US Presidential Election 2020

[bbc.reporter]

Also, it is stupid to assume that Trump suggested to people to ingest disinfectants. Stop listening to mainstream news media.

Well, he didn't say: "Drink disinfectants, then you will be fine". But he speculated about internally use of disinfectanct being effective against the virus and that they should have a look at this matter - at an official, nation-wide televised, press conference. Every sane person is of course aware that this is life-threatening, but you will always have people, anywhere in the world, who will take that for real and just give it a shot. As a politician you just can't say such things, it's careless, because there is always that one dumb person, who will take everything for real and these people need to be protected. You put peoples life into danger and Trump should have known. There are cases, where people drank disinfectants now in the last days because of his weird speculations.

In Germany, if Merkel said such things, there is no way she would still be Chancellor the next day. I know the US is different and if Trump would walk on water, CNN would say, look, he can't even swim, but he crossed a red line there imo.

Can you post the video where he said this and how he said it? I reckon the mainstream news media have this craftiness of creating clickbait articles and spinning the real issues.

[tyKiwanuka]

Can you post the video where he said this and how he said it? I reckon the mainstream news media have this craftiness of creating clickbait articles and spinning the real issues.

I posted the link already earlier in this thread, it was at one of his pressers some days ago: https://youtu.be/QtgVxGkrX1Y?t=126

Background is, that the guy earlier in that video was talking about the lifetime of that virus on surfaces etc. and how disinfectants can help clean these surfaces.

[amishmanish]

Every sane person is of course aware that this is life-threatening, but you will always have people, anywhere in the world, who will take that for real and just give it a shot. As a politician you just can't say such things, it's careless, because there is always that one dumb person, who will take everything for real and these people need to be protected. You put peoples life into danger and Trump should have known. There are cases, where people drank disinfectants now in the last days because of his weird speculations

First off, I agree with you about Trump

However, as much as we want to give him a piece of our mind, we should also credit him with the benefit of doubt (maybe, a little less than usual). Really, what is the most widely used disinfectant in the world? Right, ethanol, i.e. alcohol, which people also happen to drink, surprise, and some in quite excessive amounts. Indeed, it is unlikely to help with the coronavirus, but technically, that makes Trump's comment not as insane or stupid as it sounds. I guess he should pay me for this loophole if he ever makes into the court docket for his long tongue

Why the hell would you want to give the benefit of doubt to the man who commands the biggest economy, the strongest millitary and has the best experts in the world, yet chooses to make such statements while having ignored classified memos regarding possibility of an infection since January.
This equivocation from the "educated, general public" is as bad as Trump's behavior and that is what empowers him. Every idiot has an opinion that does not mean that "technically, they are not an idiot". Also, you should know the concentration of pure alcohol in any of the alcoholic drinks that people actually consume does not approach the minimum 65-70% that it needs to be effective against viruses. Vodka will not be effective as a hand-santizer. It is amazing that more people are not grilling the idiot Trump on this. America, the wealthiest nation on earth has a million infections and over 63,000 deaths. It now accounts for over 25% of the worldwide deaths. Such a failure yet he continues to defend his statements and makes fool out of his own people by saying things like "Ohh, it was sarcasm for reporters like you".

In its rage against the elites, Americans let their leader get away with behavior that decent people anywhere in the world would not condone for even their school-going teenagers.

[deisik]

Every sane person is of course aware that this is life-threatening, but you will always have people, anywhere in the world, who will take that for real and just give it a shot. As a politician you just can't say such things, it's careless, because there is always that one dumb person, who will take everything for real and these people need to be protected. You put peoples life into danger and Trump should have known. There are cases, where people drank disinfectants now in the last days because of his weird speculations

First off, I agree with you about Trump

However, as much as we want to give him a piece of our mind, we should also credit him with the benefit of doubt (maybe, a little less than usual). Really, what is the most widely used disinfectant in the world? Right, ethanol, i.e. alcohol, which people also happen to drink, surprise, and some in quite excessive amounts. Indeed, it is unlikely to help with the coronavirus, but technically, that makes Trump's comment not as insane or stupid as it sounds. I guess he should pay me for this loophole if he ever makes into the court docket for his long tongue

Why the hell would you want to give the benefit of doubt to the man who commands the biggest economy, the strongest millitary and has the best experts in the world, yet chooses to make such statements while having ignored classified memos regarding possibility of an infection since January

Maybe because everyone should think for themselves?

