US Presidential Election 2020

[Vishnu.Reang]

This 40-45% looks to have some value. In 2016 Trump had 46.1%, Hillary 48.2%.

This time the gap is going to be much wider. And in 2016, third party candidates hurt Hillary much more than Trump. Gary Johnson got 3.28% and Jill Stein polled 1.07%. Johnson got his votes in deep red states such as ND, AK, OK and deep blue states such as NM. But Stein got her votes in swing states. There is still no clarity about the third part candidates for POTUS 2020. They can have a huge impact on the fortunes of both Trump and Biden.

[Betwrong]

Several months ago on freebitco.in, where you could choose from several options: Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris and Others, I placed my bet on "Others"(with some amazing outcome odds back then, and now they are 18.93, not that bad either).

But today I think it's obvious that Trump is going to win the elections. Well, it's not 100%, but 95% I'd say. And that's why I will probably not make another bet on this event. I hate betting with the outcome odds less than 2.00. First off, it's too painful to lose such a bet; secondly, you can't win much in the case of winning.

[Tipstar]

Several months ago on freebitco.in, where you could choose from several options: Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris and Others, I placed my bet on "Others"(with some amazing outcome odds back then, and now they are 18.93, not that bad either).

But today I think it's obvious that Trump is going to win the elections. Well, it's not 100%, but 95% I'd say. And that's why I will probably not make another bet on this event. I hate betting with the outcome odds less than 2.00. First off, it's too painful to lose such a bet; secondly, you can't win much in the case of winning.

With the pathetic approach to handling coronavirus crisis, from denying to blaming others, Trump is losing his approval at a higher rate. Democratic doesn't have any face to stand against Trump but the situation may demand any face on presidency but trump. In such situation, even a not well known candidate may win the elections.

[tyKiwanuka]

But today I think it's obvious that Trump is going to win the elections. Well, it's not 100%, but 95% I'd say.

That is quite a lot and would transfer to ~1.05 odds. I'll give you a value bet and offer 1.10 odds, you can stake any amount you want

I hate betting with the outcome odds less than 2.00. First off, it's too painful to lose such a bet; secondly, you can't win much in the case of winning.

But otoh you win more often with lower odds.


I honestly thought that all the happenings in the US would have some more impact on the presidential markets in general. Looks like whatever bad news there are, the odds are not really bothered with it. A little bit up and down, but nothing major. The economical consequences will fully show up at a later point, maybe starting in summer, and this will hopefully be the starting point for some new dynamics.

[Vishnu.Reang]

I honestly thought that all the happenings in the US would have some more impact on the presidential markets in general. Looks like whatever bad news there are, the odds are not really bothered with it. A little bit up and down, but nothing major. The economical consequences will fully show up at a later point, maybe starting in summer, and this will hopefully be the starting point for some new dynamics.

Yup... millions have lost their jobs during the last few weeks and the full impact will be felt sometime later. Most of the world leaders are witnessing a surge in their popularity ratings (Angela Merkel, Viktor Orban, Narendra Modi, Scott Morrison.etc), but I am not witnessing any similar spike for Trump. If the death toll does not stabilize within the next couple of weeks, then Trump will be toast.

[milewilda]

I honestly thought that all the happenings in the US would have some more impact on the presidential markets in general. Looks like whatever bad news there are, the odds are not really bothered with it. A little bit up and down, but nothing major. The economical consequences will fully show up at a later point, maybe starting in summer, and this will hopefully be the starting point for some new dynamics.

Yup... millions have lost their jobs during the last few weeks and the full impact will be felt sometime later. Most of the world leaders are witnessing a surge in their popularity ratings (Angela Merkel, Viktor Orban, Narendra Modi, Scott Morrison.etc), but I am not witnessing any similar spike for Trump. If the death toll does not stabilize within the next couple of weeks, then Trump will be toast.

Not really a precise thing for you to rely or presume on for it to affect Trump due to death toll but lets see on how this one goes.

But otoh you win more often with lower odds.

As usual but there are bettors who do really like to shoot their luck on bigger odds but most of the time, we can really pinpoint
that heavily favored would most likely to win.

[bbc.reporter]

Several months ago on freebitco.in, where you could choose from several options: Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris and Others, I placed my bet on "Others"(with some amazing outcome odds back then, and now they are 18.93, not that bad either).

