US Presidential Election 2020

[Vishnu.Reang]

Trump has no chance of winning if we see how he has handled the current situation but you will not know the result until it comes. also, these people will not suspend the election amidst the Corona Pandemic crisis because they have different settings of voting. you don't need to go out from your home to vote for your desirable candidate if I'm not mistaken you only need to vote with your phone. unlike in our country, you need to go to the specified places to vote. where you will be gathered with all of the people which will make things worse because there will be no social distancing anymore.

No. That's wrong info as far as I know. In the United States, voting using the smartphone is not allowed. You need to request for the absentee ballot, in case you can't vote during the election day. Then you need to send the ballot back to the counting office, by mail. And that's why I believe that this time the voter turnout is going to be very low. Now the question is, which of the two major candidates may get more impacted by that.

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[tyz]

You win/lose the election in October/November, not in June, and I expect him to go full blast in his typical manner then - with an economy in uptrend again (I don't believe in a second Corona wave) and a more uniting approach for the United States of America.

there are too many big variables at present, one of which is the economy/coronavirus. with infections, hospitalizations, and deaths on the rise (which will probably spike even more given recent reopenings and protests) i expect new shelter-in-place/social distancing orders in the summer or fall. after all, those decisions are up to state governors (who are much more concerned about public health than trump) and not the federal government. i think the economy and markets might take a shit at the worst possible time for trump, in the heat of election season.

in any case i'm definitely taking the trump bet if he starts getting priced like 2016. we're nowhere near there yet.

Agree to both of you. There is another factor which could play an important role this time: China. According to current surveys negative views of China continues to grow in the USA, among Republicans and Democrats. Two thirds of Americans are unfavorable to China, the highest number since decades. Trump is known for his negative attitude towards China, while Biden is considered to be more China-friendly. If Trump bets on this card and takes advantage of it, it could bring voters on his side.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Agree to both of you. There is another factor which could play an important role this time: China. According to current surveys negative views of China continues to grow in the USA, among Republicans and Democrats. Two thirds of Americans are unfavorable to China, the highest number since decades. Trump is known for his negative attitude towards China, while Biden is considered to be more China-friendly. If Trump bets on this card and takes advantage of it, it could bring voters on his side.

I don't know how many of the voters would be swayed by the China issue, unless there is a major physical confrontation involving both the United States Armed Forces and the PLA. At the most 1% or 2% of the voters may treat this issue as important. And I don't agree with your finding that Biden is more China-friendly. And even if there is such an assumption, then the Democrats know how to deal with it.

[verita1]

The Trump campaign will have its first Rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma after three months since the coronavirus crisis.
Tulsa's officials think the rally would cause a new outbreak. In recent days, due to the protest over the death of George Floyd, an increase in infected people have been observed. Although the Trump team says it will offer participants masks, antibacterial gel and take their temperature. The authorities disagree. I think that if Trump listened to all the governors of the nation and was concerned with reducing the new cases of coronavirus, that would be a good campaign to win the preference of the vote for his reelection.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/16/us/politics/trump-coronavirus-rally.html

[tyKiwanuka]

These new accusations from John Bolton against Trump are really funny, if true

According to Bolton, Trump, among other issues, .....

• asked Xi for help to getting re-elected
• often acts with gut feeling and ignorance in foreign affairs
• was once asking, if Finland belongs to Russia
• didn't know that UK had the bomb
• seriously considered leaving the NATO

Now we don't know what is really true about that all and I think such things do not only happen in US/Trump. Thats why they all have advisors and big staff to take care of them - without them, lots of leaders would be lost imo

Trump of course called all that bs in TV and on his Twitter account:


Source: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1273468029712707584

I would miss Trump, if he doesn't get re-elected, for entertainment purposes, it's a good show. Sometimes reminds me of the drama inside this forum.

[Vishnu.Reang]

These new accusations from John Bolton against Trump are really funny, if true

According to Bolton, Trump, among other issues, .....

