US Presidential Election 2020

[tyKiwanuka]

That approval rating is only from CNN. CNN and the other mainstream media hate Trump from the beginning of his first campaign.

The other Trump approval ratings are more than 40%.

I still think it would make more sense for CNN to fake polls and approval ratings pro Trump - or at least that is what I would do, if I was to support Biden. I am thinking about those people who are not that eager to go voting, but lean (strongly) towards one of the candidates. If I lean towards Biden and see him being 60% favourite, I might say to myself, well, he will win anyway, so I don't need to give my vote. If I lean towards Trump and see him trailing, I might feel the urge to actually give my vote to him.

This only works until a certain threshold of course, because at some point you will have discouraged the underdog voters; maybe they are trying to do that

The sportsbooks and the pollsters had Hillary more as a certainty on 2016 than Biden for 2020.

The 2016 election was so weird, I have never seen polls and markets being so wrong when it comes to an election anywhere in the world. Normally the odds are pretty good and I trust them way more than any polls. If you actually put your hard earned money on something, this has way more weight, than just participating in a poll, which costs you nothing and you can just lie without consequences.

Polls and betting odds always go hand in hand more or less of course, but the odds reflect an all-in-one mix of all information, polls, bias etc. In 2016 the matrix was way off and it sill amazes me until today tbh. But when the overwhelming majority is placing their bets on low-ish odds based on public opionion and polls, even the sharps have a hard time moving the market. But they made good money I think.

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[bearexin]

2016 Hillary thing was because nobody was giving Trump a chance, it was actually quite unlikely that he would become nominee for the republican party neither when he first started out, dude was just seen as nobody, he went around and talked to everyone everywhere, that is how he won the nomination and also the presidential race as well. He was capable of amazing social media and online presence as well with tens of millions of dollars all going towards exact and precise marketing with tens of thousands of data points so he advertise to people depending on what they want to hear.

This year is a bit different, now he is out of the shadows and everyone knows him, he is no longer the under dog, he is the president and he had 4 years to prove himself, now Biden is from Obama times and people may want to go back to that and get that vote.

[Captain Corporate]

 Biden is doing the same mistake Hillary is doing though. I mean sure he does write better responses on twitter (probably a team obviously) but at the same time he is not going around the country trying to get votes. Lets say that he is not doing that because he has to deal with corona virus being spread and thats why he can't go around the whole nation, what about live television every night? I mean I am %99 sure there must be some news channel who would love to have him on tv, thats how you get voters, you need to have people who hate you so that there will be people who would defend you. Biden has to be on TV every single night without a break, from today to election day. Thats the only matter to get good PR and votes in this pandemic period.

[figmentofmyass]

I think nothing will happen, in meaning of Trump election. There only 13 % of young people is black people (anti trumpists) and the most part of middle class people age 40 is for Trump.

it's mostly non-black people who are out protesting btw. 60-70% of americans sympathize with the protests depending on which poll you look at.

Supporting protest against cops and racism doesn't mean supporting anti Trump campaign.

the issue is that a strong majority of americans disagree with trump's handling of the protests and his position on police reform. he is handing biden the police/racism issue on a silver platter and showing he is out of touch with most americans. https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2020/06/09/74-of-americans-support-george-floyd-protests-majority-disapprove-of-trumps-handling/#44b651e8557c

i see him alienating lots of people---even republicans are split, with 53% supporting the protests---so if he keeps doubling down on his unpopular opinions, he better hope the protests lose steam and everybody forgets about them real soon. he has done more than enough to keep his core base happy; when is he gonna consider damage control? at this point he is just energizing non-voters to vote against him and also alienating centrists, adding fuel to the fire.

odds at 53-41, biden advantage. https://odds.watch/trump-2020

if trump starts being priced below 30% to win then i start becoming interested in the trump bet. i love me a good underdog.

[bbc.reporter]

That approval rating is only from CNN. CNN and the other mainstream media hate Trump from the beginning of his first campaign.

The other Trump approval ratings are more than 40%.

I still think it would make more sense for CNN to fake polls and approval ratings pro Trump - or at least that is what I would do, if I was to support Biden. I am thinking about those people who are not that eager to go voting, but lean (strongly) towards one of the candidates. If I lean towards Biden and see him being 60% favourite, I might say to myself, well, he will win anyway, so I don't need to give my vote. If I lean towards Trump and see him trailing, I might feel the urge to actually give my vote to him.

