US Presidential Election 2020

[erikoy]

The judges can't take decisions as per their liking. They are supposed to follow the constitution and the penal code. And I believe that the system they have in the United States is much better than the one that exists in some of the other countries such as India. At least in the United States, corruption allegations against judges are very rare, since they are being held accountable.

Do really India had bad system for conducting election? or the vote buying that happen? Mostly in third world countries vote buying is very rampant that people loves too get despite they know that if the candidate win by vote buying it will reflect on them by bad services to be made making the candidates get his spenditures during the election vote buying. This is very sad attitude of the people willing to risk the true essense of voting and influence by vote buying. If you are vote buying candidate then people will look at you as a good candidate.

[bryant.coleman]

Do really India had bad system for conducting election? or the vote buying that happen? Mostly in third world countries vote buying is very rampant that people loves too get despite they know that if the candidate win by vote buying it will reflect on them by bad services to be made making the candidates get his spenditures during the election vote buying. This is very sad attitude of the people willing to risk the true essense of voting and influence by vote buying. If you are vote buying candidate then people will look at you as a good candidate.

I was talking about the system of appointing the judges and not about the elections. I mentioned India because I am a regular visitor to that country. I would say that they have the worst system possible. Judges are promoted on the basis of family ties, with seniority taking a second place. Most of the judges in the supreme court are sons or daughters of former judges.

A number of judges were accused in corruption scandals, with lots and lots of proof. But no action could be taken against them, as a result of judicial immunity. A well known former CJI apparently received around $30 million bribe from the Catholic church, to turn down narcoanalysis results in Sister Abhaya murder case. This judge made the ruling that narco analysis can't be considered as evidence. Another CJI demanded a $60 million bribe from a chief minister of one of the northeastern states. The CM committed suicide later, and in the suicide letter he claimed that the unrelenting demands for bribe from the CJI pushed him towards this drastic step. And once again, no action was taken against the judge. What they have in the US is much better than this sham.

[bbc.reporter]

Which percentage is the most believable? I am quite certain the pollsters and media groups doing their polls have their own motives or might also be corrupted by the side that pays more hehe.

The betting market is the most impartial, however, short of including the silent majority on the odds.

Chance of Trump being re-elected? Latest forecasts:
6%  
@LeanTossup
 
14%
@TheEconomist

18%
@DecisionDeskHQ

20%
@NewStatesman

23%
@FiveThirtyEight

Betting markets: Around 45%

Source https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/1308043486537580544?s=12

[bryant.coleman]

^^^ The figure from fivethirtyeight looks like the most trustworthy one. Biden is clearly having a huge advantage at this point of time. Betting market odds are better for Trump, because a lot of people are betting in his favor. His higher odds are not because Trump is having a higher probability, but because of the numerical superiority who "believes" that he'll win the elections.  Therefore IMO, Trump's chances are around 10% to 20% at this point.

[bbc.reporter]

@bryant.coleman. I do not agree. The betting market odds is the more accurate indicator because the betting whales would have bet heavily on Biden already if the figure for fivethirtyeight was accurate.

The betting markets are controlled by the whales. This is not only a group of casual bettors who are chasing a lucky win on Trump.

[bryant.coleman]

@bryant.coleman. I do not agree. The betting market odds is the more accurate indicator because the betting whales would have bet heavily on Biden already if the figure for fivethirtyeight was accurate.

The betting markets are controlled by the whales. This is not only a group of casual bettors who are chasing a lucky win on Trump.

What I was saying is that opinion polls are more accurate than betting odds. While calculating betting odds, a lot of assumptions are being made, which may not get realized. For Trump to win this election, he needs to win at least the following swing states:

1. Ohio
2. North Carolina
3. Florida
4. Arizona
5. Pensylvania

He can afford to lose other swing states such as Wisconsin, Nevada and Michigan. But the problem here is that while he may be having a fighting chance in NC and FL, he is too far behind in AZ and PA.

[notblox1]

I don't see any 'huge' advantage for Biden here, and also I don't see any advantage for Trump if we look at betting odds here: https://bitedge.com/odds-comparisons/us-presidential-election/
Please wait for presidential debate that is going to happen in few days, and then make make your decision.
Like Joe Rogan said recently, let's just not pretend that Biden cognitive decline does not exist please: 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-X5-kZuBn6U

[Tipstar]

I don't see any 'huge' advantage for Biden here, and also I don't see any advantage for Trump if we look at betting odds here: https://bitedge.com/odds-comparisons/us-presidential-election/
Please wait for presidential debate that is going to happen in few days, and then make make your decision.
Like Joe Rogan said recently, let's just not pretend that Biden cognitive decline does not exist please:  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-X5-kZuBn6U

It's getting as unpredictable as a coin roll. Trump is an absurd person. He's stupid but he knows what's good for the country, though his execution maybe bad, he is pure by heart.
Biden on the other hand is a good politician, and I assume he has no vested interest for his own. But he is surrounded by criminals and oligarchs who would sell of their own citizen's lives for money.  Democrats would sound better on debates, they know how to fool people using media.

[johhnyUA]

It's getting as unpredictable as a coin roll. Trump is an absurd person. He's stupid but he knows what's good for the country, though his execution maybe bad, he is pure by heart.
Biden on the other hand is a good politician, and I assume he has no vested interest for his own. But he is surrounded by criminals and oligarchs who would sell of their own citizen's lives for money.  Democrats would sound better on debates, they know how to fool people using media.

Congratulation, you can contradict yourself in one sentence. This is doesn't matter too much - democrats or republicans. Trump will be a little better for business, maybe. ANd Biden will stop this BLM riots. So this is the end of difference (in my view, without too much words).

I remember 2016 when many people were highly surprised and scared about Trump winning of election. What changed? Not too much (even trading war with China would be started with Trump or without him, because this is the interest of USA, not one person)

[tyKiwanuka]

I will lock this thread for some time, since 95% of the posts are more general chit-chat about the election and not betting related. I know this goes hand in hand to some extent, but I can't remember the last time some odds or other betting stuff was discussed/analyzed.

You can discuss the election in the Politics & Society board in the meantime. There are lots of threads about Trump, Biden and the election, which are not about betting on the outcome.