US Presidential Election 2020

[tomahawk9]

Looks like my prediction that the 'Trump to win election' odds were going to go up above 6/5 odds might not come true after all. 5Dimes have Trump to win @1.70 right now, not bad tbh, at such odds trump supporters should pull the trigger.

<...> This could lead to interesting developments in North Korea, which Trump could use to his advantage. Opinions ?

China and South Korea, but especially China, are all over North Korea right now and they won't let any outsiders interfere in whatever agenda Moon Jae-in's govt or the CCP are gonna try to push in Pyongyang once Kim Jong Un is confirmed dead. I think the Trump administration will be very cautious, if they try to take advantage of the situation and outplay NK and China, things could south very quickly.

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[Vishnu.Reang]

I really don't understand the betting odds. How can Trump be ahead of Biden? Trump needs to win states such Pennsylvania, Virginia, Nevada.etc and he is far behind in the opinion polls for these states. I made my own calculations on the path to 270 electoral votes, and to be honest I can't find a way for Trump to win this election. Either I am missing something, or the betting sides are making a huge mistake.

And here are some recent polls for POTUS 2020:

Texas: Trump +5
NY: Biden +36
Florida: Biden +3 (Fox News)
Pennsylvania: Biden +6

[tyKiwanuka]

I really don't understand the betting odds. How can Trump be ahead of Biden?

Trump is ahead of Biden, but he is actually behind the Democrats. There is still a little bit more uncertainty about who the democratic nominee will be, while Trump is more or less a a lock to be republican nominee and this reflects in the "Next President" market. The winning party market gives a clearer picture:


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128988348

The betting markets include a lot of speculation about the democratic nominee imo. The betting public is not very confident in Biden beating Trump (so am I), but they are very confident in any other nominee than Biden beating Trump.

And on top, the betting markets don't forget. Trump shocked the markets 4 years ago and lots of people still have this in mind. Say what you want about Trump, but he is a good campaigner, while Biden is not.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Trump is ahead of Biden, but he is actually behind the Democrats. There is still a little bit more uncertainty about who the democratic nominee will be, while Trump is more or less a a lock to be republican nominee and this reflects in the "Next President" market. The winning party market gives a clearer picture:


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128988348

OK. I didn't considered that fact. There is some(?) uncertainty about the Dem nominee. But still, the difference is very small. I would have expected a larger gap. 1.99 vs 1.96 doesn't represent the current voting preferences, I'm afraid.

The betting markets include a lot of speculation about the democratic nominee imo. The betting public is not very confident in Biden beating Trump (so am I), but they are very confident in any other nominee than Biden beating Trump.

I don't understand. Does this mean that they don't believe in these opinion polls? Even agencies such as Fox News and Rasmussen Reports are indicating that Trump is trailing Biden by considerable margin.

And on top, the betting markets don't forget. Trump shocked the markets 4 years ago and lots of people still have this in mind. Say what you want about Trump, but he is a good campaigner, while Biden is not.

Not denying what happened in 2016. Back then, the polls failed to measure the silent undercurrents. But the big question is, are they doing just the opposite now, by over-predicting the support for Trump?

I am yet to find a calculation, where Trump receives 270 electoral votes. I have made my calculations and right now Trump is assured of 163 electoral votes (after including TX). Here are the states which I consider leaning towards Trump: AK, LA, MS, MT, UT, IN, MO, SC, TX, ID, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, AR, AL, TN, KY and WV.

He needs a further 107 from the tossup states. I can give FL, GA to him (although Biden is currently ahead in FL as per the latest polls). That gives 208 for Trump and he still needs 62.

OK.. I can give IA (6 votes) and OH (18 votes) as well. Even now, Trump is at 232, needing another 38 votes. To be honest, I don't think that he has any realistic chance of winning any of the remaining tossup states.

These are the tossups that are remaining:

NV - 6 votes
AZ - 11
NM - 5
CO - 9
MN - 10
WI - 10
MI - 16
PA - 20
VA - 13
NC - 15
NH - 4
ME - 4

[tyKiwanuka]

OK. I didn't considered that fact. There is some(?) uncertainty about the Dem nominee. But still, the difference is very small. I would have expected a larger gap. 1.99 vs 1.96 doesn't represent the current voting preferences, I'm afraid.

