US Presidential Election 2020

[figmentofmyass]

I would argue that strict scientific criteria can be used to predict a election result fairly accurately. The only question is whether it is idiologically wanted. After the election 2016, some newspapers and polling institutes admitted that they probably lived in a bubble. The bubble primarily referred to so-called liberal areas on the east and west coasts and mostly ignored the heart and mainland. Institutes which were more openly to other opinions did a far better prediction, for example the Universtiy of California => https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20161108-story.html (which by the way was critized by some media for the good poll results for Trump before the election).

After observing in recent years that many of such liberal journalists have moved out of their bubble and also looked at other opinions in the country more strongly, it has recently seemed to me as if this is being reversed, also due to the latest political developments. For this reason, I think that current polls do not reflect the reality.

are you saying pollsters are exaggerating trump's chances of winning this time?

That's right we shouldn't trust polls because it is not accurate and even if someone is on the top like clinton on  2016 presidential election, nobody can predict what will happens next just like that clinton is on the top but during the day of the announcement of the winner, it turns out that trump is the one who won on the election.

i think the bookies can offer additional insight since their odds are largely based on how their punters bet. bookies may be in their own bubble but it's at least a different bubble than pollsters exist in.

shortly before the election, books were giving trump a 20% chance of winning. according to william hill, 75% of stake money was being bet on clinton at the time. https://money.com/donald-trump-2016-election-win-gambling-bets/

it's easy to forget that trump winning 1 out of 5 times =/= clinton was guaranteed victory. it's just like losing with pocket aces vs another pocket pair---it happens all the time. the pollster who predicted a 99% chance for clinton was an idiot, but those predicting 70-80% chances may actually have been right.

[bbc.reporter]

However, who creates the results of these polls? I am very skeptical. The ratings agencies were paid to rate subprime loans as AAA or AA during the 2008 housing bubble. I reckon something similar might also be transpiring on the polling process to make it appear that the briber's candidate is trending.

In any case, what is the situation on the riots in America? Is it escalating? This might be something everyone should read and think on how unpredictable the future might be.



The War Powers Act of 1941, also known as the First War Powers Act, was an American emergency law that increased Federal power during World War II. The act was signed by U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and put into law on December 18, 1941, less than two weeks after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. The act was similar to the Departmental Reorganization Act of 1917 as it was signed shortly before the U.S. engaged in a large war and increased the powers of the president's U.S. Executive Branch.

Source https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_Powers_Act_of_1941

[figmentofmyass]

However, who creates the results of these polls? I am very skeptical. The ratings agencies were paid to rate subprime loans as AAA or AA during the 2008 housing bubble.

these are the same pollsters who said trump's numbers were skyrocketing in march and early april. as discussed earlier, pollsters in the 2016 election were stuck in an elitist bubble, ignoring non-coastal cities and rural america. after their monumental failure in that election, i think they've mostly corrected for those shortcomings.

and with public sentiment turning against trump, punters are turning against him too. betfair has biden at 52% and trump at 42% now. that seems to reflect the most recent polls, which suggest trump's approval rating is plunging:



there is other tangible stuff too. i mentioned earlier about how trump is alienating religious conservatives. well, he is now obviously alienating prominent republicans, who are breaking ranks in increasing numbers: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/us/politics/trump-biden-republicans-voters.html

george bush and mitt romney came out saying they don't support trump, colin powell (bush SOS) said he is voting for biden and made a scathing public rebuke of trump. heavyweights like ryan, boehner, and murkowski refuse to publicly say whether they will be voting for trump because they know endorsing him now is a political disaster waiting to happen. trump is goddamn dumpster fire.

In any case, what is the situation on the riots in America? Is it escalating? This might be something everyone should read and think on how unpredictable the future might be.

rioting has calmed down but the protests continue. many curfews have been lifted since the recent protests have been more peaceful.

[DireWolfM14]

trump is goddamn dumpster fire.