Note that I don't defend Trump but if you look at the larger picture here (with no Trump in it), you will see that you can't have it any other way (give or take), i.e. if we assume that America is a true democracy (I know some are going to insta-challenge that assumption), you simply can't force people to stay at home like the Chinese authorities did. This is a pay, or payoff if you please, for letting people be what they want to be and do what they think most appropriate to do

If we insist on lasseir-faire and libertarian policies (which seems to be the accepted ideology in the crypto world), we should be ready for things like these. Reaching back to my post here, there is another saying in Russian -- "нeльзя быть нeмнoжкo бepeмeннoй", i.e. one cannot be a little pregnant, the message being that we should stick to our guns and not flip-flop at each turn of the wheel or roll of a die

[FIFA worldcup]

Also, it is stupid to assume that Trump suggested to people to ingest disinfectants. Stop listening to mainstream news media.

Well, he didn't say: "Drink disinfectants, then you will be fine". But he speculated about internally use of disinfectanct being effective against the virus and that they should have a look at this matter - at an official, nation-wide televised, press conference. Every sane person is of course aware that this is life-threatening, but you will always have people, anywhere in the world, who will take that for real and just give it a shot. As a politician you just can't say such things, it's careless, because there is always that one dumb person, who will take everything for real and these people need to be protected. You put peoples life into danger and Trump should have known. There are cases, where people drank disinfectants now in the last days because of his weird speculations.

In Germany, if Merkel said such things, there is no way she would still be Chancellor the next day. I know the US is different and if Trump would walk on water, CNN would say, look, he can't even swim, but he crossed a red line there imo.

Can you post the video where he said this and how he said it? I reckon the mainstream news media have this craftiness of creating clickbait articles and spinning the real issues.

He really said that and if i remembered he twitted it too. Although he does not mean to drink or inject the disinfectants, he told this in a lighter tone and smiley mood.

https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/newsfeed/2020/04/trump-suggests-injecting-disinfectant-treat-coronavirus-200427124512820.html

[tomahawk9]

So, earler today Joe Biden finally addressed the sexual assault accusation:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-denies-he-sexually-assaulted-a-former-senate-aide/2020/05/01/08d59662-8b39-11ea-9dfd-990f9dcc71fc_story.html

Now, I just noticed that the Democratic Nominee odds, specifically Cliton's, have gone from @11 odds to @10.00 in some bookies. sportsbet(.)au have Clinton @11.00, IIRC yesterday it was @15.00...Thoughts?

[tyKiwanuka]

So, earler today Joe Biden finally addressed the sexual assault accusation:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/joe-biden-denies-he-sexually-assaulted-a-former-senate-aide/2020/05/01/08d59662-8b39-11ea-9dfd-990f9dcc71fc_story.html

Now, I just noticed that the Democratic Nominee odds, specifically Cliton's, have gone from @11 odds to @10.00 in some bookies. sportsbet(.)au have Clinton @11.00, IIRC yesterday it was @15.00...Thoughts?

Well, Biden is under quite some pressure now and the Republicans/Trump haven't even started to fire yet Let's see, if they will do, because Trump has his own history of sexual allegations.
If not before already, this should be the point where it finally dawns on the Democrats, that they won't take over the White House with him as nominee. I expect the Republicans to be all over these accusations (at a later point) and the way Biden addressed this issue today was really pathetic and didn't give the impression of him being innocent.

Hillary's odds going down is then just the people speculating who would be the most likely nominee, if not Biden. If that would be Hillary ? I don't know, but certain people seem to like that option.

The markets are pretty interesting to watch during these times. You would normally think that these accusations against Biden would make Trumps odds go south, but no, they are stable. The markets know, that Biden has little chances against Trump, but otoh they also know, that any other nominee than Biden has very good chances to beat Trump. These diametral movements offset for the time being. Really curious to see how the markets would look like, if Biden stepped down from his presidential run.

[Vishnu.Reang]

LOL... So they are planning to replace Biden with Hillary? I don't know why they are doing this over and over again. Trump would have never won the 2016 elections, if the Democrats had fielded someone other than Hillary. They could have even nominated Kim Kardashian or Ron Jeremy, and still Trump would be tasting defeat. But then they had other ideas. They rigged the primaries and antagonized those who supported Sanders. The Bernie supporters stayed at home and Trump won because of that. Do they want a repeat of this, all over again?

IMO, Trump has zero chances of winning this year's elections. There is only one organization which can help him at this point. And the name of that organization is the Democratic National Committee.