This only works until a certain threshold of course, because at some point you will have discouraged the underdog voters; maybe they are trying to do that

I cannot agree. I reckon that what might work for Donald Trump might be a disastrous blunder for the campaign of Joe Biden.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Biden is doing the same mistake Hillary is doing though. I mean sure he does write better responses on twitter (probably a team obviously) but at the same time he is not going around the country trying to get votes. Lets say that he is not doing that because he has to deal with corona virus being spread and thats why he can't go around the whole nation, what about live television every night? I mean I am %99 sure there must be some news channel who would love to have him on tv, thats how you get voters, you need to have people who hate you so that there will be people who would defend you. Biden has to be on TV every single night without a break, from today to election day. Thats the only matter to get good PR and votes in this pandemic period.

I am not very excited with the performance from Biden so far. He has failed to energize the core voteblock of the Democrat Party. I hope he may get some boost, once he announce the VP candidate. But he needs to be more active. And one thing we need to analyze is the impact the COVID 19 pandemic can have on the voter turnout for the 2020 elections. I am afraid that it is going to affect the voter turnout in inner city areas. If that happens, then Biden would be in trouble.

[bbc.reporter]

@Vishnu.Reang. Also, what states have the highest cases of the coronavirus and the highest projected cases of the virus on November? Blue states or red states?

The democrats also want to defund the police. Minneapolis has begun doing this. What would be its effect on independent voters?

[Juggy777]

@Vishnu.Reang. Also, what states have the highest cases of the coronavirus and the highest projected cases of the virus on November? Blue states or red states?

The democrats also want to defund the police. Minneapolis has begun doing this. What would be its effect on independent voters?

@bbc.reporter things are not looking good for Trump right now, but it’s too early to conclude that he’ll loose the upcoming US presidential elections. Further I believe that the media is confusing US citizens for e.g. see this a Forbes article which claims that Trump can loose the state of Arkansas, and then later on the same article says that he has lead of a 2% so he may not loose the state. Lastly I believe that Trump will win the elections because Republicans are yet united behind him, and on the other hand the Democratic Party is yet struggling to unite behind Biden.

Sources:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/06/14/could-trump-lose-arkansas-poll-shows-dead-heat-but-experts-are-skeptical/#182e8a4c9259

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-06-12/republican-officials-fear-trump

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/434971-pollster-says-its-not-looking-good-for-trump-ahead-of-2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/24/us/politics/democratic-party-unity-primary.html

[seoincorporation]

Here the issue will be: How much does coronavirus will affect the next presidential election.

Some people will understand the virus came from another country and was out of the govs hands, but a lot of them are not agreeing with how does the gov handles the problem because of numbers talks by themself. And to be the country with the biggest number of deads means that they do it something wrong.

No one was ready for a pandemic, and not all the govs had the right people to handle it.

[Vishnu.Reang]

@Vishnu.Reang. Also, what states have the highest cases of the coronavirus and the highest projected cases of the virus on November? Blue states or red states?

The democrats also want to defund the police. Minneapolis has begun doing this. What would be its effect on independent voters?

LOL.. They want to disband the police force? There can't be anything more lunatic than this. A country such as the United States won't be able to function without the police force. This is pure insanity.

From what I have seen, the pandemic is affecting the blue states more than the red states. Even in the red states, the impact is being felt more on counties where the African-Americans, Hispanics and Amerindians make up substantial portion of the population. A few examples are Hancock County (GA) with 3.5 deaths per 1,000 people and McKinley (NM) with 2 deaths per 1,000.

[Mauser]

I am not very excited with the performance from Biden so far. He has failed to energize the core voteblock of the Democrat Party. I hope he may get some boost, once he announce the VP candidate. But he needs to be more active. And one thing we need to analyze is the impact the COVID 19 pandemic can have on the voter turnout for the 2020 elections. I am afraid that it is going to affect the voter turnout in inner city areas. If that happens, then Biden would be in trouble.