• asked Xi for help to getting re-elected
• often acts with gut feeling and ignorance in foreign affairs
• was once asking, if Finland belongs to Russia
• didn't know that UK had the bomb
• seriously considered leaving the NATO

Don't have a very good opinion about John Bolton. But that said, I won't be much surprised even if some of these allegations are proven to be true. First of all, Trump doesn't have any experience in politics. He became the most powerful person on the planet, just because the Democrats put up a candidate who was extremely unelectable. He is a good businessman, but a bad politician.

[Darkoth89]

[...]

I would miss Trump, if he doesn't get re-elected, for entertainment purposes, it's a good show. Sometimes reminds me of the drama inside this forum.

Actually, I was amused when he was elected in 2016. Mainly I was glad that it wasn't Hillary Clinton who won, but I was keen to see how he'd mix up the American politics. But I couldn't have imagined how incompetent he really is as a politician. From these Bolton accusations you listed, not a single one surprises me! Okay, maybe a bit that he openly asked Xi for help to get re-elected but his ignorance in foreign affairs and that he does whatever comes to his mind? That's really nothing new!

And even though a second term of Trump would definitely be something entertaining, I would be glad without it. An unpredictable US is absolutely not what the world needs right now.

[babygun]

These new accusations from John Bolton against Trump are really funny, if true

According to Bolton, Trump, among other issues, .....

• asked Xi for help to getting re-elected
• often acts with gut feeling and ignorance in foreign affairs
• was once asking, if Finland belongs to Russia
• didn't know that UK had the bomb
• seriously considered leaving the NATO

Now we don't know what is really true about that all and I think such things do not only happen in US/Trump. Thats why they all have advisors and big staff to take care of them - without them, lots of leaders would be lost imo

Trump of course called all that bs in TV and on his Twitter account:


Source: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1273468029712707584

I would miss Trump, if he doesn't get re-elected, for entertainment purposes, it's a good show. Sometimes reminds me of the drama inside this forum.

Some of the allegations look funny, but they are probably real.
Trump for sure is giving the world some entertainment, but let's hope that Biden gets elected in November. The world needs a real president and not a clown  .

[figmentofmyass]

punters continue to favor biden---latest chances to win per betfair:

-trump 40%
-biden 54%

https://odds.watch/trump-2020

neither side is worth betting at the moment IMO. i'll lay some bets on trump if he ever gets to the 3.33-4 range. i'm hoping the dumpster fire continues for a while.

the crowd's gonna go wild when biden announces kamala as his running mate.....

These new accusations from John Bolton against Trump are really funny, if true

they are, but i don't see them doing any major political damage. trump consistently for years has looked like a buffoon but his rhetoric of deny, deny, deny and attack, attack, attack seems to save him every time. accusations and facts don't matter all that much in a political atmosphere where everything can just be written off as "fake news". bolton is getting his 15 minutes and getting a taste of that sweet sweet book deal money, and liberals are enjoying it a bit too much---that's all i see happening.

[bbc.reporter]

These new accusations from John Bolton against Trump are really funny, if true

According to Bolton, Trump, among other issues, .....

• asked Xi for help to getting re-elected
• often acts with gut feeling and ignorance in foreign affairs
• was once asking, if Finland belongs to Russia
• didn't know that UK had the bomb
• seriously considered leaving the NATO

Now we don't know what is really true about that all and I think such things do not only happen in US/Trump. Thats why they all have advisors and big staff to take care of them - without them, lots of leaders would be lost imo

Trump of course called all that bs in TV and on his Twitter account:


Source: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1273468029712707584

I would miss Trump, if he doesn't get re-elected, for entertainment purposes, it's a good show. Sometimes reminds me of the drama inside this forum.

I am skeptical about John Bolton's timing. Sometimes in politics, a politician orders his own people to attack him with fake news only to prove to everyone that they are fake news. This changes the people's perception on the real issues as also fake news which also causes distrust on the people and the news outlets that are attacking the politician.

[STT]

The double bluff, are we really going to give Trump credit to that extent.   He really does seem to make a comedy amount of enemies, its very un politics like to publicly declare so many enemies (formerly allies) so he is true to that path at least & perhaps that helps him remain popular.   He does want to be the underdog forever, commander in chief of the worlds only superpower but somehow he is wanting to use the same angle as 4 years ago.     Might be stretching his luck on that one, he cant claim like Bush that an attack came at the start of his tenure so its unavoidable some policy consequences are in his quarter.   