[Captain Corporate]

 There is no way Biden wişş be replaced by anyone, not Clinton not anyone else they are going to nominate him no matter what. Sure he may not be a good candidate, they talk about how he raped someone but as far as I am aware it was sexual assault which is still HORRIBLE yet even if he raped someone, like literally RAPED someone, we are talking about someone who is still above Trump, do you realize how mental that is? Like literally a RAPIST is definitely by far a better candidate than Trump, hell a serial killer is better than Trump.

 However rest of the USA doesn't think so, and you know why? Because simply the "bad" democrats are working to gain themselves, and they are not thinking every day american, and thats true, Trump doesn't neither, dude basically is in it for himself, however reality is they are still voting against democrats because social progressiveness and economical leftist moves are great and all but where the hell is the outreach? Do you really think a single democrat politician ever went and talked with the people who are occupying michigan right now? None has done anything to change those people.


 So all in all we have one candidate that is by far the biggest idiot we have ever seen yet didn't really destroyed the nation in the last 4 years, almost went to war with Iran, almost did some silly stuff, but all in all 50 years from now USA would be just fine and not even changed a single second just because Trump was president, yes he is an idiot, yes he is a criminal, yes he should not be president at all, but him being president hurts just today and also he keeps saying idiot stuff and thats it, and the other candidate a rapist, a better president by far, smarter, yet he will never talk to you or anyone you know because he is "above all that" and feels superior. So some people obviously pick the idiot because that idiot who is by far the worst president ever just goes and talks to them, not just personally but actually "speaks to them" in a way, which is why they would prefer the "worst president ever" that is theirs to pick, its their guy who will be bad but at least would be theirs, instead of a better president who would be some other level of politician as we all had many times.

[mindrust]

Democrats preferred another 5 Trump years instead of a communist president candidate, Sanders. Trump won the moment Sanders decided to step down. It is not like Sanders had any chance against him but it was far greater than what Biden had.

[bbc.reporter]

@mindrust. It is 4 years.

Also, I have not read a more uninformed post about Bernie Sanders than the communist characterization. He might be left wing, however, he is more reasonable than the other democratic candidates.

[mindrust]

@mindrust. It is 4 years.

Also, I have not read a more uninformed post about Bernie Sanders than the communist characterization. He might be left wing, however, he is more reasonable than the other democratic candidates.

That was tha humour. I know communists can't survive in the most capitalistic country ever existed.

Sanders is what you get that resembles communism.

That 5 should be 4 though, nice catch.

[pakhitheboss]

After looking into the present situation I believe Trump will not get reelected for a second term. I do not know what will happen in the next 3 to 4 months. But, if the current situation prevails then it is very hard for him to win the election.

Everyone in US is suffering because of the deadly virus and this situation has also crippled the economy. All of these are bad signs. If a  vaccine is out before the elections then Trump has the ability to change the mood of the nation.

[Captain Corporate]

 What is going is literally showing usa WILL have another 4 years of Trump. The whole world is staying inside, and USA is filled with people who are saying "virus is fake, go outside, pick up your weapons, rush to government office and threaten people with assault rifles!!" , yes I know that literally doesn't even make a single sense to anyone outside of USA but they are a pitiful country what would you expect.

 In the end you are going to have another trump but maybe that makes sense? Usa is kinda like trump, there are some decent people in there not gonna lie but everyone is probably a bit out of their minds. All you need to see corona spreading is just go to a hospital with symptoms and you will see all the other people in isolation and you will face the reality, there are thousands dead every day in the world, how the hell do you think NOBODY has seen people dying, there are plenty of regular folks who actually see the people who die.

 And responding to that with just a government office siege with assault weapons? Are you INSANE? I get the idea of having open carry and all of that, but you are basically going there with "either let us be or we gonna shoot you", deny that all you want but thats literally what it implies. I really really really really hope that if anyone goes to a government office with weapons to protest just gets military called on them and either shot or at least warned and their weapons taken, I do not hope anyone to die, thats always wrong in every reason, but they should be definitely warned harshly so that nobody would ever even dare to do it.

[bbc.reporter]

After looking into the present situation I believe Trump will not get reelected for a second term. I do not know what will happen in the next 3 to 4 months. But, if the current situation prevails then it is very hard for him to win the election.

Everyone in US is suffering because of the deadly virus and this situation has also crippled the economy. All of these are bad signs. If a  vaccine is out before the elections then Trump has the ability to change the mood of the nation.

I disagree. Trump's odds will improve.

The American people are scared and I reckon they will stay with Trump because of the fear that Joe Biden might worsen the situation. Also, where do you get your information? The mainstream fake news media are controlled by democrats.

In any case, what would be Trumps odds versus only Joe Biden? Who would the odds favor after the debates and campaigns? 