Same here. I don't understand why the Democratic Party is always pushing not their best candidates. Like with  Hillary Clinton 4 years ago was just unlikeable as a politician. It wasn't about her gender, it was all about her strategy to be viewed as good person, trying to change things. But in the end she was lying and just another politician. Voters want someone to relate to and not someone who is trying to hard.
They are doing the same with Biden now, he is just too old and doesn't come across as very likeable. I think the democratic party needs to reform its self. Get a younger candidate where people actually can relate to.

How much are you guys betting on the election? Trump seems like the safest bet.

[palle11]

Here the issue will be: How much does coronavirus will affect the next presidential election.

Some people will understand the virus came from another country and was out of the govs hands, but a lot of them are not agreeing with how does the gov handles the problem because of numbers talks by themself. And to be the country with the biggest number of deads means that they do it something wrong.

No one was ready for a pandemic, and not all the govs had the right people to handle it.

If anything is to be said on that concerning the election of US and your post in my view, I would say do we really know if the politics of covid-19 was about the election? In trying to spoil the chances of Trump.
US was the worst hit but if it was targeted as a deliberate act is yet to be determined.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Same here. I don't understand why the Democratic Party is always pushing not their best candidates. Like with  Hillary Clinton 4 years ago was just unlikeable as a politician. It wasn't about her gender, it was all about her strategy to be viewed as good person, trying to change things. But in the end she was lying and just another politician. Voters want someone to relate to and not someone who is trying to hard.
They are doing the same with Biden now, he is just too old and doesn't come across as very likeable. I think the democratic party needs to reform its self. Get a younger candidate where people actually can relate to.

How much are you guys betting on the election? Trump seems like the safest bet.

I agree with most of your points, but not with Trump being the safest bet. I had posted in this thread a few weeks back. Trump needs to win a majority of the swing states and he seems to be trailing badly in almost all of them. Only FL is giving him any hope. He is facing disaster in states such as AZ, NH, MI, MN, VA, PA.etc. For me, Biden seems to be the front runner right now and IMO he is being under-rated by the bookies.

[tyKiwanuka]

I agree with most of your points, but not with Trump being the safest bet. I had posted in this thread a few weeks back. Trump needs to win a majority of the swing states and he seems to be trailing badly in almost all of them. Only FL is giving him any hope. He is facing disaster in states such as AZ, NH, MI, MN, VA, PA.etc. For me, Biden seems to be the front runner right now and IMO he is being under-rated by the bookies.

Trump doesn't look a good bet right now (maybe a good trade though), but tbh everything falls into place for Biden at the moment Trump has his back against the wall, but as fast as things turned around, they can make a U-turn again and go in the other direction. I am not convinced, that it will be a 1.01 train for Biden from here on, that would be too easy. The US is probably at the lowest point right now economy-wise and with civil unrest. I already said at 1.97, that I found Biden too low, now he is 1.89 and you will probably see me writing here again at 1.70, but I still think Trump will get re-elected. You win/lose the election in October/November, not in June, and I expect him to go full blast in his typical manner then - with an economy in uptrend again (I don't believe in a second Corona wave) and a more uniting approach for the United States of America.

Just imagine the odds, if the Democrats had a proper candidate, 1.40 maybe ?!

[babygun]

I agree with most of your points, but not with Trump being the safest bet. I had posted in this thread a few weeks back. Trump needs to win a majority of the swing states and he seems to be trailing badly in almost all of them. Only FL is giving him any hope. He is facing disaster in states such as AZ, NH, MI, MN, VA, PA.etc. For me, Biden seems to be the front runner right now and IMO he is being under-rated by the bookies.

Trump doesn't look a good bet right now (maybe a good trade though), but tbh everything falls into place for Biden at the moment Trump has his back against the wall, but as fast as things turned around, they can make a U-turn again and go in the other direction. I am not convinced, that it will be a 1.01 train for Biden from here on, that would be too easy. The US is probably at the lowest point right now economy-wise and with civil unrest. I already said at 1.97, that I found Biden too low, now he is 1.89 and you will probably see me writing here again at 1.70, but I still think Trump will get re-elected. You win/lose the election in October/November, not in June, and I expect him to go full blast in his typical manner then - with an economy in uptrend again (I don't believe in a second Corona wave) and a more uniting approach for the United States of America.

Just imagine the odds, if the Democrats had a proper candidate, 1.40 maybe ?!