[Captain Corporate]

 If you wanted to sum up one thing about Trump election process (now and 4 years ago) that would be fake news. Its not fake news against him, its fake news for him. There has been a million topics about how his people hired companies and workers to spread fake but good news about him all over internet, literally factually wrong stuff, attack the other candidate with once again facually wrong stuff and did this for millions of people for every minute of every day until election day. He spread lies constantly, he is the president that told the most factually wrong things as in lies, and there is really no other way to approach his election as ignoring him. If you keep on trying to correct him, he will win, just ignore him and find something else that you could focus on.

[bitgolden]

You know whats sad about Trump? He might have done all of those things listed and nobody would be shocked. The trouble with Trump supporters is that they would find a way to justify anything, and I mean anything just so Trump would continue to be president. They would rather live in a bad country ruled by the person they voted for instead of ruled in a good country ruled by a person they didn't voted for.

You can have the greatest nation in entire history with a democrat president (you won't) and republicans will still hate them, or you could have millions of people starving to death with tens of millions of people homeless but as long as it is republican they would be fine. That is why they win so much of senate and house and even produce presidents in turns, because democrats do blame themselves when they do a mistake which causes them to lose votes but republicans will always vote republican, not matter what.

[johhnyUA]

I am skeptical about John Bolton's timing. Sometimes in politics, a politician orders his own people to attack him with fake news only to prove to everyone that they are fake news. This changes the people's perception on the real issues as also fake news which also causes distrust on the people and the news outlets that are attacking the politician.

Trump approval rating still fall down :c

But at least this is not the worst times for him, in 2018 his raiting was near 37 percent, and now is 41.5 - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

And his odds drifting, but not so much (as raiting) - https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner

So i think this is another proof of his great chances for winning. If he would be so bad for anyone, he would be already in the pit of rating.

[figmentofmyass]

despite all the shit talking about biden, i believe he is a more electable candidate than hilary was. i also think democrats are significantly more mobilized in 2020 than 2016, with a majority of democrats in exit polls saying their top priority isn't electing anyone in particular---it's defeating trump. that's exactly the kinda atmosphere democrats need to keep cultivating.

they should also be pushing hard for absentee voting, to prevent losing these mobilized voters who don't wanna show up to polls because of the coronavirus. there is some truth to this IMO:

‘My biggest risk’: Trump says mail-in voting could cost him reelection

President Donald Trump called mail-in voting the biggest threat to his reelection and said his campaign's multimillion-dollar legal effort to block expanded ballot access could determine whether he wins a second term.

The president’s assertion that mail-in voting will endanger his reelection comes as states across the country are rushing to accommodate remote voting in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Millions of voters could be disenfranchised if they decide to stay home on Election Day rather than risk contracting the virus at crowded polling stations.

But Trump and his campaign argue, despite a lack of evidence, that widespread mail-in voting will benefit Democrats and invite fraud. The Republican Party is spending tens of millions of dollars on a multifront legal battle.

“My biggest risk is that we don’t win lawsuits,” Trump said. “We have many lawsuits going all over. And if we don’t win those lawsuits, I think — I think it puts the election at risk.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/19/trump-interview-mail-voting-329307

if states send out mail-in ballots to every voter as democrats are pushing for, it could seal trump's fate. he knows it too.

So i think this is another proof of his great chances for winning. If he would be so bad for anyone, he would be already in the pit of rating.

unlike 2016, democrats seem keenly aware of the danger of not voting this time around.

most presidents don't get reelected with approval ratings this low---not that i would write off trump yet, but i don't see "great" chances for winning here. i see a very hotly contested election. a coin flip, which is why i am not interested in betting on either biden or trump unless either gets priced above 3 to win.

[Vishnu.Reang]

punters continue to favor biden---latest chances to win per betfair:

-trump 40%
-biden 54%

https://odds.watch/trump-2020

Odds are changing very fast. Perhaps it is time to make a bet in favor of Biden, before it is too late. I should have done this at least one month ago, when the bookies were favoring Trump to win the re-election. BTW, I checked the link and I was surprised that they have given 1% chance for Hillary to win the POTUS 2020 elections. Now it is : Biden - 55%, Trump - 40%, Hillary - 1%.