 

[Vishnu.Reang]

Democrats preferred another 5 Trump years instead of a communist president candidate, Sanders. Trump won the moment Sanders decided to step down. It is not like Sanders had any chance against him but it was far greater than what Biden had.

Sanders had a good chance of defeating Trump (I would say around 90%), but I would rather say that Biden is having a higher chance. Sanders is too far to the left, and the moderate voters in swing states may not like him. Biden is regarded as one of the center-left candidates, and he may be able to gain votes in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia.etc. Sanders is very popular among the youth and the Hispanic voters. But he trails among the black voters real bad.

[DireWolfM14]

@tyKiwanuka, great thread.  I can't believe I only just noticed it.

Democrats preferred another 5 Trump years instead of a communist president candidate, Sanders. Trump won the moment Sanders decided to step down. It is not like Sanders had any chance against him but it was far greater than what Biden had.

Sanders had a very well marketed campaign, but his popularity wasn't main-stream at all.  Most Americans don't want a socialist president, and even if they got one, his powers would be limited.  Any socialist policies he would try to impose would have to be approved by Congress and the Senate.  In Sanders' case he would have no support from Republicans (of course) and very little from Democrats.  A Sanders administration would be mired with decent from both houses, and be rendered largely ineffective.  Assuming he could have beat Trump, anyway, which I highly doubt.

In any case, what would be Trumps odds versus only Joe Biden? Who would the odds favor after the debates and campaigns?

The polls seem to favor Biden, but polls are wrong more often than not.  In reality polls are a joke, often posing questions designed to illicit the response the pollsters want.  I really believe that Biden doesn't have a chance against Trump.  I think the Democrats are starting to see it as well.  I doubt they'll give the nomination to anyone else, but I think they are desperate to find a strong running mate for him.  I wouldn't be surprised if they are negotiating with Cuomo, who seems to be the Democrats' Darling Du Jour.

[figmentofmyass]

Well, Biden is under quite some pressure now and the Republicans/Trump haven't even started to fire yet Let's see, if they will do, because Trump has his own history of sexual allegations.
If not before already, this should be the point where it finally dawns on the Democrats, that they won't take over the White House with him as nominee.

never say never. everyone thought trump was toast after the "grab em by the pussy" saga. look where we are now! if the economy tanks into the election, people aren't gonna be loving trump.

I expect the Republicans to be all over these accusations (at a later point) and the way Biden addressed this issue today was really pathetic and didn't give the impression of him being innocent.

it didn't take long for republicans to pile on about the sexual misconduct allegations. check out trump's latest campaign ad: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/05/01/trump_campaign_ad_hits_biden_on_tara_reade_allegation_believe_all_women.html

the odds i'm seeing:
trump 48% to win
biden 41% to win

https://odds.watch/trump-2020

a lot can change in 5-6 months though, especially in this pandemic atmosphere. i truly wonder if another democrat might emerge, if only because of biden's apparent health issues.

[Gyfts]

Democrats preferred another 5 Trump years instead of a communist president candidate, Sanders. Trump won the moment Sanders decided to step down. It is not like Sanders had any chance against him but it was far greater than what Biden had.

Sanders had a good chance of defeating Trump (I would say around 90%), but I would rather say that Biden is having a higher chance. Sanders is too far to the left, and the moderate voters in swing states may not like him. Biden is regarded as one of the center-left candidates, and he may be able to gain votes in swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia.etc. Sanders is very popular among the youth and the Hispanic voters. But he trails among the black voters real bad.

Where are you pulling the 90% figure from? Sanders was leading Trump in polls but those polls were taken with many democratic candidates in the field. This tends to over inflate the poll numbers because there isn't media scrutiny or attacks from the opposition against the candidate until they become the clear nomination.

Right now, Trump is getting a bump in the polls because of the whole Reade situation but also because he's probably suffering dementia. If Sanders were to be in his place, he'd be hounded for his policies being overly socialized. No candidate is immune to oppo research and that includes Sanders.

[famososMuertos]

Biden! really if he had not received Obama's support to win, his delegates were literally called to vote for him, but as they mention in the OP under the scheme of a system that left out "Bernie" and not  the worst candidate for president "Biden."

As the matter goes from "elections" to a bet If it was "Bernie" vs Trump: "Bernie"
Now in the current plane "Biden" - "Kuomo" - "Other" vs "Trump": Trump..

My potodds:
Only 4 presidents have not been re elected from 1900.
In the past elections, his candidacy induces Democrats and Republicans its laughs. This election year "concern"