But today I think it's obvious that Trump is going to win the elections. Well, it's not 100%, but 95% I'd say. And that's why I will probably not make another bet on this event. I hate betting with the outcome odds less than 2.00. First off, it's too painful to lose such a bet; secondly, you can't win much in the case of winning.

With the pathetic approach to handling coronavirus crisis, from denying to blaming others, Trump is losing his approval at a higher rate. Democratic doesn't have any face to stand against Trump but the situation may demand any face on presidency but trump. In such situation, even a not well known candidate may win the elections.

How was Trump's handling of the crisis pathetic? Is it because America is no.1 in cases? The are the highest because America is the fastest in testing people and have tested more people than any country. Stop listening to mainstream news media. They are the same mainstream news media that have said bitcoin is for criminals. They are liars.

Also, how would Trump win if his approval rating is down and his handling of the crisis is pathetic?

[TalkStar]

How was Trump's handling of the crisis pathetic? Is it because America is no.1 in cases? The are the highest because America is the fastest in testing people and have tested more people than any country. Stop listening to mainstream news media. They are the same mainstream news media that have said bitcoin is for criminals. They are liars.

Trumps opposition parties are trying to take the advantage of corona situation and its common in politics. Its true that american government were not well prepared for this pandemic but my question is; who were?. Italy, France, UK, Spain, Belgium, Iran all countries have same situation now but in comparison with others USA is doing much better to save their citizen. Its clearly proven now that entire world wasn’t prepare enough to tackle this crisis and its not the right time to play blame game.

I don’t think corona situation will make remarkable effects on Donald Trump's popularity but if he can handle current situation properly obviously it will be positive for sure. Atleast americans are not hiding news and real death cases like China  

[Gyfts]

Several months ago on freebitco.in, where you could choose from several options: Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris and Others, I placed my bet on "Others"(with some amazing outcome odds back then, and now they are 18.93, not that bad either).

But today I think it's obvious that Trump is going to win the elections. Well, it's not 100%, but 95% I'd say. And that's why I will probably not make another bet on this event. I hate betting with the outcome odds less than 2.00. First off, it's too painful to lose such a bet; secondly, you can't win much in the case of winning.

With the pathetic approach to handling coronavirus crisis, from denying to blaming others, Trump is losing his approval at a higher rate. Democratic doesn't have any face to stand against Trump but the situation may demand any face on presidency but trump. In such situation, even a not well known candidate may win the elections.

How was Trump's handling of the crisis pathetic? Is it because America is no.1 in cases? The are the highest because America is the fastest in testing people and have tested more people than any country. Stop listening to mainstream news media. They are the same mainstream news media that have said bitcoin is for criminals. They are liars.

Also, how would Trump win if his approval rating is down and his handling of the crisis is pathetic?

His handling of the crisis is dependent on what month you're talking about. You can't merely lump in 3 months, January, February, and March all together in one rating because each month warrants a separate discussion.

In January you had the WHO lying about the extent of coronavirus to the point where their counsel and advice was useless. China was heavily censoring their data and coronavirus had exceeded China's borders and were spreading around the Eastern hemisphere. The U.S, nor many other countries still did not understand the potency of coronavirus which is why countries did not close down their borders from incoming travel. The U.S took a step in the right direction by banning travel from all areas of China at the end of January which drew criticism from democrats. Nonetheless, it was a damn good move no matter what partisan hacks want to say about it. So Trump's response January was satisfactory.

February is where things fall apart. Trump's response to coronavirus in February ended at the travel ban from China. He did not implement any sort of action that would have mitigated the spread of the virus and in fact, continued to have campaign rallies. To be clear, not Trump nor any democrat (besides only a handful of exceptions) saw coronavirus as being a national crisis. No one had the foresight to predict the U.S. economy would collapse and that coronavirus would begin to kill thousands of people a day. However, I'm sure there were disease experts looking at coronavirus and advised the President on potential ramifications of coronavirus meaning actions that Trump should have taken include ramping up production of PPE, ventilators, and ensuring supply chain logistics could deal with a sudden influx of patients. Creating a pandemic task force and implementing loose social distancing measures are things that could have happened as well. No one is arguing that Trump should have shut down the entire U.S. economy in February. Realistically, you cannot shut down the world's largest economy based upon a few dozen deaths from an upper respiratory illness.