These markets in betting exchanges are a bit more difficult to read. Odds for Reps in the screenshot are 2.02, for Dems 1.98, any other 220 (the blue fields). The pink fields are orders waiting to get matched. So there is a punter waiting to bet 395,- on odds of 2.04 for Reps, another wants to bet 55,- on Dems for 1.99 and so on. Like a cryptocurrency exchange with ask and bid price - people buy/sell/trade their positions. In this exchange everything blue and left of it, is people having orders to bet against something. Everything pink and right of it, is people waiting to bet on a certain outcome.

I don't understand. Does this mean that they don't believe in these opinion polls? Even agencies such as Fox News and Rasmussen Reports are indicating that Trump is trailing Biden by considerable margin.

This is basically what it means, yes. Polls and betting markets don't always go hand in hand. You will rarely see a betting market going completely contrary to polls, but they sometimes have their own sentiment, which you can see in this market to some extent. This is the fun and analytical thing in (sports-)betting and the opportunity to find valuable bets - the general public opinion and polls are not always right.

Not denying what happened in 2016. Back then, the polls failed to measure the silent undercurrents. But the big question is, are they doing just the opposite now, by over-predicting the support for Trump?

I am yet to find a calculation, where Trump receives 270 electoral votes. I have made my calculations and right now Trump is assured of 163 electoral votes (after including TX). Here are the states which I consider leaning towards Trump: AK, LA, MS, MT, UT, IN, MO, SC, TX, ID, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, AR, AL, TN, KY and WV.

He needs a further 107 from the tossup states. I can give FL, GA to him (although Biden is currently ahead in FL as per the latest polls). That gives 208 for Trump and he still needs 62.

OK.. I can give IA (6 votes) and OH (18 votes) as well. Even now, Trump is at 232, needing another 38 votes. To be honest, I don't think that he has any realistic chance of winning any of the remaining tossup states.

(...)

Well, it looks like you have quite some knowledge about US politics (definitely more than me), so if this your calculation and you think it's reasonable, you can certainly place a bet based on that. We all know, it's still some time to go until November and this will be an interesting summer in the US, but if you think these odds are too high, just go for it.

Current odds imply these probabilities:

Biden next president = 2.32 = 43.10%
Democrats win = 1.98 = 50.51%

If you think - all things considered - Biden has more than 43.10% or Dems win has more than 50.51%, then this is probably a good bet.

[deisik]

What are the odds of Trump canceling the elections altogether? I remember when he was elected for the first time (well, let's assume he gets re-elected this time), there were insinuations how he would want to go for the eternal presidency (Putin-style or the Chinese one, what's his name). Now seems to be just about time to make a bold move and turn the tables, given the coronavirus situation. As they say, strike while the iron is hot. What do you guys think?

Is it possible to pull off?

[tyKiwanuka]

Is it possible to pull off?

This is very unlikely and next to impossible to do. I think it would need something way worse than Corona (don't get me wrong, this is already very bad) to cancel the elections and make Trump de facto lifetime president. We talked about a postponement earlier in this thread and that alone would already be something not that easy to do.

(...)
The Presidential Election Day Act, passed by Congress in 1845, mandates that “the electors of President and Vice President shall be appointed in each State on the Tuesday next after the first Monday in the month of November of the year in which they are to be appointed.” The sitting president has no ability on his own to alter that date — he cannot issue an executive order or otherwise act unilaterally to change the deadline.
(...)
The 20th amendment to the U.S. constitution states that the current president’s four-year term ends at noon on Jan. 20.
(...)
Altering that Jan. 20 deadline would require amending the U.S. Constitution in a matter of months, a virtually impossible feat.
(...)
“We’ve had elections in this country when we were at war, even when we were in [a] civil war. And we should have the elections on time.”

Source: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/presidential-election-postponed/

[deisik]

Is it possible to pull off?

This is very unlikely and next to impossible to do. I think it would need something way worse than Corona (don't get me wrong, this is already very bad) to cancel the elections and make Trump de facto lifetime president. We talked about a postponement earlier in this thread and that alone would already be something not that easy to do.

Altering that Jan. 20 deadline would require amending the U.S. Constitution in a matter of months, a virtually impossible feat.
(...)
“We’ve had elections in this country when we were at war, even when we were in [a] civil war. And we should have the elections on time.”