He's been a dumpster fire since the moment he "walked down the escalator" to announce his candidacy.  I'm in agreement that his most recent rhetoric could spell his demise, but I really, honestly, truly can't see any conservatives or moderates voting for Biden at this point.  If Trump is to win, he needs to curb the twitter tough guy approach.  There's still plenty of time before the election, and we all know too well how short the MSM attention span is.

A couple of news cycles later we could be looking at a landslide election, but which way it goes is anyone's guess at this point.

[STT]

The subprime debt rating failure was paid to play, its profitable to be incorrect in that case.   The losses did not land on the rating agencies and so you could say they never made a mistake it was deliberate corruption and accepted by all parties as par for the course.   To complain afterwards is quite pointless and in any case the rating agencies are continuing the same mistake with various other debt, its too big of an argument to go over and as said some will argue it is all correct.   Government distorts free markets, thats deliberate and an intended mistake and an ongoing trend.   It does tie into politics but I dont think any candidate or either party is going to alter this dynamic.   Trump is desperately trying to grasp that underdog play, to criticise others as responsible and thats all unwinding as nonsense when he is in office.
  

the pollster who predicted a 99% chance for clinton was an idiot

He made a mistake on purpose, I wont call him an idiot as it was a sentiment call.   Really important to note when items like this pop up, not to dismiss them but they matter because they reflect a wider body in the population.   So the same thing can definitely occur now in these political bets or sports betting it happens or lots of different gambles, people forget anything can happen and I think its just human nature.    In BTC its happening all the time, we cant go down now is an absolute curse of a sentence to write in any thread about prices

[bbc.reporter]

However, who creates the results of these polls? I am very skeptical. The ratings agencies were paid to rate subprime loans as AAA or AA during the 2008 housing bubble.

these are the same pollsters who said trump's numbers were skyrocketing in march and early april. as discussed earlier, pollsters in the 2016 election were stuck in an elitist bubble, ignoring non-coastal cities and rural america. after their monumental failure in that election, i think they've mostly corrected for those shortcomings.

and with public sentiment turning against trump, punters are turning against him too. betfair has biden at 52% and trump at 42% now. that seems to reflect the most recent polls, which suggest trump's approval rating is plunging:



there is other tangible stuff too. i mentioned earlier about how trump is alienating religious conservatives. well, he is now obviously alienating prominent republicans, who are breaking ranks in increasing numbers: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/06/us/politics/trump-biden-republicans-voters.html

george bush and mitt romney came out saying they don't support trump, colin powell (bush SOS) said he is voting for biden and made a scathing public rebuke of trump. heavyweights like ryan, boehner, and murkowski refuse to publicly say whether they will be voting for trump because they know endorsing him now is a political disaster waiting to happen. trump is goddamn dumpster fire.

In any case, what is the situation on the riots in America? Is it escalating? This might be something everyone should read and think on how unpredictable the future might be.

rioting has calmed down but the protests continue. many curfews have been lifted since the recent protests have been more peaceful.

This might be a good chance to bet for republican as the presidential winning party hehe. There are 4 more months before we reach November. Similar to the news from 4 months ago, we have already forgotten most of those issues.

It is a premature time to dismiss the republicans, I reckon.

[STT]

I thought this was too good not to post, every other president on this list who had the same approval rating at this stage of the cycle was not returned to office.



I really think he would have won it otherwise but this year was a test and its not been passed so far though things can still change yet.  

https://us.cnn.com/2020/06/08/politics/murkowski-collins-mattis-trump/index.html

[coinfinger]

The big difference between pollsters and bookies is that bookies are talking from money perspective, who people would put money into for a bet, I would say they would do it even bigger for Hillary back in 2016 (didn't check odds back those days) because it was looked much better, risking your money and who you are voting are different, you may like Trump but think Biden will win and bet on Biden but vote for Trump. That is why you could see some differences between those two results.