March is when Trump took measures seriously and coordinated a federal response to coronavirus which included national agencies working with states to mitigate spread. He established the coronavirus task force, and implemented CDC guidelines with the "30 Days to stop the spread" sentiment. According to Dr. Fauci, when he advised Trump about a national lock down predicament in March, he listened to the experts.


If we're criticizing Trump's response, I would focus February and I think it's fair to say that his response was pathetic in that month.

[Rosilito]

How was Trump's handling of the crisis pathetic? Is it because America is no.1 in cases? The are the highest because America is the fastest in testing people and have tested more people than any country. Stop listening to mainstream news media. They are the same mainstream news media that have said bitcoin is for criminals. They are liars.

Trumps opposition parties are trying to take the advantage of corona situation and its common in politics. Its true that american government were not well prepared for this pandemic but my question is; who were?. Italy, France, UK, Spain, Belgium, Iran all countries have same situation now but in comparison with others USA is doing much better to save their citizen. Its clearly proven now that entire world wasn’t prepare enough to tackle this crisis and its not the right time to play blame game.

Political interest once again. Numerous countries has the same problem even here in our country that no matter what good deed the authorities want to implement here there were be always an opposition from people against that person. And someone have already resignes from his position, and this might happen in US government if the self-interest would remain above the supposedly job.

I don’t think corona situation will make remarkable effects on Donald Trump's popularity but if he can handle current situation properly obviously it will be positive for sure. Atleast americans are not hiding news and real death cases like China  

I don't wanna be a racist as well but China's case is really something. This must be addressed, and investigated once everything are fine. So for now, we have to let it slide but someone have to keep an eye on it.

[TalkStar]

Political interest once again. Numerous countries has the same problem even here in our country that no matter what good deed the authorities want to implement here there were be always an opposition from people against that person.

Recently Trump administration made their final decision to stop their funding for World Health Organization (WHO) and i think there is enough reason for that. IMO there was enough lackings on WHO activities and they didn’t warn other countries after Covid19 first attack on China. Trump already described all the unprofessional works and mistakes of WHO on his recent speech. I don't think just giving regular speech and instructions is the only work for an Organization like them.  

And someone have already resignes from his position, and this might happen in US government if the self-interest would remain above the supposedly job.

Thats true and unfortunately politicians don't dare to cross all limits for their personal gain. Just not only in USA, its pretty much same on other regions too.

I don't wanna be a racist as well but China's case is really something. This must be addressed, and investigated once everything are fine. So for now, we have to let it slide but someone have to keep an eye on it.

Though its not the right time to go after them but it should be after entire human civilisation get safer from this pandemic. There is a lot of questions waiting for them and maybe china have got no proper answer.

[verita1]

I also agree that the WHO did not do its job well to alert world leaders that the Coronavirus was a deadly virus.

I still remember reading about Coronavirus in France.

https://www.clarin.com/mundo/coronavirus-pacientes-confirmados-francia-evolucionar-bien-gobierno-afirma-brote-controlado_0_9yC9eDmL.html

01/25/2020
"The three patients infected with the coronavirus in France" are doing well "and they all have in common having passed through the city of Wuhan, the center of the epidemic in China."

From what I see it was the same reaction that occurred in various parts of the world until the virus began to spread.

In what relates to the reelection of Trump. He can win reelection to the 2020 Presidency if he best defends the fight against Covid19. That is his best strategy to achieve the majority of the votes in the next elections.

[Betwrong]

But today I think it's obvious that Trump is going to win the elections. Well, it's not 100%, but 95% I'd say.

That is quite a lot and would transfer to ~1.05 odds. I'll give you a value bet and offer 1.10 odds, you can stake any amount you want
 

Well, first off, thank you, of course, for your offer! But, secondly, the outcome odds are 1.76 currently on freebitco.in, for example. And I'm not going to bet with those odds either because, as I said, I hate betting with odds less than 2.00.

I hate betting with the outcome odds less than 2.00. First off, it's too painful to lose such a bet; secondly, you can't win much in the case of winning.

But otoh you win more often with lower odds.

