US Presidential Election 2020

[mindrust]

It's better to ask "who fit better modern USA, Trump or Biden?"

Neither but since people in the US have to make a choice between these 2 guys, I think Trump fits better but that's only my opinion as an outsider.

Trump was a better fit than Hillary too.

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[figmentofmyass]

why me? i'm no expert.

another run to 2.9-3 seems possible, but certainly not guaranteed. i don't think we'll get any better than that. i think the current odds are pretty good value, considering the fact that i still consider trump a slight favorite and definitely no worse than 50-50.

I remember that we talked about this before, and i remember that you was waiting for some "better odds for Trump" so i asked you is 2.65 is enough good 

ah, yeah, i previously thought 3.33-4 was possible, during all the chaos with the george floyd protests and fears about a second wave of coronavirus. i think betfair ended up topping out around 3.00. i'm now guessing that was the best odds we'll see. the pendulum has been swinging against trump for months now......it's bound to swing back in his favor soon, and with 3 months until the election, the timing couldn't be better for him.

[tyz]

The next election oracle has made its decision: Alan Lichtman, a history professor, predicts that Trump will lose in 2020. He was one of the less psephologists who predicted Trump's election 2016 correctly. He has developed a decision scheme by defining whether someone wins or loses the election. He has been successful with this since 1984, with one exception in 2000 when he was wrong (the CNN headline is misleading).

Source: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/07/us/allan-lichtman-trump-biden-2020-trnd/index.html

[Vishnu.Reang]

Biden is a weak candidate. A lot weaker than Hillary. If Trump loses this, it is because Trump loses, not because Biden wins.

I still predict Trump to win though. He is simply a better candidate no matter how stupid he is.

Biden may be a "weak" candidate. He may not sanction very aggressive actions, as Trump has done against China and Iran. In this regard, you can even say Trump is stronger than Biden. But at the same time, the question here is whether Trump is a "better" candidate when compared to Biden. In my opinion he is not. Look at the federal debt. Check the levels in 2016, when Trump came to power and the level now (actually this was one of his campaign promises). He has fared poorly in almost every sector - employment, foreign policy, healthcare.etc.

[STT]

Biden is not a strong candidate I will agree to that but I dont count him negatively at all.   He lacks the message and cohesive kind of leadership people really rally to at times and covid could be one of those times people could get behind a stronger candidate.   Its something to consider in Trumps favour I suppose, obviously some people are going to spit out their drink at reading that but to some people Trump does represent this.   The thing that really disturbs me is how Trump is desperate to stir the pot to create that image or thats my impression, the troubles with China and so on is an attempt to project an enemy and defeat it but the greatest tasks at hand imo are internal and administrative.

Biden is a weak candidate. A lot weaker than Hillary.

This is personal perspective really but Hillary really upset quite a few voters for various reasons.   I dont have to rate Biden as any better, he just has to upset less people and it could be enough to qualify as more popular.     It appears we dont have any new emergence in demographics to voting so again the bias will be to older voters, who recognise Biden positively thats in his favour.    All the complicated theories and interpretations probably dont count as much as a consensus impression across important sections of the voters especially in some key areas or states that can go either way.
    Just simply it could be that he smiles more then Hilary or in some way appears to be more genuine even while making mistakes.  Im fairly sure someone who cant sell themselves as at least believing in their own words just rubs people up the wrong way and it adds up in voting.   I'll say this on a number of topics but the simplest factors can matter the most and when we're considering an entire population I will argue this will be true in 2020.
   The best chance any bettor has to be accurate is probably by gaining an unbiased view -politics on the candidate saleability or personal appeal each has.   If they dont capture their own people and gain their faith what chance do they have.

Trump came to power and the level now (actually this was one of his campaign promises)

He seems to be famous for this but does anyone care at least from his own voters is it enough to change their vote.    Federal debt has been rising for years, its over 100% GDP now I think which is dangerous for any country but if this is a trend for twenty years are they going to especially alter votes now over this issue.  Its too big a topic but QE allows this issue to be hidden in effect from voters imo, they dont feel the problem exactly.

[figmentofmyass]

trump's chances are improving, up to 38% per betfair. i have a feeling this trend will continue.

Biden is a weak candidate. A lot weaker than Hillary.

This is personal perspective really but Hillary really upset quite a few voters for various reasons.  

another way of saying someone is a "strong" candidate is to say they are polarizing. hillary was extremely polarizing. so is trump. this is not necessarily a good thing, since it fires up voters in the opposing party. another angle to view this---biden is less hated than trump. this may become important with older voters and principled conservatives, who seem to be growing tired of trump's antics.

[bbc.reporter]

@figmentofmyass. I hope it worsens before I make the bet hehehe.

Also, about the mail in ballots, who runs and works in the United States Postal Service? There was an article about it that 70% of USPS workers are Republicans.

[Mauser]

trump's chances are improving, up to 38% per betfair. i have a feeling this trend will continue.