Source: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/presidential-election-postponed/

I sent you a merit, and it says this cannot be undone. However, what is done by one man can always be undone by another (generally speaking). I agree with you that it will be a daunting task on its own. But ultimately, all it takes is changing a few words or lines in some document, even if it is the U.S. Constitution. Did Trump think about that, or rather, is he thinking about that now? As they also say, if there is a will, there is a way

Further, let's keep in mind that we already know of the U.S. Constitution's past and history. It was changed before, in fact, numerous times, and some of these changes look pretty ridiculous now - like the infamous 18th amendment (Prohibition). Even if "there is as much chance of repealing the Eighteenth Amendment as there is for a humming-bird to fly to the planet Mars with the Washington Monument tied to its tail"

It is kinda crazy that such things need a Constitution amendment, and then another one to get rid of them

[tyKiwanuka]

I sent you a merit, and it says this cannot be undone.

Thanks, I guess there is a power in this forum that could undo it, if absolutely necessary

However, what is done by one man can always be undone by another (generally speaking). I agree with you that it will be a daunting task on its own. But ultimately, all it takes is changing a few words or lines in some document, even if it is the U.S. Constitution. Did Trump think about that, or rather, is he thinking about that now? As they also say, if there is a will, there is a way

Tbh I don't think he has even thought about it, but sometimes it's hard to figure out, what is going on in his head.
I have a feeling, that he actually is the only one, who wants to have himself as eternal president - and he can't change the constitution on his own; he needs help. I think it's really not easy to work under Trump, with the alpha-male he is. You either do your job according to his gusto or you are fired. I can only imagine how many times Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx have facepalmed themselves in recent weeks, when Trump was saying weird things at his pressers during this pandemic.

Look at this: https://youtu.be/QtgVxGkrX1Y?t=126

So he suggests looking into injecting/ingesting disinfectant into people, to treat patients. Every kid knows, that disinfectant is only for external use. Now later of course he said, that he was being sarcastic. But a) he doesn't seem to be sarcastic to me and b) lets assume, he was indeed being sarcastic. This is definitely not the right time to be sarcastic in such a bad crisis and with such a life-threatening "advice", that already resulted in people actually drinking disinfectant. This is not funny.

I see no way in the world that this would happen. I like to gamble on high odds, but there couldn't be any odd high enough for me, to risk a penny on that. He has too many enemies, even in his close circle imo.


These recent accusations of sexual assault by Tare Reade have done Biden odds no good. Odds for Dem nominee have gone up from 1.13 to 1.16 and accordingly there are some new dynamics in the next president market as well. Lets see how this unfolds in the next weeks.

[amishmanish]

The analysis by @Vishnu.Reang up there suggest that Trump may not win the election. For the greater good, i hope that happens. Trump has become the monster that republicans cannot put back. He lies, bullies and downright make a mockery of the civilized discourse that was supposed to be the American way.
I mean, yeah, the rest of the world knows that obese, beer-lugging, burger-guzzling, pussy-grabbing, biker-gang vibe is also a part of the American stereotype but overall, the world has sort of looked up to USA as the source of a lot of humane actions and compassion as well in the past century. With Trump, all those scummy people who say things like, "Its just locker talk", "Alternate facts", "Bad people on both sides" have found a figurehead who will say and behave in the exact same manner. These people will still back him.

It is often said that the Trump represents the hard-working, conservative, working class, believer American. Couldn't they have found a better, more decent human being for a leader than this sorry ass of a person who cannot say one coherent sentence without praising himself or putting blame on someone else??

The analysis can say all that it wants just like it happened at the time of Hillary. Trump will start saying things like "Weak Biden", "Ill Biden", "Missing Biden" and his ardent followers will pick it up. Just hope that Biden can give it back to him. The effect of how Trump will play his hand regarding "handling China" post COVID-19 recovery may also play a part. The reaction here wouldn't be too different from Dems too. I think everyone is ready for some arm-wrestling with China after their continuing misadventures.