Polls are naturally not trustworthy because you ask at most 10-20 thousand people (usually a lot less) and hope to guess what 120+ million would vote.

[tyz]

are you saying pollsters are exaggerating trump's chances of winning this time?

Irony? What I meant to say was that one should not trust the current poll results in which Trump is extremely losing.
Only a few months ago, he was ahead in most polls. According to current polls, he comes to 36-38% (lost around 1/3 of its voters), and constantly falling. Of course, this may well have something to do with his poor management of the Corona crisis and his unsuccessful appearance in last weeks, but I think it will not hurt him so negatively as so many questionable actions/behaviour have shown in the years before. That's why I think that currents polls does not reflect the actual situation.

[Vishnu.Reang]

For me, it looks as if Trump's ratings have reached rock bottom. In the coming months, there may be some improvement. I am saying this because the situation is slowly improving in the United States (at least when compared to the other countries such as Mexico and Brazil). The number of new cases and deaths are declining sharply and this can give a boost to Trump in the coming months.

[BitcoinASH16]

I think it's all about timing. When Kamala Harris is added to the Democratic ticket she will propel Biden to victory in November.

[babygun]

For me, it looks as if Trump's ratings have reached rock bottom. In the coming months, there may be some improvement. I am saying this because the situation is slowly improving in the United States (at least when compared to the other countries such as Mexico and Brazil). The number of new cases and deaths are declining sharply and this can give a boost to Trump in the coming months.

Number of cases and deaths are dropping in US, but is this thanks to Trump? Thanks to the bad approach of Trump, the US has been hit very high by corona...
But people tend to forget quickly, so we will see what happens to Trump.

[johhnyUA]

Number of cases and deaths are dropping in US, but is this thanks to Trump? Thanks to the bad approach of Trump, the US has been hit very high by corona...
But people tend to forget quickly, so we will see what happens to Trump.

I think nothing will happen, in meaning of Trump election. There only 13 % of young people is black people (anti trumpists) and the most part of middle class people age 40 is for Trump. And that's irony, but mostly this part of people are going to vote. Young "zoomers" will just skip this day and will still butthurt about Trump in twitter

[Vishnu.Reang]

I think it's all about timing. When Kamala Harris is added to the Democratic ticket she will propel Biden to victory in November.

Dude, are you serious? Komla is too far to the left and she will take moderate votes away from Biden. IMO, Biden should nominate a moderate woman of color as the VP candidate. Either a Hispanic, or an African American.

For me, it looks as if Trump's ratings have reached rock bottom. In the coming months, there may be some improvement. I am saying this because the situation is slowly improving in the United States (at least when compared to the other countries such as Mexico and Brazil). The number of new cases and deaths are declining sharply and this can give a boost to Trump in the coming months.

Number of cases and deaths are dropping in US, but is this thanks to Trump? Thanks to the bad approach of Trump, the US has been hit very high by corona...
But people tend to forget quickly, so we will see what happens to Trump.

I never said that. I never said that the number of cases are dropping in the US thanks to Trump. I would rather attribute it to the hard work done by various mayors and governors. But it is a fact that if the infection levels drop, it will help Trump during the polls.

[Saint-loup]

Number of cases and deaths are dropping in US, but is this thanks to Trump? Thanks to the bad approach of Trump, the US has been hit very high by corona...
But people tend to forget quickly, so we will see what happens to Trump.

I think nothing will happen, in meaning of Trump election. There only 13 % of young people is black people (anti trumpists) and the most part of middle class people age 40 is for Trump. And that's irony, but mostly this part of people are going to vote. Young "zoomers" will just skip this day and will still butthurt about Trump in twitter

Your theory is a bit surprising since Trump didn't win his last election because of a majority of votes for him but only because of a majority of states.
Hillary Clinton beat him by three million votes.

[johhnyUA]

Your theory is a bit surprising since Trump didn't win his last election because of a majority of votes for him but only because of a majority of states.
Hillary Clinton beat him by three million votes.