Biden is a weak candidate. A lot weaker than Hillary.

This is personal perspective really but Hillary really upset quite a few voters for various reasons.  

another way of saying someone is a "strong" candidate is to say they are polarizing. hillary was extremely polarizing. so is trump. this is not necessarily a good thing, since it fires up voters in the opposing party. another angle to view this---biden is less hated than trump. this may become important with older voters and principled conservatives, who seem to be growing tired of trump's antics.

I am not sure if it's now the time to bet on Trump already, I saw his chances are going up. But is this really his lowpoint? I kind of expected Corona to worsen and then see Turmps chances even lower. With only 2,5 months left till November I am not sure when to get my bets down. Also don't forget there where very bad things happening with Hillary like here security issues with emails - so far Biden is in a better position.

[Vishnu.Reang]

trump's chances are improving, up to 38% per betfair. i have a feeling this trend will continue.

Biden is a weak candidate. A lot weaker than Hillary.

This is personal perspective really but Hillary really upset quite a few voters for various reasons.  

another way of saying someone is a "strong" candidate is to say they are polarizing. hillary was extremely polarizing. so is trump. this is not necessarily a good thing, since it fires up voters in the opposing party. another angle to view this---biden is less hated than trump. this may become important with older voters and principled conservatives, who seem to be growing tired of trump's antics.

No matter how much "principled" an elderly conservative voter is, he would never vote for someone like Biden. If Biden becomes the president, then he is likely to nominate ultra-liberal judges to the supreme court (similar to Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan). And this was one of the main issues which ensured a near-total conservative support for Trump in 2016.

[yazher]

I am not sure if it's now the time to bet on Trump already, I saw his chances are going up. But is this really his lowpoint? I kind of expected Corona to worsen and then see Turmps chances even lower. With only 2,5 months left till November I am not sure when to get my bets down. Also don't forget there where very bad things happening with Hillary like here security issues with emails - so far Biden is in a better position.

I am not pretty sure if Trump will gonna get the same luck as he got last US election. Because last time, his opponent was only a woman which is impossible to win in the first place since there hasn't been in the history of US election that a woman became a president of the United States of America. Now Trump gonna face Biden which has the same level regarding popularity to him. I wonder if he is going to have the chance to win this election as well since I always see some memes nowadays telling about his foolish administration.

[babo]

I am not pretty sure if Trump will gonna get the same luck as he got last US election. Because last time, his opponent was only a woman which is impossible to win in the first place since there hasn't been in the history of US election that a woman became a president of the United States of America. Now Trump gonna face Biden which has the same level regarding popularity to him. I wonder if he is going to have the chance to win this election as well since I always see some memes nowadays telling about his foolish administration.

isnt luck, is aggressive marketing campaign.. do you forgot cambridge analityca?
i'm not

and now, today, the COVID virus and all people death, claim a different point of view
of course, in my humble opinion

because death matter..

[figmentofmyass]

No matter how much "principled" an elderly conservative voter is, he would never vote for someone like Biden. If Biden becomes the president, then he is likely to nominate ultra-liberal judges to the supreme court (similar to Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan). And this was one of the main issues which ensured a near-total conservative support for Trump in 2016.

meh. biden is a total centrist, not a progressive. i also don't think supreme court appointments are/were a primary factor. the 2016 election was about populism, the "drain the swamp" mentality, and posturing on immigration and trade protectionism.

GWB's secretary of state colin powell has endorsed biden. GWB and mitt romney won't vote for trump. john bolton and a slew of other high ranking republican officials have defected, as well as prominent conservative commentators like bill kristol. stuff like https://rvat.org/ makes me really question this idea that republicans/conservatives couldn't be disgusted by trump enough to stop supporting him. and that's the key---biden doesn't need to flip 2016 trump voters. he just needs to keep them from coming out in strong numbers again.

we saw way more republican unity in the 2016 election. i dunno that this fracturing is enough to break trump in 2020, but when people act like it's still 2016 and trump is still running against hillary, as if the last 4 years never happened.....i'm skeptical. that attitude reeks of the blinders hillary voters had on in 2016.

[Vishnu.Reang]

No matter how much "principled" an elderly conservative voter is, he would never vote for someone like Biden. If Biden becomes the president, then he is likely to nominate ultra-liberal judges to the supreme court (similar to Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan). And this was one of the main issues which ensured a near-total conservative support for Trump in 2016.

meh. biden is a total centrist, not a progressive. i also don't think supreme court appointments are/were a primary factor. the 2016 election was about populism, the "drain the swamp" mentality, and posturing on immigration and trade protectionism.

GWB's secretary of state colin powell has endorsed biden. GWB and mitt romney won't vote for trump. john bolton and a slew of other high ranking republican officials have defected, as well as prominent conservative commentators like bill kristol. stuff like https://rvat.org/ makes me really question this idea that republicans/conservatives couldn't be disgusted by trump enough to stop supporting him. and that's the key---biden doesn't need to flip 2016 trump voters. he just needs to keep them from coming out in strong numbers again.

we saw way more republican unity in the 2016 election. i dunno that this fracturing is enough to break trump in 2020, but when people act like it's still 2016 and trump is still running against hillary, as if the last 4 years never happened.....i'm skeptical. that attitude reeks of the blinders hillary voters had on in 2016.