Maybe most people do, but not me, mainly because I rarely bet with such odds. I gamble for fun, not to earn money with it, and I think you agree that winning with higher odds is much more fun, right? And if you lose when betting on something very unlikely, you don't feel bad cos you were kind of expecting it.

~How was Trump's handling of the crisis pathetic? Is it because America is no.1 in cases? The are the highest because America is the fastest in testing people and have tested more people than any country. Stop listening to mainstream news media. They are the same mainstream news media that have said bitcoin is for criminals. They are liars.

Also, how would Trump win if his approval rating is down and his handling of the crisis is pathetic?

I agree with you on this part, and what's more important is that many Americans too. Look at  the president's approval rating below:

44% of approval is a good achievement for a sitting president in a democratic country.

[Vishnu.Reang]

44% of approval is a good achievement for a sitting president in a democratic country.

May be. But that is not the right way of looking in to it. Almost all the world leaders are witnessing a spike in their popularity ratings. For example, Angela Merkel was at rock bottom a few months back, and she has bounced back by quite a bit. But I can't witness any similar spike with the approval ratings for Donald Trump. And we need to remember that the pandemic in the United States is likely to get worse in the coming weeks. Another 6 months to go for the elections, and Trump is in for a disastrous re-run. It's going to be a no-contest. Perhaps the most lopsided POTUS elections the US ever had.

[casperBGD]

44% of approval is a good achievement for a sitting president in a democratic country.

yeah, it is a great result, and the crisis is known to influence better rating for the president, in any crisis, in any country, so this is expected that due to corona, no matter response people are more attached to the government, since they are dependent on the government for help, and president is more on tv giving statements and similar

[Betwrong]

44% of approval is a good achievement for a sitting president in a democratic country.

May be. But that is not the right way of looking in to it. Almost all the world leaders are witnessing a spike in their popularity ratings. For example, Angela Merkel was at rock bottom a few months back, and she has bounced back by quite a bit. But I can't witness any similar spike with the approval ratings for Donald Trump. And we need to remember that the pandemic in the United States is likely to get worse in the coming weeks. Another 6 months to go for the elections, and Trump is in for a disastrous re-run. It's going to be a no-contest. Perhaps the most lopsided POTUS elections the US ever had.

We might have thought that it could depend on when the pandemic ends. But let's analyze the situation a bit.

If by November all this COVID-19 disaster will start fading in history(which is very likely), the approval rating of Trump will rise as never before, and, surely, he'll be elected again.

Now let's think of what could happen if the situation was worsening. As @casperBGD has rightly pointed out, in a time of a crisis, president's rating usually is on the rise, in any country. I think it has something to do with people's psychology: the last thing people want when things are f*cked up already is a big change at the top of their government, and that's why they, maybe even instinctively, support their current president.

In short, I think Trump's chances of not being elected have been shrinking month by month.

[semobo]

44% of approval is a good achievement for a sitting president in a democratic country.

yeah, it is a great result, and the crisis is known to influence better rating for the president, in any crisis, in any country, so this is expected that due to corona, no matter response people are more attached to the government, since they are dependent on the government for help, and president is more on tv giving statements and similar

More they are listening then more chance he is getting elected again so Trump is doing well since he is better businessman than a leader.

And recently he temporarily suspended the immigrants to tackle the unemployment rate of their own citizens which will surely create a better look from middle class affected persons.

[bbc.reporter]

Several months ago on freebitco.in, where you could choose from several options: Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris and Others, I placed my bet on "Others"(with some amazing outcome odds back then, and now they are 18.93, not that bad either).

But today I think it's obvious that Trump is going to win the elections. Well, it's not 100%, but 95% I'd say. And that's why I will probably not make another bet on this event. I hate betting with the outcome odds less than 2.00. First off, it's too painful to lose such a bet; secondly, you can't win much in the case of winning.

With the pathetic approach to handling coronavirus crisis, from denying to blaming others, Trump is losing his approval at a higher rate. Democratic doesn't have any face to stand against Trump but the situation may demand any face on presidency but trump. In such situation, even a not well known candidate may win the elections.

How was Trump's handling of the crisis pathetic? Is it because America is no.1 in cases? The are the highest because America is the fastest in testing people and have tested more people than any country. Stop listening to mainstream news media. They are the same mainstream news media that have said bitcoin is for criminals. They are liars.