[deisik]

So he suggests looking into injecting/ingesting disinfectant into people, to treat patients. Every kid knows, that disinfectant is only for external use. Now later of course he said, that he was being sarcastic. But a) he doesn't seem to be sarcastic to me and b) lets assume, he was indeed being sarcastic. This is definitely not the right time to be sarcastic in such a bad crisis and with such a life-threatening "advice", that already resulted in people actually drinking disinfectant. This is not funny

I don't think he was sarcastic

But does he have a choice in this situation? If he wasn't sarcastic or didn't claim to be, he would then have to admit that he had lied, even if unwittingly (what would probably create a "solid legal footing" for filing a lawsuit against him, idk). However, it doesn't really matter either as he may say one thing and then do another, and this behavior has become his second nature (or was his "modus operandi" from the very beginning). To put it another way, he himself doesn't take his own words seriously, deep down. A regular hypocrite, maybe a little bit more pronounced due to his overall inflammatory nature, but once you come to understand it, get to know it, everything fits and falls into place

I see no way in the world that this would happen. I like to gamble on high odds, but there couldn't be any odd high enough for me, to risk a penny on that. He has too many enemies, even in his close circle imo

America is the only one out of the three superpowers (the other two being Russia and China) that doesn't have a lifetime ruler yet. Trump may not succeed (and let's keep fingers crossed that he doesn't) but he won't let go of power easily or voluntarily, of his own accord

[Vishnu.Reang]

I want opinion from users about two major factors, which can have an impact on the outcome of the elections. Please help me with these, as I am planning to make a bet in favor of Biden.

1. If the COVID 19 outbreak remains a major issue during the elections in November, which candidate is going to get hurt as a result of it? Will it negatively impact Biden, or will it be more damaging for Trump? Which one may get hurt, if the turnout dips?

2. If the outbreak is having a disproportionate impact on the inner city areas mostly inhabited by the minorities, will that have a negative impact on Biden? If the elderly population is more vulnerable to COVID 19, will that put Trump in trouble? Elderly population in the US is overwhelmingly white non-Hispanic, and if they stay at home, then Trump's chances may dim.

[tyKiwanuka]

1. If the COVID 19 outbreak remains a major issue during the elections in November, which candidate is going to get hurt as a result of it? Will it negatively impact Biden, or will it be more damaging for Trump? Which one may get hurt, if the turnout dips?

I don't think there is any scenario that hurts Biden. There are just scenarios that help/hurt Trump, but do they hurt Biden ? No. This is probably the same, but a distinction that has to be made, because this is all about Trump. If there are still "major issues" in November, this will hurt Trump (and help Biden indirectly). If the situation has vastly improved by November this will of course help Trump (and hurt Biden indirectly). Biden is exchangeable here imo, since there is not a lot he can do. People will always put any judgement - postiive or negative - on Trump.

2. If the outbreak is having a disproportionate impact on the inner city areas mostly inhabited by the minorities, will that have a negative impact on Biden? If the elderly population is more vulnerable to COVID 19, will that put Trump in trouble? Elderly population in the US is overwhelmingly white non-Hispanic, and if they stay at home, then Trump's chances may dim.

If I understand correctly, you are referring to people actually going to physically vote or just staying at home due to fear of catching that virus. It could have an impact, but too many variables (for me) to draw any conclusions. Die-hard people will always vote no matter what. Those that are undecided or don't bother that much, will probably skip, depending on the overall situation. Are these people staying at home more likely to vote Trump or Biden ? Maybe Trump.

[mu_enrico]

I don't think there is any scenario that hurts Biden

Republicans can spin this tweet and said that Trump made the correct decision when he closed the border, while Biden accused him of being "hysteria, xenophobia, and fear-mongering." Even though the virus won't be completely eradicated, they can say it's a success, and Trump has saved many lives.

Anyway, more likely, what will happen related to the virus won't affect this election since Trump haters are going to hate him, and his lovers are going to love him. Still, I think his current position is way better than his 1st election.

[bbc.reporter]

However, Trump was taking he coronavirus seriously from the beginning. On February, he ordered that some of the flights from China should be cancelled. This was against the advice of his advisers on health care.

What was he called by mainstream media after the order? Yes, a racist.

There are arguments both in favor and against Trump in this subject. It is true that he stopped the flights from China against the advice of the experts. But at the same time, he delayed the lockdown measures until it was too late. And on top of that, I am surprised by his trust on Hydroxychloroquine, which according to the medical experts have not yet proven to be effective against COVID 19.

He did not delay the lockdowns. He left that decision on the governors because they knew better of each of their situations in each state.