Hmm.. this may be true. The enthusiasm is clearly lacking in the GOP camp, at lest when compared to the 2016 scenario. I won't comment much on either Mitt Romney or George W Bush, because these two are pretty insignificant in the American political landscape as of now. And even in 2016, they were not very enthusiastic about having Donald Trump as the GOP presidential nominee.

[tyKiwanuka]

Biden has selected his running mate and judging by the odds movements (there are always people with some insider information), it will be Susan Rice - he will announce it later today, lets see. Unfortunately I can't access the Betfair charts (if someone can, please post a screenshot here), but in the last screenshot I took end of July, Rice was 5+. In a screenshot from April, she isn't visible so must have been 30+. Good bet missed

Edit: Well he picked Harris actually

[wiss19]

Well the risky thing is, Trump managed to let corona hit the country hard and when you check most of the people who died was from the democrat states and that means more democrat voters died than republicans. Now that is strike one.

Secondly he is against mail in voting and he is doing everything in his power to stop that, including hiring someone for postal service that will cut everyone out and make it impossible for nation to calculate the mail in votes correctly. That is strike two.

Lastly Biden hasn't been active at all, dude just shuts up and waits for Trump to lose, while trump even said "he doesn't care if Russia is trying to reelect him" as in he is not helping them or working with them but also doesn't care and won't stop them. Strike three. So at the end, I think it will be unfair elections that Trump will steal, which could give republicans so much power that nobody could say he won't try for a third time and face absolutely no problems since he controls everything and everyone who is in charge that could stop him.

[figmentofmyass]

Biden has selected his running mate and judging by the odds movements (there are always people with some insider information), it will be Susan Rice - he will announce it later today, lets see. Unfortunately I can't access the Betfair charts (if someone can, please post a screenshot here), but in the last screenshot I took end of July, Rice was 5+. In a screenshot from April, she isn't visible so must have been 30+. Good bet missed

Edit: Well he picked Harris actually

lol. unsurprisingly kamala was the bet to take all along---good in the 2s, still good at sub-2. never much doubt in my mind.

Lastly Biden hasn't been active at all, dude just shuts up and waits for Trump to lose

judging by the 2016 election, that's probably a smart move. hillary's ego was part of her downfall.

[STT]

impossible to win

Some of the worlds largest democracies have had women leaders voted in, this would be more a commentary on USA as a democratic country then if that was what you meant.    Literally it seems to be a reality if theres a female VP on the ticket for one of the two likely party winners.
    Russia having a vaccine apparent seems to be the biggest news I've heard today that should have an effect on the voting and possible odds, that does change quite alot depending on the quality and quantity of production possible.  I've interested in the candidate views on this as its quite pivotal imo.


Biden does a burnout  

[bbc.reporter]

Biden has selected his running mate and judging by the odds movements (there are always people with some insider information), it will be Susan Rice - he will announce it later today, lets see. Unfortunately I can't access the Betfair charts (if someone can, please post a screenshot here), but in the last screenshot I took end of July, Rice was 5+. In a screenshot from April, she isn't visible so must have been 30+. Good bet missed

Edit: Well he picked Harris actually

I am very disappointed. I thought my prediction and analysis were becoming a certainty hehehe. Also after the news articles about Kamala Harris unfollowed Biden on Twitter, I was already counting my money before holding it.

[Vishnu.Reang]

I am very disappointed. I thought my prediction and analysis were becoming a certainty hehehe. Also after the news articles about Kamala Harris unfollowed Biden on Twitter, I was already counting my money before holding it.

Biden doesn't want to repeat the same mistakes which were done by Hillary in 2016. He knows that he needs to ensure a good turnout from the Democrat supporters. As of now, Harris is the most popular African American leader and may help him in many of the crucial states such as Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Personally, I would have preferred a Hispanic or an Asian as the VP pick.

[erikoy]

I am very disappointed. I thought my prediction and analysis were becoming a certainty hehehe. Also after the news articles about Kamala Harris unfollowed Biden on Twitter, I was already counting my money before holding it.

Biden doesn't want to repeat the same mistakes which were done by Hillary in 2016. He knows that he needs to ensure a good turnout from the Democrat supporters. As of now, Harris is the most popular African American leader and may help him in many of the crucial states such as Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Personally, I would have preferred a Hispanic or an Asian as the VP pick.

Asian would do good if it holds a position in the government for they are known hardworking and has the initiative when it comes to good leadership and decision making. PDuterte of the Philippines is one good example of an asian with good leadership. Anyway, Biden should also avoid on getting possible mistakes like what happen on 2016. If Biden really win in this election then I can say that people really chose him over