Also, how would Trump win if his approval rating is down and his handling of the crisis is pathetic?

His handling of the crisis is dependent on what month you're talking about. You can't merely lump in 3 months, January, February, and March all together in one rating because each month warrants a separate discussion.

In January you had the WHO lying about the extent of coronavirus to the point where their counsel and advice was useless. China was heavily censoring their data and coronavirus had exceeded China's borders and were spreading around the Eastern hemisphere. The U.S, nor many other countries still did not understand the potency of coronavirus which is why countries did not close down their borders from incoming travel. The U.S took a step in the right direction by banning travel from all areas of China at the end of January which drew criticism from democrats. Nonetheless, it was a damn good move no matter what partisan hacks want to say about it. So Trump's response January was satisfactory.

February is where things fall apart. Trump's response to coronavirus in February ended at the travel ban from China. He did not implement any sort of action that would have mitigated the spread of the virus and in fact, continued to have campaign rallies. To be clear, not Trump nor any democrat (besides only a handful of exceptions) saw coronavirus as being a national crisis. No one had the foresight to predict the U.S. economy would collapse and that coronavirus would begin to kill thousands of people a day. However, I'm sure there were disease experts looking at coronavirus and advised the President on potential ramifications of coronavirus meaning actions that Trump should have taken include ramping up production of PPE, ventilators, and ensuring supply chain logistics could deal with a sudden influx of patients. Creating a pandemic task force and implementing loose social distancing measures are things that could have happened as well. No one is arguing that Trump should have shut down the entire U.S. economy in February. Realistically, you cannot shut down the world's largest economy based upon a few dozen deaths from an upper respiratory illness.

March is when Trump took measures seriously and coordinated a federal response to coronavirus which included national agencies working with states to mitigate spread. He established the coronavirus task force, and implemented CDC guidelines with the "30 Days to stop the spread" sentiment. According to Dr. Fauci, when he advised Trump about a national lock down predicament in March, he listened to the experts.


If we're criticizing Trump's response, I would focus February and I think it's fair to say that his response was pathetic in that month.

However, Trump was taking he coronavirus seriously from the beginning. On February, he ordered that some of the flights from China should be cancelled. This was against the advice of his advisers on health care.

What was he called by mainstream media after the order? Yes, a racist.

[Vishnu.Reang]

However, Trump was taking he coronavirus seriously from the beginning. On February, he ordered that some of the flights from China should be cancelled. This was against the advice of his advisers on health care.

What was he called by mainstream media after the order? Yes, a racist.

There are arguments both in favor and against Trump in this subject. It is true that he stopped the flights from China against the advice of the experts. But at the same time, he delayed the lockdown measures until it was too late. And on top of that, I am surprised by his trust on Hydroxychloroquine, which according to the medical experts have not yet proven to be effective against COVID 19.

[tyKiwanuka]

A little update from the odds/betting front after ~3 weeks upon opening this thread - we are more or less back at where we started. The situation in the US is all but under control from my outside view. They represent a bit above 4% of the world population, but account for 25% of total deaths during this crisis (the EU is not doing any better btw). Like in so many countries, the situation is a bit chaotic regarding measures and loosening them again and each region has to fight their own war to a certain extent. Some states in the US play a risky game (just like Sweden), but maybe they will come out on top, if that term is appropriate in this matter.

So the betting market for the next US President looked like this some 3 weeks ago:

Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128151441

This is how it looks today:


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128151441

Not a lot of changes. Trump was already below 2.00 and Cuomo touched 70, but came down to below 50 again. Hillary's chances still seem to be somewhat liked by the market and even though Sanders abandoned his campaign, his odds not even doubled.

Apart from New York City some weeks ago, the health care system seems to be able to deal with this crisis - there are enough ventilators, enough PPE, enough staff. Warmer weather should help a little bit as well and doctors should gain more and more expertise how to treat patients properly. What is still unknown, are the economical consequences and their longterm effects on Trumps presidential run. This could be the deciding factor for the election.


Does any of you guys think, that a rumoured death of Kim Jong-un could have any impact ? I think he is in fact dead, because such rumours often hold some truth. This could lead to interesting developments in North Korea, which Trump could use to his advantage. Opinions ?