Also, it is stupid to assume that Trump suggested to people to ingest disinfectants. Stop listening to mainstream news media.

[tyKiwanuka]

Also, it is stupid to assume that Trump suggested to people to ingest disinfectants. Stop listening to mainstream news media.

Well, he didn't say: "Drink disinfectants, then you will be fine". But he speculated about internally use of disinfectanct being effective against the virus and that they should have a look at this matter - at an official, nation-wide televised, press conference. Every sane person is of course aware that this is life-threatening, but you will always have people, anywhere in the world, who will take that for real and just give it a shot. As a politician you just can't say such things, it's careless, because there is always that one dumb person, who will take everything for real and these people need to be protected. You put peoples life into danger and Trump should have known. There are cases, where people drank disinfectants now in the last days because of his weird speculations.

In Germany, if Merkel said such things, there is no way she would still be Chancellor the next day. I know the US is different and if Trump would walk on water, CNN would say, look, he can't even swim, but he crossed a red line there imo.

[Vishnu.Reang]

If I understand correctly, you are referring to people actually going to physically vote or just staying at home due to fear of catching that virus. It could have an impact, but too many variables (for me) to draw any conclusions. Die-hard people will always vote no matter what. Those that are undecided or don't bother that much, will probably skip, depending on the overall situation. Are these people staying at home more likely to vote Trump or Biden ? Maybe Trump.

I would disagree here. The most hardcore voters are those who support Trump, especially those middle aged and elderly Evangelical voters. They will vote no matter what, as per the advice given from their church (they will vote for Trump, so that he can turn the SCOTUS to conservative majority). Hardcore Biden voters are students and activists, and the polling percentage has been historically lower among this group. So my guess is that it will hurt Biden more than Trump.

[Captain Corporate]

 That is literally the vote Democrats are after right now with the Biden nomination. Biden people are quite old as well, remember when Bernie Sanders and Biden was the only two reamining, they were actually decided by the old people, youth didn't turned out like they suppose to and that caused Biden to win. Which means Trumps old republican voters versus Bidens old democrat voters will be in fight. There is this idea that young democrats do not vote as much as old but when you check same applies for Republicans as well. You americans just do not vote that much until you get old I suppose.

 This time around Biden has the votes of blacks for sure, thats a good thing, Hillary didn't really had them. But aside from that difference, there is literally zero difference from 2016, hell even black votes was mainly democrat but this time around maaaaaybe there could be more turnout.

 Remember Trump supporters are idiots, which means coronavirus doesn't really matter to them, they are mainly "virus is a lie, why can't I see it? Must be a lie" type of IQ people, so they will definitely go out and vote without fear, whereas Biden actually has some stupid people voting for him as well, but just not enough.

[el kaka22]

I still can't believe people try to find a way to cover up the stupidity of Trump, I don't understand why you would even want to do that? I mean he is the idiot in chief and even Bush looks smart compared to him, there is literally NO reason to try to convince others that is not true, you could still be a stupid person and be a great president, presidents don't need to be smart at all, presidents needs to be caring of others and helpful towards the public and all around a nice person who wants everyone to be better, that doesn't require brains, that requires compassion, and we all know Trump doesn't have that neither, dude only cares about himself and himself alone.

Yet I am 99% sure he will get it, why? Because Americans would probably pick an idiot over another corporate democrat, both gonna ruin the nation for sure, at least maybe Trump would be too stupid to ruin it properly.

[deisik]

Every sane person is of course aware that this is life-threatening, but you will always have people, anywhere in the world, who will take that for real and just give it a shot. As a politician you just can't say such things, it's careless, because there is always that one dumb person, who will take everything for real and these people need to be protected. You put peoples life into danger and Trump should have known. There are cases, where people drank disinfectants now in the last days because of his weird speculations

First off, I agree with you about Trump

However, as much as we want to give him a piece of our mind, we should also credit him with the benefit of doubt (maybe, a little less than usual). Really, what is the most widely used disinfectant in the world? Right, ethanol, i.e. alcohol, which people also happen to drink, surprise, and some in quite excessive amounts. Indeed, it is unlikely to help with the coronavirus, but technically, that makes Trump's comment not as insane or stupid as it sounds. I guess he should pay me for this loophole if he ever makes into the court docket for his long tongue