While I agree with you, but 4 years ago Clinton was prime favorite in becoming president (odds around 1.4 - 1.5) and still she lost. Even the bookmakers make mistakes  .
Things can change quickly but I think that Biden has a good chance of winning.

[tyKiwanuka]

Even the bookmakers make mistakes  .

At this point it's not the bookmakers that make the odds In fact, they stopped already long ago - it's all the market, i.e. the punters, that move the odds. The bookmakers only adjust the odds according to the bets they get and even if they get no action at all, they will still be forced to do what the general market does to not leave any surebets on the table and risking their balanced book.

So market thinks that Biden is favoured now and I think so too, if the election was tomorrow. However all these bets are for November and you rarely see something going down forever pre-match. Or lets say in such a dynamic market, with so many angles and external factors, it would surprise me, if we don't see Biden trading above 2.00 again in the upcoming weeks.

[figmentofmyass]

You win/lose the election in October/November, not in June, and I expect him to go full blast in his typical manner then - with an economy in uptrend again (I don't believe in a second Corona wave) and a more uniting approach for the United States of America.

there are too many big variables at present, one of which is the economy/coronavirus. with infections, hospitalizations, and deaths on the rise (which will probably spike even more given recent reopenings and protests) i expect new shelter-in-place/social distancing orders in the summer or fall. after all, those decisions are up to state governors (who are much more concerned about public health than trump) and not the federal government. i think the economy and markets might take a shit at the worst possible time for trump, in the heat of election season.

in any case i'm definitely taking the trump bet if he starts getting priced like 2016. we're nowhere near there yet.

[bbc.reporter]

@Vishnu.Reang. Also, what states have the highest cases of the coronavirus and the highest projected cases of the virus on November? Blue states or red states?

The democrats also want to defund the police. Minneapolis has begun doing this. What would be its effect on independent voters?

LOL.. They want to disband the police force? There can't be anything more lunatic than this. A country such as the United States won't be able to function without the police force. This is pure insanity.

From what I have seen, the pandemic is affecting the blue states more than the red states. Even in the red states, the impact is being felt more on counties where the African-Americans, Hispanics and Amerindians make up substantial portion of the population. A few examples are Hancock County (GA) with 3.5 deaths per 1,000 people and McKinley (NM) with 2 deaths per 1,000.

Yes some democrat politicians support defund the police. However, there are some moderate democrat voters who are protecting historic landmarks and denounce the politicians that support the destruction of the extreme left. They might begin to support Trump, I reckon.

[STT]

I cannot agree. I reckon that what might work for Donald Trump might be a disastrous blunder for the campaign of Joe Biden.

Thats observable in 30 seconds I'd say, plain and simple Biden already was the President, vice but still his name is on the ticket and he is part of that administration so I'm sure his campaign has no plan to attempt to approach this as some kind of underdog or outsider type attack vector.     He should have been running in 2016 so its a clear point against him from the start that he is late here, cant remember if this late vice attempt for a run has occurred before.   I didnt think I'd actually see it happen tbh but in this chaos its a minor detail.

Trump from what I heard of the two is clinging like a dog with a bone to this underdog narrative and its nonsense at this point and a reason for failure, but without any better plan perhaps thats still his best chance.   If I hear drain the swamp or similar comments without thought I know he is scratched record skipping on repeat and nobody is actively doing anything there to steer this.  I'm still going to guess the precedent is with reelection not a challenger, not the polls directly but the economic figures might be the best guide to the result in November.

[yazher]

Things does not look good for 2020 as we all are gong through pandemic situation. Also, this would now be the major thing for the Trump and the people as vote will swing based on the handling of this major event. Rest of the other things done in last 2 years may still be considered but Corona has hijacked the rest of the things. And this does not look good as highest cases and deaths are in US only and no other nation is as close as where US stands currently with Corona patients.

Trump has no chance of winning if we see how he has handled the current situation but you will not know the result until it comes. also, these people will not suspend the election amidst the Corona Pandemic crisis because they have different settings of voting. you don't need to go out from your home to vote for your desirable candidate if I'm not mistaken you only need to vote with your phone. unlike in our country, you need to go to the specified places to vote. where you will be gathered with all of the people which will make things worse because there will be no social distancing anymore.