Now i find that many people from who i know in USA that was against Trump at first, now is for him. Yep, with some qualifications, but they satisfied about tax changes, politics and so on.

And yeah, my theory is based on what happened to Bernie Sanders.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Your theory is a bit surprising since Trump didn't win his last election because of a majority of votes for him but only because of a majority of states.
Hillary Clinton beat him by three million votes.

This is not a correct argument. POTUS elections are decided on the basis of electoral college votes and not total votes. And these electoral college votes are assigned on the basis of population. So ideally there should not be any major deviation from the electoral college votes and total votes.

It's a fact that Hillary won more votes in 2016. But then, the population of deep blue states is much higher than that of deep red states, and we can assume that a lot of Republicans in deep blue states such as CA and NY never cared to vote.

[figmentofmyass]

A couple of news cycles later we could be looking at a landslide election, but which way it goes is anyone's guess at this point.

i agree that it's too early to read too much into anything at this point, but i think trump is setting himself up for political disaster by 1. banking too much on a fast economic recovery while delaying relief measures and 2. writing off the protests wholesale and showering praise on police, which simply disagrees with the majority of american opinion. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/500867-poll-majority-sympathetic-to-protesters-disapprove-of-trumps-response

i just get this impression that he's gonna keep doubling down on unpopular opinions/policies instead of listening to public opinion.

I think it's all about timing. When Kamala Harris is added to the Democratic ticket she will propel Biden to victory in November.

interesting speculation. i'm leaning towards kamala getting on the ticket too.

I think nothing will happen, in meaning of Trump election. There only 13 % of young people is black people (anti trumpists) and the most part of middle class people age 40 is for Trump.

it's mostly non-black people who are out protesting btw. 60-70% of americans sympathize with the protests depending on which poll you look at.

the big fear for trump and republicans is that younger voters will turn out in higher numbers now (and in general that turnout will be high). voter registration groups are seeing lots of engagement since the protests began and biden is rightly targeting younger voters in his ads. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/09/politics/voter-registration-protests/index.html

[johhnyUA]

I think nothing will happen, in meaning of Trump election. There only 13 % of young people is black people (anti trumpists) and the most part of middle class people age 40 is for Trump.

it's mostly non-black people who are out protesting btw. 60-70% of americans sympathize with the protests depending on which poll you look at.

the big fear for trump and republicans is that younger voters will turn out in higher numbers now (and in general that turnout will be high). voter registration groups are seeing lots of engagement since the protests began and biden is rightly targeting younger voters in his ads. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/09/politics/voter-registration-protests/index.html

Supporting protest against cops and racism doesn't mean supporting anti Trump campaign. But yeah, you're definitely right about young people, which will be against Trump. Their problem was that they mostly avoided election day, but maybe if online voting will appear, they will change everything to Biden. But i'm still betting on Trump.

[bbc.reporter]

I thought this was too good not to post, every other president on this list who had the same approval rating at this stage of the cycle was not returned to office.



I really think he would have won it otherwise but this year was a test and its not been passed so far though things can still change yet.  

https://us.cnn.com/2020/06/08/politics/murkowski-collins-mattis-trump/index.html

That approval rating is only from CNN. CNN and the other mainstream media hate Trump from the beginning of his first campaign.

The other Trump approval ratings are more than 40%.

Source https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_approval_rating

The big difference between pollsters and bookies is that bookies are talking from money perspective, who people would put money into for a bet, I would say they would do it even bigger for Hillary back in 2016 (didn't check odds back those days) because it was looked much better, risking your money and who you are voting are different, you may like Trump but think Biden will win and bet on Biden but vote for Trump. That is why you could see some differences between those two results.

Polls are naturally not trustworthy because you ask at most 10-20 thousand people (usually a lot less) and hope to guess what 120+ million would vote.

The sportsbooks and the pollsters had Hillary more as a certainty on 2016 than Biden for 2020.