[figmentofmyass]

Odds are changing very fast. Perhaps it is time to make a bet in favor of Biden, before it is too late. I should have done this at least one month ago, when the bookies were favoring Trump to win the re-election. BTW, I checked the link and I was surprised that they have given 1% chance for Hillary to win the POTUS 2020 elections. Now it is : Biden - 55%, Trump - 40%, Hillary - 1%.

the clinton odds are just a reflection of how punters have bet, not how betfair sees the chances per se.

biden 55%, trump 39% now. i suspect there will be a pullback in this trend, and that you can get better odds between now and november certainly---if biden is who you like. it won't keep moving in a straight line like this. if trump plunges to 3-3.33 in the short term i'm gonna lay a bet on him as a medium term trade, with the intention of betting on biden when punter sentiment reverses again.

trump is a lot more charismatic (and better functioning cognitively) than biden. when we get into the heat of election season, debates, etc this is gonna be reflected in the odds more. the biden campaign has been run well IMO but they've been able to rely on effective ads and press releases and they are riding favorably on the news cycle, which will inevitably reverse. eventually biden will need to become more of a public figure, longer speeches, 3+ debates---lots of chances to fuck up in the eyes of the public. as i mentioned above, the absentee voting issue being litigated in several states could have a major effect too, and democrats are not guaranteed to prevail.

with so many huge variables heading into this, i'd rather just bet against confident punters on both sides. nobody should be that confident. this is a coin flip.

[johhnyUA]

So i think this is another proof of his great chances for winning. If he would be so bad for anyone, he would be already in the pit of rating.

unlike 2016, democrats seem keenly aware of the danger of not voting this time around.

most presidents don't get reelected with approval ratings this low---not that i would write off trump yet, but i don't see "great" chances for winning here. i see a very hotly contested election. a coin flip, which is why i am not interested in betting on either biden or trump unless either gets priced above 3 to win.

I mean a little another thing. In 2016 Trump was more like populist and many people from middle class were afraid to vote for him. Now they see what ways of economic and politic Trump choose (conflict with China, decreasing of taxes and so on) and maybe will vote for him.

And yeah, about "great" i was a little incorrect. Better word for it is "enough chances". My bad.

[bbc.reporter]

You know whats sad about Trump? He might have done all of those things listed and nobody would be shocked. The trouble with Trump supporters is that they would find a way to justify anything, and I mean anything just so Trump would continue to be president. They would rather live in a bad country ruled by the person they voted for instead of ruled in a good country ruled by a person they didn't voted for.

You can have the greatest nation in entire history with a democrat president (you won't) and republicans will still hate them, or you could have millions of people starving to death with tens of millions of people homeless but as long as it is republican they would be fine. That is why they win so much of senate and house and even produce presidents in turns, because democrats do blame themselves when they do a mistake which causes them to lose votes but republicans will always vote republican, not matter what.

You should also read about the hypocrisy of the democrats. I reckon that the silent majority knows this and the polls do not represent what they might mark on the ballot.

Also, after the beginning of the riots, what does everyone reckon on a Bernie candidacy instead of Biden? Bernie might have stepped down early hehehe.

[tyKiwanuka]

Yesterdays rally in Tulsa didn't help Trump, Bidens odds have even gone further down to around 1.80 now. The upper decks in BOK Center were mostly empty and an outdoor speech was cancelled.


Source: https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2020/06/trump-s-tulsa-rally-empty-seats-outdoor-speeches-cancelled-after-poor-turnout.html

While I think it's understandable that a lot of seats remained empty - who wants to be indoors with 19k other people during these times - I am surprised by the cancellation of the outdoor speech due to underwhelming crowd, since being in a crowd outdoors is not that risky and you can distance yourself better. Republicans say it was due to protestors, fake news etc., but the betting markets reacted nonetheless.

I didn't watch it all yet, just some parts, but Trump said, that he asked for the Corona testing to be slowed down, to not have that many cases. Now a lot of countries have their own methods to make the numbers look good/better - China is only counting symptomatic cases - which is just part of politics I guess, but publicly stating such things, is just stupid