in 2016. Don't repeat the stupid story of Russian intervention. And for me, it seems like the Democrats are already looking for excuses in case they lose in 2020 as well. 

As you can see, they (democrats) do it again. I mean they don't allow Sanders to go for election and choose Biden, who for young voters not better candidate than Trump (maybe very few). So their chances are close enough (Trump chances raising, book odds falls decreasing)

And yeah, story about Russia intervention is silly enough. Why not China?

[STT]

I can't deal with another 4 years from Trump.   I'm not stoked about Biden either. 

Im not a fan of politics overall, its very often a waste of time and energy for those who cant avoid its power.   Im more interested in natural dynamics, the people have to take some responsibility for whoever is voted in.   So I would mostly be looking at Trump voters or people on the right and how possible is it they have enough regret to change a vote or not even that, just not vote Trump and vote nobody would be enough.   I guess a couple could even vote Kayne though the story is more liberal voters will detract from Biden to Kayne.   Some will say its impossible that Kayne means anything but at least one state maybe it tips the scales, I dont know but seems like this could be close enough of an election.
   Right now I do think Biden wins because he isnt causing left wing voters to switch and apparently that happened with Hilary, maybe that story is wrong but seems to fit and who can really call the voters which can go either way in each election.  Im convinced a fair few dont decide until the very day of the election vote and thats it they lick their finger walking up the steps to see which way the wind blows and decide thats the way to go on the day.

[Vishnu.Reang]

This is what happened in 2016. Don't repeat the stupid story of Russian intervention. And for me, it seems like the Democrats are already looking for excuses in case they lose in 2020 as well. 

As you can see, they (democrats) do it again. I mean they don't allow Sanders to go for election and choose Biden, who for young voters not better candidate than Trump (maybe very few). So their chances are close enough (Trump chances raising, book odds falls decreasing)

And yeah, story about Russia intervention is silly enough. Why not China?

The Democrats were looking for an excuse after the 2016 loss, and they came up with the theory of Russian intervention. That can't hide the fact that the sole reason why they lost in 2016 was due to poor candidate selection. They nominated someone who can never be elected, and that too by rigging the primary polls.

But this time, I didn't found any evidence of rigging during the Democrat primaries. Biden secured the nomination in a fair manner. Sanders failed in securing support from groups outside his core-support base, such as African Americans. The only thing that I didn't liked about the Democrat primaries is the way they sidelined Tulsi Gabbard, by changing the rules.

[Cnut237]

The Democrats were looking for an excuse after the 2016 loss, and they came up with the theory of Russian intervention. That can't hide the fact that the sole reason why they lost in 2016 was due to poor candidate selection. They nominated someone who can never be elected, and that too by rigging the primary polls.

Yes, to an extent it is their own fault by rigging the primaries. Yes, they selected a poor candidate. Yes, they were looking for an excuse. All true. But... this doesn't mean that Russian interference isn't also true. See my post above - there are plenty of other elections where there is evidence of Russian interference. If we think about the way that nations behave in the open (particularly Russia under Putin), and assume they are also behaving the same way in secret, and if we combine this with the fact that it is quite easy for a state actor to influence social media, then it seems - to me at least - extremely likely that Russian meddling is having an effect.

[Captain Corporate]

 I am not the one who would ever defend Hillary Clinton because I do not like her at all, by all means she shouldn't be a president if its avoidable. However there are two things that are important in that scenario, first) if the other candidate is Trump, you could vote for a garbage can filled with puke and it would still be more likeable and can run the country better than Trump, so yes Hillary Clinton is not a sensible option for anyone in a regular scenario but 2016 wasn't regular, there was one evil person and one bad person, I would pick the bad one over evil any day.

 Secondly, "russian intervention" is not really a denied fact anymore, of course there could be Trumpets that will think it is, but it is LITERALLY proven fact, you can alternatively say that there is no connection that Trump requested this help, as long as Trump can say he didn't requested it, you can't stop Russians intervening and can't punish anyone who gets help unless they were a part, but the fact that it DID happen is not something you can deny and people would accept, it is a fact and there are literally records showing Russians actually did helped Trump.

 These are all gone anyway, 2016 is already decided and the presidency won on that is almost over, so there is no point on dwelling there. This time it is Joe Biden, I would say he is MUCH better than Hillary as well, still not ideal person, we would want a person with absolutely no flaws at all but there is no such thing and unfortunately politicians definitely have more flaws than other people, but comparing these three, Biden is like a saint compared to Hillary and Trump, so lets say USA makes the right choice this tim.e

[STT]

Too many viewed Clinton as subversive and not really open and representative, Trump is as obvious as they come.   The present criticism of him now of not supporting troops was fairly evident at least on quarrels with some individuals (imo that was enough) even before his election seems like, I'm not sure he got any worse on that point but just generally he is not diplomatic ever but brash and outspoken.   Its hard to say thats a positive but when you run for office you must give a clear message and he is totally obvious imo where as Hilary I dont think transmits that enough.  Its something I've noted will upset voters if a candidate comes off as acting superior or not one of the people.
  Theres leadership qualities of course and its been a while since I felt that of someone in politics especially though a good speech can help change perceptions and swing voters imo.   In any case even if Biden got the same amount of votes as Hilary he could be a winner, she did get the majority but not the right mix and if ever theres an upset it would only require a repeat of the same amount of votes.  Did the Democrat party get less popular in the last 4 years, if not its reasonable to say they will at least repeat and perhaps return more votes where needed, for a win overall.

Biden still has odds as the underdog some places, I'd bet Trump if I spot low odds for him.

[bryant.coleman]

Biden still has odds as the underdog some places, I'd bet Trump if I spot low odds for him.

It is perplexing to see such a big difference between the betting odds and the probabilities being given by websites such as Realclearpolitics and
FiveThirtyEight. Many of the gambling sites now (slightly) favor Trump to win the 2020 POTUS elections. On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight is giving a 71% chance that Biden may win this election. Given this, the most logical thing to do would be to place a bet in favor of Biden.

[Cnut237]

It is perplexing to see such a big difference between the betting odds and the probabilities being given by websites such as Realclearpolitics and
FiveThirtyEight. Many of the gambling sites now (slightly) favor Trump to win the 2020 POTUS elections. On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight is giving a 71% chance that Biden may win this election. Given this, the most logical thing to do would be to place a bet in favor of Biden.

Yes, you're right, seems sensible to bet for Biden if you can get good odds. I suppose with gambling sites, they are adjusting their odds based on how much money is being bet (at what odds) on each party, so it doesn't purely reflect the candidates' chances.

I wonder what the odds are on Trump losing, but then refusing to accept that he's lost, and barricading himself in the White House? Got to be worth a bet.